Planned future developments of EU-SILC Didier Dupré EUROSTAT – Unit F4 UNECE seminar on poverty...

Planned future developments ofEU-SILC

Didier Dupré EUROSTAT – Unit F4

UNECE seminar on poverty measurement, 5-6/05/2015

Modernisation of social statistics

• Policy context

Increased demand of timely and reliable data on the social situation in Europe, still more in economic crisis time

Social indicators at a par with economic indicators

• Modernisation of EU social statistics: increasing responsiveness to user needs and rationalisation in times of resource constraints

Streamlining and integration of data collections, modularisation of social surveys, more standardisation of variables and improved statistical frames.

Increased use of administrative dataUNECE seminar on poverty measurement, 5-6/05/2015 2

EU-SILC revision & improvements

• The ongoing revision of EU-SILC is part of the modernisation of social statistics

• The multidimensional aspect of living conditions and social inclusion / exclusion is also a key driver of the EU-SILC revision

• EU-SILC is a complex survey involving different challenging methodological problems

➜ The contribution from researchers is therefore a vital element for improving EU-SILC (variance, material deprivation, now-casting)

UNECE seminar on poverty measurement, 5-6/05/2015 3

Eurostat

5 strands, in and integrated approach looking at a coherent and complementary design:

• SILC contents (modularisation)

• Improvement of timeliness (already on-going)

• Improvement of the methodology (including regionalisation and precision requirements)

• Different modes of data collection (administrative data, CAPI, CATI, CAWI)

• Longitudinal component (from 4 to 6 years)

4

Strands for SILC revision


Eurostat

SILC Revision - contents

Eurostat

• Recommendations of the ESS:

se = standard error; p = proportion (value of the indicator); X is a figure stemming from the desired precision and is a function of the population (number of HH)

• National AROPE indicator confidence interval from ±1 pp for large countries to ±1.5 pp for small ones

• Regional AROPE indicator confidence interval from ±2.8 (regions > 2 million HH) to ±4.0 pp. (from 0.25 million HH)

• Standard error estimation based on linearization and coupled with the ultimate cluster approach (values and net changes) – developed by researchers (NetSILC2)

6

Precision requirements National and regional level


Eurostat

Significant evolutions? Net changes


MS 2008 2013 Y/N

EU 23.8 24.5 Y

BE 20.8 20.8 N

BG 44.8 48.0 (Y)

CZ 15.3 14.6 N

DK 16.3 18.9 Y

DE 20.1 20.3 N

EE 21.8 23.5 N

IE 23.7 29.5 Y

EL 28.1 35.7 Y

FR 18.5 18.1 N

IT 25.3 28.4 Y

CY 23.3 27.8 Y

LV 34.2 35.1 N

MS 2008 2013 Y/N

LT 27.8 30.8 (N)

LU 15.5 19.0 Y

HU 28.2 33.5 Y

MT 20.1 24.0 Y

NL 14.9 15.9 N

AT 20.6 18.8 (Y)

PL 30.5 25.8 Y

PT 26.0 27.4 N

RO 44.2 40.4 Y

SI 18.5 20.4 Y

SK 20.6 19.8 N

FI 17.4 16.0 Y

SE 14.9 16.4 Y

AROPE 2008 2013

Eurostat

• Policy needs: Strengthen indicators on year-to-year transition Improving the measurement of persistent-AROP Identify/monitor the recurrence of poverty

• Technical solutions:

Increase the sample-size keeping a 4 years rotational design; permanent cost not acceptable (although some increase for regionalisation); 3rd need not answered

Increase the number of years of the rotational design, to 6 years (or 8 years but drawbacks even more acute)

8

Longitudinal component


Eurostat9

Longitudinal componentyear: y y+2 y+4 y+6 y+8 y+10

Panel

P 1260 1008 907

p+1 1800 1260 1008 907

p+2 1800 1260 1008 907 489 440

p+3 1800 1260 1008 907 489 440

p+4 1800 1260 1008 907 489 440

p+5 1800 1260 1008 907 489 440

p+6 1374 962 770 693 624 562

p+7 1374 962 770 693 624 562

p+8 1374 962 770 693 624

p+9 1374 962 770 693

p+10 1374 962 770

p+11 1374 962

p+12 1374

Total annual sample 4975 4975 4975 5038 5180 4942 4728 4863 4985 4985

Of which for the Permanent AROP 907 907 907 1396 1836 1836 1622 1757 1879 1879

UNECE seminar on poverty measurement 5-6/05/2015

Eurostat

• Improve by 6 months the data availability of the whole EU-SILC (June N+1)

➜ 10/10/2014 – 27 MS (and IS, NO, CH) had submitted full EU-SILC 2014 data (legal deadline 30/11)

• To transmit just after the field work (end year N / beginning N+1) non-income data (interview in all countries) in particular on material deprivation (MD)

➜ Next slide

• To develop now-casting, in particular using existing micro-simulation models, e.g. EUROMOD, for flash estimates (tbd)

10

Improvement of timeliness – Action plan


Eurostat

11

Severe MD – Early data

2013 data published 06/2014, 16 MS

(and Norway and Iceland)

2014 data published 03/201517 MS

(and Iceland + CY now also available)

Improvementof timeliness


Eurostat

EU2020 target indicator (% people)

12

Multidimensional aspect of poverty

2012 2013

AROPE (at risk poverty & social exclusion) 24.7 24.5

AROP (monetary poverty) 16.8 16.6

SMD (severe material deprivation) 9.9 9.6

LWI (very low work intensity) 10.5 10.8


Eurostat

People at risk of poverty and social exclusion (2012: 124.1 ; 2013: 122.9 million)


Eurostat

• In the context of the mid-term EU2020 review, 2010 Council request to update indicators to fully reflect the multidimensional nature of poverty and social exclusion, incl. improved measures of MD, taking into account economic developments and improved measurement instruments

2009 EU-SILC ad hoc module:

About 50 MD items (incl. children), analysis dimensional structure as well as their suitability, validity, reliability, additivity and aggregation (researchers CEPS Luxembourg)

EU-SILC Task Force on MD proposed a basket of 13 items: 7 new items while 3 (durables) of the current 9 items would be removed

14

Improvement of MD measurement (1)


Eurostat

• To take an informed decision, collection on more years:

2013 EU-SILC: collect the 7 new adults (whole population) items on a voluntary basis (all MS except CZ, DK, SI)

2014 EU-SILC: ad hoc module (ahm) for collecting both the new adults and children MD items (compulsory)

2015 EU-SILC: 7 new items for the adults included in the 2015 ahm on social and cultural participation (compulsory)

• Currently, the 2013 ESS agreement data has been analysed by LISER – Luxembourg. The analysis confirms those on the 2009 module in terms of selection of items for measuring deprivation of adults

15



Eurostat

• 7 new items proposed:

household for which half or more of the adults suffer an enforced lack for:o replacing worn-out clothes by some new ones

o having two pairs of properly fitting shoes

o spending a small amount of money each week on him/herself

o having regular leisure activities

o getting together with friends/family for a drink/meal at least monthly

and for which the household cannot afford:o replacing worn-out furniture

o Having a computer (old) and(/or) an internet connection (new)16



Eurostat

• End 2015: elements for legal basis ready (80%)

• Workshops on best practices (Lisbon 10/2014, London 09/2015, Paris 12/2015, others in 2016, etc.)

• Preparation of guidelines, capacity building and preparatory work / tests in MS

• Implementation in the context of the forthcoming framework EP and Council Regulation on Integrated European Social Statistics, over 2018 – 2020

• But a lot already implemented with the current EU-SILC (timeliness, standard errors, possibly MD, etc.)

17

Time schedule for EU-SILC revision


Conclusions• The expectations on high quality and timely data to analyse

the social situation have increased among users as a consequence of the economic crisis

• EU-SILC is in this context particularly solicited • The revision of EU-SILC tries to respond to these demands;

some elements are already being implemented in the current EU-SILC

• This process tackles also some specific aspects of EU-SILC needing improvements

• The complexity of EU-SILC makes also indispensable the use of tools developed by researchers


Planned future developments of EU-SILC Didier Dupré EUROSTAT – Unit F4 UNECE seminar on poverty...

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