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Planning for the Future:Status of Enrollment

Cedar Falls Community School District

January 2017

Discussion Points

Enrollment and Demographics Discussion (Part 1)

• Planning Areas

• Past Enrollment

• Baseline Data

• Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM)

• Model Components

• Issues and Assumptions

Development Discussion (Part 2)

• What is going on with development

Enrollment Projections Discussion (Part 3)

• District

• Elementary

• Secondary

Next Steps (Part 4)

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VISUALIZING SUCCESS

Founded in 2003

Professional educational planning firm

Expertise in multiple disciplines

Over 20 years of planning experience

Over 80 years of education experience

Over 20 years of GIS experience

Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota

Projection accuracy of 97% or greater

Robert SchwarzCEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP

Planning

GIS Analyst

Educators

Clay GuthmillerEducation Planner

Jay HarrisEducation Planner

David StoakesEducation Planner, Ed.D.

Brandon SylvesterGIS Analyst

Tyler LinkGIS Analyst

Susan SwiftEducation Planner, Ph.D.

Making it happen

Cedar Falls Community School District

• Administration

County, City & Others

• Black Hawk County

• City of Cedar Falls

• Census Bureau/ESRI

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Development Community

• Builders

• Developers

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• Projected enrollment indicates continued increases resulting in about 570 additional K-12 students through 2021/22 and 400 additional K-12 students through 2026/27 (overall 18% increase)

• Capacity Space Availability:

- Elementary School : Capacity challenges expected at 3 elementary schools over next 10 years (Aldrich, Cedar Heights, and Hansen)

o NOTE: ES capacity alleviated when Aldrich Elementary opens in 2018/19

- Junior High School : Adequate Districtwide Junior High capacity through 2023/24 where by 2024/25 Peet JH will be over its building capacity

- High School : Considerable capacity challenges beginning in 2019/20

• Abundant residential development opportunities exist resulting in an increasing future enrollment, as long as developments are affordable and economy remains positive

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District Map

• District Boundary (purple)

• City Limits

o Cedar Falls (purple)

o Waterloo (green)

• Major Streets

• Major water features

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Elementary Map (Current)


• Elementary Attendance Areas (solid colors)

• Major Streets


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Elementary Map (2018/19)


• Elementary Attendance Areas (solid colors) for 2018/19

• Major Streets


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Planning Areas

• By Land Use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial)

• By Residential Density (single-family, mobile, home, duplex, apartments)

• By Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks)

• By Manmade Features (Railroad and Streets)

• Over 300 planning areas

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Planning Area Detail Map

• Show the power of GIS information – zoomed into Orchard Hill Elementary

• See where students are located in relation to streets, subdivisions, parcels

• Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to the parcel

This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.

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Built-Out

Developing

Where:

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• Cohort Growth

• External Growth

• Kindergarten Change

• Economic Scenarios

County

City

Attendance Areas

Streets

Development

Students & People

Past School Enrollment

Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day countDoes not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

Examining the Trends• Largest class in 2016/17 – 4th grade (458)• Smallest class in 2016/17 – 11th grade (358)• Graduating senior class will likely be smaller than the next incoming Kindergarten class

Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total

2000/01 326 294 287 302 276 321 306 315 313 355 391 373 382 4,241

2001/02 268 312 290 283 307 281 317 311 311 319 362 393 375 4,129

2002/03 270 271 316 298 280 324 286 314 316 332 336 366 392 4,101

2003/04 308 285 294 339 333 299 350 301 318 327 360 333 397 4,244

2004/05 290 329 302 312 340 331 305 375 330 332 348 359 322 4,275

2005/06 297 322 347 313 319 344 333 322 371 336 328 335 358 4,325

2006/07 335 329 353 370 333 338 363 365 337 379 331 332 335 4,500

2007/08 324 339 323 342 365 309 334 346 350 333 369 325 317 4,376

2008/09 361 341 355 333 364 379 324 355 359 375 333 365 321 4,565

2009/10 414 329 328 340 320 337 372 315 330 350 360 313 319 4,427

2010/11 364 429 361 346 357 340 354 391 338 364 375 391 325 4,735

2011/12 400 364 404 357 334 356 338 354 367 340 336 363 358 4,671

2012/13 422 401 381 439 382 369 383 357 377 397 367 347 356 4,978

2013/14 399 429 400 383 434 375 371 386 360 374 399 351 327 4,988

2014/15 427 400 435 416 393 447 379 380 391 372 371 404 361 5,176

2015/16 406 423 405 449 422 392 444 384 383 386 358 379 420 5,251

2016/17 453 406 425 423 458 414 397 444 381 383 385 358 371 5,298

Source: Iowa Department o f Education (2000/01 to 2003/04) & Cedar Falls School District (2004/05 to 2016/17) Student Data

Alternative Students and other Special District Programming not included in these numbers

Regular K-12 Enrollment By Grade

Past School Enrollment Change


What Does This Mean• Largest average class increase – 2nd to 3rd grade (+16)• Largest average class decrease – 9th to 10th grade (-6)

o Significant change in enrollment trends from 3rd to 9th grade impacting past projections

Regular K-12 Enrollment Grade Change

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th

From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th

2000/01 2001/02 -58 -14 -4 -4 5 5 -4 5 -4 6 7 2 2

2001/02 2002/03 2 3 4 8 -3 17 5 -3 5 21 17 4 -1

2002/03 2003/04 38 15 23 23 35 19 26 15 4 11 28 -3 31

2003/04 2004/05 -18 21 17 18 1 -2 6 25 29 14 21 -1 -11

2004/05 2005/06 7 32 18 11 7 4 2 17 -4 6 -4 -13 -1

2005/06 2006/07 38 32 31 23 20 19 19 32 15 8 -5 4 0

2006/07 2007/08 -11 4 -6 -11 -5 -24 -4 -17 -15 -4 -10 -6 -15

2007/08 2008/09 37 17 16 10 22 14 15 21 13 25 0 -4 -4

2008/09 2009/10 53 -32 -13 -15 -13 -27 -7 -9 -25 -9 -15 -20 -46

2009/10 2010/11 -50 15 32 18 17 20 17 19 23 34 25 31 12

2010/11 2011/12 36 0 -25 -4 -12 -1 -2 0 -24 2 -28 -12 -33

2011/12 2012/13 22 1 17 35 25 35 27 19 23 30 27 11 -7

2012/13 2013/14 -23 7 -1 2 -5 -7 2 3 3 -3 2 -16 -20

2013/14 2014/15 28 1 6 16 10 13 4 9 5 12 -3 5 10

2014/15 2015/16 -21 -4 5 14 6 -1 -3 5 3 -5 -14 8 16

2015/16 2016/17 47 0 2 18 9 -8 5 0 -3 0 -1 0 -8

3-Yr Avg 18.0 -1.0 4.3 16.0 8.3 1.3 2.0 4.7 1.7 2.3 -6.0 4.3 6.0

3-Yr Wavg 12.7 -0.2 2.5 14.0 5.7 -5.5 1.8 2.2 0.0 -2.2 -4.8 0.0 -2.0

Source: Iowa Department o f Education (2000/01 to 2003/04) & Cedar Falls School District (2004/05 to 2016/17) Student Data

Alternative Students and other Special District Programming not included in these numbers

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In-Migration Map

• 2016/17 students who are in 1st through 12th grade that were not attending the district in 2015/16 as Kindergarten through 11th grade

• Who is new to the District that was not attending the previous year?

• Is it related to a particular type of Development (SF, MF, Dup)?

• Is it related to perceptions of a school building?

• 346 new students attending in 2014/15

• 347 new students attending in 2016/17

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Out-Migration

• Students attending the district in 2015/16 who were in Kindergarten through 11th grade that are not attending in 2016/17 as 1st through 12th grade

• Who was in the District that is not attending the current year?

• Is it related to a particular type of Development (SF, MF, Dup)?

• Is it related to perceptions of a school building?

• 263 students no longer attending in 2014/15 for an overall District migration of +83 student increase

• 329 students no longer attending in 2016/17 for an overall District migration of +18 students

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Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online from Census Data

Known Information

• Current enrollment is approximately 5,300 students

• New residential permits are consistent – new opportunities will be available

• 2016 average household size is approximately 2.41 persons

• Census estimated population within CFCSD by 2021 - over 43,500

• 2016 Census female population within CFCSD near 51.4%

• 2016 to 2021 Census household annual rate increase of 0.64%

Other things to Consider

• Building permits – new residential development is anticipated to be similar to slight increase compared to recent years

• Average household size should likely increase with younger families relocating to CFCSD community

• Younger aged households have a greater propensity for school aged children

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Census Map (Children Ages 0-4 in 2021)

• Density weighted by land area of each Census Block Group

• Red has the greatest density, Blue has the least

• This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment

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Census Map (Female Ages 15-59 in 2021)

• Density weighted by land area of each Census Block Group

• Red has the greatest density, Blue has the least

• This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment

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Planning Area Change Map (Count Difference)

• Depicts student movement at each Planning Area from 2012/13 to 2016/17

• Orange areas experienced an increase since 2012/13

• Green areas experienced a decrease since 2012/13

• White areas had no net change of students between 2012/13 and 2016/17

• New developments have a greater propensity to have more students in future years

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Planning Area Change Map (Density)

• Depicts student movement at each Planning Area from 2012/13 to 2016/17

• Enrollment change is weighted by land area of each Planning Area to show density per square mile

• Normalizes by the size of the planning area

• Orange areas experienced an increase since 2012/13

• Green areas experienced a decrease since 2012/13

• White areas had no net change of students between 2012/13 and 2016/17

• Shows change in students relative to land area

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2016/17 Student “Heat” Density Map

• Shows the number of students in each Planning Area, normalized by land area

• Red areas are most dense

• Gray areas least dense

• Concentrations where most desirable for households to choose to live

• Since 2014/15 the density is shifting west of 58 highway

Part 2:Development Discussion

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Development Trends

The above numbers reflect census population change, District enrollment change, and Certificate of Occupancies issued each year. Building Permits issued by the City of Cedar Falls are different from when the Certificate of Occupancy is Issued – based on permits issued when data updated should be closer to 100 units for 2016/17

Source: ESRI, Black Hawk County, City of Cedar Falls, Cedar Falls Community School District, and RSP

Yield Rate

What Does This MeanIn 2000/01 there were about 30 students for every 100 unitsIn 2016/17 there were about 33 students for every 100 units, an increase of 3 students since 2000/01Housing inventory increased by over 2,000 units resulting in more households and subsequently more students


Cedar Falls Schools Average Yield Rate per Residential Unit

School Total K to 6 7 to 9 10 to 12 District

Year K to 6 7 to 9 10 to 12 District Units Yield Rate Yield Rate Yield Rate Yield Rate

2000/01 1,806 934 1,501 4,241 13,807 0.131 0.068 0.109 0.307

2001/02 1,741 939 1,449 4,129 13,928 0.125 0.067 0.104 0.296

2002/03 1,759 916 1,426 4,101 14,047 0.125 0.065 0.102 0.292

2003/04 1,858 969 1,417 4,244 14,331 0.130 0.068 0.099 0.296

2004/05 1,904 1,010 1,361 4,275 14,538 0.131 0.069 0.094 0.294

2005/06 1,942 1,026 1,357 4,325 14,726 0.132 0.070 0.092 0.294

2006/07 2,058 1,065 1,377 4,500 14,880 0.138 0.072 0.093 0.302

2007/08 2,002 1,030 1,344 4,376 15,020 0.133 0.069 0.089 0.291

2008/09 2,133 1,038 1,394 4,565 15,138 0.141 0.069 0.092 0.302

2009/10 2,068 1,017 1,342 4,427 15,254 0.136 0.067 0.088 0.290

2010/11 2,197 1,083 1,455 4,735 15,379 0.143 0.070 0.095 0.308

2011/12 2,215 1,059 1,397 4,671 15,504 0.143 0.068 0.090 0.301

2012/13 2,394 1,117 1,467 4,978 15,626 0.153 0.071 0.094 0.319

2013/14 2,420 1,117 1,451 4,988 15,750 0.154 0.071 0.092 0.317

2014/15 2,518 1,150 1,508 5,176 15,870 0.159 0.072 0.095 0.326

2015/16 2,497 1,211 1,543 5,251 15,964 0.156 0.076 0.097 0.329

2016/17 2,579 1,222 1,497 5,298 15,966 0.162 0.077 0.094 0.332

Source: Iowa Department of Education (2000/01 to 2003/04) & Cedar Falls School District Student Data(2004/05 to 2016/17) & Black Hawk County

Grade Configuration

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Where Will Growth Occur?

• Will development continue similar to current rates?

• What housing products will be built (SF, MF, smaller or larger)?

• Will families be able to afford the available housing stock?

• Is the economic outlook for the Cedar Falls community positive?

• The market and property owners’ desire to build guides the timing of development

• Other properties not shown might develop while some shown might not develop

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Assumptions for the Future

• Mortgage interest rates have reached historic lows, will likely remain below 5%, but the trend is for that rate to increase during this time frame

• Subprime loans will have worked their way through the banking system

• The rate of foreclosures will likely be similar to current trends (decreasing) over the next five (5) years

• Recirculation of existing homes will remain stable (276 homes now listed Realtor.com)

• Final Platted developments with access to infrastructure are likely to develop

• Unemployment rates will remain below 6% (current estimates are just under 5% - based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data for Waterloo-Cedar Falls area)

• Fuel prices will remain between $2.00 and $4.00

• Private and Parochial school enrollment remains similar to past trends

Projection Accuracy from 2014/15 (year 2)

High School

• Projected 1,124

• Actual 1,114

• 99.1% Accuracy

District

• Projected 5,362

• Actual 5, 298

• 98.8% Accuracy

Elementary

• Projected 2,973

• Actual 2,976

• 99.9% Accuracy

Junior High

• Projected 1,265

• Actual 1,208

• 95.3% Accuracy

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NOTES:Junior High missed projection accuracy because enrollment growth experienced in those grades significantly changed from what it typically was in past years.

Past, Current & Future Enrollment

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The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment CountDoes not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

What Does This MeanEnrollment growth – increase anticipated to coincide with development activityNew ES coming online in 2018/19 will alleviate elementary capacity concerns with the enrollment increase

Source: Cedar Falls Community Schools and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

Elementary Enrollment Projections

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Projections illustrate what the attendance areas will be when Aldrich Elementary opens in the 2018/19 school year

School Current Student

Capacity Geography 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

Aldrich Elementary Res ide/Attend 0 0 0

Kdg to 6th 525 Res ide 0 0 0 0 366 375 398 412 442 463 490 516 546

Attend 0 0 0

Cedar Heights Elementary Res ide/Attend 475 494 485

Kdg to 6th 525 Res ide 485 509 495 506 515 530 537 548 554 545 545 545 545

Attend 485 516 497

Hansen Elementary Res ide/Attend 525 546 575

Kdg to 6th 625 Res ide 535 553 583 593 615 626 627 624 622 630 644 657 676

Attend 538 579 597

Lincoln Elementary Res ide/Attend 578 571 576

Kdg to 6th 525 Res ide 586 600 605 614 408 397 389 397 398 388 392 398 403

Attend 596 584 579

North Cedar Elementary Res ide/Attend 262 237 239

Kdg to 6th 350 Res ide 280 255 248 250 244 232 222 225 228 237 237 243 249

Attend 269 248 262

Orchard Hill Elementary Res ide/Attend 398 385 381

Kdg to 6th 475 Res ide 413 400 384 391 359 357 363 365 379 376 379 382 383

Attend 407 394 385

Southdale Elementary Res ide/Attend 590 612 651

Kdg to 6th 625 Res ide 598 624 661 687 585 581 594 589 593 581 584 574 575

Attend 602 620 656

ELEMENTARY TOTAL

Kdg to 6th 3,650 Res ide 2,897 2,941 2,976 3,041 3,092 3,098 3,130 3,160 3,216 3,220 3,271 3,315 3,377

Attend 2,897 2,941 2,976

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - November 2016

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student. Over School Capacity

Note 2: The Enrollment Model is based on a Headcount of students by Planning Area at each facility

Note 3: School capacity provided by the Cedar Falls School District - New Aldrich ES opens in 2018/19 as 525 capacity

Note 4: Transfers between facilities are not factored into the projections

Note 5: Attend is the facility the student has been assigned by the District

Note 6: Reside is the placement of a student in the model either geographically or by attenandance area for out of district students

Note 7: Reside/Attend are students that reside in the attendance area and attend that facility

Note 8: The Enrollment Model assumes ES(K-6), JH(7-9), and HS (10-12)

Past School Enrollment Projections Based on Residence

Secondary Enrollment Projections

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Projections illustrate what the attendance areas will be when Aldrich Elementary opens in the 2018/19 school year

School Current Student

Capacity Geography 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

Holmes Junior High Res ide/Attend

7th to 9th 750 Res ide 562 579 596 603 611 633 674 691 674 661 661 656 656

Attend 553 581 597

Peet Junior High Res ide/Attend

7th to 9th 750 Res ide 581 574 612 634 675 683 687 704 690 748 761 802 786

Attend 590 572 611

Cedar Falls High School Res ide/Attend

10th to 12th 1,200 Res ide 1,136 1,157 1,114 1,130 1,141 1,237 1,267 1,316 1,347 1,391 1,422 1,392 1,440

Attend 1,136 1,157 1,114

ELEMENTARY TOTAL

Kdg to 6th 3,650 Res ide 2,897 2,941 2,976 3,041 3,092 3,098 3,130 3,160 3,216 3,220 3,271 3,315 3,377

Attend 2,897 2,941 2,976

JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL

7th to 9th 1,500 Res ide 1,143 1,153 1,208 1,237 1,286 1,316 1,361 1,395 1,364 1,409 1,422 1,458 1,442

Attend 1,143 1,153 1,208

HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL

10th to 12th 1,200 Res ide 1,136 1,157 1,114 1,130 1,141 1,237 1,267 1,316 1,347 1,391 1,422 1,392 1,440

Attend 1,136 1,157 1,114

DISTRICT TOTALS

K to 12th 6,350 Res ide 5,176 5,251 5,298 5,408 5,519 5,651 5,758 5,871 5,927 6,020 6,115 6,165 6,259

Attend 5,176 5,251 5,298

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - November 2016

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student. Over School Capacity

Note 2: The Enrollment Model is based on a Headcount of students by Planning Area at each facility

Note 3: School capacity provided by the Cedar Falls School District - New Aldrich ES opens in 2018/19 as 525 capacity

Note 4: Transfers between facilities are not factored into the projections

Note 5: Attend is the facility the student has been assigned by the District

Note 6: Reside is the placement of a student in the model either geographically or by attenandance area for out of district students

Note 7: Reside/Attend are students that reside in the attendance area and attend that facility

Note 8: The Enrollment Model assumes ES(K-6), JH(7-9), and HS (10-12)

Past School Enrollment Projections Based on Residence

Part 4:Next Steps

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Key Considerations

• New developments will likely continue mostly on the west side of Cedar Falls near Union Road and between W. 12th Street and W. 27th Street. Additional opportunities are likely to the south of University Avenue and west of Hudson if and when Aldrich elementary facility opens in 2018/19 school year

• Building Permit activity should remain similar to the last couple of years (around 100 units annually) with the potential for it to be greater

• Future Kindergarten classes will likely exceed 450 students over the next five (5) years

• Economic conditions, development activity, Pre-K trends and Census trends for 0-4 children and women are variables to monitor for how well projections will become reality

• There are pressing capacity concerns at the elementary level as well as the high school level by 2019/20 with junior high having capacity challenges beyond the 2024/25 school year

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• District administration and the Board of Education further study the enrollment and development information in this presentation to determine if any minor changes might be needed for the elementary attendance areas when Aldrich Elementary comes online in 2018/19

• Administration continue to examine building utilization opportunities to improve the student education experience

• Continue to make decisions and communicate that information to the community so they can understand how educational opportunities will support World Class Education!

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Next Steps

Recommend that the District have an extensive Enrollment Analysis performed each year to ensure the best building and staffing decisions can be made, ensuring good stewardship of taxpayer support and student academic achievement

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