PITTSBURGH PUBLIC SCHOOLS · 2019-11-04 · •Cooperative Strategies developed two sets of...

PITTSBURGH PUBLIC SCHOOLS

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS


NOVEMBER 4, 2019

PITTSBURGH PUBLIC SCHOOLS 1

E N R O L L M E N T P R O J E C T I O N SBY WHERE STUDENTS LIVE & ATTEND

• Cooperative Strategies developed two sets of enrollment projections for Pittsburgh Public Schools

Based on where students live (by ES Boundary)

• Reviewed historical student data from 2013-14 through 2018-19 of students tracked by PPS living within the PPS boundary

Based on where students attend (by School)

• Reviewed historical enrollment from 2009-10 through 2018-19


E N R O L L M E N T P R O J E C T I O N S B Y B O U N D A RY

• Based on where students live

• Includes students who attend charter & non-PPS schools

• Does NOT reflect actual school enrollment

• Useful for planning based on projected growth / decline in areas of a district

• Does not account for open enrollment / transfers

• Ideal for:

Districts preparing for or recently completed redistricting

Growing districts

Districts planning school facilities


E N R O L L M E N T P R O J E C T I O N S B Y S C H O O L

• Projects student enrollment in school facilities (regardless of residence)

• Useful for planning / budgeting / staffing based on projected growth / decline in schools within a district

• Accounts for open enrollment / transfers

• Ideal for:

Districts that have multiple schools and want projections by school (not for districts that have only one ES, one MS, one HS)

Districts planning facilities but do NOT have good student data


E N R O L L M E N T P R O J E C T I O N SBY WHERE STUDENTS LIVE & ATTEND

• Recommended, low, moderate, and high projections were developed

• Recommended = based on more recent trends in the District

• Low = conservative approach

• Moderate projection = in this case reflects a 3 year weighted average of survival ratios

• High projection = liberal approach


C O H O RT S U RV I VA L M E T H O D BY WHERE STUDENTS LIVE & ATTEND

• Uses historical live birth data and historical student enrollment to “age” (or progress) a known population (cohort) throughout the school grades

• Survival ratios analyzed

• Projection ratios developed


B I RT H D ATA

• Birth data is used to project kindergarten enrollment 5 years later

Year # of live births2002 3,6852003 3,6472004 3,6712005 3,7692006 3,4932007 3,8552008 3,7912009 3,7522010 3,6392011 3,6722012 3,5452013 3,5032014 3,4422015 3,3352016 3,3942017 3,246

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTSPITTSBURGH

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTSPITTSBURGH


S C H O O L - A G E D P O P U L AT I O N C H A N G E2018-2023

• Total population in Allegheny County is estimated to increase by less than 1% from 2018 to 2023.

• School age population (ages 5-18) in Lucas County is estimated to decrease by 2,382 children, or approximately 1% from 2018 to 2023.

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000

Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages 11-13 Ages 14-18

ALLEGHENY COUNTYPOPULATION ESTIMATES

2018 2023


B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S• Building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student

enrollment

Year Single-Family Multi-Family2000 182 672001 86 652002 145 4962003 106 1032004 131 152005 65 02006 123 62007 117 02008 185 02009 118 02010 147 02011 284 02012 137 02013 100 02014 89 2492015 82 1,1882016 63 3732017 66 4102018* 80 496

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database

BUILDING PERMITSPITTSBURGH, PA

*preliminary through October 2018

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,400

BUILDING PERMITSPITTSBURGH, PA

Single-Family Multi-Family


ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY ELEMENTARY BOUNDARY(WHERE STUDENTS LIVE)


H I S T O R I C A L E N R O L L M E N T B Y B O U N D A RYBASED ON STUDENT DATA

Grade 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19PK 6,202 5,395 1,810 1,773 1,572 1,820K 3,015 2,860 2,616 2,546 2,512 2,5891 3,027 2,969 2,763 2,555 2,558 2,5182 2,715 2,892 2,781 2,635 2,461 2,6133 2,705 2,664 2,704 2,636 2,586 2,5034 2,642 2,635 2,518 2,613 2,571 2,5555 2,582 2,559 2,490 2,401 2,568 2,6216 2,619 2,541 2,378 2,386 2,296 2,5537 2,570 2,557 2,414 2,310 2,347 2,3568 2,664 2,541 2,452 2,323 2,264 2,4299 2,713 2,759 2,558 2,527 2,459 2,485

10 2,652 2,583 2,503 2,396 2,368 2,41011 2,468 2,582 2,347 2,370 2,277 2,34812 2,541 2,405 2,508 2,374 2,347 2,330

Grand Total 41,115 39,942 34,842 33,845 33,186 34,130Source: Pittsburgh Public Schools

Historical Enrollment - District-wideGrade 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

PK 6,202 5,395 1,810 1,773 1,572 1,820K - 5 16,686 16,579 15,872 15,386 15,256 15,3996 - 8 7,853 7,639 7,244 7,019 6,907 7,338

9 - 12 10,374 10,329 9,916 9,667 9,451 9,573K - 12 34,913 34,547 33,032 32,072 31,614 32,310

Grand Total 41,115 39,942 34,842 33,845 33,186 34,130Source: Pittsburgh Public Schools

Historical Enrollment - District-wide

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - DISTRICT-WIDE

**Based on students tracked by PPS – not a projection of actual PPS student enrollment


H I S T O R I C A L E N R O L L M E N T B Y B O U N D A RY

• 2018-19 School Year Breakdown – total 34,130 students tracked by PPS living within the PPS boundary:

64% PPS students

13% charter students

23% non-PPS & non-charter students 59% 60% 65% 65% 64% 64%

31%30%

23%23%

22%23%

10%10%

11%11%

11%13%

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SY1314 SY1415 SY1516 SY1617 SY1718 SY1819

Enro

llmen

t

School Year

Pittsburgh Public Schools, Enrollment by Organization and School Year

PPS School Non PPS School Charter*

*Charters are considered Non PPS but are counted separately from Non PPS in this graph



P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T B Y B O U N D A RY

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Historical & Projected Enrollment - Pittsburgh Public Schools

Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High



P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T B Y B O U N D A RYRECOMMENDED

Grade 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29PK 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820K 2,516 2,435 2,482 2,368 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,4281 2,587 2,513 2,435 2,478 2,368 2,429 2,429 2,429 2,429 2,4292 2,476 2,546 2,471 2,394 2,435 2,330 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,3863 2,593 2,453 2,522 2,450 2,375 2,415 2,313 2,368 2,368 2,3684 2,453 2,541 2,401 2,474 2,397 2,325 2,365 2,261 2,318 2,3185 2,551 2,449 2,533 2,402 2,470 2,393 2,321 2,358 2,256 2,3126 2,556 2,483 2,381 2,470 2,339 2,408 2,330 2,261 2,298 2,1997 2,581 2,584 2,507 2,407 2,495 2,361 2,435 2,357 2,285 2,3228 2,358 2,580 2,581 2,508 2,413 2,500 2,364 2,440 2,359 2,2869 2,583 2,489 2,732 2,730 2,654 2,551 2,637 2,505 2,573 2,495

10 2,374 2,456 2,373 2,599 2,601 2,527 2,428 2,515 2,383 2,44611 2,336 2,301 2,382 2,302 2,520 2,522 2,445 2,359 2,439 2,31512 2,350 2,340 2,303 2,380 2,305 2,519 2,526 2,450 2,361 2,450

Grand Total 34,134 33,990 33,923 33,782 33,620 33,528 33,227 32,937 32,703 32,574Source: Cooperative Strategies

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wideGrade 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820K - 5 15,176 14,937 14,844 14,566 14,473 14,320 14,242 14,230 14,185 14,2416 - 8 7,495 7,647 7,469 7,385 7,247 7,269 7,129 7,058 6,942 6,807

9 - 12 9,643 9,586 9,790 10,011 10,080 10,119 10,036 9,829 9,756 9,706K - 12 32,314 32,170 32,103 31,962 31,800 31,708 31,407 31,117 30,883 30,754


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide


05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT -RECOMMENDED - DISTRICT-WIDE


ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY SCHOOL

(WHERE STUDENTS ATTEND)


H I S T O R I C A L E N R O L L M E N T B Y S C H O O LGrade 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

PK 1,910 2,012 1,735 1,602 1,612 1,569 1,317 1,927 1,328 1,490K 2,142 2,143 2,064 2,282 2,310 1,996 1,985 1,943 1,832 1,8641 2,136 2,169 2,042 2,044 2,226 2,089 1,969 1,790 1,898 1,7312 2,046 2,070 1,974 1,927 1,914 1,964 2,044 1,781 1,754 1,7763 2,006 2,048 1,902 1,903 1,820 1,747 1,933 1,832 1,752 1,6694 2,046 1,964 1,947 1,831 1,841 1,720 1,764 1,834 1,782 1,6655 1,937 2,022 1,901 1,923 1,765 1,704 1,697 1,643 1,775 1,7296 1,963 1,918 1,962 1,842 1,860 1,685 1,727 1,624 1,586 1,7017 1,849 1,992 1,842 1,948 1,808 1,732 1,683 1,681 1,645 1,5908 2,004 1,847 1,926 1,787 1,916 1,697 1,732 1,606 1,655 1,6199 2,110 2,188 1,913 1,958 1,856 1,838 1,873 1,852 1,803 1,713

10 2,072 2,027 1,803 1,765 1,785 1,712 1,704 1,701 1,715 1,63911 1,849 1,882 1,806 1,697 1,645 1,695 1,590 1,554 1,613 1,59512 1,875 1,700 1,836 1,783 1,683 1,509 1,649 1,484 1,552 1,550

Grand Total 27,945 27,982 26,653 26,292 26,041 24,657 24,667 24,252 23,690 23,331Source: Pittsburgh Public Schools

Historical Enrollment - District-wideGrade 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

PK 1,910 2,012 1,735 1,602 1,612 1,569 1,317 1,927 1,328 1,490K - 5 12,313 12,416 11,830 11,910 11,876 11,220 11,392 10,823 10,793 10,4346 - 8 5,816 5,757 5,730 5,577 5,584 5,114 5,142 4,911 4,886 4,910

9 - 12 7,906 7,797 7,358 7,203 6,969 6,754 6,816 6,591 6,683 6,497K - 12 26,035 25,970 24,918 24,690 24,429 23,088 23,350 22,325 22,362 21,841

Grand Total 27,945 27,982 26,653 26,292 26,041 24,657 24,667 24,252 23,690 23,331Source: Pittsburgh Public Schools

Historical Enrollment - District-wide


H I S T O R I C A L E N R O L L M E N T B Y S C H O O L

• PK-12 enrollment decreased by 4,614 students from the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school year

• 2018-19 enrollment (PK-12) was 23,331

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - DISTRICT-WIDE


P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T B Y S C H O O L

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Historical & Projected Enrollment - Pittsburgh Public Schools

Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High


P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T B Y S C H O O LRECOMMENDED

Grade 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29PK 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490K 1,855 1,797 1,831 1,751 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,7941 1,781 1,771 1,714 1,743 1,670 1,712 1,712 1,712 1,712 1,7122 1,648 1,698 1,690 1,636 1,661 1,590 1,630 1,630 1,630 1,6303 1,713 1,589 1,641 1,625 1,575 1,603 1,533 1,572 1,572 1,5724 1,615 1,660 1,542 1,588 1,578 1,529 1,555 1,489 1,524 1,5245 1,610 1,560 1,604 1,492 1,532 1,523 1,476 1,501 1,435 1,4696 1,738 1,598 1,544 1,592 1,478 1,518 1,504 1,458 1,482 1,4157 1,728 1,765 1,626 1,573 1,620 1,502 1,544 1,533 1,480 1,5078 1,537 1,682 1,712 1,577 1,523 1,573 1,459 1,498 1,485 1,4359 1,686 1,647 1,803 1,826 1,687 1,632 1,684 1,560 1,603 1,591

10 1,586 1,545 1,517 1,660 1,677 1,551 1,501 1,547 1,436 1,47511 1,547 1,501 1,460 1,431 1,567 1,585 1,464 1,420 1,461 1,35512 1,609 1,564 1,522 1,475 1,445 1,586 1,604 1,484 1,434 1,478


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wideGrade 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490 1,490K - 5 10,222 10,075 10,022 9,835 9,810 9,751 9,700 9,698 9,667 9,7016 - 8 5,003 5,045 4,882 4,742 4,621 4,593 4,507 4,489 4,447 4,357

9 - 12 6,428 6,257 6,302 6,392 6,376 6,354 6,253 6,011 5,934 5,899K - 12 21,653 21,377 21,206 20,969 20,807 20,698 20,460 20,198 20,048 19,957


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide

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PROJECTED ENROLLMENT -RECOMMENDED - DISTRICT-WIDE


FA C T O R S T O C O N S I D E R

• It is important to continue to monitor enrollment trends and live birth trends as these factors impact future enrollment

• The following factors can also cause significant change in projected student enrollment

• Boundary changes• New school openings• Changes / additions in program

offerings• Preschool programs• Change in grade configuration• Student transfer policy changes• Interest rates / unemployment

shifts

• Magnet / charter / private school opening or closure

• Zoning changes• Unplanned new housing activity• Planned, but not built, housing• School voucher programs• School closure


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