Plant Science 102 Fall 2012

Guest Lecture Larry D. Makus

Agribusiness Program Agricultural Economics and Rural Soc.

9 Billion-People Question

• Why is it a question? – Can we feed 9 billion people by 2050!

• Should we as potential agribusiness professionals care about this question: – If not, why not? – If so, why should we care?

• How are we doing now, and why are we performing at that level?

Articles to read: (posted on course web-site)

• 9 billion people question:

– The Economist, February 26, 2011 • World Feed itself:

– Interview with the Chairman of Nestle – Wall street Journal, September3-4, 2011

World Hunger Introduction

Sources: The State of Food Insecurity 2011 (FAO)

World Hunger Education Service 2011 Growing a Better Future 2011 (Oxfam)

The World Food Problem (2009, Leathers and Foster)

World Hunger Facts • Worldwide, about 1 billion

people are undernourished • Don’t get enough calories

each day – Susceptible to illness – Unable to lead productive

lives • Chronic undernourishment

– Due to extreme poverty

http://www.ehponline.org/docs/2004/112-14/hungry.jpg

Undernourishment 1969-2011

World Hunger Spike: Since 2008

• Poorest cannot afford food – Food prices up

• Increased demand from emerging countries

– Economic development

• Population increase • Biofuels production • Reduced crop production

– Climate change

– Recession

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/faohome/home_photo/image_home_en.jpg

Rising Food Prices

World Hunger Facts

• Over 20,000 people die each day due to causes related to undernutrition

• ¾ of these are children under the age of 5 – About 6 million/year

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2005/06/30/poverty_wideweb__430x387.jpg

Undernutrition and Child Death

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/a0200e/a0199e.pdf http://rehydrate.org/images/child-deaths-undernutrition.gif

Common Scenario • Mother

– Poorly educated – Food is scarce – Several children

• Youngest child – undernourished – Disease resistance low – Drinks unsanitary water – Develops diarrhea – Loses interest in eating

http://static.flickr.com/73/193642829_3da338122c.jpg

Common Scenario

• Mother removes solids from child’s diet – Not enough nourishment

to fight disease – Diarrhea continues

• Mother removes liquids – Dehydration – Death

http://www.aa2sbu.org/aaezine/images/Fall2002/Starving_child_carried.jpg

Malnutrition Cycle

http://notaids.com/images/cycle.gif

Importance of Maternal Health

http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/a0200e/a0200e00.htm

1 in 6 babies in developing countries have low birthweight

Causes of Hunger

• Poverty – 2.3 billion people

earn less than $2/day

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2005/20050513/d.jpg

Causes of Hunger

• Extreme Poverty – 1.3 Billion people earn

less than $1.25/day – 75% of these live in rural

areas • many unable to own land

– Worst in Sub-Saharan Africa

http://www.thp.org/africa/1bapr1-360.jpg

Extreme Poverty Percentage who earn less than $1.25/day

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Percentage_population_living_on_less_than_$1.25_per_day_2009.svg

Causes of Hunger

• Harmful Economic Systems – Control over incomes

and resources by • Military • Wealthy • Politically powerful

• Conflicts

http://us-cdn.creamermedia.co.za/assets/articles/attachments/31567_i1683e.pdf

Where are the Undernourished?

World Hunger Map

www.feedingminds.org/ img/map_world.jpg

Sachs, J. 2005, The End of Poverty; Economic Possibilities for Our Time.

Worldwide life expectancy

http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif

Side effects of Hunger and Poverty

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/a0200e/a0199e.pdf

Population Pressure • World Population has

doubled in 40 years – Most of increase in

developing countries • 5 billion people

• Poverty and economic insecurity result in population growth – Children are a source of

wealth to the poor http://www.sustainablescale.org/images/uploaded/Population/World%20Population%20Growth%20to%202050.JPG

Hope: Demographic Transition • Example: U.S.

History – When U.S. became

industrial, fewer kids/family needed

• Lowered infant mortality

• No need to rely on children’s labor

• More opportunities for women

• Happened without birth control

http://bss.sfsu.edu/tygiel/Hist427/1920sphotos/fordassemblylinehist102.jpg

Agricultural Revolution

Hunters & Gatherers

Agriculture

Population Growth Technology

Conquest for land

Food production

Culture

Expanding population & environmental destruction

Effect of the Agricultural Revolution

Elite

Conquered & Exploited: Peasants, Slaves, Workers

Wealth, Tribute

Food, Resources

Wealth: Own land, Well-fed Educated, Health care, Opportunities

Poverty: Landless, hungry, uneducated, unhealthy, no opportunities

Effect of the Industrial Revolution

Sachs, J. 2005, The End of Poverty; Economic Possibilities for Our Time.

Issues

• Nutrition • Food Security • Agriculture • Environment • Technology • Education • Culture • Development • Ethics

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.resurgence.org/2005/egziahber233.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.resurgence.org/selection/egziabher1005.htm&h=350&w=350&sz=11&hl=en&start=15&tbnid=svh3od2uZpp9bM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=116&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfeed%2Bthe%2Bworld%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8

Ethics

• Is hunger and poverty morally acceptable?

• Why or why not? • What should we do?

http://www.whilechildrenstarve.org/images/starving-child-4.jpg