Plug-In Electric Vehicle Policy Models and Benefits for ... · PDF fileOhio Green Energy...
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Plug-In Electric Vehicle Policy Models and Benefits for Ohio Sam Spofforth, Executive Director (614) 884-7336 [email protected] Ohio Green Energy Policy Conference April 7, 2016
Transcript of Plug-In Electric Vehicle Policy Models and Benefits for ... · PDF fileOhio Green Energy...
Plug-In Electric Vehicle Policy Models and Benefits for Ohio
Sam Spofforth, Executive Director (614) 884-7336
Ohio Green Energy Policy Conference
April 7, 2016
About Clean Fuels Ohio
Fleet Analysis & Consulting
Legislative Outreach & Policy
Ohio Green Fleets
Events & Networking
Plug-In Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are
Part of Solution to Many Problems
Climate Change… Smog… Grid Capacity (Especially
Renewables) Underutilization… Excessive Peak
Demand… Energy (Petroleum) Insecurity… Export of
Dollars for Oil… and More.
Regulatory policy is needed in
order for PEVs to be a solution.
PEVs Held Their Own
Easy to Operate, Quiet, Clean
But Limited Range
Gasoline ICE Cars Dominated
Market by Late 1910’s
PEVs Round 1:
Early 20th Century
PEVs Round 2—1990s, 2000s
ZEV Mandate in
California (1990, 1998)
Popular with Owners,
but Low Sales (Lease)
Volumes
GM Recalled & Crushed
All EV1 Cars in 2003
Meanwhile… Toyota,
Honda Brought HEVs to
Market in 2000s. GM Impact PEV Concept Car:
1990
GM’s EV1, Ford Ranger EV, Chrysler TEVan, Toyota RAV4 EV, Honda EV Plus, Nissan Altra
PEV Round 3: 2010 to 2016
Nissan Leaf
2011 First Model Year:
Pure Battery EV
1st Gen: 85-90 Miles Range
2nd Gen (2016): 107 Miles
Range
Sales Down Compared
with Volt in 2016
Chevy Volt
2011 First Model Year: “Extended Range EV”
1st Gen: 35-40 Miles All-Electric Range
2nd Gen (2016): 53 Miles All Electric
Sales Up, Down, Up Again in 2016
3,987 Through March
Tesla, Ford, BMW, Cadillac, Mitsubishi, Porshe, Volvo Sell PEVs Nationally.
PEVs Round 4: 2017 to ?
Chevy Bolt Tesla Model 3
Nearly every OEM plans to sell (multiple) PEV models nationally.
Ranges Up…. Prices Down.
• Introduction Dec 2016
• Pure Battery EV – 200 Mile
Range
• Cost $37,500 Before Fed Tax
Credit*
• Introduction Dec 2017
• Pure Battery EV – 215+ Mile
Range
• Cost $35,000 Before Fed Tax
Credit*
The Future Looks Bright for PEVs!
#1: Battery Costs Going Down Fast
#2: To Own a PEV is to Love It
Top 3 Cars in 2015
Consumer Satisfaction
Ratings are PEVs:
1. Tesla
2. Chevy Volt
3. Nissan Leaf
Volt: Highest
Satisfaction Rating of
Any GM in History
The “Tesla Effect”
Economic Benefits of PEVs
PEV Owners
Utilities/Rate-Payers
Ohio’s “Macro” Economy
PEVs are Great Deal for Owners…
and Can Be Even Better
Energy Cost Comparison:
PEV vs. ICE
ICE Energy Costs
Assume 25 mpg
Assume gasoline @
$2/gal
Energy Cost =
$.0.08/mile
PEV* Energy Costs
Assume 3.3 mpk
(miles/kWh)
Assume electricity
@ $0.12/kWh
Energy Cost =
$0.04/mile
PEV energy cost is roughly half of ICE vehicle. Not bad.
*2016 Nissan Leaf
Looking Behind the Numbers
One gallon of gas = 33.7 kWh (energy equivalency)
Thus… @ $0.12/kWh = $4.04/GGE
However… PEVs are about 4X more energy efficient
Example PEV (2016 Nissan Leaf) – EPA fuel economy rating of 114 MPGe
Estimates Don’t Include Lower Maintenance Costs for PEVs
What If We Paid True Cost of
Energy with TOU/TOC Rates?
ICE Energy Costs
Assume 25 mpg
Assume gasoline @
$2/gal
Energy Cost =
$.0.08/mile
PEV Energy Costs
(Off Peak Rate)
Assume 3.3 mpk
(miles/kWh)
Assume electricity
@ $0.04/kWh*
Energy Cost =
$0.015/mile
That’s less than 20% of the energy cost of ICE vehicle at $2/gal.
*Actual Off-Peak Rate From ConEd today is only 1.34 cents/kWh
Future (Med. Term) Value:
Connected PEVs as Part of Grid
Modernization …
Vehicle to Grid (V2G) or Grid
Integrated Vehicles (GIVs)
V2G/GIV Value and What is
Needed
Value is estimated at around $4,000 per year per car.*
Depends on energy market, hardware, software, battery
Needs:
Connections for Stationary EVs (Batteries)
Vehicle Hardware/Software
OEM Warranty Issues
Aggregators
Also Market for Batteries Out of Useful Vehicle Life
PJM Gets It! Reduced Minimum to 100kW (~20 PEVs)
Estimates vary, but $4,000 comes out of University of Delaware, which has
led R&D efforts.
PEVs Benefit Utilities and ALL Rate-Payers… Even Those Without a PEV
PEVs are an Important Part of Overall
Efficiency and Grid Modernization Effort
Capacity Utilization of the Grid
Net Revenue for Utils from PEVs
Overnight Charging Adds Revenue with No Appreciable Cost to Grid; Net Revenue is Produced
Macro-Economic Benefits
Gasoline:
Ohioans Weekly Gasoline Spend: $228 million*
Most of that wealth was exported from state.
Electricity:
Consumers would spend less than half on electricity
PEVs, perhaps 20% or less off-peak.
Most dollars spent on electricity stay within Ohio.
PEVs are potential $100 Billion national market for
utilities.**
*Derived from EIA figure for total U.S. figure based on
Ohio’s percentage of U.S. total population.
**Based on EIA data; assumes $0.10/kWh ave. rate
Climate Impacts of PEVs vs. Others:
Today, where you plug in matters.
Three Market Barriers to
Plug-In Electric Vehicles
Initial Purchase Price Lack of Charging Infrastructure Lack of Consumer Awareness
?
Barrier:
PEVs Still Cost More
to Purchase Initially.
Solutions:
Utilities: Use portion of PEV net revenue to
provide PEV purchase rebates.
State Government: Offer modest tax credit.
Federal Government: Extend fed tax credit.
PEV Incentives Examples
$750/vehicle incentive for
consumers (capped at 250)
$750/vehicle incentive for
dealers
Florida:
$500 - $1,000/vehicle
depending on battery
capacity
Loans for 60 months at
0.5% Interest on PEV
Problem: Consumers Not Paying
Market Rates Based on Time of
day
Problem:
Undifferentiated Electricity Rates Based on Time of Day
Consumers Pay More Than They Should
Charging Not Optimized to Utilize System Capacity
Solution:
Utilities Offer Time or Use (TOU) or Time of Charge (TOC) Rates
TOU/TOC Examples
Offers 3 Rates Including
“Super Off-Peak”
Whole-House Rates – No
Special Meter Needed
Indianapolis
Offers 3 Rates Including
Peak, Off-Peak, Mid-
Peak; Fleets and
Residential Eligible
Michigan
Offers 2 Rates: Peak,
Off-Peak
Separate Meter
Required
Barrier:
Inadequate
Infrastructure for
Charging and PEV
Connectivity
Solutions:
Utilities: Leverage PEV Net Revenue to
Incent Charging Installations
Local/State Gov’t: Provide Matching
Funding (e.g. CMAQ)
Where is Connectivity
Needed?
Certain Types of Residences
Workplaces
Corridors (Fast Charging)
Destinations (Retail, Medical,
Recreational, Other)
Infrastructure Incentives and
Installation Examples
California:
$45 Million to
Increase EVSE by
3,500 and fund
education
Michigan
16 Public Fast
Charging Stations
Northern Indiana:
EVSE Credit up to
$1,650; free off-peak
charging (separate
meter also free)
Texas: 50% rebate up
to $1,500 for EVSE
Barrier:
Consumers Poorly-
Informed About
PEVs…
Solutions:
Incentivize Dealers
Grassroots Education –
Driving Experiences and Interactions
Marketing Campaigns
Funded by Utilities Based on PEV Net
Revenue, and Gov’t
?
Consumer Education Examples
Education Campaign Examples
Illinois (Dept of
Pub Utilities):
$22M (fed/local)
for infra upgrades
to allow Smart
Charging
Florida:
Funding and
participating in
educational info
and outreach
Northern Indiana:
Partner w/ local Clean
Cities for funding and
info for home charging
Next Steps
Partner with Utilities (IOUs, Munis)
Work with PUCO on Policies to Allow
Investments:
Vehicle Up-Front Cost
Infrastructure
Consumer Education
Leverage Funding from Additional Sources
