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JSWGroups

SeshagiriRao

April 2012

PricesaresettofirminearlyQ2,butdemandandpriceslikelytoweakenbeforeholidayperiods

WatchGMOEditorMark

Wiggettexpandonthis

monthsforecast.

Visit sbb.com/media/toview

allthevideoreports

Coil Regional Review

Pg 5

Long Product Review

Pg 7

Scrap Review

Pg 8

Plate Review

Pg 7

Global Overview of Production

Pg 9

Formoredetailsvisitwww.sbb.comorcall+442071763800

Available soon!

view!

TheEurozone

crisis

has

eased

slightly,

though

concerns

could

re

emerge

at

any

time

and

any

unforeseen

eventcouldactasatrigger.ThispossibilitycontinuestoaffectbusinessconfidencethroughoutEurope

andislikelytodosoformonths.However,theeurohasstrengthenedagainstthedollarsinceearlyinthe

newyear.Thishasalready increasing the levelof imports intoEuropeand isa trend that is likely to

continueforthenextsixmonths,aspricesarecurrentlyattractive.

Theeconomicpictureelsewherearoundtheworldhasimproved.InNorthAmerica,economicdataand

indicatorshavebeenmorepositivesince late lastyear.Beinganelectionyear,which isusuallygood

newsfortheUSeconomy, isalsohelpingandsomesectorssuchasautomotiveandenergyaredoing

especiallywell.

Economicgrowth inAsia is steadyand steeldemand sinceChineseNewYearhas improved slightly.

Whilethis

should

continue

during

Q2,

sentiment

is

still

generally

cautious.

The

Chinese

economy

continuestogrow,ataslightlymoremodestratethaninrecentyears,butsteeldemandandoutputare

only slowly returning to levels seen a year ago. Some sectors, especially construction, are being

constrainedwhilethecentralgovernmentappearsreluctanttoloosenitspursestrings.

However,apparent consumptionglobally isnow closer to realdemandand stock levelsarebackat

realistic levels as buyers were more cautious than when they overstocked in 2011. Drawdown of

Chinese inventorieshasnotbeenasquickasat this time lastyear.Production levelshave increased

sharplyinFebruarycomparedwithDecember,asdidJanuarysoutputaftersomesignificantrevisionof

ChineseandKoreanproduction.

In US, flat products prices appear likely to rebound upwards after another round of increases by

ThekeyquestionisforhowlongproducerscanmaintainslightlyhigherpricelevelsduringQ2beforetheseemingly

inevitabledropinactualdemandinthesummer.

STEADYDEMANDFORFLATSINUSMEANSSLOWLYRISINGPRICESEARLYINQ2,WHILEEUROPEANPRICESSHOULDALSORISEASSUPPLY

DEMANDBALANCEIMPROVES,COILPRICESINASIASHOULDIMPROVESLOWLY.LONGPRODUCTSPRICESARELIKELYTOFIRMINQ2IN

EUROPEANDUS,UNLESSSCRAPPRICINGDROPSANDAFFECTSSENTIMENT.ASIANLONGSLEVELSSHOULDALSOGAINANDSCRAPPRICES

ARELESSLIKELYTOFALL.

ConnuedonPage2

Global Overview

Pg 4

GMOVideoMarketSenmentSurvey

Steel Price Outlook Expec tations in Marc h (For Next 3 Mo nths)

50%

25%

25%

30%

46%

24%

23%

39%

38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Increase

No Change

Decrease

% of Respond ents

North America

Europe

Asia & Middle East

Source:TheSteelIndex

http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/

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April 2012

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producersarrestedthedeclineinMarch.InEurope,spotflatspricescouldkeeprisingduring

early Q2, though mills need to ensure real demand is matched by actual output levels

throughoutQ2.Longproductspricing inmaturemarketsshouldcontinuetobefirmunless

demandfallsorweakeningscraplevelspushpricesdown.

Asianpricesshouldbefirmorrisinginatraditionallystrongquarter,whileChineselevelswill

alsogain,

as

demand

increases

and

stock

levels

are

drawn

down.

TheMiddleEastmarketsforlongproductsareslightlyfirmerwhichencouragedexportersin

Turkeytopushforhigherprices,thoughthesewereonlyachievedinafewmarkets.Export

prices for CIS products, both flat and long, have also strengthened after early March

weakness,asdemandimprovedinkeyexportmarkets.

ScrappricesgainedduringMarchexceptinUSAwheretheyremainedstable.Pricesusually

dropatthestartofQ2asbetterweatherleadstohighercollection,butinternationaldemand

in Turkey, IndiaandAsia is keepingexport levels firm. Ironoreprices slowlybut steadily

increasedinMarchalthoughChinesebuyershavebeencautiousintheirreturntothemarket.

Oreprice levelsare likelytocontinueto increaseslowly inthenextfewmonthsso longas

Chinesesteelproductionremainsatcurrentrates.

Thelikelyscenariosforthenextthreemonthsare:

USflatsspotpricesarelikelytoriseslightlybutwillnotbesustainedthroughoutQ2

andcouldweakenby theendof thequarter.Realdemand is likely tobe firmdue to the

generaleconomicimprovement,but increasingproductionlevelsandimportscould leadto

marketweakness.

NorthernEuropeancoilspotpricesare likelytoriseduringAprilandearlyMay,but

cautiousbuyersdestockingaheadofthesummershutdownsandgrowingimportswillmake

furtherincreasesmoredifficult.Outputlevelshaveincreasedafterbeingcutbackattheend

oflastyearand,ifthiscontinuesduringQ2,priceswillfallasoutputexceedsactualdemand.

SouthernEuropean flatproductsprices remained steadyduringMarch,buthigher

productionlevels

have

run

ahead

of

demand

preventing

the

small

increases

seen

in

the

north.DemandshouldcontinuetobefairduringearlyQ2but, ifmills increaseoutputand

importlevelskeeprising,producersmaystruggletoachieveanysignificantgains.

PricesofcoilsintoAsiahaverisenslowlybutconsistentlysinceJanuary.Sentimenthas

beenweak but improving, and demand should be strong during Q2. Prices are likely to

increasefurther inthesecondquarter,andshouldthenremainstrongerfor longerthan in

otherregions.

DomesticChineseflatspricinghasbeenfirmingduringlateQ1,anddemandisexpected

InEurope,spotflats

pricescouldkeeprising

duringearlyQ2,though

millsneedtoensurereal

demandismatchedby

actualoutputlevels

throughoutQ2

USflatsspotpricesare

likelytoriseslightlybut

willnotbesustained

throughoutQ2andcould

weakenbytheendofthequarter.Realdemandis

likelytobefirmdueto

thegeneraleconomic

improvement

http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.thesteelindex.com/http://www.t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8/2/2019 Plats SBB GMO Apr12 Trial

3/11

April 2012

Page 3www.platts.com/ SBB Co pyright 2012 by Plat ts, The Mc Graw-Hill Co mpanies, Inc .

PricesinAsiahaverisenslightly,inlinewithbillet

andscraplevels,andare

likelytoconnueto

increaseintoQ2

Pricesarestarngto

turnupwardsdueto

strikesandbadweather

inAustralia.Anyincrease

indemandinthenext

fewquarterscoulddrive

pricesupwards

Mostregionsshoweda

smallincreaseindaily

output,thoughactualEU

27produconrose

to improve furtherhavinggrown so far thisyearaboveend2011spoor levels.However,

output too appears to have rebounded upwards during Q1, though stock levels are

reasonable,andpricesshouldincrease.

Longproductspricingshouldbefirm inEuropeandUSduringAprilandMay,after

recentslightweakness.Demandmaynotriseashighasistypicalforthecomingconstruction

season,andpossiblyfallingscrappricescouldhaveadepressingeffectonpricing.Prices in

Asiahave

risen

slightly,

in

line

with

billet

and

scrap

levels,

and

are

likely

to

continue

to

increaseintoQ2.

Thespotmarket for63% ironoreshouldcontinue toriseslightlyafterthesteady

upwardsmoveduringMarch,withpricesfinishingthemonthatUS$148150/dmt.Pricesare

likely to firm furtherasmoreChinesebuyers restock.Shippingandweatherproblems for

suppliersshouldimprove,butIndianavailabilitywillfallasthemonsoonwillbegintoaffect

deliverieslaterinQ2.

IronorequarterlycontractcostsforQ1,JanuarytoMarch,haverisenslightlyfromQ4

levelsbutarenowwellbelowspotmarket levels.Customerscontinuetomovetocurrent

quarter,currentmonthorspotpricingwhichmorecloselymatchthefreemarket.

Scrappricescould fallduringApril inmostmarketsascollection rates riseas the

weatherimproves.However,exportdemandhasbeenstrongandcouldrisefurther,soprices

mayremainsteady.Europeandomestic levelsstrengthenedduringMarchandpricescould

remainfirm ifmilldemand increaseswhileexportsarestrong.Asianmillsscrapdemand is

likelytoincreaseoverthenextfewmonths,ifsteeldemandrises,whichshouldkeepprices

firmandabsorbanyexcessmaterialinEuropeandNorthAmerica.

SpotcokingcoalpricescontinuedtoweakenduringMarch,sendingcontractlevels

lower. However, prices are starting to turn upwards due to strikes and bad weather in

Australia.Anyincreaseindemandinthenextfewquarterscoulddrivepricesupwards.

Lookingaheadtothethirdquarterof2012,producers inUSandEuropewillbehopingto

keeppricesstabledespitetheanticipatedfallindemandaroundthesummerslowdowns.In

Asia,producerswilltrytoconsolidateanypricerisesachievedduringQ2,asofftakedoesnot

usuallyfallsignificantlyandproductionlevelsarelikelytobeinline.

WSAfigures

show

that

global

output

fell

by

3million

tonnes

(m

t)

in

February

compared

with

therevisedJanuaryfigureof122.2mt,whichisupfromthepreviouslyreleased116.7mtas

bothChineseandSouthKoreanproductionhavebeensubstantiallyrevisedupwards.Daily

productionrose4.2%asFebruaryisashortermonth.Chinesemonthlyproductionwasdown

slightlyto55.9mt,butthiswasa5.3% increase indailyratefromJanuarysrevisedoutput

and the twomonth total shows a rise of 2.2% from last years output. South Korean

productionforJanuarywasalsorevisedupwardsby339,000tonnes.

Mostregionsshowedasmallincreaseindailyoutput,thoughactualEU27productionrose.

Actualmonthlyproduction fell inTurkey,CIS, IndiaandNorthAmerica,whileotherAsian

countriesandSouthAmericamaintainedtheiroutputlevels.Thegrowthinglobalproduction

sofarin2012is0.6%above2011,andtheyeartodatetotalis241.4milliontonnes.

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8/2/2019 Plats SBB GMO Apr12 Trial

4/11

April 2012

Page 4www.platts.com/ SBB Co pyright 2012 by Plat ts, The Mc Graw-Hill Co mpanies, Inc .

Stockholderdemandwill

onlybeforreplacement

oractualdemandas

restockingappears

complete.Enduser

oakeshouldimproveat

thestartofthesecond

quarter

Produconlevelshave

rebuiltsharplyin

February,butthe

strongercurrencyand

beerpricelevelsarelikelytohavearacted

moreimportmaterialfor

arrivalnowandinthe

nearfuture

Millswereunableto

increaselevelsfurtherin

March,buttheycould

nowriseagaininAprilif

Asianmarketsimprove

GLOBALOVERVIEW

USflatsspotpricesmoveddownwards

duringMarch but anotherUS$ 30/st

announced increase in midMarch

held prices steady. However, the

actual price increases were notaccepted by buyers, but transaction

levelswillmoveup slightly from the

startofApril.Stockholderdemandwill

only be for replacement or actual

demand as restocking appears

complete. Enduser offtake should

improve at the start of the second

quarter.

In Europe, prices have risen strongly

sinceJanuary,buttheincreasesstalled

inMarchandproducersnowhaveto

pushagaintosecurehigher levelsfor

AprilandMay.OfftakeisstillfairinAsiaandflatsandlongspriceshavebothmovedslightly

upwardsduringMarch.Sentiment isslightlybetter,butthere isstillanairofcautionfor

mostbuyers.DomesticChinademand for flatshasbeen firmerduringMarch,but rising

outputhaskeptpricessteadyandinventorieshavenotbeendrawndownasquicklyasthis

timelastyear.

Longproductsconsumptionisnotasstrongaswouldbeexpectedfortheseason,butprices

have risen steadily during March. Chinese export prices have risen slightly following

regionalmarketslevels,butattemptstosecurehigherlevelswereinitiallyunsuccessful.

InUS,pricesforcoilproductsfellduringMarchbutanotherproducerincreaseappearedto

stopthe

spot

market

dropping,

though

prices

had

not

begun

to

increase

by

the

end

of

the

month.Production levelsremainedhigh inFebruary,andseem likelytocontinuetorise in

March.Platepricesrosebutthenweakenedagain,whilerebarproducerskeptpricessteady

afteracceptingthedecreaseatthestartofMarchasthescrappricingmechanismdropped.

Prices for flat steel products in European markets rose slowly during March. European

producershave achieved theirQ1price increases,but apparentdemand is likely to slow

down. Stockholders are not likely to restock, and there may even be some destocking

activity before the end ofQ2. Further

smaller increasesappear likelyforApril

and maybe May bookings. Production

levelshave rebuilt sharply inFebruary,

butthe

stronger

currency

and

better

price levelsare likely tohaveattracted

more import material for arrival now

andinthenearfuture.

Prices for HR coil in Asia increased

slightly, and CR andHDGalvanised coil

prices also rose by similar amounts

duringMarch.Theyareallexpected to

rise further as offtake should improve

duringQ2.FlatproductspricesinChina

have increased slightly thanks to

stronger

demand,

but

some

mills

have

announced unchanged list prices for

AprilandMay,whichmayputacapon

the spotmarket. Export prices for flat

Graph1

HRCoilUS$/t

Graph2

European Coil Euro/t Ex-works

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