Planning Tools for Swine Health Emergency ResponseDavid Cornejo and Haleh ByrnePh.D. Candidate, North Carolina State UniversityNCSU Industrial Extension Service

2

Team members• Presentation Co-Authors:• David Cornejo- NCSU Operations Research• Haleh Byrne-NCSU Industrial Extension Service• Animal Science/Engineering Collaborators:• William Morrow –NCSU Animal Science• Larry Stikeleather- NCSU Bio & Ag Engineering• Craig Baird –NCSU Bio & Ag Engineering• Robert Meyer – Mississippi State, College of Veterinary Medicine• Darrel Styles – USDA Funding Acknowledgement:USDA APHIS cooperative agreement and a Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Division Interagency Agreement (System to Administer Inhaled Gases for Mass Depopulation of Swine in a National Emergency, Agency Reference Number: 09-9137-1280-CA)

Horia Varlan - Creative Commons, Flickr

3

Problem Statement•Major outbreaks of swine diseases are not

common, but are economically devastating. • Containment requires mass euthanasia.• Effective, humane euthanasia practices can

be developed and tested on a small scale.• Simulation can estimate the resources

required to scale-up process to disaster response proportions.

4

Outline•Background on swine health epidemics.• Summarize new, humane euthanization

method developed.•Present simulation model developed to

scale new techniques.•Demonstrate how model was utilized to

develop strategic and tactical decision aid.

5

Swine Health• Swine diseases• Foot and Mouth, Swine Flu•Aersolisable=Spread though the air•While pigs are alive generating more

aerosolized vectors.•Mass Depopulation allows containment.• Timely depopulation reduces total

morbidly and economic cost.

6

Effective Depopulation•Primary Goal: Minimize Time•Minimize • Resources required• Animal handling• Ensure proper disposal

7

New Depop Procedure1. Swine loaded onto trucks.2. CO2 gas pumped into containment.3. Burial

• Process tested and evaluated measured on small scale at research farm.Reference: Robert E. Meyer, W.E. Morgan Morrow, Larry F. Stikeleather, Craig L. Baird, J. Mark Rice, Haleh Byrne, Burt V. Halbert, Darrel K. Styles. Administration of carbon dioxide for on-site mass depopulation of swine in response to animal health emergencies. Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association 2014; 244(8): 924-933

• Create Simulation Model to determine resource requirements on disaster scale.

Jobs, Innovation, Growth, Stability www.ies.ncsu.edu

Simulation Model

8

9

Mass Depop Process•4 Distinct Stages•Moving pigs from house to loading slot• Loading pigs onto available farm truck• Preparing trucks and gasification• Disposal of carcasses•METRIC: Time to complete process.

10

Moving Pigs from house to truck• Influenced by following user inputs• Pigs: Number, Weight class• Houses: Number, Size, Loading Slot length•Workers: Number available• Variables affect Travel Time of run.• Calculated travel time parameterized travel

time distribution(stochastic travel time).

11

Using Time-in-Motion for Data Collection

•Walk speed data was collected using a Time-in-motion study.• Timer Pro was utilized to collect data

from videos of truck loading operations.•Multiple observations were used to

develop simulation distribution parameters.

12

Data that supports calculations•Weight classes

•Run Size/Walk Speed

Class Name Weight Range (lbs)Nursing ≤70Weaning 70-100Finishing ≥100Breeding Boar/Sows ≥200

Class Name Run Size 1 Handler Rate (ft/min)

Nursing 21 107.59Weening 9 209.975Finishing 5 240.385Breeding Boar/Sows

1 625.734

13

Load Truck• Pigs Loaded onto truck• Capacity of trucks from pig weight class

• Assumed 15 seconds to load each pig• Details• One or two loading slots available• Handler will wait with run until truck arrives

Class Name Space Requirement(sq. ft./pig)Nursing 1.09Weaning 2.635Finishing 3.48Breeding Boar/Sows 5.55

14

Preparing Trucks for Gas•Before each application of gas some

preparation (check tarp, attach hose etc.)•Assumed to take between 5 and 10 mins

with a mode of 10 mins•May physically take place at gas location.

15

Administer Gas•Applied for minimum of 5 minutes. May

take longer.•Applying gas consumes available stock. • Process halted when no more gas• Gas can be delivered on intervals.• Sublimation a way to extend gas stock

16

Dispose of Carcasses• “Dwell Time” of 10 minutes included in

minimum travel time to Disposal Site.• Assumes can travel immediately after gas•No particular time allocated to disposal• Trucks take time to return to loading slot

17

Statistics Monitored

• Time To Terminate: How long to cycle all pigs• Average Walk Time: Average Time spent with

Handler(until loaded on truck)• Accounts for walk time and queuing for truck• Average Time in Gas Process: From starting

to load until disposal.• Accounts for queuing at constrained gas resources

18

Parameters and Control Variables• Farm Parameters• Size of House• Size of Pin• Number/Length of Load Slots• Truck Controls• Truck Size• Number of Trucks• Handler Controls• Number of Handler• Handler Efficiency• Special Process Parameters• Dry Ice recovery process option

Jobs, Innovation, Growth, Stability www.ies.ncsu.edu

Planning Tools using Simulation

19

Simulation Model to Practical Tool• Simulation Model can optimize handler worker

combination given number of trucks for a specific scenario.• Disaster planners want to get estimates for a wide

array of planning scenarios or on the fly “what-if” scenarios.•Most interested in obtaining resource estimates to

complete the operation in a specified time window.• Farmers do not want to interact with the simulation

model.

21

Web App Solution• Best resource solution form a large array of

scenarios batch run in simulation model.• Results stored in database.•Web application exposes relevant controls

to decsionmaker and calculates resource requirements based on stored simulation results.•Web app runs fast (seconds) and requires

no specialized software.

22

Web App Screen Shot

23

Web App Output Page

24

Conclusion• Swine health disasters deserve advance planning.• Simulation provided a viable method for

estimating the requirements when scaling up a new process.• Data was collected through careful studies of

portions of current processes.• Results of simulation model were encapsulated in

web application.•Web application requires no special software or

training to use.

Jobs, Innovation, Growth, Stability www.ies.ncsu.edu

Questions?

25