Planning the unthinkable war AirSea Battle and its implications for Australia.pdf

7/30/2019 Planning the unthinkable war AirSea Battle and its implications for Australia.pdf

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StategyPlanning the unthinkable warAirSea Battle and its implications for Australia

Benjamin Schreer

april 2013


2/44

Dr Bejami Schreer

Dr Benjamin (Ben) Schreer is the Senior Analyst for Defence Strategy at

ASPI. Before he joined ASPI in January 2013, Ben was the deputy head ofthe Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) at the Australian National

University (ANU) where he continues to teach a course on strategic studies.

He has also frequently lectured at the Australian Command and Staff College

(ACSC). His current research focus is on Australian strategic and defence

policy, US AsiaPacic strategy, and strategic trends in Northeast Asia. Prior

to coming to Australia in 2010, Ben held the positions of deputy director at the

Aspen Institute Germany; leader of a research group at Konstanz University;

and deputy head of the research unit European and Atlantic Security at the

German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft

und Politik, SWP) in Berlin. He has published widely in both policy-oriented and

peer-reviewed journals.

Ackowledgemets

The author would like to thank Peter Jennings and Andrew Davies for their

invaluable feedback, and Ms Sheryn Lee for her outstanding research assistance.

Cover image: Chess pieces on chess board Imaginechina/Corbis.

About ASPI

ASPIs aim is to promote Australias security by contributing fresh ideas to

strategic decision-making, and by helping to inform public discussion of strategic

and defence issues. ASPI was established, and is partially funded, by the Australian

Government as an independent, non-partisan policy institute. It is incorporated as a

company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPIs core values

are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence.

ASPIs publicationsincluding this paperare not intended in any way to

express or reect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and

recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate

and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reect the personal

views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position

of ASPI on any particular issue.

Importat disclaimer

This publicatio is desiged to provide accurate ad authoritative iformatio i relatio

to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the uderstadig that the publisher is

ot egaged i rederig ay form of professioal or other advice or services. no perso

should rely o the cotets of this publicatio without rst obtaiig advice from aqualied professioal perso.


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Plai te utikable warArSa Bal ad s mplcas fr Asrala

Bjam Schrr

April 2013


4/44

Te Australia Strateic Policy Istitute Limited

This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright

Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical,

microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in

a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries

should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, Educational

Institutions (including Schools, Independent Colleges, Universities, and TAFEs) are

granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for educationalpurposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge.

First published April 2013

Published in Australia by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute

ASPI

Level 2,

40 Macquarie Street

Barton ACT 2600

Australia

Tel + 61 2 6270 5100

Fax + 61 2 6273 9566

[email protected]

www.aspi.org.au

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Facebook/ASPI.org

@ASPI_org

Schreer, Benjamin

Planning the unthinkable war: airsea battle and its implications for Australia /

Benjamin Schreer.

ISBN: 978-1-921302-81-7 (paperback)

Series: Strategy (Australian Strategic Policy Institute)

Notes: Includes bibliographical references.

Military planning--United States.

Deterrence (Strategy)

United States--Foreign relations--Pacic Area.

Pacic Area--Foreign relations--United States.

Australia--Foreign relations--United States.

United States--Foreign relations--Australia.

Other Authors/Contributors:

Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

355.033573


5/44

ContentS

exeCutive SuAy 5

CAte 1 8

irdc

CAte 2 13

Challgs

CAte 3 21

Asa alls ad parrs

CAte 4 31

Asrala ad ArSa Bal

eCoenAtionS 36

eeenCeS 37

AConyS An ABBeviAtionS 39


6/44

4 PLAnnIng Th nThInAL A: AiSeA BAtte An itS iiCAtionS o AuStAiA

ASi StAteGy


7/44

exeCutive

SuAy

As par f Amrcas rbalac wards h Asaacc rg, Asralas ms mpra all s rcsdrgs mlar psr dal wh Chas grwg aaccss/aradal (A2/A) capabl, whch s gradall

rdg Amrcas marm dmac h Wsr acc. Chas mssls ca w rach larg pars f h

rg. i rsps, h ag s wrkg a ArSa Bal praal ccp ha ams dr ad, f

cssar, dfa h Chs mlar. Whl fcall h ccp s argd agas a spcc cr

ad s applcabl lswhr (fr ampl, h Sra f rmz), h uS mlars crasd fcs Cha has

g h ccp mch prmc h sragc cmm.

th pal mplcas f ArSa Bal fr Asrala ar far frm ral. uS plcmakrs csdr Asrala

a k all h ccp, las bcas f r rlabl crb frcs cal pras. W ha a

majr rs spprg Amrcas rbalacg wards h Asaacc rg ad a crdbl uS warghg

srag as a drr agas a Cha has crasgl g s mlar mscls. wr, w als d

hk hrgh h pal mplcas f ArSa Bal. Afr all, hs s ab a pal mlar scala wh amajr clar pwr.

th Asrala sragc dba ab ArSa Bal, h dgr ha hrs b , has largl crd

ard w ppsg camps: hs wh s as a dagrs srm ca Cha ad pall drag

Asrala a clar scala bw h w gra pwrs, ad hs wh mbrac h ccps lgc

ad arg ha Asrala shld dlp lgrag srk capabls crb pal ffs

pras agas Cha. wr, s pssbl cm a mr acd ps ha rcgss h

pal bs f ArSa Bal whl als dfg s shrcmgs ad h prspcs ad lmas f

Asralas crb.

th sd addrsss sm k qss rlad ArSa Bal: is fasbl? s mak sragc ss?

w d k alls ad parrs nrhas ad Shas Asa w h ccp, ad wha rl cld h pla?Wha cld ad shld b Asralas spcc crbs ArSa Bal?

Chapr 1 dscrbs Chas grwg mlar capac ps a crasgl sphscad A2/A challg fr

uS frwarddpld frcs. Whl s mpra rsa h crr pwr prjc capabls f h

pls bra Arm (A), Cha has alrad chagd h mlar balac s ar sas, parclarl

h tawa Sra. th A ds d rach sragc par wh uS frcs. isad, s asmmrc srag

ams pr r cmplca uS rs rrral dsps b makg h pal css fr Amrca

frcs prhbl hgh. ArSa Bal ams a dfag sch A2/A srags b whsadg a al Chs

aack, fllwd b a bldg campag agas A cmmad ad crl wrks, a mssl spprss

campag agas Chas ladbasd ssms, ad a dsa blckad agas Chs mrcha shps h

alacca Sra ad lswhr. impral, s basd h assmps ha h scala ca b kp blw

h clar hrshld, ad ha Japa ad Asrala wll b ac alls hrgh h campag. ar frm bgjs a fac f ag plars, ArSa Bal has gad sal mmm ad rs sps wards s

mplma ar bg ak.


8/44


ASi StAteGy

Chapr 2 aalss h fasbl ad l f ArSa Bal. A cmm crcsm s ha h ccp mgh baffrdabl, g sr cs h uS dfc bdg. rr, rsrc ralr mgh bsrc majr

shfs f rsrcs. wr, dsp abl bdg cs, h uS mlar wll ms lkl b abl spd wll

r uS$450 bll ( das dllars) aall bw 2013 ad 2021, s sgca acal rsrcs wll b

aalabl fr ArSa Bal. th uS has alrad bg shfg sm f hs rsrcs awa frm h uS Arm

ad wards h na ad Ar rc. rhrmr, rsrc ralrs cld b mgad b crprag h

uS ars ad h uS Arm a bradr srag cr A2/A challgs.

th bggs qss ab ArSa Bal ar sragc. i prcpl, h a shld b wlcmd as a

wa srgh Amrcas cal drrc sas Cha b dlpg a ccp fr pras

marm zs csd b h A. rrc s basd prcps ab s ad capabls. A

Chs ladr wld d calcla h pssbl f a uS rac rsps a majr mlar ac

dsgd chag h sas q h Wsr acc. Ad, crar cal wsdm, sas g war r rpaal rss. ArSa Bal cld hs mak a crb rgal sabl b prmg

drrc SuS sragc affars.

tha sad, ArSa Bal s pmsd fr hghs cal war bw Cha ad h uS ad s alls.

i appls l rm cass, sch as a Chs aack tawa, A mssl aacks Japa r uS bass

h rg, r h skg f a Amrca arcraf carrr. wr, Chs crc mlar acs rrral

dsps wh s ghbrs (shr f hgh lls f scala) ar mch mr lkl. ArSa Bal s hrfr

a cach all sl Amrcas cal drrc dlmma h Wsr acc. rr,

s clar hw ArSa Bal s wh a bradr uS grad sragc framwrk dal wh Chas mlar

rs. As a rsl, h ccp sffrs frm a mag prblm, as ma bsrrs qa uS amps

mlarl ca Cha ad wdr ab h rlashp bw praal ad plcal bjcs. Aalss

ha hrfr calld fr h dlpm f a grad sragc framwrk gd uS Asaacc dfcsrag. Alls sch as Asrala shld prss fr a dclassd, alld rs f ArSa Bal ha a br

drsadg ab ag hkg.

ArSa Bal als facs h challg f a pal clar scala. A cral lm f h ccp s

h dp pra f Chs rrr dsr ad dsrp A cmmad ad crl ds sd fr

cal pras. B sch a bldg campag cld cras h rsk f a dsprpra Chs

rsps, cldg clar scala. Bjg mgh wll prc sch aacks as Amrca amps

dsarm Chas clar drr ad cld hs b mpd clar prmp. ths s mpra als

csdr alras dbad amg uS sragss, sch as ffshr crl, whch rfras frm drc srks

agas h Chs malad whl sll rag h capabl d Cha frdm f mlar ac s

marm apprachs.

Chapr 3 dscsss h pal rl f k alls ad parrs nrhas ad Shas Asa ArSa Bal.

n srprsgl, h rsl s md. i nrhas Asa, Japa ad tawa ar h ms cmfrabl wh h

prmss f h ccp, g ha hr frl sas ad dpl wrrd ab Chas rs ad s.

Japa, parclar, s mg acqr sgca ar ad marm capabl sppr s uS all h

f war. sp h fac ha Sh Kra has als bcm mr ccrd ab Cha ad has sard shf

s dfc plag mr wards marm pwr prjc, s mch mr ambal ab h ccp. is

ma bjc rmas dfd agas nrh Kra aggrss, ad s plcal dsps wh Cha ar f

mch lssr s.

Shas Asa alls ad parrs sm mr gardd, parl bcas s clar hw ArSa Bal

cld appl hr marm dsps wh Cha. th hlpps s plcall h ms sppr ad cld

brg addd al as a gsragc lca fr uS frcs. th ms p mlar pwr h rg sSgapr, whr h uS has w frward dpld lral cmba shps ad cld pall s aal bass

fr sbmars ad rpars. wr, Sgapr ds ha marm dsps wh Cha ad s ambal

ab hw wld rac ms f war. vam ad idsa cld als pla mpra rls h ArSa


9/44

7

ASi StAteGy

exeCutive SuAy

Bal ccp. wr, bh a ad Jakara ar als rlca b s b cls Washg. As arsl, plcal sppr fr lm ArSa Bal plag Shas Asa mgh b lw dsp rgal

crs lkg h uS sppr hr hdgg srags agas a mr assr Cha.

Chapr 4 aalss h pal mplcas f ArSa Bal fr Asrala. or plcal rlabl as a all,

r gsragc ps bw h acc ad ida cas, ad h hgh sadard f h A mak s a

prfrrd uS parr. i h w f sm prps, Asralas mamm crb cld cld:

prdg sragc dph fr h uS all (cldg b allwg h uS accss Asrala facls), ad

cdcg scalld sppr rargard pras, b prcg frwardprag rps ad alld

bass nrhas Asa, ad b dlpg a lgrag srk capabl pra Chs arspac

cdcg ffs amphbs srk pras h Shas Asa ad Sh acc archplags

aack Chs facls ad rps prag h ara

crbg prphral campags (ha s, parcpag h marm rdc f Chs mrcha

ad rg ssls hra Bjg wh a crpplg dsa blckad).

th Asrala Grm has a rs makg a ac crb h uS mlar rbalac.

rdg h uS wh grar sragc dph s mas d s. Whl h raal dplm f a uS

ar ArGrd task rc (AGt) arw s far has b largl smblc ad drcl d

Amrcas ArSa Bal plag, h AGt cmba wh lgrag Amrca srk arcraf prag

frm r rh cld bcm a gral cmp f sch a praal framwrk a Shas Asa

c. i h (hwr lkl) f a majr war nrhas Asa bw h uS ad Cha, Asrala

wld ms lkl allw s uS all pra frm Asrala rrr. A majr pgrad f AS Serlg hs

uS carrr srk grps r h s f Ccs islad arlds fr uS srk arcraf s als a fr p shld

h sragc rm drra sgcal. all, h A cld prd ch capabls (sch asakr arcraf, arbr arl warg ad crl, ad arbr lcrc warfar asss) ad backll fr uS

asss ld drc aacks.

tha sad, fll mbracg h lgc bhd ArSa Bal r dlpg spcc mlar capabls drp

h ccps mplma ar s far Asralas rss. opl sgg p fr h ccp wld

sd a srg plcal mssag Cha ha h A s w acl plag ad qppg fr a pal

war wh h A. thrs d d sh grms dcs h uS ars arw has

alrad dsplad Asralas plcal cmmm h AnZuS allac. th dlpm f lgrag srk

capabls agas Cha wld als b a cssar prca Bjg, l al a r csl .

kws, a srs Asrala amphbs srk capabl s a rahr ralsc prspc. all, a dsa

blckad agas Cha Shas Asa marm chkps (h alacca, mbk ad/r Sda sras) s

mch asr prpsd ha d. i a , sch acs wld b csdrd b Bjg as a ac f war. Sll,Asrala cld pla a rl sch pras, g r prm marm chkps ad r marm ad

ar capabls.

Asrala grms wll b abl mak a wrh mlar crb a uS ArSa Bal framwrk

dpdl f a pblc cmmm a ccp has sll s arl sags ad sms dsgd fr a

sragc rm Asa has marals.


10/44

CAte 1

irdc

th obama admsra has acd rbalac wards h Asaacc rg rassr alls ad

parrs ab Amrcas cmmm a ra f rla uS dcl ad Chas sragc rs. Csql,

h uS mlar has sard hk ab h mlar srag dd sppr hs shf. rsl,

s srag was basd s abl cmmad h cmms, whch ma ha hr pwr Asa

cld srsl cs h uS mlar h sa, ar ad spac dmas. nw, Chas mlar bldp s

gradall drmg Amrcas mlar prpdrac. th pls bra Arm (A) s dlpg a

cmprhs aaccss ad aradal (A2/A) srag, whch calls a crr srag.

ths srag ams a dg Amrca frcs h abl pra frl Chas ar sasa ara

sall rfrrd as h rs slad chab rsrcg dplms f uS frcs har (aaccss)ad dg h frdm f mm f uS frcs alrad hr (ara dal). B hrag srk a d

args sch as uS bass Japa ad Sh Kra, ad hghal mbl args sch as uS carrr srk

grps, A2/A ams dr r dla uS frcs rg a rgal cc, parclarl r tawa. th

sragc am s c sch damag uS mlar capabls ha h prspc f a prlgd ad csl

cc hr drs h uS frm ghg h rs plac r crcs dg h gh.

Whl h A sll has a lg wa g bfr ca challg h uS h wdr Wsr acc, s alrad

sgcal chagd h mlar balac h tawa Sra. i h lg rm cld dlp capabls

d s sragc rach h scd slad cha, whch clds uS bass Gam (gr 1).


11/44

9intouCtion

ASi StAteGy

Fiure 1: First ad secod islad cais

Src: dlld afr uS (2012a:40).


12/44


ASi StAteGy

As a rsl, h ag has sard hk ab

h hkabl: a mlar srag fr ghg ad

wg a pal war agas Cha.

As a rsl, h ag has sard hk ab h hkabl: a mlar srag fr ghg ad wg

a pal war agas Cha. th am s dr Cha frm sg mlar ac rsl dsps h

Wsr acc b sgallg bh rsl ad h capabl prjc pwr h rs ad scd slad

chas dsp h As grwg abl hld uS frcs a rsk. Srl, a SuS war l sms a rm

pssbl b wld b caasrphc fr h rg gral. n was war, b drrc srag fllws

a paradcal lgc: rdr dr war ad prsr h pac, h dfdr has sgal crdbl bh

ad capabl g war wh h pal aggrssr.

Te Petao pivots to te Pacifc

A h bradr sragc ll, h uS Grm has sgalld s srgh Amrcas mlar

prsc h rg. i Jl 2012, fs Scrar aa acd ha h uS wld assg

60% f h uS nas ssls wards h Asaacc, cldg s arcraf carrrs ad ms f s crsrs,

dsrrs, lral cmba shps ad sbmars. r capabls sppr hs w psr wll cld

fhgra mlrl 35 J Srk ghr (JS) cmba arcraf; hacd vrgaclass claraack sbmars; w lcrc warfar (eW) ad cmmcas capabls; mprd prcs

waps; w aralrfllg akrs; w lgrag salh bmbrs; ad adacd marm parl ad

asbmar warfar (ASW) arcraf.

rr, h 2012 efese Sraegc Gdacewd sr Amrcas abl pra ffcl A2/A

rms. t d ha, h uS na ad Ar rc had sgd a classd mm 2009 dlp a j

ArSa Bal ccp basd grag aal ad ar frcs prjc pwr csd zs agas a

adrsar mplg sphscad A2/A srags. th 2010 Qadreal efese eewfcall drcd h

dlpm f ArSa Bal, ad h ag sablshd a ArSa Bal ofc facla h ccps

mplma. r rcl, Chf f naal opras Admral Jaha Grr rmphassd a reg

lcarcl nmbr 2012 ha ArSa Bal was h k h uS nas p Asa (Grr 2012).

th pal mplcas f ArSa Bal fr Asrala ar far frm ral. is ab a uS srag gh a war

wh Cha ad, g r gsragc lca, h hgh sadard f h A ad r plcal rlabl as a

all, Asrala (algsd Japa) s dd uS sragc dba as a k ablr fr h ccp. of crs,

uS dfc fcals ss ha h ccps spccall amd a Cha, b hr cr has h abl

ad h wll ps sch a frmdabl A2/A challg Amrcas ladrshp h Asaacc rg. is

r hard dsagr wh Gffr tll:

sp frq prsas h crar, ArSa bal das ar abl asscad wh rahr

radal plcal assmps whch plcl df Cha as a pa adrsar ha ds b ffs

rdr prsr a sabl mlar balac h Wsr acc ad mr grall. (tll 2012:8384)

th A s mrgg as Amrcas dfal adrsar (bbs 2012), ad ArSa Bal s ab maag

SuS drrc dr sch cds.


13/44

11intouCtion

ASi StAteGy

at is AirSea attle?Whl h ags crr rs f ArSa Bal rmas classd, h 2012 J opraal Accss

Ccp prds a dald dscrp f hw uS frcs cld cr A2/A challgs (gr 2). th prcpal

gal s prd uS frcs accss ad frdm f mar csd ar ad marm zs. th m

s b drrd ad, f cssar, dfad hrgh a rag f ffs ad dfs masrs, cldg

aackg sphscad m A2/A ssms dph. ths clds srkg dp m rrr, as

wll as argg s spac ad cbr capabls. ghl grad armarm frcs wll pra acrss h

dmas f lad, ar, sa ad spac, sagg aacks frm mlpl r ps a har f pras.

Fiure 2: Multilayered atiaccess/areadeial eviromet

Src: uS (2012b:11).

ArSa Bal s ab prparg fr a cc wh a pr cmpr. Csql, h uS dba draws

frq aalgs h Arad Bal dcr dlpd drg h Cld War dr h S u frm

adg Wsr erp. th am was ffs h Warsaw acs mrcal adaags hrgh chlgcal

sprr ad w was f mplg frcs h balld. th Cr fr Sragc ad BdgarAssssm (CSBA), a al uS hk ak, has dlpd a scar fr h applca f ArSa Bal

a SuS mlar cc:

rs, h uS wld ccra whsadg al A aacks ad lmg damag Amrca ad alld

frcs. th wld h cdc a bldg campag agas A bal wrks ad llgc, srllac

ad rcassac (iS) ssms d h A saal awarss. uS carrr bal grps wld b

abl r h csd zs sppr a mssl spprss campag agas Chas ladbasd

mssl lachrs, srfacsrfac mssls ad spprg frasrcr. grag sragc srk

ad sbmarlachd waps wld als b sd dsr r dgrad Chas ardfc asss ad

sablsh uS ar sprr. i h f a prlgd cal cc, uS ad alld frcs wld cdc

fllw pras, cldg dsa blckads agas Chs shps hra Bjg wh cmc

sragla (a tl al. 2010).

Spac, lcrmagc spcrm, ad cbr aacks h ssm ad wrks

ha sppr dplm, mplm & ssam.

UNITED

STATES

US Partners

ADVERSARY

TERRITORY

ucal aacks

h ifrasrcr ha

spprs dplm,

mplm & ssam

thar

Ballsc

ssls;

Sbmars

Ashp

Ballsc

ssls;

Srfac

Cmbaas

/W Arcraf;

Adacd Ashp

Crs ssls

Aack Bas,

SrfacAr

ssls; /W

Arcraf; uAv/S

Gdd cks, Arllr,

rars & ssls

(GA); naal & ad

s; Grd ar

us; Aarcraf Arllr

Aaccss thras

Araal thras

Chmcal, Blgcal, adlgcal, nclar ad gh yld epls (CBne) aacks acrss h spcrm f pras.


14/44


ASi StAteGy

r spccall, sm f h grad arsa pras wld cld: uS Ar rc crspac pras bld h As spacbasd ca srllac ssms ad

pr argg uS na srfac shps, rdr g h a praal frdm mar

Ags dsrrs spplmg hr mssl dfc asss frward bass h Wsr acc

lgrag srk pras dsrg A grdbasd, lgrag marm srllac ssms ad

lgrag ballsc mssl lachrs pad h uS nas frdm mar ad rdc srks

uS ad alld bass

carrrbasd ghr arcraf rllg back A mad ad mad arbr iS ssms ad cmba

arcraf scr h frward pra f uS Ar rc akrs ad hr sppr arcraf

uS Ar rc arcraf spprg ASW pras hrgh ffs mg abl uS na shps cdc

dsa blckad pras.

Table 1: AirSea attle missio ad capability spectrum

Whsadg al aack nwrkg bldg ssl spprss Szg h a

ad ad sabasd

mssl dfc

rcs dal aack,

cldg prag

srk, cal

prmp glbal srk,

crs mssls

grag srk,

cldg w lgrag

bmbr, crs mssls,

mad/mad

cmba arcraf, w

salh prag iS

icrasg carrr

sadff ad rach

(mlmss mad

cmba aral ssm),

crs ad ballsc

mssl aack

sprsd basg offs ad dfs

cbr pras

rcs gdd

ms fr d,mbl rlcaabl, ad

hardd / dpl brd

args

ASW

ardg f slcd bass

(Gam, Japa)

Spac crl

pras

udrsa capabls

(SSGns/SSns/mssl

pds spprg

iS msss)

gra drsa

dma

apd bas rpar ad

rgra

dgg pras

spac

nw capabls fr bs

ad asc phas mssl

aack (arlachd

hkll ms)

Ar ad mssl dfc

icrasd rag ad

gsragc dph rdc

lrabl f bass

Arbr hdgg

pras

Arar rfllg

Src: Basd a tl al. (2010).

th CSBA rpr frhr assms ha Cha wll a armd hsls, ha mal clar drrc wll hld

drg a prlgd SuS cal war, ha Asrala ad Japa wll rma ac uS alls drg h

cc, ad ha Cha wll amp ach a qck cr.


15/44

CAte 2

Challgs

Crcs f ArSa Bal fcs hr k challgs: shrkg bdgs, sal hrdls ad lack f

sragc l. ths aalss sggss ha whl acal ad sal hrdls cld b rcm, sm f

h sragc assmps bhd ArSa Bal ar prblmac.

Is AirSea attle easible?

i h fac f a sr uS cmc crss, dfc bdg cs ar abl. i 2011, Cgrss passd h

Bdg Crl Ac, whch wll rdc dfc spdg b rghl 6% frm s plad ll h y 2013

acal ar ad b ab 10% frm prsl plad lls ach ar bw y 2014 ad y 2021. th

ag wll d sa a las uS$487 bll r h dcad, ad a pssbl sqsra hras

add a las ahr half a rll dllars ha.

n srprsgl, dmsda scars fr h uS mlar abd ad crcs f h obama admsra

alrad s ArSa Bal as dagrsl drfdd (Blmhal 2012). Accrdg sm sds, h

ag plas spd rghl uS$267.9 bll ArSa Bal prgrams bw 2010 ad 2016. Arcraf

wld acc fr r 60% f pss, wh h JS al prjcd cs ab uS$82 bll (Bsss

Wr 2012). Whl h ag has prd dals f h kds f ssms ad mbrs rqrd

mplm ArSa Bal, h msss ld ab allw h dca f k ablrs:

clarpwrd aack sbmars

lgrag prcs srk capabls, cldg a w lgrag salh bmbr

cbr, spac ad hr iS asss

srfac shps capabl f ballsc ad crs mssl dfc

ffs mg ad amg asss

ASW capabls

pass dfc f k uS ad alld bass, sch as hardg cmmad crs, cmmca ds ad

hagars, ad rwa rpars

ac dfc dsgd dsr m arcraf ad mssls, cldg hrgh arcraf, mssl, lcrc

warfar ad cbr pras.


16/44


ASi StAteGy

udbdl, rdcd dfc spdg wll ha a

mpac sm prgrams ssal fr ArSa Bal.

udbdl, rdcd dfc spdg wll ha a mpac sm prgrams ssal fr ArSa Bal.

Shpbldg s ampl: h uS na has alrad had adjs s shpbldg pla fr h 30 ars.

is lwrd h lgrm gal fr h r f shps frm 328 bw 310 ad 316, rdcd h mbr

f shps b prchasd frm 275 268, ad acd ha wll b 17 mr hghd cmba shps ad

24 fwr lssps sppr shps. s lkl, h mbr f dsrrs wll fall blw h gal f ab90 afr 2029; aack sbmars wll fall blw h gal f ab 48 bw 2022 ad 2034; ad clar ballsc

mssl sbmars wll fall blw h gal f 12 14 bw 2029 ad 2041 (uS 2012c). rr, hrll

b dlas h csrc ad prcrm f ssms sch as h scd rdclass arcraf carrr;

h scd Amrcaclass amphbs assal shp; h clarpwrd ohclass sbmar rplacm,

h SSBn (x); ad h w vrgaclass clarpwrd fas aack sbmar (SSn).

wr, dlas sch hghd plafrm acqss ar h rm rahr ha h cp. Ad a slgh

rdc plafrms w sgcal chag h SuS aal balac f pwr larg pars f h

Wsr acc fr q sm m. th A na s lkl cls h larg qala gap bw Cha

ad h uS aras sch as drsa warfar ad ASW (C 2011), ad s a lg wa frm dlpg a srs

blwar a. As frmr fs Scrar br Gas has pd , s mpra kp md ha

as mch as h uS na has shrk sc h d f h Cld War, fr ampl, rms f ag, s bal s sll largr ha h 13 as cmbdad 11 f hs 13 as ar uS alls r parrs (uS

2009). th uS na wll hs b abl prd sgca capabl a ArSa Bal framwrk. is als

crasd spdg sabasd mssl dfc ad ddcad mr rsrcs lss sbl aras, sch as

appld rsarch fr drsa warfar.

A scd crcsm s ha h uS mlar cld d p wh far fwr JS cmba arcraf, whch ar dmd a

crcal ArSa Bal capabl. arl fr bdgar rass, h Ar rc has dfrrd h acqs f h

arcraf. rr, h mbr f 35As (cal akff ad ladg) b acqrd b h Ar rc

l 2017 has b rdcd frm 203 166. th plad acqs f shrrag, accal 35Bs (shr

akff ad rcal ladg) fr h uS ars drg h sam m prd s c frm 50 41. all, h

carrrbasd ara, h 35C Cv fr h uS na, has b rdcd frm 72 37 (Blmhal 2012:329).

wr, hs prjcs ar l basd a frar framwrk, ad r h lg r h srcs wllprbabl ha a sgca mbr f JSs hr rs.

r ggraphcal rass, bass fr h ladbasd 35A nrhas Asa wll b rahr lmd ad sbjc

Chs ar ad mssl aacks (placg a prmm hardg bass ad rwa rpars). thrfr,

h carrrbasd 35C Cv ara mgh b mr rla a ArSa Bal c, parclarl f h

bjc s ach ar sprr r malad Cha. rr, lgrag sragc bmbrs ad

sbmarlachd crs ad ballsc mssls arg Chs arlds ad lachg ss wld b

mr crcal, ad h Ar rc s crrl sg w KC46A akr arcraf fr aral rfllg ad a

gra lgrag salh bmbr, srghg cal prmp glbal srk capabls, ad

w iS ad cbrspac acs. i h fr, uS frcs cld als s carrr ad ladbasd mad

cmba aral hcls, sch as h wl dlpd x47B.

is ssal p h plad uS bdg cs prspc. gr 3 shws ha h sgca grwh

Amrcas dfc bdg sc 2001 has largl b h rsl f rsg praal css rlad h wars

iraq ad Afghasa.


17/44

15CAenGeS

ASi StAteGy

Fiure 3: S deece spedi compositio, 19622013 (2005 S$)

$0

$100 billion

$200 billion

$300 billion

$400 billion

$500 billion

$600 billion

$700 billion

$800 billion

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Year

Weapons/procurement Operations (e.g. war conduct) Research and development

Construction

Personnel pay and housing

Nuclear programs Other

Spending(

2005d

ollars)

Src: lmr (2013).

Wh hs wars cmg a d, sm dcl dfc spdg s abl. B hrs sll a csdrabl

gap uS dfc spdg sas Asa crs, cldg Chaad hs ds cld alls

dfc spdg (gr 4).

Fiure 4: S ad ast Asia deece budets, 2013

Korea, North1.0%Singapore

1.3%

Korea, South

3.2%

Japan

6.2%

China, P. R.18.7%

United States

65.7%

Src: Sgr (2012).

Crcs mgh sa ha h uS has glbal rspsbls. B f h rbalac Asa s dd a prrfr Washg, mr mlar asss ad spdg ca b assgd h rg. rhrmr, f

sqsra wr ccr, prjcd uS dfc spdg bw 2013 ad 2021 wld sll b sbsaal

(tabl 2).


18/44


ASi StAteGy

Table 2: Projected S deece spedi, 20132021 (S$ billio)

y13 y14 y15 y16 y17 y18 y19 y20 y21

rsds y13

bdg rqs

525.4 533.6 545.9 555.9 567.3 579.3 592.4 605.4 617.9

bdg dr crrl

plad sqsr

485.7 475.2 488.7 499.2 511.6 524.0 536.5 549.8 563.2

Basd arrs (2013).

tr, dpdg whhr h prjcs ar har dllars, uS dfc spdg cld wll b a

r h dcad. Sll, hr wld b gh m spd ArSa Bal capabls, prdd uS

lawmakrs ad h ag prrs dfc acqs accrdgl.

A scd sal ccr rlad ArSa Bal s rsrc ralr. G ha fcss hal h

uS Ar rc ad na, h ars ad h Arm arall s as a hra hr w fdg. A ral

assssm b h uS ars ccldd 2012 ha mplmg h ccp wld b ps ad

sragcall sd. Ad h Arm has b a pas d a rl wh h ccp. rr, a rpr b h

Cgrssal sarch Src d ha h nas fcs r ps plafrms sch as h w class

f arcraf carrrs mgh b drmal cmprhs ffrs cr Chas A2/A challg:

arclarl a sa f csrad rsrcs, f gh fdg s allcad h na prm

h na cmg ars maa a f ab 313 shps cldg 11 arcraf carrrs, hw mch

wld hr prgrams d b rdcd, ad wha wld b h praal mplcas f hs

prgram rdcs rms f s rall apprach cr mprd Chs mlar frcs ad hr

msss? (ork 2012:51)

sp agrg prcpl h mprac f ArSa Bal, h na ad Ar rc cld hrfr als

cmp fr scarcr rsrcs.

orcmg sal barrrs ArSa Bal w b as. akg h ccp a plcal prr dpds

plcal wll Cgrss ad h Wh s. wr, as Cha kps mdrsg s mlar ad

dg s sragc rach h Wsr acc, uS sragc plcmakrs wll ms lkl bcm

mr alarmd ab wha h prc as a Chs qs fr ladrshp Asa. rhrmr, rsrc

ralr cld b mmsd b assgg h uS ars ad h Arm a rl a bradr srag dfa

A2/A hras. r ampl, AGts sch as h arw cld pla a rl scrg crcal marm

chkps Shas Asa. Csql, arch 2012 bh srcs dlpd hr w dcral

crb prag a A2/A rm (uS Arm ad uS ar Crps 2012).

Does it make strateic sese?

Amrcas rgal alls ad parrs, cldg Asrala, ha bcm crasgl wrrd ab

Washgs wll ad capabl cr h As grwg capac prjc mlar pwr ad cs

marm spac. th ha mch ga frm ArSa Bals pal srgh cal drrc

rsps Chas grwg mlar pwr. ArSa Bal s ma sgal uS wllgss ad abl

prjc mlar pwr hs csd zs dfd alls ad parrs as a crb a w ssm

f cal drrc sas Cha. As d has pd a rc ASi sd, drrc

Asa has b plad rahr casl ad rml ( 2012:23). i rdr jpards h p

fr dpr gagm wh Cha, h uS has msl rfrad frm makg plc drrc cmmms,

parclarl rgardg rrral dsps. i las as ambgs h cds dr whch wld s

mlar frc agas Chs aggrss a rrral r hr cc.


19/44

17CAenGeS

ASi StAteGy

Argabl, sch a psr f ambg has s far srd w prpss. rs, s s far add makg Cha hplc adrsar f uS drr plc whl lag sm cra h mds f Chs dcsmakrs

ab h cds dr whch h uS wld rsr frc. Scd, s mmsd h rsk ha alls mgh

fl mbldd ak mr rsk acs rrral dsps wh Cha h assmp ha h uS wld

cm hr sppr, rdcg h lklhd f h uSs rapm wad ccs r a damagg lss

f rpa cas f uS r.

wr, s dbaabl whhr hs apprach s sll fasbl h fac f a Cha has crasgl sg h

rsl f h uS ad s alls marm dsps. Bjgs prbg srags h Sh Cha Sa ad h

Sa f Japafr ampl, rc ccs wh h hlpps r h Scarbrgh Shal ad wh Japa

r h Skak/a isladsla alls wdrg ab h cds dr whch h uS wld dfd

hr rss. A k challg fr uS srag s hrfr hw addrss h pal crdbl prblm f

Amrca dfc cmmms f alls far abadm rrral ccs wh Cha whr h uS lhas rpaal rss a sak. r ampl, sm uS cmmars db whhr Washg wld

dfd tawa h cas f a Chs aack (bbs 2012). Ad h hlpps mgh wdr whhr h uS

wld sppr h cas f a mlar scala h Ws hlpp Sa.

ArSa Bal ffrs a paral sl hs dlmma. i sgals Amrcas wllgss sa gagd

h rg hrgh a srg mlar prsc ad f cssar mps sgca css rsps

cal aggrss b h A. A Chs plcal ad mlar ladrshp ds calcla h pal

css f a rs srk agas a uS arg, d r aa. Wld Bjg srsl bl h uS wld rala

afr h A has srck (r sk) a Amrca arcraf carrr r aackd uS bass Japa? Wld h uS

back dw afr a Chs srk Gam? ssbl, b hghl lkl.

... apar frm prcg uS cmc rss h

Asaacc, h crdbl f uS ladrshp Asa

sgcal dpds h pcas f alls ad

parrs ha h uS wld cm hr dfc...

Crcs mgh arg ha h uS has l rpaal rss ms Asaacc ccs ad wldrad s Agls fr tap. tha cld b r, b Chs ladrs wld ms lkl als csdr thmas

Schllgs fams dcm f h hra ha las smhg chac. idd, apar frm prcg uS

cmc rss h Asaacc, h crdbl f uS ladrshp Asa sgcal dpds h

pcas f alls ad parrs ha h uS wld cm hr dfc h f a cc wh Cha.

alr d s, fr ampl h cas f tawa, wld dal a dasag blw h uSs rpa ad

drrc crdbl. Ad crar cal wsdm, sas hrgh hsr ha f fgh wars

fr far f a lss f rpa (rcr 2010). rr, wld Cha rall aack a Amrca c wh clar

waps h kwldg f alms garad ahla hrgh uS clar rala?

wr, ArSa Bal fcss h hgh d f h cc spcrm. y, hr ar l a fw scars whch

h hra f a hghs cal rsps agas A aggrss appars crdbl: a Chs amp

ad tawa, a A prmp aack alld rrr r uS bass, ad a srs aack uS frcs aa.s hr mlar ccs lg Chs frcs wll prbabl l mch lwr lls f scala. i hs

cass, ArSa Bal facs a rpwr prblm. i a prs Arad Bal rm, h rggr was bs:

S rcs adacg acrss wlldd lad bdars Wsr erp. trpwrs ar mch lss clar

a mal marm rm h Asaacc, whr rd ls ar mch mr arbrar.


20/44


ASi StAteGy

rr, ArSa Bals Cha dms has ld a mag prblm. As a mlar praal ccp, ssppsd crb a bradr uS grad srag fr dalg wh Chas sragc rs. As SuS ralr

has sd, a mbr f Amrca aalss ha calld fr a mlar cam srag sas Cha,

ad has cral h wa Chs aalss ha rprd h rbalac ad h ArSa Bal ccp

(xag 2012). S far, h obama admsra has mphassd ha s Cha plc s basd cam

b slc gagm. ths s cral ra cmprhs dplmac, cmc ad mlar

cam f Cha s hr fasbl r dsrabl. Ad uS Cha plc s mch mr acd ha sm

Wsr bsrrs ar prpard ackwldg.

wr, h absc f a uS grad srag ha ls h cral pllars fr dalg wh a rsg Cha pas

h wa fr spcla ha ArSa Bal prsppss a fr SuS sragc rm whch mlar

cam s a dsc pssblhc h frq aalg bw ArSa Bal ad Arad Bal. B,

as g Sar has pd :Arad Bal was dsgd fr a sa whch nAto ad h Warsaw ac wr w scrps a

blprpard fr all war a a mms c, prssd p agas ach hr alg h lda Gap ad

h nrh Grma la. nhg cmparabl ss h cas f h uSCha rlashp, ad bh sds

sll sm b cmmd adg sch a al. (Sar 2012:15)

ArSa Bal hrfr lacks a gdg, rarchg, grad sragc framwrk. is fcsd acqrg

h mlar mas pra csd zs b fals df h plcal ds f hs praal

aspras. Asaacc scr prs, cldg ASi, ha calld fr h dlpm f a uS grad srag

fr h Asaacc rdr prd a clarr mssag alls ad pal adrsars ab whch grar

plcal bjcs Amrcas sragc rbalac s dd sr (Jgs 2013). Sch a dcm cld,

fr ampl, clarf whhr Amrca wld b sasd wh h rsablshm f h sas q a afr

hsls casd b a Chs mlar prca h Wsr acc cm a d.

Ahr crcal ss rlad ArSa Bal s h rlashp bw mlar mas ad plcal ds

a majr cal war wh Cha. lar srag s all ab sg r hrag s armd frc

ach plcal bjcs. Wh cms plag h s f mlar frc agas Cha, hr ar gd

srags. A mlar scala bw hs w majr pwrs wld rsl mass damag h glbal

cm ad, wrs, cld lad clar scala.

Csql, a warghg srag agas Cha has b gdd b w majr assmps. rs, Chas

grwg clar arsal mpss sgca rsrcs uS argg ps. th rsk f clar scala

ms b mmsd bcas hr sd wll b abl w a clar chag. Scd, lmd mlar ps

cssa mds plcal ams. As tx amms has wr, hr ca b a dcs cr agas Cha b

l a salma whch lads a cssa f cc ad h rr sm frm f h sas q (amms 2012).

ArSa Bal mgh fac dfcls mg hs crra. rs, hr ar pal prblms wh clar

scala crl ArSa Bal. As md ab, a crcal assmp s ha wld scala a

clar cfra bcas agrm s r hra h s f clar waps wld appar

b bh pars rss (a tl al. 2010:50). Sch hkg appls h lgc f h scalld sabl

sabl parad, whch assms ha mal clar drrc bw h uS ad Cha shld b sabl

bcas f whas a sak, whras cfra a h cal ll s a dsc pssbl.

wr, sch a cm s far frm cra. nclar sabl a ArSa Bal scar crcall dpds

Chs assmps ab h abl f s clar srk capabl rma affcd b dp uS srks

Chs rrr as par f a bldg campag. y, whl h A has mad prgrss wards dlpg

a scr clar scdsrk capabl, s cmmad ad crl ssms ar sll hghl lrabl uS

sprr cal arsals. Amrca dp srks h Chs malad dsr ms f h Asladbasd lgrag waps ad hr cmmad ad crl ds mgh hs b prcd b h Chs

ladrshp as a amp dgrad hr clar drr as wll, ad csql cras h chacs f

Chs clar prmp.


21/44

19CAenGeS

ASi StAteGy

ArSa Bal rqrs sphscad mchasms ad

mal drsadg mms h rsk f SuS

clar cfra dr cds f majr

cal war.

ArSa Bal hs rass h spcr f a srs f mscalclas bh sds f Bjg prcs cal

aacks s hmlad as a amp dsarm s clar srk capabl, whch cas mgh b facd wha classcal s hm r ls hm dlmma. sr s lrd wh ampls f sd msjdgg h rd

ls f h hr. th ud nas (wh h uS h mlar lad) msrprd Chs hkg drg

h Kra War ad h md frcs cls Chs rrr, rggrg a mass Chs rsps. Ad

Chs sragss ha alrad dscssd h cds dr whch Bjgs dclarar clar rs s

plc mgh lgr appl, cldg a majr uS aack wh cal waps Chs rrr. ArSa

Bal rqrs sphscad mchasms ad mal drsadg mms h rsk f SuS clar

cfra dr cds f majr cal war.

asl, f a clar scala wh Cha ca b add, s clar ha h uS cld ach mds

plcal bjcs b srkg args malad Cha. G Chas ggraphcal sz, dp srks s

rrr rqr majr mlar pras ha cld rs Chs arspac wh lgrag srk

capabls. is hard bl ha dr sch cds Cha cld b crcd accpg lmd plcalbjcs. Accrdg glas acGrgr ad yg Km, ArSa Bal hrfr mgh rsk rsmblg a:

21s cr qal f mdal sg warfar. G Chas sz ad dph, s ahrara clr

ad spprg ss f ral scr, Amrca ar ad aal srk frcs ar lkl r f

prcsgdd ms lg bfr h r f args aack r ach cds farabl fr

accpabl [cc] rma. (acGrgr ad Km 2012)

i sm, whl ArSa Bal s a sp adjsg uS cal drrc srag, als rass sm crcal

qss ab h crl f scala ad h achabl f mds plcal ds h f war.

thrfr, s wrh csdrg alra mdls.

at are te alteratives?th alras als fcs maag Amrcas mlar accss a A2/A rm rdr dr

Cha. wr, h d cld drc srks agas malad Cha. r ampl, tx amms (2012) has

prpsd a srag f ffshr crl ha rls hr cr lms:

egCha h s f h sa sd h rs slad cha, prmarl b sg aack sbmars, ms ad

lmd ar srks. ths wld pla h chlgcal ad praal srghs f h uS na, parclarl

h drsa dma.

efedgh ar ad sa spac f h rs slad cha dfd alls agas Chs aacks ad crc.

ths sks pl Chas ggraph b frcg h A gh a lgr rags, whl allwg h uS ad

s alls gh a grad arsa dfc framwrk r hr w rrrs.

magh marm prphr b rcpg Chs mrcha ad rg shppg h alacca

Sra ad hr marm chkps. ths maks s f h fac ha wll b a lg m bfr Cha wll

b abl prjc sgca pwr prc hs sa ls f cmmca (SoCs).


22/44


ASi StAteGy

i a smlar wa, Kl ad ghs (2012:3536) ha calld fr a war a sa srag ha wld am a dgCha h s f h sa sd h rs slad cha b:

dsa rcp f Chs shppg, wdsprad sbmar aacks ad mg sd h rs slad

cha, ffs aacks b a lla cmpsd f small msslcarrg cmbaas gh h Cha

sas ad parl ssls fr marm rdc a sras ad chkps, ad ar pdar

frcs psd hld h Sh Cha Sa slads a rsk, wh f pg grd frcs

Chas malad.

th arg ha hs srag wld prd Amrca ladrs wh gradad ps shr f scalar

srks h Chs malad, makg l mr crdbl b als mr sabl fr a grad srag

basd hr cpra, cmp, cfra, cc shr f war, r war. rhrmr, h naal

sgrada Schl ad h uS naal War Cllg ar rprdl wrkg a all d Balspac

Srag ha als rfras frm ag dp srks h Chs malad ad sad ss uS marm

sprr d Chs warshps accss hr w wars ad d Chs cmmrcal shppg accss

h wdr acc.

ths prpsals ar mr rms f ArSa Bal ha majr alras. Ad hr rskfr, hr.

r ampl, f a k am f ArSa Bal s dfd tawa, s hard s hw ha cld b d wh

srkg args malad Cha dgrad h As ashp ad aar ssms dpld alg h

casl. Ad sa dal pras h tawa Sra wll b a frmdabl ask, g h cls prm

malad Cha ad h sgca mdrsa f A capabl cs uS abl rga ar sprr

h f war.

nr s rl clar hw hs alras cld mms h rsk f scala, as a dsa rcp

f ssls wld ms lkl b s b Bjg as a ac f war ad cld rggr a mass mlar rsps.ths cms back a p mad ab: ha hr ar gd mlar ps a war wh Cha, js las

bad s. nrhlss, srags ha fcs dal mgh b a br alra fr ccs shr f majr

war r tawa r Japa, sch as marm dsps h Sh Cha Sa ad lswhr.


23/44

CAte 3

Asa alls ad parrs

Alls sch as Japa ad Asrala ar s as plag a ac rl h ArSa Bal ccp. y, bcas

f s Cha dms, ArSa Bal prss alls ad parrs wh h classcal dlmma f bg cagh

bw rapm ad abadm.

o h had, h wa ad bcmg rappd SuS sragc ralr. Sgg p fr ArSa

Bal a a m wh hr sll sms ampl ppr crpra Cha a pacfl Asa

scr rdr cld b drmal hr rss. ArSa Bal cld hs ha a dsrp ffc uS

allac rlashps.

o h hr had, hr sspc ab Chas sragc rajcr has crasd rc ars. As h

prc a dcl mlar pwr rla Cha, h wa ad bg abadd b hr uS all.

Sm lms f ArSa Bal cld hrfr bcm a rgasg prcpl fr h uS ad s alls,

sramlg srag ad frc srcr. Srghg alls ad parrs sa dal capabls sppr

a ArSa Bal framwrk cld prd al fr uSld pras ad wld als b l wh hs

crs sragc prfrcs ad frc rsrcrg rds.

norteast Asia

Japa, Sh Kra ad tawa ar h k pal plars nrhas Asa wh cms ArSa Bal.

Japa ad tawa ar frl sas a pssbl SuS cc, whl Sh Kras gsragc lca

ad s hsg f uS bass als g a pall mpra rl. Whl all f hm ha sgh gag

Cha rdr crag s pacfl rs, fars ab Bjgs rajcr ha rcl ld hr crasdrlac h uS as a mas f ral balacg. As a rsl, h mgh b mr p sppr a ArSa

Bal framwrk, alb arg dgrs.


24/44


ASi StAteGy

Fiure 5: geostrateic situatio i norteast Asia

Japa

rps f ArSa Bal rgard Japa as a k ablr. th CSBA rpr sas ha:

Japa ffrs a masr f sragc dph s rhr ad asr rgs, whl h ggraph f hks slad cha ma pr parclarl adaags fr ASW pras. Wr Japa cas bg a

uS all r p sa ral h f a SuS clash, h abl c a ArSa Bal ccp

wld b mad mr dfcl. Abs Japas sppr, a sccssfl dfs f tawa r Sh Kra wld

b prblmac, a bs. (a tl al. 2010:14)

th pca s ha Japas sbsaal ar ad aal frcs wld agm uS frcs slcd mss

aras, cld sbmar ad arbasd ASW, marm iS, marm srk ad ballsc mssl dfs

(a tl al. 2010:30). th rpr als prpss a rag f j uSJapa mlar acs srgh

Japas abl pla a k rl h ccp:

ard slcd bass, cras rapd rwa rpar capacs, ad lca crcal mlar asss ad ss

(.g. k hadqarrs ad pras ss) dp drgrd r wh mas.

ll gra s grd ad sabasd ar ad mssl dfc ssms ad pras (cldgllgc ad arl warg cpra) wh uS frcs sad ad ar Japa.

icras Japas ar ad ballsc mssl dfcs.


25/44

23ASiAn AieS An AtneS

ASi StAteGy

epad s r f frhgra ghrs ad prcr fhgra ghrs prc s arspacad fr p uS ghrs fr ffs msss.

epad s drsa warfar ad ASW capabls, cldg s sbmar ad mad

drwar hcls.

rpar plas cpra wh h uS na fr sablshg ASW barrrs ha ak adaag f h

ggraph f h k slad cha. (a tl al. 2010:93)

Ca Japa l p hs pcas? tradall, s b a cls all f h uS, ad h Japa Slffs

rcs (JS) has a r hgh chlgcal sadard. wr, csal rsrcs h s f Japas

mlar pwr ha ld a largl dfs psr ad a fcs prdg ch capabls s Amrca all.

rr, Japa has als prsd a plc f gagm wards Cha, las bcas f grwg rad rlas.

... Chas rc bhar marm dsps s

wd Japa as a crpg pas ha prbs

uS ad alls racs rrral dsps...

wr, Chas grwg assrss has ld Japa abad s ccrs ab rapm. i sks

ab all pr mlar abadm b h uS a hs crcal jcr SJapas rlas(ghs 2012:219). tk facs grwg Chs mlar capabls acrss h eas Sa, whr fr

praal accss fr uS frcs cld b lmd r dd. ajr uS prag bass ad facls, sch as ar

bass okawa (Kada AB) ad iwak, ad h aal bas a Sasb, ar alrad wh srkg rag

f Chs mssls ad srk arcraf, as ar ma JS bass wsr Japa. rr, Chas rc

bhar marm dsps s wd Japa as a crpg pas ha prbs uS ad alls racs

rrral dsps rdr drm whhr hr s a lwr clg f uS drrc cmmm

(takahash 2012:1516). th crr sadff r h Skak/a islads, whch ar par f h k

slad cha, has l crasd h Japas pblcs hra prcps f Cha. op plls shw a allm

lw Japas sm wards s bggr ghbr.

As a csqc f Japas hghd prcp f hra, Japas 2012 naal fs rgram Gdls

mad h dfc f h nas (Shwsr) islads okawa rfcr a p prr. A w amcfs rc ccp ams a makg h JS lghr, mr chlgcall adacd, ad qppd wh

pwrprjc capabls. i hs c, sm Japas dfc prs pc h l f a

Alld ArSa Bal framwrk. r hm, ArSa Bal wll bcm h k fr mg JapauS dfc

cpra frwards. r ampl, Japas ar ad aal frcs cld b a k ablr fr hacg h

rslc f uS aal ad amphbs pras (takahash 2012).

t assss h JSs pssbl crb, s mpra rcgs ha s sll r mch dfsl

rd. tak h Japa arm Slffs rc (JS), fr ampl. sp cmmadg argabl h

ms sphscad srfac ad sbsrfac arsal h Asaacc (afr h uS), s largl b rgasd

dfs scr llas crb a spcc dsflabr arragm wh h uS na: whl

h uS prds ffs rpwr, h JS has fcsd dfs asks sch as mswpg, ASW, ad

ffs sbmar warfar. essall, h JS cld d r dfcl da ssa pras agash A wh uS lgscs sppr (lms 2012).


26/44


ASi StAteGy

wr, Japa s akg crmal sps mpr capabls ha cld crb a alld ArSa Balframwrk. o ara s ar ad ballsc mssl dfc. Cpra wh h uS jl dlp h adacd

S3 Blck iiA rcpr mssl cs. ths waps wll b sd Japas f s Ags dsrrs,

whch h JS plas add w mr shps f h pgradd Aag class. i Spmbr 2012, uS fs

Scrar aa als acd ha h uS wld dpl a scd mssl dfc radar salla

Japas sl.

Japa has dlpd a hghl sphscad ad wrkd srcr dc ad rack hsl ar ad ballsc

mssl acs. th hadqarrs f h JSs Ar fc Cmmad was md h hadqarrs f uS

rcs Japa a yka Ar Bas, gg drc accss h uS spacbasd mssl dc ssm ad hr

Amrca mssl dfc asss. Whl nrh Kras mssl hra s ma drr bhd hs dlpm,

Japa has als mpld sch asss okawa ad hr slads f h k cha srgh s

dfcs agas A ar, marm ad mssl frcs (Ball ad tar 2012). ths clds h dplmf mbl radar qpm clsr tawa ( ak, yag, ishgak ad irmjma) ad pgradg

grdbasd radar ss ak ad okrab slads. t cras marm praal awarss

hs slads, Japa has rdcd w w Kawasak1 marm parl arcraf wh a rag f p 8,000

klmrs. i rcl als acd h dplm f Glbal awk mad, hghald, lgdrac

srllac arcraf b 2015.

Wh cms pass dfcs, Japas ad uS dfc prs ha sard dscss h hardg f

crcal frasrcrs sch as yka Ar Bas. S far, uS bass Japa lack hardg cp wh pal

A srks wh 3 r 21 ballsc mssls. is q pssbl ha bh sds wll s agr ccr

masrs hs ara.

Japa has als ak addal masrs dfd dspd slads ad cras h casal dfc f

s Shwsr islads. i has frward dpld 15J cmba arcraf naha Ar Bas okawa ad s

w csdrg prmal sag js h Sakshma islads, whch ar clsr h Skak

islads. rhrmr, tk has dcdd prcr 42 35 cmba arcraf. Sm ha spclad ha h

cld pra frm Japas hlcprcarrg dsrrs f tk ps fr h 35B shr akff ad rcal

ladg ara, b hrs dc f ha as . A frhr qs s whhr h Japa Ar Slffs

rc wld s s KC767 akr arcraf rfl h 35s crar pras agas Cha r

backll fr uS ghrs gagd drc pras agas h A Ar rc.

i l wh Japas 2010 naal fs rgram Gdls, s als dlpg a small amphbs frc

b armd wh srfacshp mssls fr drc dfc f sm f h k islads. th JS wll acqr

a addal osmclass amphbs assal shp fr ha prps, ad a w C2 sragc raspr arcraf

wll mpr s sll lmd arlf capabl. th rs dplm f JS arm s yag islad s maas a plcal mssag Cha ab tks cmmm slad dfc, wh mr fllw f cssar

(Sars 2013).

all, Japa s hacg s ASW capabls fr pras h wars ard Japa h fac f Chas

sbmar bldp. is acclrad s w sbmar rplacm ra ad wll cras s frm 15

2224 bas. Wh h w 4,200 Srclass, h JS w als cmmads Japas rs sbmar

wh ardpd prpls, whch gs a sgca capabl fr lgrag dpwar pras.

rr, s ak w w gaclass 19,000 hlcprcarrg dsrrs src. Carrg p

11 asbmar hlcprs, hr cmparabl lgh arcraf carrrs ad ar als qppd wh bw

sar, rpd bs ad h ShAsrc rckbasd rpd. Japa plas bld w largr 27,000

hlcpr carrrs, ach abl carr p 14 hlcprs. ths shps ar dd b h cr f fr

hlcpr/dsrr grps prag dfc f Japas slads h eas Cha Sa (tll 2012:92). thrdrsa SoSuS (sd srllac ssm) arras ccd 14 shr sas g Japa a sgca

capabl rack Chs sbmars rasg frm h eas Cha Sa h wdr acc oca.


27/44


ASi StAteGy

... s far Japa ams l crmall srgh

s sa ad ar dal capabls ad has dcdd

a cmprhs ffs mlar bldp.

nrhlss, s far Japa ams l crmall srgh s sa ad ar dal capabls ad has

dcdd a cmprhs ffs mlar bldp. Bdg lmas ad a cd rlac a uS

mlar prsc mak fr a mds crsslwl crasg sladdfc capabls whl rag sm

blwar capabls basd s crr f 44 dsrrs prc Japas SoCs. idd, Japa has

dcd whhr rspd Chas rapd marm bldp b dlpg a fll dgd aradal

capabl (Sars 2013), b s lag h fdas ad wld b chcall wll qppd d s f rqrd.

Japas dfc plag has hs sard shf wards cmplmar a pssbl Alld ArSa Bal

ccp. larl, s crasgl wll placd plg ad pla a fr SuS cc. Ad, g Japas

gsragc rs maag h sas q tawa, s hghl lkl ha tk wld bcm a

ac all f h uS gs war wh Cha r h slad. thrfr, wll b pag cls a whhr

h ag maks h prgrammac ad bdgar shfs cssar m ArSa Bal frward ad

drwr h rbalac gral. thrs ll db ha tk has a majr rs h sccss f

ArSa Bal.

Sout orea

th ArSa Bal ccp s mr prblmac fr h pblc f Kra (oK) bcas f Sls cmpg

sragc ccrs. Sc 1953, h oKs cr sragc prr has b dr ad dfa a pal nrh

Kra as. rr, lk Japa, Sh Kra rmas mr ambal ab h Chs hra. Whl

Chas bhar h 2010 crss h Kra sla dd mch a Sh Kra, b s amps

shld nrh Kra frm raal crcsm, a frdl rlashp wh Bjg s sll rgardd as bcal

fr Sls lgrm plcal gal f pacfl ca f h psla. ArSa Bal rass h rsk f Sh

Kra bg draw a wad cc wh Cha, ad s w rrr cld cm dr aack drg

h rs sag a sqc f Chs aacks drcd agas uS frcs, parclarl uS hbs a osa

ad gak.

wr, rc ars Sh Kra has bcm mr wrrd ab h pal fr Chs dmac

nrhas Asa. is ccrs cld sss sch as Chas assrs ab h hsrcal rgs f h

Ggr Kgdm h rhr par f h psla, Bjgs appar rlcac prssr h nrh

hal s clar waps prgram, ad sgs f a grwg Chs cmc dmac r Sh Kra.

rr, bh sds clashd r h Scra ck (als kw as id r Sa) 2006, ad hr wr

l clashs bw rawlrs r shg grds 2010 ad 2011, as wll as ss r SoCs.

th oK als ds pla dal wh a pssbl cllaps f nrh Kra. i wll d sfc capabls

dpl rh m a A shward r scr nrh Kras clar waps, ad dal wh a

Chs ccpa f sm pars f h rh. th A cld als m cmplca uS ad oK aal pras

sch a b cdcg marm accssdal pras h yllw Sa (B ad d 2011).

Sh Kras crr efese efrm 2020pla s sll crd drrg a nrh Kra as.wr, sm lms f h pla ca als b s as a rsps Chas mlar rs. i gral, hrs

a m awa frm lad frcs wards h oK Ar rc ad h oK na. th k gal s cra a mr


28/44


ASi StAteGy

chlgcall adacd mlar wh a crasd pdar capabl. th oK Ar rc s acqrgp 60 15K ghr arcraf ad h Bg 737 AeW&C arcraf, ad lks dlp a w fhgra

mlrl cmba arcraf, h Kx ghr. wr, h gras chags ha b mad h marm

dma. th oK na has acqrd Ags ardfc ssms fr s hr w Sjgclass dsrrs,

mlprps Chgmggclass dsrrs, ad h rs f fr 18,000 hghspd amphbs ladg

shps carrg p 10 hlcprs. i als plas cras s f dsllcrc tp 214 sbmars

(basd a Grma dsg) frm 15. th oK na s hs mrgg as a srs blwar a

nrhas Asa (Kda 2010), ad s capabls cld prcpl b sd a ArSa Bal c. all,

Sh Kra was abl rga a 2001 agrm wh h uS s hghlc mssls, whch w ha

h rag rach args acrss nrh Kra.

Sh Kra a hs p sms b mr ccrd

ab rapm wh cms ArSa Bal.

Sll, Sh Kra a hs p sms b mr ccrd ab rapm wh cms ArSa Bal.

ths ccrs mgh pla wh h Sh Kra fc sr has pblcl sad ha h w marm

bas h shr rsr slad f Jj, sad bw Japa ad Cha, wld lack h capabls hs

uS frcsdsp h fac ha h w salla cld b hm mr ha 20 oK warshps. mscall,

h bas s sbjc majr crcsm, ad sm far a scala f ss wh Cha ad a dsablsgarms rac. rhrmr, Sl wll prbabl pps a m b h uS cld Sh Kra ad Japa mr

clsl a nrhas Asa ArSa Bal archcr bcas f s cg ccr ab gg cls

tk mlarl.

As h uS mlar shfs s fcs wards Cha ad mg h A2/A challg h ar ad marm dmas,

rsrc csras cld s uS lad frcscldg hs h pslaak a back sa. As a rsl,

Sh Kra has assm grar rspsbl fr s w dfc agas h nrh Kra hra. ths wll

l bd Sh Kra rsrcs b mgh als acrba s fars ab uS abadm. o balac, g h

rsks fr Sh Kra hr h chagg Amrca sac, ad pblc ad plcal sm ab a grar

uS mlar fpr, sms lkl ha Sl wll pl hrw s sppr bhd h ArSa Bal ccp.

wr, shld rlas bw h oK ad Cha drra dramacall, h oK na, parclar, cld

pla a par algsd h uS na ad hr adacd marm frcs a ArSa Bal framwrk.

Taiwa

Argabl, a pal SuS war r tawa s a h har f ArSa Bal h Wsr acc. th

pssbl f a mlar scala a hs p sms rahr rm, g ha h crr tawas

Grm shws cla wards prmg de jredpdc frm malad Cha. wr,

tawa s h crpc f Chs A2/A srag, ad ca wh wha Bjg ss as a rgad

prc s sll hgh Chas plcal agda. Whl h uS cral ds ha a rs a majr war

wh Cha r h slad, h 1978 tawa las Ac ams a de faccmmm dfd tawa

f h Chs amp cqr h slad b frc. Ad, crar cal wsdm, hr ar als

gsragc rass wh h uS has a rs dfdg tawa, sch as adg damag uS ladrshpcrdbl (parclarl Japa) ad g p Chs rsrcs ha cld hrws b sd fr mlar

acs bd h tawa Sra (Brkpf tckr ad Glasr 2011).


29/44


ASi StAteGy

Cha has gradall chagd h mlar balac h tawa Sra, las b dplg mr ha 1,000 11ad 15 shrrag ballsc mssls pps tawa. thrgh h dplm f frhgra arcraf, h

A Ar rc s als achg ar sprr r h ara, parl bcas h uS has b rlca prd

h tawas Ar rc wh mr sphscad cmba arcraf. Ad h A na s acqrg a qala ad

qaa dg r tawa dsrrs ad sbmars ha wld allw blckad tawa ad ps sr

challgs fr uS frcs rg h tawa Sra.

wr, tawa s mg wards a mr asmmrc dfc psr amd a dg A frcs h

apprachs h slad. ths clds a fcs hardg crcal frasrcr sch as arlds ad prs

sr A mssl bmbardms, as wll as sms ms, fas mssl bas, aack hlcprs

ad spcal frcs. th tawas na als plas acqr s w dgsl bl mhg shps r

h 12 ars cr a pssbl A blckad. i cmba wh tawas arar, aalaal ad

grdgrd dfs rdc waps ssms, hs srag cld hld ff a Chs rs srk lggh draw uS frcs h cc. G h hr dfcls f largscal amphbs ass,

tawa wld b a as arg fr h A. rr, tawa s rprdl wrkg a w sprsc

ffs srfacsrfac mssl ha cld rach Chas cral ad shr rgs, cldg Shagha,

hrb rag a pshm capabl agas Chs cs rsps a A aack. i nmbr 2012,

tawa als srd a w sprsc ashp mssl, h sg g iii, whch cld b sd agas a

fr Chs arcraf carrr ad hr srfac ssls.

As a pal majr balgrd a SuS cfra, tawa has a gra rs srghg

capabls rla h ArSa Bal ccp. Apar frm s crbs ar ad marm dal asss,

tawa cld crb uS saal awarss h ar, spac, sa ad cbr dmas. r ampl, s

w lgrag arl warg ssm, prdd b h uS, s sad shar daa wh h uS. rr, sm uS

prs ha argd ha h oC na has a rm grasp f h q drsa ggraph ad hdrlgcalrm f h Wsr acc oca, ad ha maag tawas capac rdc sgl ps f

falr h As A2/A ssm cld rl h uS f par f s ha praal brd ad rdc rsks f

scala (Sks ad sa 2012). r hs uS sragss, tawa s a k parr ArSa Bal.

tha sad, mch dpds whhr h uS wll rall b wllg prd tawa wh mr safhar

mlar qpm rqrd cr Chas mlar bldp. th obama admsra has parl accdd

tawas rqss ad 2011 rlasd a uS$6.4 bll arms packag ha cldd sa dal capabls

sch as Black awk u60 hlcprs, arp ashp mssls, AC3 ar dfc mssls, osprclass

mhg shps, ad pgrads fr tawas cmmad, crl, cmmcas, cmpg, llgc,

srllac ad rcassac (C4iS) ssms. B has agrd prd tawa wh h mch wad,

adacd 16 C/ ghr arcraf, fr far f aagsg Cha. rr, h admsra has dlr

a pldg mad drg h Bsh prsdc prd tawa wh w dsllcrc sbmarsa dfclprms kp, bcas h uS ds bld hm ad hr as (sch as Asrala, Grma, Sh Kra

r Japa) wld b rlca sll hm.

Souteast Asia

i h ArSa Bal c, Shas Asa bcms mr prm uS sragc hkg. ths s parl

bcas f h pal fr a dsa blckad c Cha ff frm s SoCs b crllg sragc

chkps h alacca ad mbk sras. th uS cld s s alls ad parrs ggraphcal ps

ad adaags hdrgraph sablsh asbmar barrrs alg h ks ad acrss h z

Sra hrgh h hlpp slads ad shr s frm h Sh Cha Sa (a tl al. 2010:72). ths

mas ha ds accss bass ad facls fr lgscs ad maac, parclarl Sgapr, hhlpps ad vam.


30/44


ASi StAteGy

Sll, bh h uS ad s Shas Asa alls ad parrs wll prbabl b cas wh cms ArSa Bal. Washg cral has a rs crasg dfc cpra ad raal accss

gsragcall mpra lcas h rg, ad has mad clar ha has a majr rs h

pacfl rsl f rrral ccs h Sh Cha Sa. nrhlss, h uS s als r carfl

bcm rappd marm bdar dsps h ara.

th pal fr ArSa Bal as Shas Asa s mch mr lmd ha nrhas Asa. s

Shas Asa crs wll prbabl b rlca sppr a ccp ha cld rapdl lad majr

scala, parclarl sc hr marm rrral dsps wh Cha d warra a majr war. isad,

h cld b mr rsd spprg alra srags basd sa dal cas Cha bcms

mr assr h Sh Cha Sa.

PilippiesWashg has clard whhr s 1952 al fs tra wh h hlpps wld appl h

f a rrral cc bw ala ad Bjg. ths ambg cld affc h dgr f sppr fr ArSa

Bal ha h uS ca pc frm Shas Asa crs, whch ha grall wlcmd Amrcas p as

a hdg agas Chs assrss rrral ccs h Sh Cha Sa b whch als wa kp

hr sragc ps p.

thrfr, w shld b cas ab prdcg hw mch h uS wll b abl s Shas Asa h

ArSa Bal c. Sm uS cmmars ha alkd ab h gsragc rr f h hlpps ad

argd ha Washg shld sppr ala dlp s w s f A2/A capabls cr Chas

grwg pwr prjc capabls h sas ws f h hlpps. ths cld cld h prs f

dfs ssms sch as marm srllac arcraf, ashp mssls, ar dfc ssms ad rdarmad aral hcls (uAvs) (thmas ad sr 2012).

tha wld b asr sad ha d. Argabl, Chas assrss h Sh Cha Sa ad h rlad

sadff r h dspd Scarbrgh Shal has ld ala sk ( h wrds f hlpps fs

Scrar vlar Gazm) a mmm crdbl dfc frm s uS all. wr, parclarl bcas f s

rad dpdc Cha, h grm s als carfl m cls Washg. rr, m

s scarc ad s a ad ar frc ar a r pr sa. th rsl s ha ala has ak mbrc sps

mdrs basc capabls fr ar ad marm pras. t rals s praccall s ar dfc,

h grm dcdd b 12 t/A50 lgh aack ghrs frm Sh Kra, b l afr ccldg ha

h maac css f 12 uS 16 C/ cmba arcraf wld b hgh. th marm dma ds lk

mch br. th w agshps f h hlpps na ar w 1960s uS Cas Gard amlclass crs.

Whl als ams acqr w iala asralclass frgas, whch wld b h as rs mdr,msslarmd, ASWcapabl shps, wll ak ars pra sch mr adacd ssms.

th uS has ffrd prd a w ladbasd radar cras alas marm awarss, bh sds

ha crasd j rcss sch as h Balkaa mlsrc cmbd mlar rcs, ad hrs b a

brf dplm f uS 3 or marm parl arcraf. nrhlss, fr h uS, h hlpps k al

ArSa Bal s prdg raal accss fr uS frcs. Whl ala has cagrcall cldd a prma

Amrca prsc, h w crs ha sard gas fr sch ras. uS aal frcs ad mars

cld hs pall s hlpps facls sag pras h Sh Cha Sa.


31/44


ASi StAteGy

Siaporei a mr csd sragc rm, Sgapr has bcm mr mpra fr h uS as a parr.

tpcall, rmas ghlppd ab s cmmms uS sragc psr, b sms ha jdgd

a crasd Amrca mlar prsc b s rs. Whhr h Sgapra plcal ad mlar

ladrshp accps h ArSa Bal ccp s clar, b Sgapra fcals ha ffrd prmal

hs p fr uS lral cmba shps a Chag naal Bas, w mr ha rgall sagd b h uS na.

... Sgapr has h mlar capabls pla a

spprg rl a ArSa Bal c.

udbdl, Sgapr has h mlar capabls pla a spprg rl a ArSa Bal c. i

has acqrd s w rmdablclass frgas armd wh arp ashp mssls ad rch Asr15

ar dfc mssls. is als pgradd s sbmar frm fr s wh h add f w Swdsh

vasrgladclass sbmars wh ardpd prpls ssms fr dd sbmrgd drac.

Sgapr lds Shas Asas ms adacd ar frc, wh 74 16 ad 24 wbld 15 srk ghrs,

spplmd wh arar rfllg arcraf ad Glfsram G550 AeW&C arcraf. i s als parcpag

h JS prgram. ths capabls wld allw Sgapr mak a mpra crb spcc

ArSa Bal msss, sch as a dsa blckad f Cha h alacca Sra.

wr, h Sgapra Grm wld prbabl hk wc bfr cmmg a praal ccp

ha cld s ld a majr war wh Cha. i fac, Sgaprs b q carfl ad h mprss

f mg cls h uS, ad wld amacall sppr a uS psh fr a mch ghr sac agas

Cha. i h f SuS cc r tawa r h hlpps, s clar whhr Sgapr wld allw

h s f s aal bas rsppl uS carrr balgrps r as a sagg p fr uS lral cmba shps

(l 2012).

Vietam

thrs b mch spcla ab vams rsg sragc rajcr ad s pal rl a w uS

Shas Asa srag. k h hlpps, s a frl sa h Sh Cha Sa, ad has marmrrral dsps wh Cha. i als ams srgh s aal capabls hrgh h acqs f s

Klclass dsllcrc sbmars ad Slakclass fasaack craf frm ssa. a s rprdl

als wrkg wh scw h j dlpm f h SSn25 ashp mssl ad a muAv. i

nmbr 2012, sgd a dal wh a Swdsh cmpa, umad Ssms Grp, fr h j dlpm

f a mdmrag uAv. th vams na has acqrd w Gpardclass frgas frm ssa, has sgd

a crac fr w addal shps a ASW rs, ad s gag a crac prchas fr Sgmaclass

crs frm h nhrlads. t mpr marm srllac, vam has als prcrd s C6 tw

or arcraf frm Caada. is ar frc s acqrg a las 20 ssa S30 k2 mlrl cmba arcraf. i

cmba wh s Su27s, hs acqs wld abl vam cras s aal srk capabl.

wr, hr ar rass b cas ab vams wllgss ad abl pla a k rl a fr

ArSa Bal framwrk. Whl s rd a frmal mlarmlar rlashp wh h uS ad srsd uS dfc qpm, vams grad sragc apprach appars b casl pla h


32/44


ASi StAteGy

uS ad Cha ff agas ach hr (thar 2012). i wll b rlca m cls h uS, parclarlbcas s lad brdr wh Cha maks rml lrabl cas f a mlar cc. rr,

dsagrms r hma rghs wll p lmas uSvams dfc cpra.

Idoesia

idsas gsragc lca maks dall placd pla a rl ArSa Bal wh cms a dsa

blckad. rg hs s nmbr 2011, obama ad hs idsa crpar ydh rcrmd

hr cmmm hr cmprhs parrshp. idsa s als sarg cras s marm ad ar

capabls, f frm a r lw bas ad mal prc pars f s as archplag. is als ccrd

wh a scar f Chs dma f h Sh Cha Sa. A h sam m, hwr, l wh s plc f

algm, Jakara s k adg b s as cls h uS. rr, ams ha mall

bcal rlas wh Bjg, cldg hrgh praccal dfc cpra. idsa sppr fr ArSa

Bal hs sms b rahr qsabl a hs p.


33/44

CAte 4

Asrala ad ArSa Bal

A Asrala Grm wll d wgh h prs ad cs f sgg p h ArSa Bal ccp,

f ad wh r uS all asks s mak a crb. A mbr f sragc csdras shld frm

Asralas ps:

rs, Asrala has a majr rs srghg uS ad alld drrc h fac f Chas grwg

mlar pwr. As h Gllard grm has srssd, Asrala als bs frm a cd srg

uS mlar prsc Asa as a hdg agas wad sragc dlpms. ArSa Bal ca pla a

al rl srghg uS ad alld cal drrc a mr csd Asaacc sragc

rm. rrg h A frm mlar aggrss rqrs hkg ab hw ad wh s armd

frc maa a sabl ad farabl scr rdr. i hs crcmsacs, h grm shldwlcm uS hkg ab ArSa Bal as a crcal lm f h Amrca rbalac ad prd a

alrd b csrc rsps.

Scd, r gsragc lca mas ha Asrala s a frl sa a ArSa Bal c

(lk Japa, tawa ad Sh Kra). Csql, r bggs al fr h uS cms frm r bg a

rlabl plcal all, prdg sragc dph ad pall makg sm slcd wrh mlar

crbs f d b. Crar cal wsdm, h uS s prbabl pcg Asrala mak

majr w sragc cmmms h Asa har bd r mmda ghbrhd, s w cld

fll r allac cmmms wh fcall sgg p ArSa Bal r dlpg w capabls

spccall dsgd fr sch a c.

thrd, s dfcl s wha h Asrala Grm cld ga frm pblcl drsg ArSa Bal

a hs m. th ccp rsks makg h Chs mlar a m a a m wh Amrca, Asralaad alld grad srag s sll amd a grag Bjg a cpra Asa scr rdr. Whl h

ccp cld mak ss a Cld Warp Asaacc sragc rm, drsg h ccp

w wld cssarl cmplca r rlashp wh Cha. i wld sgal Cha ha h A s w

acl prparg fr a pal cc wh h A.

rh, a h praccal mlar ll, h A cld b frm parcpag ArSa Bal rlad

acs. or m, h w praal ccp s lkl lad chags h accs, chqs ad

prcdrs f uS acc frcs, ad w dcral dlpms sch as hs ha f b drrs f

chlgcal a h uS mlar. G ha Asrala has a rs maag sgca

rprabl bw h A ad uS frcs ad has bd mch frm uS mlar chlg rasfr,

w ha a rs clsl fllwg ArSa Bal dlpms a h mlar ll. B ha ds

ma ha h A has mrrr h praal ccp.

i sm, h Asrala Grm shld adp a pragmac apprach ArSa Bal, ffrg slc

mlar sppr r uS all.


34/44


ASi StAteGy

Australias possible cotributioWha cld ad shld Asrala crb ArSa Bal? Spprrs f h ccp ha argd ha

w shld csdr a fll rag f acs sppr r Amrca all (a tl al. 2010, Babbag 2011,

hma 2011). Sggss cld:

makg Asrala a majr lgscal hb fr Amrca lgrag srk arcraf, carrr srk grps ad

clar sbmars

jl dlpg w capabls wh h uS ad Japa, sch as lgrag srk ad a gra

ashp ballsc mssl,

frward dplm prc alld bass nrhas Asa ad crb ASW pras

Shas Asa ad ocaa

cdcg amphbs srk pras h Shas Asa ad Sh acc archplags

crbg a dsa blckad f Chs shps hrgh pras h asr ida oca ad

Shas Asa.

Sch hkg s r mch l wh h prs Asrala grm f rm sr K dd

whs dfc plc cld ha pall mad s a sgca parcpa a uS ArSa Bal framwrk.

r ampl, hs 2008 S spch dd mphassd h d bs mlar capabls mak Asrala a

srs marm pwr h fac f a mr csd Asa sragc rm. rr, h 2009 fc

Wh apr (W) was l plc rms f Asralas asss wh Chas sragc rajcr.

i als lad a ambs pla hac h As pwr prjc capabls, cldg h dlpm

f mch mr capabl sbmars abl cdc sragc srk (Cmmwalh f Asrala 2009).

th grm f Jla Gllard has wlcmd Amrcas p Asa ad has d a uS ar ArGrdtask rc (AGt) ra hrgh arw as a sgal f dplmac sppr fr r all. A h sam m,

hwr, has d dw s rhrc sas Cha ad h W s pcd fllw hs l. rhr,

h frc srcr s h 2009 W s f sc wh w scal rals. A fr grm

wll fac gh frc srcr dcss afr h parlamar lcs ad rmas b s hw

mch f h 2009 W ambs wll sr. th grm wll hrfr ha a rs makg sm

crbs a alld ArSa Bal framwrk whl adg rambs cmmms.

th uS s prbabl ms rsd Asrala

prdg grar sragc dph...

th uS s prbabl ms rsd Asrala prdg grar sragc dph, allwg m sm f

s rps ad asss frhr awa frm Chs mssl rag, hrb rdcg h mpac f a prmp

Chs ms ad cmplcag A mlar plag. Asrala has lg hsd j cmmad, crl ad

llgc facls ha pla a mpra par Amrca pras, as wll as prdg uS frcs wh

accss mlar facls ad rag aras. i h fr, h AGt prsc arw cmba wh

h ra f uS Ar rc asss (sch as sragc bmbrs ad akr arcraf) hrgh AA Bas tdal

cld bcm a k facr uS ArSa Bal plag. Asrala cld als sr as a lgscal hb, arsal

ad rpar cr fr uS frcs. A lss sbl b sfl crb cld b h ara f spac srllac,

whch cld b sd mr ad rack Chs acs hs ara. o f h fw praccal cms f


35/44

33AuStAiA An AiSeA BAtte

ASi StAteGy

h las AuSin alks was h dcs rlca a uS CBad spac srllac radar Wsr Asrala 2014 rdr cras crag f spac bjcs r h shr hmsphr.

upgradg AS Serlg Wsr Asrala pall hs uS clar sbmars ad carrr

srk grps s prbabl l a lgrm prspc. th Gllard grm has sad ha sch a dlpm

s lkl h ar fr, g h sgca acal css ld, ad h uS has apparl p

hs p h abl. th sam gs fr a pssbl pgrad f arlds h Ccs islads, rm alls

far frm idsa, whch cld pall hs uS mlar arcraf. Apar frm h bdgar mplcas,

sch a dlpm wld sd a srg sgal Cha ad h rg ab Asralas cmmm

mrgg uS warghg dcr. y, f h Asaacc rm bcms mch mr csd,

prdg grar sragc dph s cral a fr p fr Asrala grms ad ha

wld b wlcmd b r uS all.

ss Babbag has sggsd ha Asrala csdr h j dlpm wh h uS f a lgrag salh

bmbr ha cld b sd srk args Cha (Babbag 2011). Sch a p, hwr, sms hr

ralsc r sragcall ssbl. is lkl ha h uS wld ha a rs frg parcpa sch

a hghal prgram, parclarl sc wll b clar capabl. lcall, sch a m wld sgal Cha

ha Asrala s plag acl parcpa dp srks agas s rrr, makg Asrala a r lkl

arg f Chs plars. i wld als prbabl b a sgca acal dra.

is als qsabl whhr a Asrala Grm wld ha a rs dplg h As w ar

warfar dsrr, qppd wh h Ags cmba ssm pall dfd agas ballsc mssls, a

nrhas r Shas Asa har h f war. opraall, hs capabls wld b mch br

sd dfdg crcal asss clsr hm, ad h cld l mak a smblc crb uSld

pras nrhas Asa. rr, h ar warfar dsrrs ar bg acqrd parl prc h w

w amphbs assal shps (ladg hlcpr dcks), whch cral w pra a ara cls Cha.

As fr h A ad amphbs srk pras h idsa archplag ad h Sh acc, sch a

crb als sms b a srch far. rs p, s clar wh Cha wld am cp Japas Wrld

War ii acc slads campagwhch s sd b sm as h jsca fr a Asrala amphbs slad

hppg capabl (hma 2011). Scd, hs hkg assms ha Asrala wll bascall rmdl r lad

frcs a amphbs frc, whch s a rahr lkl prspc. idd, crr A plag s dpl

p 2,200 rps h w w ladg hlcpr dcks, b sch a small amphbs frc wld b f

qsabl praal al agas a srs mlar cdr. rhrmr, mdllg shws ha wll

rqr alms h r A sppr ad dfd ha frc, g s lrabl ashp mssls, ms

ad wakhmg rpds. s lkl, wll d p cg h srk f r mds amphbs capac.

ths s arg agas ladg hlcpr dcks pr s, b h fr f r amphbs frc s rddldwh ma cras. ulss a dcs s mad sgcal rcgr r lad frcs mch largr

frcs pmsd fr spcal pras ad amphbs srks ad backd b mr salf capac m

hma h ps f hr cr Arm capablsh amphbs lm rsks bcmg a qsabl

sh frc. Ad s clar a hs p hw Asrala cld crb amphbs srks a ArSa

Bal c.


36/44


ASi StAteGy

th las pssbl Asrala crb wld

b cdcg prphral pras, sch as

rcpg Chs mrcha shppg hrgh a

dsa blckad, dsrg A mlar asss

prag h ara, r bh.

th las pssbl Asrala crb wld b cdcg prphral pras, sch as rcpg

Chs mrcha shppg hrgh a dsa blckad, dsrg A mlar asss prag h ara,

r bh. Sch pras ha a mbr f pal bs. rs, h pl Chas alacca dlmma:

rghl 80% f Chas 3.3 mll barrls f crd l pr da passs hrgh h alacca Sra, ad a

rdc b uS, Asrala r ida frcs drg a crss cld ps a srs hra Chas cmc

lfl. r h frsabl fr, h A w b abl prjc gh mlar pwr prc s

al shppg las r par f h wrld. if ampd , wld alms cral fac dfa. Scd,

prps arg ha hs p wld b pall lss scalar a war wh Cha bcas cld

ad drc frcfrc gagm.

th fllwg ps fr A crbs prphral campags ar hkabl:

dsrp sbmar campags lachd frm h wsr sabard ar rdc sagd frm Asrala bass, cldg h Ccs islads

aal rdc f Chs shps

srks a askfrcs rrg frm h ida oca

brakg Chas Srg f arls ad spprg uS bass h ida oca rg.

Bcas hs ara f pra s mch clsr hm, Asrala cld cral prd a mbr f mpra

capabls hs mss spcrm, cldg JS cmba arcraf, ASW capabls, a w class f hghl

capabl dsllcrc sbmars, ad lgrag marm srllac frm f h w 8 sd ad

pssbl lgrag, hghald uAvs. Asrala frcs cld als prd sm prc fr h uS bas

g Garca rl uS asss fr srk pras h ida oca.

thr wld b praal ad plcal lmas Asrala sbmar pras h ida oca.sllcrc sbmars ar sd fr h asr ida oca ad fr wllkw rass h An

w acqr clarpwrd vrgaclass SSns. e mr mpral, h rdc f Chs shppg

wld s Asrala drc cc wh Bjg. e sg a marm mbarg as a masr shr f war

wld prbabl b s b Cha as a ac f war, as a mbarg wld hra s cmc grwh ad b

s as a lrabl brach f s srg.

of crs, a ArSa Bal c, h assmp s ha wr alrad a war, ad prphral pras

ar js lm a bradr campag. B mplmg a dsa blckad s far asr sad ha d.

Bardg ad caprg shps s a cmpl drakg, as s dg sabl marshallg aras. rr,

mrcha shp crws ar f mlaal, rasg h prspcs f dplmac ccs wh hr crs.

r ampl, l ab 10% f Chas rg akrs ar crrl salg dr h pls pblc f Cha

ag, makg h dca ad rcp f h hr 90% q a prblmac ask. i rms, skg

a cpra ssl (fr ampl, a sprakr) wld cra majr rmal damag ad hras

h cla crw. all, Cha cld alwas r crcm h blckad b sg alra raspr


37/44

35AuStAiA An AiSeA BAtte

ASi StAteGy

rs. Sds ha als ccldd ha a rg blckad f Cha wld b rml damagg fr h glbalcm ad wld prbabl fal rach h plcal bjc f crcg Cha gg r dmads

(Clls ad rra 2008).

Te least worst optio

ths brgs s back r sarg p: hr ar gd ps fr ghg a war wh Cha. Basd

h aalss s hr, a wrkg assmp fr h Asrala Grm shld b ha Asa h

ArSa Bal ccp wll prbabl l b rggrd a SuS war r tawa r Japa. G h As

mds capac, Asralas mlar crb wld lkl b a sppr rl. tha mas prdg

ch capabls ad backllg fr uS asss gagd drc aacks agas h A. Apar frm hs

capabls dscssd ab, h uS wld prbabl s gra al Asrala prdg akr arcraf,

AeW&C arcraf ad lcrc warfar asss (sch as h A As Spr r Grwlr rs). ths ar

hghal asss fr a Amrca frc prag a A2/A rm, b lmg r crb

hm wld allw h A fcs dfs pras ad rfra frm ac srk pras agas

h A. Sch a crb wld als b cmmsra wh Asralas lmd dfc rsrcs, r

gsragc crcmsacs ad r sragc rs adg drc cmba pras agas Cha.

i h al aalss, h Asrala Grm wld b abl mak a wrh crb a uS ArSa

Bal framwrk dpd f a pblc cmmm a ccp has sll s arl sags ad ha

sms dsgd fr a sragc rm Asa whch s fll marals.


38/44

eCoenAtionS

A srg uS mlar psr Asa prd drrc ad rassrac s Asralas sragc rs.As Amrca rbalacs wards h Asaacc rg, Asrala grms mgh b askd frmla

a ps ArSa Bal. i prcpl, h Asrala Grm shld ackwldg ArSa Bal hkg

as a mpra crb adjsg uS drr srag Asa. y, g h cras ad pal

shrfalls srrdg h ccp h grms rsps shld b alrd b csrc. th

sps csdr fr grm cld cld h fllwg:

th grm shld sk a dald, classd brg frm s uS all ab h spccs f ArSa

Bal. ths wld dmsf h ccp. i wld als g s a br da f wha s pcd f Asrala

ad prd a ppr dscss crcal sss sch as h rlashp bw ArSa Bal ad

scala crl.

th grm shld crag h rlas f a dclassd rs f ArSa Bal. ths wld d

spcla amg alld ad parr crs, ad wld als sd a clarr mssag wards paladrsars sch as Cha.

th grm shld rfrc calls r Amrca all dlp a Asaacc srag prd a

rarchg grad sragc c fr ArSa Bal. thr s wrkg ard h fac ha h ccp

has a mag prblm ad ha lf addrssd hs cld bcm a labl fr fr cpra. th uS

shld prd a clar mssag hw ds dal wh Chas grwg mlar pwr ad wha rl

ArSa Bal wll pla.

thr s d fr h grm r fc pblcl drs ArSa Bal. th uS slf s sll h

prcss f drmg h spccs f mplmg h ccp. s f r Asa parrs ar als sg

h fc awag frhr uS clarca h scp f ArSa Bal. A hs p f m w als d

ha a rs sgallg Cha ha h A s prparg fr a fr mlar cc wh h A. i

h (lkl) f a war wh Cha, Asrala cld l prd h uS wh grar sragc dphb als crb A mlar ch capabls wh hag fcall sgd p fr ArSa Bal.

th uS AGt ad uS Ar rc lms rag hrgh r bass h rh cld h fr pla

a rl a ArSa Bal c. th Asrala Grm shld sk dscsss wh r uS all

ab hw hs frcs wld b sd h f cc. W wll als d csdr h mplcas

fr Asrala, cldg a pssbl gra f h A a Shas Asa ArSa bal framwrk

prag algsd uS frcs.

ArSa Bal ams a a w ll f chlgcal ad dcral gra f uS frcs. i h rs

f maag a sfc dgr f rprabl wh Amrca frcs, h A ds acpa

h pssbl mplcas f ArSa Bal hs ara. i shld hrfr sk cpra ArSa

Bal rlad acs cldg war gamg, parclarl hrgh cls rac wh uS acc

Cmmad. rr, h A shld hk hrgh h dcral mplcas f ArSa Bal fr frcal pras.


39/44

eeenCeS

Babbag 2011. Asralas sragc dg 2030, Kkda apers, . 15.

Ball , tar 2012. th rasfrma f h JASs llgc ad srllac capabls fr ar ad

mssl dfc, Secr Challeges, 8(2):1956.

B BW, d J 2011. nrh Kra cllaps: mlar msss ad rqrms, ieraal Secr,

36(2):84119.

Brkpf tckr n, Glasr B 2011. Shld h ud Sas abad tawa?, Washg Qarerl, 34(4):2337.

Blmhal, 2012. th uS rsps Chas mlar mdrza, tlls AJ, tras t (ds), Sraegc

Asa 20122013: Chas mlar challege(pp. 309339), naal Bra fr Asa sarch, Sal.

Bsss Wr 2012. esearch ad markes: arsea bale cceps, ke prgrams, ad frecas, 23 brar.

Clls GB, rra S 2008. n l fr h lamps f Cha?, naal War Cllege eew, 61(2):7995.

Cmmwalh f Asrala 2009, efedg Asrala he Asa acc Cer: efece rce 2030, Cabrra.

C o Jr 2011. Assessg he dersea balace bewee he uS ad Cha, SS wrkg papr, it, Cambrdg,

assachss.

bbs J 2012. War wh Cha, Sral, 54(4):724.

Grr J 2012. Sa chag: h na ps Asa, reg lc, 14 nmbr.

amms tx 2012. Srag fr a hkabl cc, the plma, Jl 27.

arrs t 2013. Wha h scal clff dal mas fr fs, CSBA Backgrder, Cr fr Sragc adBdgar Assssm, Washg C.

lms J 2012. Japas Cld War a, the plma, 15 ocbr.

ghs CW 2012. Chas mlar mdrza: uS alls ad parrs nrhas Asa, tlls AJ, tras t

(ds), Sraegc Asa 20122013: Chas mlar challege(pp. 197239), naal Bra fr Asa sarch, Sal.

l t 2012, Sgapr ad h uS: q alls, the Sraegs, 30 Jl.

Jgs 2013. th uS rbalac h Asaacc: a Asrala prspc, Asa lc, 15:3844.

Kl Je, ghs W Jr 2012. Bw pac ad h arsa bal: a war a sa srag, naal War Cllege

eew, 65(4):3540.

Kda y 2010. th mrgg pblc f Kra na, naal War Cllege eew, 63(2):1334.


40/44


ASi StAteGy

2012, Sraegc crs: he rse f Asa ad Asrala sraegc plc, Asrala Sragc lcis, Cabrra.

acGrgr , Km Jy 2012, ArSa Bal: smhg s mssg, Armed rces Jral, aalabl frm

hp://www.armdfrcsjral.cm/2012/04/9772607.

rcr J 2010. epa ad eraal plcs, Crll urs rss, ihaca, nw yrk.

ork 2012. Cha aal mderza: mplcas fr uS na capablesbackgrd ad sses fr

Cgress, Cgrssal sarch Src, Washg C, 10 cmbr.

lmr B 2013. Amrcas saggrg dfs bdg, chars, Washg s, 7 Jaar.

hma i 2011. rm dw der p ceer: Asrala, he ued Saes, ad hs cers specal

relashp, trasalac Acadm, Washg C.

Sars e 2013. Casal dfs Japas shwsr slads: frc psr ps fr scrg Japas

shr ak, regram 13001, rjc 2049 is.

Sgr 2012, A cas sd: eas Asa, tme agaze, 26 Spmbr.

Sks , sa 2012, tawas rl ArSa Bal, rjec 2049, 16 Aprl.

Sar 2012. Sa racsc 2.0: lar aspcs f h uS p ward Asa, Asa Affars, 39(4):116.

takahash S 2012. Cer A2/A JapauS defese cpera: ward Alled ArSea Bale, rjc 2049

is, 31 arch.

thar CA 2012, vams scr lk, niS J esearch Seres, 7:6988.

thmas J, sr 2012. th gsragc rr f h hlpps, CSBA ghlgh, Cr fr Sragc ad

Bdgar Assssm, 18 Aprl.

tll J 2012. Asas aal pas: a arms rac h makg? Adelph Seres, 432433, iraal is

fr Sragc Sds, d.

uS Arm, uS ar Crps 2012. Gag ad maag access: a Armare Crps ccep, arch.

uS (uS parm f fs) 2009. Spch b Scrar f fs br Gas naal War Cllg,

nwpr, hd islad, 17 Aprl.

uS (uS parm f fs) 2012a. lar ad secr deelpmes lg he eples epblc f

Cha, Washg C.

uS (uS parm f fs) 2012b. J operaal Access Ccep (JAoC), vers 1.0, Washg C.

uS (uS parm f fs) 2012c, Aal repr Cgress gage la fr Csrc f

naal vessels fr y 2013, Washg C.

a tl J, Gzgr , Krpch A, thmas J 2010. ArSea Bale: a pfdeparre peraal ccep,

Cr fr Sragc ad Bdgar Assssm, Washg C

xag 2012, Cha ad h p, Sral, 54(4):113128.
http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2012/04/9772607http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2012/04/9772607


41/44

AConyS An

ABBeviAtionS

A2/A aaccss/aradal

A Asrala fc rc

AeW&C arbr arl warg ad crl

ASW asbmar warfar

CSBA Cr fr Sragc ad Bdgar Assssm

parm f fs (uS)

W fc Wh apr

iS llgc, srllac ad rcassac

JS Japa arm Slffs rc

JS Japa Slffs rcs

JS J Srk ghr

AGt ar ArGrd task rc

A pls bra Arm

oK pblc f Kra

SoCs sa ls f cmmca

SSBn shp, sbmrsbl, ballsc, clar (ballsc mssl sbmar)

SSGn shp, sbmrsbl, gdd mssl, clar (crs mssl sbmar)

SSK hrkllr cal sbmar

SSn shp, sbmrsbl, clar (fas aack sbmar)uAv mad aral hcl


42/44

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Some previous ASPI publicatios


44/44

Planning the unthinkable warAirSea Battle and its implications for Australia

As part of Americas rebalance towards the AsiaPacic region, Australias most

important ally has developed an AirSea Battle concept that aims to deter and, if

necessary, to defeat the Chinese military in a future conict. The aim is to reassure

its Asian allies and partners, including Australia, about the credibility of the US

defence commitment at a time when Chinas growing anti-access/area-denial

(A2/AD) capability is gradually eroding Americas maritime dominance in the Western

Pacic. While ofcially AirSea Battle isnt targeted against any specic country,

the US militarys increased focus on China has given it much prominence in the

strategic community. And some US policymakers consider Australia a key ally in

operationalising the concept. We certainly have a major interest in the emergence ofa credible US war-ghting strategy as a deterrent against a China thats increasingly

exing its military muscles. However, we also need to think through the potential

implications of AirSea Battle and our practical military contributions. After all, this is

about a potential military escalation with a major nuclear power.

There are no good military options for ghting a war against China, only least

bad ones. Seen through this lens, AirSea Battle has the potential to provide for

US-Sino deterrence stability by signalling American resolve and capability to resist

major Chinese attempts to change the status quo in East Asia by military means.

Australia should welcome it as such. At the same time, AirSea Battle cant provide a

panacea for lower level maritime conicts and it seems partially disconnected from

broader US China strategy. Further, Asian allies would benet from more detailedexplanations about the concepts concrete implementation. Also, unlike Japan, South

Korea and Taiwan, Australia is not a frontline state in an AirSea Battle context. Any

future Australian government will be able to make a noteworthy contribution to an

AirSea Battle framework independent of any public commitment to a concept thats

still in its early stages and that seems designed for a strategic environment in Asia

which is yet to emerge.

Planning the unthinkable war AirSea Battle and its implications for Australia.pdf

Documents

Transcript of Planning the unthinkable war AirSea Battle and its implications for Australia.pdf