Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin...

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Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
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Transcript of Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin...

Page 1: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro Millionaire

Wednesday, March 14, 2010

The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST

Page 2: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Global Impact of the Japanese Earthquakeand the huge trading opportunities it creates

Emergency Strategy ReviewProfiting from disaster

Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 14, 2011

www.madhedgefundtrader.com

Page 3: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

The Collapse of the Japanese EconomyThe loss of the world’s third largest economy

*Millions in Northern Japan are without food, water, and heat in freezing temperatures. Stores in most major cities have been cleaned out of food and gasoline.

*Japan’s rail system has shut down. Tokyo subways have stopped running. No one can get to work.

*Most of industrial Japan has shut down to count the dead

*Severe power shortages mean rollingblack out in the industrial heartland.No quick comeback for the economy.

*Mass evacuation of expatriates fleeing a nuclear melt down is underway.

Page 4: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Japanese Government Response

*The BOJ has been ordered to “save Japan”

*The largest intervention in the history of the foreign exchange markets

*$186 billion of dollars bought, yen sold in the first hour

*Could mark a 15 year top in the yen

*Quantitative easing expanded to $500 billion

*Ramping up the printing presses

Page 5: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Macro Millionaire Performance

• February +3.98% March month to date

First 14 weeks of Trading+ 20.61%

• Versus 10.5% for the S&P500

Page 6: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Portfolio ReviewBuilding More Aggressive Shorts

5 out of 6 positions will do well, and no. 6 (Yen) may turnPerfectly positioned to benefit from the current crisis

Asset Class BreakdownRisk Adjusted Basis

equities (1) -5.00%Volatility (2) 5.60%Yen (3) -26.00%bonds -5.00%Euro (4) -5.00%oil -2.50%

total -37.90%

10%

11%

53%

10%

10%

5%

Portfolio Risk Weightings1 2 3 4 5 6

Small is beautiful

Page 7: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Our Japan Positionstop loss at $14.85 = ¥79

$186 billion of BOJ Intervention in the first hour

Page 8: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

The Last Yen Peak Was After the 1995 Kobe Earthquake

Page 9: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

The Earthquake’s Global ImpactThe earthquake that is shaking financial markets around the world

*Slower economic Growth world wide

*A stock market crash in Japan

*Flight to safety bid for bonds and the dollar

*Sharp sell of in commodity prices.

*Global electronics parts shortage

*The “RISK OFF” trade is in play

Page 10: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Equities

*The world’s third largest economy is flipping from +2% quarterly growth to -3%

*All company earnings forecasts have been rendered meaningless

*No one had a giant destructive earthquake or a nuclear melt down in their budget for 2011

*”RISK OFF” = sell stock

Page 11: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

S & P 500 (SPY)the 50 day moving average is brokentaking a run at the 200 day average

Page 12: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Volatility (VIX)watch the higher lows and the higher highs

Page 13: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Two Year Volatilitystill looks cheap

Page 14: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Oil *Slower global growth brings less demand for oil

*The Middle Eastern picture is calming

*Supply glut in the US futures long in Chicago is 6X Oklahoma storage take delivery, or sell

*Will Obama open the strategic petroleum reserve? This market the last two peaks in oil prices

Page 15: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Oil (USO)50 day moving average at $95 oil, 200 day at $90

Page 16: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

The Position You’re Glad You Don’t HaveJapan Equity ETF (EWJ)

Page 17: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Bonds

*Flight to safety bid is on

*Recovery of an oversold condition that has built up in the last six months

*Profit taking on shorts by hedge funds

*Head and shoulders bottom onthe charts

*Trading rally only the 20 year bear market in bonds has only just started, but will take a rest

Page 18: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Page 19: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Commodities

*Slower economic growth means less demand for industrial commodities

*Hedge fund profit taking on major long positions

*Auto related commodities like platinum (PPLT) and Palladium (PALL) are especially hard hit.

Page 20: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Copper ETF (CU)

Page 21: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Palladium (PALL)

Page 22: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Trade Sheet

*Stocks-Keep your shorts, the earthquake will give us some downside juice*Bonds-Look for a rally and short volatility*Commodities- Selling off continues, earthquake delays recovery*Currencies-sell the yen and euro, flight to safety bid for dollar*Precious Metals- avoid, have run too far, possible short play setting up again*Volatility-Run your longs, still rising*Real estate-dieing a slow death

Page 23: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Follow This Letter!

*Buy and hold is dead, trade or die! Don’t rush into the market now, wait for the market to come to you

*Now is the time to rely on a newsletter where the writer speaks Japanese and has 40 years of experience in Japan

*Learn which long term trends will reassert themselves

*Volatility will remain high. Learn how to maximize your gains while limiting your risk

*Market timing is crucial, I will send email alertson when to move

*The black swans are coming

*Know which instruments to trade

Page 24: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com

March 31, 2011 New York City, 12:00 noon

April 28, 2011 Phoenix, Arizona

Page 25: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

European Strategy Luncheons

April 4, 2011 London, England 12:00 noon

April 8, 2011 Paris, France 12:00 noon

Page 26: Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST.

To Access my Research Data Base Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com