PMI Project Estimating
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Transcript of PMI Project Estimating
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Project Management InstitutePractice Standard for Project Estimating
Asep Nurul Haq, S.T., PMPProposal Coordinator
© 2010 McDermott International, Inc. All rights reserved.
Month, YearP.T. McDermott Indonesia
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Preface
This presentation is prepared as reading notes prepared as backup for PDU claim required to maintain writer’s PMP
Writer also wish that this reading notes be useful to others interested in understanding estimating from PMI’s perspective
Content is extracted from PMI Practice Standard for Project Estimating (here forth referred to as “The Book”). All rights reserved.
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The Book’s Table of Content
1. Introduction
2. Principles & Concepts
3. Prepare to Estimate
4. Create Estimate
5. Manage Estimate
6. Improve Estimating Process
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1. Introduction - Definition
Estimate – A quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome.
Project Estimating – The act of creating a quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome. It is usually applied to:. Activity Resource
Activity Duration
Costs
Baseline – An approved plan for a project, will be compared to the actual performance.
Continue improving/ detailing a plan or estimate as more information is received is called “Progressive Elaboration”
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2. Principles & Concept
Continue improving/ detailing a plan or estimate as more information is received is called “Progressive Elaboration”
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Estimating Life Cycle
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Causes of Estimating Variances
Variance is the difference between baseline vsactual cost
The causes are: Evolution of requirements
Approved change request
Operational Problems
Faulty Estimating
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Basic Characteristics of a Good Estimate
Clear identification of task
Broad participation in preparing estimates
Availability of valid data
Standardized structure for the estimate
Provision for uncertainties
Recognition of inflation
Recognition of excluded cost
Independent review of estimates
Revision of estimates for significant project changes
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3. Prepare to Estimate
1. Inputs:1) Project Documents
Requirements documentation
Scope baseline
Activity list
Risk Register
Resource Calendar
2) Experts
3) Estimating Techniques (analogous/ parametric/ bottom up)
4) Constraints and Assumptions (scope/ duration/ cost)
5) Additional Influences (organization process assets/ enterprise environmental factors)
6) Historical Project Information (past project effort/ schedule/ cost/ resources/ documentation)
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3. Prepare to Estimate (Cont..)
2. Activities: Create Project Estimating Approach1) Scope of Estimate
2) Organizational Process Assets
3) Project Work Information
4) Estimating Assumptions
5) Constraints
6) Estimation Techniques
7) Resources Needed to Estimate
8) Estimate Confidence
9) Contingency Reserve Planning
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3. Prepare to Estimate (Cont..)
3. Outputs: Estimating Approach & Estimating Information
4. Considerations: Allocate appropriate time to plan
Proper Stakeholder Expectations Management
False perception of level of accuracy (round numbers to avoid this!)
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4. Create Estimates
1. Inputs1. Project Estimating Approach
2. Estimating Information
3. Estimators
4. Enterprise Environmental Factors
5. Organizational Process Assets
2. Activities1. Analogous/ top down estimating -> little info, less precise, faster
2. Parametric -> more info, more precise estimate, slower
3. Bottom Up -> complete info, most precise estimate, slowest
3. Outputs: Completed Estimate and Basis of Estimates
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4. Create Estimates
4. Considerations1. Optimism in Estimates
best man best day?/ no rework?
2. Progressive elaboration of estimates
fine tune as more detail is available
3. Cost-Schedule interrelationship
change in schedule = change in cost
4. Normalization of historical data
time/ location/ different type of project?
5. Accounting for time
inflation/ escalation?
5. Expert Judgment
consult the expert to validate estimate
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Estimating Techniques
1. Analogous EstimateUsually used to develop early and rough estimates of the project, appropriate when there’s significant similarity between proposed project and historical data
1. Ratio Estimating -> project cost = n x cost of deliverable (i.e. material, equipment, manpower, etc)
2. Power-Series Estimating -> project cost = (ratio of deliverable)n x cost
3. Range Estimating -> $$ < project cost < $$$
4. Three-Point Estimating -> cost = (low + 4 x mid estimate + high)/6
2. Parametric Estimate ->
Cost = vol of work x unit rate
3. Bottom Up EstimateEstimating to lowest level element of WBS, known as work package and then rolled up to project level.
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5. Manage Estimates
1. Inputs1. Baseline Estimates (project cost, schedule and resource histogram)
2. Approved Changes (approved change order)
3. Resource Plan (human / facilities/ equipment resource plan)
4. Work Performance Information (compare to actual cost)
5. Organizational Process Assets (company project control procedure?)
6. Project Estimating Approach
2. Activities: Manage estimates
3. Outputs1. Updated Estimates
2. Updated Forecast
3. Updated Change Request Log
4. Reporting and Communication
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6. Improve Estimating Process
Build up benchmarking from: Competitor’s price
Project historical data
Lessons learned from: Miss bids
Estimating process
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Q&A