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Food Security and Agricultural Production

in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries:

10 years after the Uruguay Round

Prabhu Pingali and Randy StringerAgricultural and Development Economics DivisionFAO, United Nations, Rome

Capri ConferenceJune 2003

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Food Prices

Food Imports

Food Aid

Overall Food Security

What are the Post Uruguay Round food securitytrends in the LIFDCs?

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Low-income food-deficit countries

Classification

1. LIFDC com dep - 23 countriesSingle commodity dependent exporters

2. LIFDC others 49 countriesNon commodity dependent countries

3. China

4. India

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Dimensions of Food Security

Availability Access Stability

Domestic production

Import capacity

Food aid

Income distribution /Poverty

Markets and infrastructure

capacity

Weather variability

Price variability

Complex emergencies

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Food Security Status - Availability

Per capita food

consumption1999-01

Kcal/cap/day

% change in per capita food

consumption

88/91 to 99/01 96/98 to 99/01

LIFDC com dep 2314 2.7 1.7

LIFDC others 2285 3.0 3.1

China 2972 12 0.8

India 2493 7.6 1.2

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

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Food Security Status - Availability

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

Import Capacity = Exports - Debt

Food Imports

Before UR1989-91

After UR1998-2000

LIFDC com dep 34.1% 27.8%

LIFDC others 26.0% 23.2%

China 5.9% 1.2%

India 3.5% 2.4%

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Food Security Status - Availability

High dependence on agricultural exports 1999-2001

export earnings as % of merchandise exports

Source: FAO

92

67

56

45

42

42

38

37

32

30

28

28

28

2827

26

25

23

23

22

19

17

88

0 20 40 60 80 100

BurundiGuinea-Bissau

MalawiEthiopiaUgandaRwanda

Burkina FasoKiribati

BeninChadCuba

Sao Tome and PrincipeKenya

ComorosMali

Vanuatu

Cte d'Ivoire

GhanaNicaragua

AfghanistanTanzania

GuatemalaHonduras

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

price of coffee (/lb.)

1985 = 100

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Food Security Status - Availability

Wheat f.o.b.

0

50

100

150

200

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Rice f.o.b.

0

50

100

150

200

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2002, CD-Rom

Maize c.i.f.

0

40

80

120

160

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Trends in real cereal prices (1982 = 100)

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Food Security Status - Availability

Source: FAO

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

Cereal Aid (million tonnes)

Import value at base year 1989-91 , quantity (billion US$)

Food prices and food aid

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Food Security Status - Access

Incidence of undernourishment

LIFDC com dep36%

106 million persons

LIFDC others 22%249 million persons

China9%

119 million persons

India24%

233 million persons

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

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Food Security Status - Access

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sub-Saharan

Africa

South Asia Latin America and

Caribbean

East Asia

1990 1999 2015

Millions of persons in poverty (US$1/day)

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Food Security Status - Access

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

Percentage undernourished by trade status

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Food Security Status - Stability

Coefficient of variationof food consumption

Probability of shortfall inconsumption below 95%of trend for 1980-2001

LIFDC com dep 8.5 22%

LIFDC others 5.2 14.5%

China 2.2 1%

India 3.6 8%

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

Measures of consumption stability

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Common Arguments for Special Treatment

Trade liberalisation damages food security

Agriculture plays a special role in developing countries

Low income country agricultural sectors lack the necessary institutional

and capital support

Food security is an important development need

Low income producers in developing countries are too vulnerable to

international price variations

Special protection is justified because of the asymmetry of support