Photovoltaics overview 2008

Photovoltaics Overviewby Dr. Dmitry Lukomskiy

October 2008

- 1 -photovoltaics overview [email protected]

Index of slidesIndex of Slides (1)Renewable energy

Main sources of renewable energy (2)Average investment in new renewable energycapacity, 1995-2007 (3)Average annual growth rates of renewable energycapacity, 2002-2006 (4)

Solar energySolar radiation spectrum above atmosphere andat surface (5)Global solar irradiance distribution (6)World insolation map (7)Daily profile of PV energy production and energyconsumption of an office building (8)

Global PV marketHistorical overview of global PV cumulativecapacity, 1994-2007 (9)Historical data and middle-term forecast for PVcumulative capacity and growth rate, 2001-2012(10)Global PV installations and revenues, 1999-2013(11)Long-term forecast of global PV cumulativecapacity, 2008-2030 (12)

Regional PV marketsMiddle-term forecasts for major PV marketscapacity, 2006-2012 (13)Historical overview of the European PV marketshare, 1998-2006 (14)European company P/E and EV/EBITDA ratiosagainst sector averages, 2007 (15)

PV production chainLifecycle of c-Si PV system (16)Solar value analysis (17)Forecast regarding PV product’s productioncapacity, 2010 (18)Worldwide Si capacity and production forecast,2007-2011 (19)Worldwide wafer capacity and production forecast,2006-2012 (20)Worldwide solar cell production and growth rate,203-2008 (21)Silicon solar cell technology development, 2004-2010 (22)Supply/demand forecast for solar modules, 2006-2012 (23)

PV product cost analysisHistorical and projected experience curve for PVmodules, 1980-2006 (24)Solar module retail price index, 2001-2008 (25)Commercial solar system cost breakdown, 2006-2015 (26Development of utility prices and PV generatedcosts, 1990-2040 (27)

AppendixesSolar cell technology comparison (28)List of sources (29)

mailto:lukomskyy:@gmail.com

Solar energy- utilization of the radiantenergy from the Sun.

Wind- conversion of wind energyinto a useful form, such aselectricity.

Biomass- living and recently deadbiological material as fuel orfor industrial production.

Hydrogen-can be burned as a fuel orconverted into electricity.


Renewable energy

Source: NREL, wikipedia

TO BE UPDATED

Geothermal- generated by heat storedin the earth or ocean.

Wave- mechanical energy fromthe tides and waves.

Hydropower- flowing water createsenergy that can be capturedand turned into electricity.

Main sources of renewable energy



Renewable energy

Source: REN21

Average investment in new renewable energy capacity ($Bn),1995-2007



Renewable energy

Source: REN21

Average annual growth rates of renewable energy capacity (%),2002-2006



Solar energy

Source: wikipedia

Solar radiation spectrum above atmosphere and at surface



Solar energy

Source: wikipedia

Global solar irradiance distribution (W/m2)



Solar energy

Source: altenergystore

World insolation map

This map shows the amount of solar energy in hours, received each day on an optimally tilted surface duringthe worst month of the year (based on accumulated worldwide solar insolation data).



Solar energy

Source: EPIA

Daily profile of PV energy production and energy consumptionof an office building



Global PV market

Source: EPIA

Historical overview of global PV cumulative capacity (GWp),1994-2007

0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,8 2,22,8

3,9

5,2

6,8

9,2

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0

2

4

6

8

10

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Cumulative capacity Growth rate

CAGR = 25.3%


23%25%

27%

38% 37%

30% 31%

44%

38% 39%

32%33%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Global market

Growth rate


Global PV market

Source: EPIA

Historical data and middle-term forecast for PV cumulativecapacity (GWp) and growth rate (%), 2001-2012

CAGR = 33.2%


0,2 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,6 0,91,5 1,7

2,93,7

13,724

4,3

6,5

9,610,6

17,2

02468101214161820

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2013

PV installations,GW

PV market globalrevenues, $Bn


Global PV market

Source: solarbuzz, BCC research, work group analysis

Global PV installations (GW) and revenues ($Bn),1999-2013

CAGR (99-08) =41,7%

CAGR (03-08) = 41,3%


12 17 22 30 38 50 62 82 102 131 159200

241295

350422

494590

685

812

938

1105

1272


Global PV market

Source: EPIA

Long-term forecast of global PV cumulative capacity (GWp),2008-2030

CAGR = 23.8%



Regional PV markets

Source: EPIA

Middle-term forecasts for major PV markets capacity (MWp),2006-2012

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

ROW

RoA

Japan

USA

RoE

Germany

EPIA Pessimistic Scenario:

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

ROW

RoA

Japan

USA

RoE

Germany

EPIA Advanced Scenario:

Total CAGR = 28.7% Total CAGR = 38.26%

14,14%

59,34%

54,21%

5,95%

81,67%

24,26%

19,30%

73,80%

63,84%

23,17%

98,55%

35,51%

CAGR: CAGR:


9%11%

13%15%

17%

19%

28%

38%

43%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Regional PV markets

Source: EPIA

Historical overview of the European PV market share (%),1998-2006

CAGR = 21.6%



Source: Goldman Sachs

European company P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios against sector averages,2007

Regional PV markets



PV production chain

Source: EPIA

Lifecycle of c-Si PV system



PV production chain


Solar value analysis



PV product chain

Source: EPIA

Forecast regarding PV product’s production capacity,2010

10

12

14

16

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Silicon Si Wafer Solar Cells c-Si Modules Thin Film

Production

Limitation



PV product chain

Source: EPIA, HMI

Worldwide Si capacity and production forecast (000 tons),2007-2011

50

120

250

370

440

40

80

150

260

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Capacity, 000 tons

Production, 000 tons

Silicon - atomic structure:



PV product chain


Worldwide wafer capacity and production forecast (GW),2006-2012

2,7

4,6

8,1

13,3

17,3

22,5

26,7

1,83,1

4,8

8,1

11,2

15,4

19,0

2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

Wafer capacity

Wafer production



PV product chain


Worldwide solar cell production (GW) and growth rate (%),2003-2008

0,81,1

1,7

2,2

3,3

4,5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

1

2

3

4

5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Solar cellproduction, GW

Growth rate, %

CAGR = 42.2%



PV product chain

Source: EPIA

Silicon solar cell technology development,2004-2010

300

240

200

180170

160150

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Wafer Thickness, um

Silicon Consumption, g/Wp

c-Si Efficiency, %



PV product chain


Supply/demand forecast for solar modules (GW),2006-2012

1,7

3,1

5,3

8,8

13,0

17,5

22,8

2,02,9

4,8

6,2

8,9

11,1

13,7

2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

Supply

Demand



PV product chain

Source: EERE

Historical and projected experience curve for PV modules,1980-2006



PV product chain

Source: solarbuzz

Solar module retail price index (125 W and higher),2001-2008



PV product chain

Source: EERE

Commercial solar system cost breakdown,2006-2015



PV product chain

Source: EPIA

Development of utility prices and PV generated costs,1990-2040



Appendix 1 - Solar cell technology comparison

Material Thickness Efficiency Colour Features

Monocrystalline Si solar cells 0,3 mm 15 - 18 %Dark blue, black with ARcoating, grey without ARcoating

Lengthy production procedure, wafer sawing necessary.Best researched solar cell material - highest power/arearatio.

Polycrystalline Si solar cells 0,3 mm 13 - 15 %Blue with AR coating,silver-grey without ARcoating

Wafer sawing necessary. Most important productionprocedure at least for the next ten years.

Polycrystalline transparent Si solarcells

0,3 mm 10 %Blue with AR coating,silver-grey without ARcoating

Lower efficency than monocrystalline solar cells.Attractive solar cells for different BIPV applications.

EFG 0,28 mm 14 % Blue, with AR coatingLimited use of this production procedure Very fast crystalgrowth, no wafer sawing neccesary

Polycrystalline ribbon Si solar cells 0,3 mm 12 %Blue, with AR coating,silver-grey without ARcoating

Limited use of this production procedure, no wafersawing neccesary. Decrease in production costs expectedin the future.

Apex (polycrystaline Si) solar cells0,03 to 0,1mm + ceramicsubstrate

9,5 %Blue, with AR coating,silver-grey without ARcoating

Production procedure used only by one producer, nowafer sawing, production in form of band possible.Significant decrease in production costs expected in thefuture.

Monocrystaline dendritic web Sisolar cells

0,13 mm inclcontacts

13 % Blue, with AR coatingLimited use of this production procedure, no wafersawing, production in form of band possible.

Amorphous silicon0,0001 mm + 1to 3 mmsubstrate

5 - 8 % Red-blue, BlackLower efficiency, shorter life span. No sawing necessary,possible production in the form of band.

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)0,008 mm + 3mm glasssubstrate

6 - 9 %(module)

Dark green, BlackPoisonous raw materials, significant decrease inproduction costs expected in the future.

Copper-Indium-Diselenide (CIS)

0,003 mm + 3mm glasssubstrate

7,5 - 9,5 %(module)

BlackLimited Indium supply in nature. Significant decrease inproduction costs possible in the future.

Hybrid silicon (HIT) solar cell 0,02 mm 18 % Dark blue, blackLimited use of this production procedure, higherefficiency

Source: pvresources.com



Appendix 2 - List of sources1. http://www.nrel.gov/

2. http://solarbuzz.com/

3. http://www.ren21.net/

4. http://en.wikipedia.org/

5. http://www.epia.org/

6. http://howto.altenergystore.com/

7. http://www.bccresearch.com/

8. http://www.gs.com/research/

9. http://www.hmi.de/

10.http://pvresources.com/

11.http://www.eere.energy.gov/

.


Photovoltaics overview 2008

Technology

Transcript of Photovoltaics overview 2008