Pike Research Overview · Navigant Research provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology...

M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E • A N A L Y S I S • B E N C H M A R K I N G

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,

or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

Navigant Research Alternative Drivetrain Overview

Dave Hurst

Principal Research Analyst

Hybrid, Propane, and Natural Gas Vehicles

October 2, 2013

Navigant Research provides in-depth analysis of global

clean technology markets.

The team’s research methodology combines supply-side

industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand

assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to

provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy

ecosystem.

Introduction

2 ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.

Sector Focus:

Smart Energy

Smart Utilities

Smart Transportation

Smart Industry

Smart Buildings

Research Offerings:

Research Reports

Subscription Research Services

Custom Market Research

• Go-To-Market Strategy

• Custom Market Analysis

• Market Sizing & Forecasts

• Primary Research

• Technology Evaluation

• Commercial Due Diligence

• Competitive Benchmarking

• Strategic Advisory Sessions

Smart Energy Ecosystem


Research Methodology


INFORMATION COLLECTION

Supply Side

Demand Side

MARKET ANALYSIS

Primary Research Secondary Research

• Executive Interviews

• Vendor Briefings

• Product Demos and Tours

• Company News & Financials

• Technology & Product Specs

• Government Data

• Economic, Demographic Data

• Consumer Surveys

• Business Leader Surveys

• Case Studies

• Reference Customers

Qualitative Quantitative

• Business Models & Trends

• Technology Issues

• Policy & Regulatory Factors

• Competitive Landscape

• Profiles of Key Players

• Market Sizing

• Segmentation by Technology,

Geography, Application, etc.

• Market Share Analysis

• Forecasts by Segment

Smart Transportation Program

5 .

Electric Vehicles

Light Electric Vehicles

Natural Gas Vehicles

Commercial Vehicle Innovations

Advanced Transportation Technologies

SMART

TRANSPORTATION

©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.

Light Duty Vehicles

Cumulative Hybrid Electric Vehicle/

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Ownership


(Source: Navigant Research)

Cumulative Light Duty Vehicles by Drivetrain, North America: 2013-2020

» Light duty hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) registrations in 2013 are estimated to be 2.8 million in

North America, reaching 7.2 million by 2020

» In 2020, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership is

to reach 2.4 million vehicles, with PHEVs outnumbering BEVs by 1.5 to 1

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Mil

lio

ns

)

BEV

PHEV

HEV

FCV

» Compressed natural gas (CNG), Propane, and electric vehicles are likely to coexist for many years as the

products tend to fill separate niches (consumer vs. fleet or city vehicles vs. longer range vehicles)

» Electric and hybrid vehicles will have higher sales due to the manufacturers’ focus on consumer market;

however, CNG, BEV, and PHEV vehicles have similar growth rates

Natural Gas/Propane

Vehicle Impact on Electric Vehicles

8



Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain, North America: 2013-2020

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

BEV

PHEV

HEV

Propane

CNG

(Veh

icle

s)

Alternative Fuel Fleet Sales Mix



Percentage of Light Duty Vehicles Fleet Sales by Drivetrain, North America: 2013-2020

» Light duty CNG vehicle fleet sales are anticipated to surpass hybrids in 2014, due in large

part to strong light truck availability

» Gasoline and diesel vehicles are expected to remain drivetrain leader (more than 95% of fleet

sales)

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(% o

f S

ale

s)

Propane CNGFCV HEVPEV Gasoline/Diesel

» Based on rolling averages of historic fuel prices, annual growth of 8% for gasoline and 9% for

diesel is expected › Gas will be $4.85 in 2017 and reach $6.06 by 2020

› Diesel will be $5.85 in 2017 and $7.60 by 2020

» CAFE requirements of 54.5 mpg combined by 2025

Forecasted Petroleum Costs



Average Petroleum Fuel Prices by Type, United States: 2012-2020

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

($/G

allo

n)

Diesel

Gasoline

Medium/Heavy Duty Trucks

Average Truck Cost Comparisons

12



Metric Units

HD

Diesel

Daycab

Tractor

HD CNG

Daycab

Tractor

HD LNG

Daycab

Tractor

Class 5,

Diesel

Delivery

Van

Class 5,

Hybrid

Delivery

Van

Class 5,

Diesel

Shuttle

Class 5,

Propane

Shuttle

Price ($) $110,000 $110,000 $110,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000 $61,000

Incremental cost ($) N/A $50,000 $98,000 N/A $20,000 N/A $16,000

Miles driven per

year (Miles) 120,000 120,000 120,000 16,000 16,000 25,000 25,000

Fuel economy (Miles/Gallon) 6.6 6 6 8 10 9 8.1

Gallons of fuel

used per year (Gallons, DGE) 18,182 20,000 20,000 2,000 1,600 2,778 3,086

Fuel costs ($/Gallon) $3.91 $2.14 $2.78 $3.91 $3.91 $3.65 $2.73

Annual fuel

Expenses ($) $71,091 $42,800 $55,640 $7,820 $6,256 $10,139 $8,426

Cost recovery (Years) N/A 1.8 6.3 N/A 12.8 N/A 9.3

Cost per mile ($) $0.59 $0.36 $0.46 $0.49 $0.39 $0.41 $0.34

» Compressed natural gas (CNG) truck sales are anticipated to almost triple by 2020, reaching 18,485 vehicle

sales that year.

» Liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales are expected to reach 4,128 vehicles

» Propane sales are expected to reach 6,560 annually with strength in specific niches

» HEV trucks are anticipated to grow rapidly, but remain a small part of the overall market (.5% in 2020)

Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales

13



Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain, North America: 2013-2020

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Millio

ns)

CNG LNG

Propane HEV

Lithium Ion Prices

14



Li-ion Battery Cost Price, World Markets: 2012-2020

» Lithium ion (Li-ion) battery costs are expected to fall 37% by 2017 and 65% by 2020

» Majority of HEV truck incremental costs are in other components and labor, not battery costs,

due to relatively small battery pack sizes

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

($/k

Wh

)

» Labor is anticipated to grow as a percentage of conversion costs to reach 56% of conversion

costs by 2020

» Tank costs are anticipated to fall the fastest, decreasing by 13% between 2013 and 2020

Propane Conversion Component Costs

15



Propane Conversion Cost for All Vehicle Types, North America: 2013-2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Pe

rcen

tag

e o

f C

os

ts)

Labor

Other Parts

Tank

» North America will have strong growth of NGVs, but is expected to remain a comparatively

small market reaching 28,423 annual sales in 2020

» Higher costs associated with LNG and longer-range CNG trucks potentially limits LNG truck

demand

Natural Gas Truck Sales

16



Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Natural Gas Truck Sales, North America: 2013-2020

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Ve

hic

les

)

HD LNG Truck

HD CNG Truck

MD CNG Truck

» 1,624 stations expected to be added between 2013 and 2020

» CNG will continue to outpace LNG development throughout forecast › 343 LNG stations versus 2,048 CNG stations in 2015

» Public/private split will be about the same ratio through most of this decade

NGV Infrastructure Forecasts

17

Cumulative NGV Refueling Stations, United States: 2013-2020


-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(NG

V S

tati

on

s)


» Current infrastructure levels from Alternative Fuels Data Center, September 2013

› Total NGV refueling stations: 1,316

› Public/private compressed natural gas (CNG) refueling stations: 605/637

› Public/private liquefied natural gas (LNG) refueling stations: 35/39

Existing NGV Refueling

18

(Source: CNGnow.com)

Public CNG Station Locations, United States: August 2013


» LNG refueling along highways

» Two key players in developing a natural gas highway › Clean Energy Fuels with Pilot Flying J

› Shell Oil with TravelCenters of America

Natural Gas Highway

19

(Source: Clean Energy Fuels)

Public Clean Energy Fuels and Shell LNG Stations, United States: 2012-2013

(Source: Royal Dutch Shell)


» Growth in LNG refueling expected to provide intercity connections and corridors

» Station development trailing announcements, but not endangering LNG truck market yet

» 343 stations expected by end of 2015, development will slow after 2015

LNG Infrastructure

20

Cumulative LNG Refueling Stations, United States: 2012-2015


-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015

(LN

G S

tati

on

s)


» Natural gas

› Cost of NGV stations remains biggest hurdle, but efforts are being made to change

this

› Costs of LNG production still high for small scale, slow infrastructure rollout

› Question as to how merger and acquisition activity in the natural gas vehicle

industry will affect long-term market development

» Propane

› Fuel price is a marketing challenging with biggest alternative fuel price difference

between private and public refueling ($0.81/gallon)

› Scalability of propane production remains a question for future pricing

Key Alternative Fuel

Vehicle Infrastructure Issues


» Increasing interest from smaller fleets is an important factor for growing

the sector as a whole

» Specific industries drive adoption

› Vocational trucks

› Transit/shuttle buses

› Cargo transportation and logistics increasingly important

» Return-to-base fleets remain important, but longer distance

(point-to-point) increasingly interested

» The market for NGVs and propane vehicles remains fleet focused

» Difference in price between gasoline/diesel and alternative fuel is one

of keys to cost recovery

Alternative Drivetrain Customers


Navigant Research Webinars


Visit our website to:

• Learn more about upcoming webinars

• Listen to a webinar replay

• Register for an upcoming webinar

Navigant Research offers two free webinars per month designed to inform you about

important topics in the Smart Energy ecosystem and give you an opportunity to ask

questions to our industry experts.

The webinars feature a question and answer session as well as live presentations from

Navigant Research analysts and industry leader guests.

Sponsorship Opportunities Available –

contact your account representative

Upcoming Webinars


LEDs and the Transformation of the Lighting Industry

October 8, 2013 - 2:00 pm ET

The lighting industry is on the verge of a major transformation. Falling prices and

improving quality have begun to drive widespread adoption of light-emitting diode (LED)

technology. The rise in LEDs is expected to impact every aspect of the lighting industry

from the shape and functionality of light fixtures, to the process of lighting design and

installation, to the features and functions of lighting controls. Featuring research analyst

Jesse Foote along with a key industry insider, this webinar will examine the market drivers

for LED lighting, the likely impacts across the lighting market, and the key emerging

players in this rapidly growing sector.

The Lithium Ion Inflection Point

Advanced Batteries and the Coming Boom in the Global Li-ion Market

November 5, 2013 - 2:00 pm ET

Global demand for lithium ion batteries is set to explode, thanks to cost reductions and

improvements in the chemistry’s costs, energy density, performance, and safety. Featuring

senior research analyst Sam Jaffe along with a key industry insider, this webinar will

explore the global market for Li-ion batteries from both a supply and a demand

perspective, and provide new Navigant Research data that shows where the market is

headed.

Contact Us

25

MAIN OFFICE

1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300

Boulder, CO 80302

+1.303.997.7609

WORLDWIDE OFFICES

United States: Boulder, Colorado

Washington, D.C.

Europe: London, United Kingdom

Asia Pacific: Seoul, South Korea

Dave Hurst: [email protected]

+1.248.246.6563

General information: [email protected]

Sales inquiries: [email protected]

Media inquiries: [email protected]


Pike Research Overview · Navigant Research provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology...

Documents

Transcript of Pike Research Overview · Navigant Research provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology...