PISA 2009 Evaluating systems to improve education

11P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

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ent

Wha

t stu

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r9

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11

PISA 2009Evaluating systems to improve

education

Andreas SchleicherSpecial advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy

Head of the Indicators and Analysis Division, EDU

Programme for International Student Assessment

The yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards alone but the best performing

education systems

22P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

essm

ent

Wha

t stu

dent

s kn

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nd c

an d

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as S

chle

iche

r9

Apr

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11

There is nowhere to hideThe yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national

standards but the best performing education systems

33P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

essm

ent

Wha

t stu

dent

s kn

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nd c

an d

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r9

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11

A world of change in baseline qualifications

Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Czec

h Re

publ

ic

Esto

nia

Ger

man

ySw

itzer

land

Den

mar

k Ca

nada

N

orw

aySw

eden

Ru

ssia

n Fe

dera

tion4

Aust

ria3

Slov

enia

Isra

elSl

ovak

Rep

ublic

New

Zea

land

H

unga

ry

Finl

and

Uni

ted

King

dom

3N

ethe

rland

sLu

xem

bour

g EU

19 a

vera

geO

ECD

ave

rage

Fran

ceAu

stra

lia

Icel

and

Belg

ium

Pola

ndIr

elan

dKo

rea

Chile

2G

reec

eIt

aly

Spai

nTu

rkey

Po

rtug

al

Mex

ico

Braz

il2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s

%

1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 20043. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

13

1

1

2714

23

AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1995Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)

Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – higher education

Graduate supply

Cost

per

st

uden

t


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1995Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)



United States

Finland

Graduate supply

Cost

per

st

uden

t

Japan

Sweden


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2000Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)



AustraliaFinlandUnited

Kingdom


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2001Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)




0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2002Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)




0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2003Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)




0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2004Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)




0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2005Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)




0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2006Ex

pend

iture

per

stud

ent a

t ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)



United States

Australia

Finland

United Kingdom

Sweden

1313P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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dent

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chle

iche

r9

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11

1998PISA countries in 20002001200320062009

77%81%83%85%86%Coverage of world economy 87%

PISA 2009 in brief Over half a million students…

representing 28 million 15-year-olds in 74* countries/economies

… took an internationally agreed 2-hour test… Goes beyond testing whether students can

reproduce what they were taught……to assess students’ capacity to extrapolate from what

they know and creatively apply their knowledge in novel situations

…and responded to questions on… their personal background, their schools

and their engagement with learning and school Parents, principals and system leaders provided data

on… school policies, practices, resources and institutional

factors that help explain performance differences .* Data for Costa Rica, Georgia, India, Malaysia, Malta, Mauritius, Venezuela and Vietnam will be published in December

2011

1515P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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l Stu

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11

What 15-year-olds can do

1616P

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CD

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r9

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11Average performanceof 15-year-olds in reading – extrapolate and apply

High reading performance

Low reading performance … 17 countries perform below this line

1525354555440.000

460.000

480.000

500.000

520.000

540.000

560.000Shanghai-China

KoreaFinlandHong Kong-China

Singapore CanadaNew ZealandJapanAustralia

NetherlandsBelgium Norway, EstoniaSwitzerlandPoland, IcelandUnited States LiechtensteinSwedenGermany,IrelandFrance, Chinese TaipeiDenmarkUnited KingdomHungary,

PortugalMacao-China ItalyLatviaSlovenia GreeceSpainCzech RepublicSlovak Republic, Croatia

IsraelLuxembourg,Austria Lithuania

TurkeyDubai (UAE) Russian Federation

Chile

Serbia

NortheastMidwest

WestSouth

Urban schools

Suburban schools

Performance distribution in US18% do not reach baseline Level 2 (16% when excluding immigrants) (Finland 6%, Canada 9%)

Economic cost: 72 trillion $10% are top performers (Shanghai 20%)

1717P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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s kn

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chle

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r9

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11Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply

Low average performanceLarge socio-economic disparities

High average performanceLarge socio-economic disparities

Low average performanceHigh social equity

High average performanceHigh social equity

Strong socio-economic impact on

student performance

Socially equitable distribution of

learning opportunities


Low reading performance

1818P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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dent

Ass

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11Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik






student performance





AustraliaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUKUS

2009

1525354555

2009

1919P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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dent

Ass

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as S

chle

iche

r9

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student performance






2009

2020P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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s kn

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as S

chle

iche

r9

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student performance






2000

2121P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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l Stu

dent

Ass

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chle

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r9

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student performance






2000

Other rapid improvers in reading:Peru, Indonesia, Latvia, Israel and Brazil

Rapid improvers in mathematics:Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Greece, Portugal, Italy

and GermanyRapid improvers in science:

Qatar, Turkey, Portugal, Korea, Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Norway, United States, Poland

2222P

ISA

OE

CD

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gram

me

for

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l Stu

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Ass

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t stu

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s kn

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r9

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11 Quality differences between schools

2323P

ISA

OE

CD

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for

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Ass

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t stu

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11

ArgentinaIta

ly

Turke

yIsr

ael

Germany

Hungary

Austria

Luxem

bourgJapan

Uruguay

Brazil

Sloven

ia

Croatia

United States

Singap

ore

Kyrgyzst

an

Montenegro

Albania

Slovak

Republic

Kazakh

stan

Ireland

Chinese Taipei

Switz

erland

New Zealand

Shan

ghai-China

Russian Federation

Sweden

Indonesia

PolandLat

via

Thail

and

Norway

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Variability in student performance between and within schools

Varia

nce

Performance variation of students within schools

Performance differences between schools

2424P

ISA

OE

CD

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gram

me

for

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11

-2 -1 0 1 2350

643

School performance and socio-economic background United States

Stud

ent p

erfo

rman

ce

AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background

Disadvantage

School performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools

Private school Public school in rural area Public school in urban area

700

2525P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

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me

for

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Ass

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r9

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11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Percentage of resilient students among disadvantaged students%

More than 30% resilient students

among disadvantaged students

Between 15%-30% of resilient students among

disadvantaged students

Less than 15% resilient students among disadvantaged

students

Resilient student: Comes from the bottom quarter of the socially most disadvantaged

students but performs among the top quarter of students internationally (after

accounting for social background)

2626P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

Inte

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Ass

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as S

chle

iche

r7

Dec

embe

r 201

0Policies and practices

Learning climate

Discipline

Teacher behaviour

Parental pressure

Teacher-student relationships

Dealing with heterogeneity

Grade repetition

Prevalence of tracking

Expulsions

Ability grouping (all subjects)

Standards /accountability

Nat. examination

Standardised tests

PolicySystem

RSchool

REquity

E

2727P

ISA

OE

CD

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me

for

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11Additional points on US

Positive student-teacher relationships But considerable variation and the quarter of

students reporting poorest relationships are 1.6 times more likely to be also poor performers

Reasonable disciplinary climate But considerable variation and the quarter of

students reporting poorest discipline are twice as likely to be also poor performers

Considerable school autonomy on resource allocation but limited autonomy on curriculum and instruction

The former matters in combination with accountability

The latter matters consistently

2828P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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dent

Ass

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t stu

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11

Does it all matter?

2929P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

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ent

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r9

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11

Age 19

Age 21

Age 21

048

121620

Level 2Level 3

Level 4Level 5

Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15

(Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother

tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1)Odds ratio

higher education entry

School marks at age 15

PISA performance at age

15

3030P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

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ent

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t stu

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s kn

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an d

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as S

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iche

r9

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11

What does it all mean?

3131P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

Inte

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iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

essm

ent

Wha

t stu

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s kn

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as S

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r9

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11

Commitment to

universal achievemen

tGoals,

gateways, instructional

systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentives and

accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system

Coherence

Lessons from PISA on successful

education systems

A commitment to education and the belief that competencies can be learned and therefore all children can achieve

Universal educational standards and personalisation as the approach to heterogeneity in the student body…

…as opposed to a belief that students have different destinations to be met with different expectations, and selection/stratification as the approach to heterogeneity

Clear articulation who is responsible for ensuring student success and to whom

3232P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

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dent

Ass

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Commitment to universal achievement

Goals, gateways, instructional

systems


Incentives and accountability


A learning system

Coherence


education systems

Clear ambitious goals that are shared across the system and aligned with high stakes gateways and instructional systems

Well established delivery chain through which curricular goals translate into instructional systems, instructional practices and student learning (intended, implemented and achieved)

High level of metacognitive content of instruction

3333P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

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for

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systems




A learning system

Coherence


education systems

Capacity at the point of delivery Attracting, developing and retaining high

quality teachers and school leaders and a work organisation in which they can use their potential

Instructional leadership and human resource management in schools

Keeping teaching an attractive profession System-wide career development

3434P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

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me

for

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Ass

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11 Lessons from PISA on successful

education systems



systems




A learning system

Coherence Incentives, accountability, knowledge

management Aligned incentive structures

For students How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature

of the incentives operating on students at each stage of their education

Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and study hard

Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing wellFor teachers Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation Improve their own performance

and the performance of their colleagues Pursue professional development opportunities

that lead to stronger pedagogical practices A balance between vertical and lateral accountability Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge

and spread innovation – communication within the system and with stakeholders around it

A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act

3737P

ISA

OE

CD

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gram

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for

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11

Systems with more accountability Systems with less

accountability

480

490

500

Schools with less autonomy

Schools with more autonomy

495

School autonomy in re-source allocation

System’s accountability arrangements

PISA score in reading

School autonomy, accountability and student performance

Impact of school autonomy on performance in systems with and without accountability arrangements

3838P

ISA

OE

CD

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gram

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for

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11Public and private schools

AustraliaAustriaCanada

ChileCzech Republic

DenmarkEstoniaFinland

GermanyGreece

HungaryIcelandIreland

IsraelItaly

JapanKorea

LuxembourgMexico

NetherlandsNew Zealand

NorwayPoland

PortugalSlovak Republic

SloveniaSpain

SwedenSwitzerland

TurkeyUnited Kingdom

United StatesArgentina

BrazilHong Kong-China

IndonesiaJordan

Russian FederationShanghai-China

SingaporeChinese Taipei

0 20 40 60 80 100

Government schoolsGovernment dependent private Government independent private

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100

Difference after accounting for socio-economic background of students and schoolsObserved performance difference

Private schools perform better

Public schools perform better

%

Score point difference

3939P

ISA

OE

CD

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systems




A learning system

Coherence


education systems Investing resources where they can make

most of a difference Alignment of resources with key challenges

(e.g. attracting the most talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms)

Effective spending choices that prioritise high quality teachers over smaller classes

4040P

ISA

OE

CD

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systems




A learning system

Coherence


education systems

A learning system An outward orientation of the system to

keep the system learning, international benchmarks as the ‘eyes’ and ‘ears’ of the system

Recognising challenges and potential future threats to current success, learning from them, designing responses and implementing these

4141P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

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for

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systems




A learning system

Coherence


education systems

Coherence of policies and practices Alignment of policies

across all aspects of the system Coherence of policies

over sustained periods of time Consistency of implementation Fidelity of implementation

(without excessive control)

4242P

ISA

OE

CD

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Some students learn at high levels

All students need to learn at high levels

Student inclusion

Routine cognitive skills, rote learning

Learning to learn, complex ways of

thinking, ways of workingCurriculum, instruction and assessment

Few years more than secondary

High-level professional knowledge workers

Teacher quality

‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical

Flat, collegial

Work organisation

Primarily to authorities

Primarily to peers and stakeholders

Accountability

Education reform trajectoriesThe old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system

4343P

ISA

OE

CD

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11

Thank you !

Find out more about PISA at… OECD www.pisa.oecd.org

– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database

U.S. White House www.data.gov

Email: [email protected]

…and remember:Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

http://www.pisa.oecd.org/

http://www.data.gov/

PISA 2009 Evaluating systems to improve education

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