Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011

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Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011 Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013 Cara McCarthy Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program National Water and Climate Center Portland, OR Entry to Geneva Park Snow Course, South Platte, for February 1 st , 2013 Measurement, 60% of Normal

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Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013. Cara McCarthy Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast Program National Water and Climate Center Portland, OR. Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte River June 2011

Page 1: Picture:   Spill at Pathfinder Dam,  North Platte River June 2011

Picture: Spill at Pathfinder Dam, North Platte RiverJune 2011

Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting – February 20-21, 2013

Cara McCarthyNatural Resources Conservation ServiceSnow Survey and Water Supply Forecast ProgramNational Water and Climate CenterPortland, OR

Entry to Geneva Park Snow Course, South Platte, for February 1st, 2013 Measurement,60% of Normal

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• Water Supply Forecasts/Current Conditions• A SNOTEL site you should not use for SWE• Snow Course Reductions• Change to 1981-2010 SWE Medians

Sawtooth Snow Course, South PlatteFeb 1st Measurement

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February 1, 2013

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Feb 1, 2013

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February 1, 2013Snow Water Equivalent

as % of Normal (Median)

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SNOTELMonth-to-Date Precipitation

% of Normal

February 18, 2013

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Feb 18, 2013SWE

% Normal

Feb 1, 2013SWE

% of Normal

Change in SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent since February 1

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Month-to-Date Guidance Forecast Change as Percent of 1981-2010 Normal

Feb 18, 2013

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From Lucas Zukiewicz, NRCS SSWSF Montana DCO 2/7/2013

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Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009

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Pike Creek SNOTEL May 2009

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Bear Basin Snow Course 2006

39 Snow Course Reductions in Montana DCO Area

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New Normals this Year

• Every decade the 30 year normals change periods.• This year we go from the 1971-2000 period to the

1981-2010 period.• The change is meant to keep pace with current

climatic conditions as the most recent years are said to represent the current conditions.

• Most data types are calculated as a straight average except Snow Water Equivalent which is “median” or “middle value”

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Why will SWE use a median?

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Lewis Lake Divide SNOTEL Site Yellowstone NP January 16, 2013

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Effect of Change to Median SWE 1981-2010

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http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reportGenerator/

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Questions?

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov