Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems
16
Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems Apple, Android Facebook and Amazon fight for the future of mobile Benedict Evans / [email protected] / +44 7880 786 727 / @benedictevans February 2012
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Apple, Android Facebook and Amazon fight for the future of mobile
Transcript of Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems
Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems Apple, Android Facebook and Amazon fight for the future of mobile
Benedict Evans / [email protected] / +44 7880 786 727 / @benedictevans
February 2012
The post-‐PC age?
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jun-‐09 Sep-‐09 Dec-‐09 Mar-‐10 Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11
PC versus smartphone: quarterly unit shipments (m)
Smartphones PCs Tablets [Source: Enders Analysis, Gartner]
The ecosystem wars
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 3
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10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-‐09 Jun-‐09 Sep-‐09 Dec-‐09 Mar-‐10 Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11
Global quarterly smartphone unit sales (m)
Nokia smartphones iPhone Android (e) RIM [Source: Apple, Nokia, RIM, Enders Analysis]
Apple and Android are selling to different customers
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Units sold (m
)
ASP ($)
Q4 2011 global smartphone & tablet performance
iPhone Android iPad Android tablets (premium) RIM Nokia smart iPod Touch * October: Bubble size = revenue [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]
Polarisation of the broader handset market
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 5
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Units shipp
ed (m
)
ASP ($)
Q4 2011 global mobile handset business
Nokia Samsung Motorola LG HTC iPhone RIM SonyEricsson Other Bubble size = revenue [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]
Apple’s blow-‐out quarter, led by two inventions: the $650 phone and a tablet people want
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 6
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Mar-‐08 Sep-‐08 Mar-‐09 Sep-‐09 Mar-‐10 Sep-‐10 Mar-‐11 Sep-‐11
Apple quarterly revenue by segment ($m)
Macs iPod iTunes & related Other iPhone iPad [Source: Apple]
Android or Samdroid?
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011
Quarterly Android unit sales (M)
SE Motorola HTC LG Samsung [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]
Tablets power ahead
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11
Quarterly tablet unit sales (m)
iPad Android (premium) Android (basic) Kindle Fire [Source: Apple, Google, Amazon, Enders Analysis]
Is Apple now the world’s largest PC maker?
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Apple Windows Apple Windows Apple Windows Apple Windows
2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4
Apple versus the PC industry: quarterly shipments (m)
Macs iPad HP Other [Source: Apple, Gartner]
Over 30bn app downloads
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 10
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
May-‐08 Dec-‐08 Jun-‐09 Jan-‐10 Jul-‐10 Feb-‐11 Sep-‐11 Mar-‐12
Cumulative downloads (bn)
iOS Android [Source: Apple, Google]
Every quarter each Apple user spends $3 on the app store and downloads 15 apps
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Sep-‐08 Mar-‐09 Sep-‐09 Mar-‐10 Sep-‐10 Mar-‐11 Sep-‐11
Quarterly app store downloads per live iOS device
[Source: Apple, Enders Analysis]
Jostling for position, building user bases
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apple Android Amazon Facebook mobile apps
Active installed base, Q4 2011 (m)
Phones iPod Touch Active users Tablets [Source: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Enders Analysis]
Facebook’s mobile empire
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 13
iPhone app 12% Android app
11%
RIM app 6%
Other mobile app 8%
Using mobile web but not apps
13%
Not using mobile 50%
Facebook's 845m user base (December 2011)
[Source: Facebook, Enders Analysis]
Amazon isn’t a books company:å Kindle and Kindle Fire as routes to sell TVs
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 14
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Dec-‐09 Mar-‐10 Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11
Amazon revenue by segment ($m)
North America Media North America General Merchandise
International Media International General Merchandise [Source: Amazon]
The splintering of Android
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 15
Perhaps 280m Android
devices sold
250m ‘activated’ devices (i.e. connected to
Google services) 10-‐20m in
China with no access to paid
apps in Android Market
Over 50 third-‐party app stores
Many of the most
successful apps use their own in-‐app payment
Fragmentat-‐ion and poor
store execution drives sales
down
Fragmentat-‐ion makes
development much more expensive than on iOS
>50% of the base is on an obsolete version
The opening battleground
App stores and ecosystems, February 2012 16
Apple, 37.0, 9%
Android, 54.5, 13%
Microsoft, 1.0, 0%
Symbian, 19.0, 5%
RIM, 10.0, 2%
Non-‐smart, 300.0, 71%
Mobile handset volumes (m), Q4 2011
[Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, RIM, Enders Analysis]
Mac, 5.2, 5%
iPad, 15.4, 13% Android
tablets, 6.8, 6%
Windows PCs, 87.0,
76%
Combined PC & tablet volumes (m), Q4 2011
[Source: Apple, Gartner, Enders Analysis]
