Photovoltaics 2016 Markets, Manufacturing and Technology
Transcript of Photovoltaics 2016 Markets, Manufacturing and Technology
www.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation
Photovoltaics 2016 -
Markets, Manufacturing and Technology
Dr. Arnulf Jäger-Waldau
AMREN-2 Symposium,
EMRS Spring Meeting 2016,
5 May 2016, Lille, France
Annual PV Power Installations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
An
nu
al In
stal
led
PV
Po
we
r [G
Wp
]
Year
Rest of EU
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
Rest of World
China
United States
Japan
Cumulative PV Power
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
Cu
mu
lati
ve In
stal
led
PV
Po
we
r [G
Wp
]
Year
Rest of EU
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
Rest of World
China
United States
Japan
Uncertainties in Market Statistics Most statistics use nominal DC peak power (Wp) under
standard test conditions (1000 W irradiance and standard nominal 25ºC) for reasons of consistence.
Not all countries report DC peak power (Wp) for solar PV systems, but especially for larger scale system the utility peak AC power, which is relevant for the transmission operator. Even in the EUROSTAT statistics the two capacities are mixed.
Some statistics only count the capacity which is actually connected or commissioned in the respective year for the annual statistics, irrespectively when it was actually installed.
Some countries don't have official statistics on the capacity of solar PV system installations or sales statistics of the relevant components.
Cumulative PV Power in the EU
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016eNREAP
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
ho
tovo
ltaic
Po
wer
[GW
p]
Rest of EU
Greece
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Belgium
France
Spain
Italy
Germany
Annual Installed PV Power in the EU
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
An
nu
al
Ph
oto
vo
ltaic
In
sta
llati
on
s [
GW
p] Rest of EU
GreeceUnited KingdomCzech RepublicBelgiumFranceSpainItalyGermany
Cumulative Photovoltaic Power in EU
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NREAP 2020N cont.
2020real cont.
2030N cont.
2030real cont.
Cu
mm
ula
tive
Ph
oto
volt
aic
Po
we
r [G
W]
Year
Rest of EU
Greece
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Belgium
France
Spain
Italy
Germany
PV cell and thin film production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
An
nu
al
Pro
du
cti
on
[G
W]
Year
Rest of World
United States
Malaysia
Japan
Europe
Taiwan
PR China
Uncertainties in Production Statistics
Only a limited number of companies report production figures for solar cells or thin film modules.
Shipment figures can include products from stock, already produced in the previous year.
Some companies report shipments of "solar products" without a differentiation between wafers, cells or modules.
The increasing trend towards Original Equipment Manufacturing (OEM) increases the potential of double counts.
Capacity Expansion
Nameplate Capacity End of 2013: ~ 62 GW End of 2014: ~ 88 GW
Operational Capacity End of 2013: ~ 45 GW End of 2014: ~ 66 GW
Announcements 2015 c-Si cells: ~ 15 GW Thin films: ~ 5.1 GW Integrated cell/module: ~ 7.1 GW
Capacity Expansion
Technology (in order of announced MWs)
• PERC • "standard c-Si technology" • CdTe • CIGS • HJ • Bifacial
Capacity Expansion
Where are the new plants build (top 5 in order of announced MWs)
• India • South Korea • China • Thailand • Malaysia
Thin Films
Commercial CdTe modules Q1/2012 (12.4%) Q1/2016 (16.2%) +30.6%
Commercial CIGS modules 2010: between 7 and 11% 2015: between 12 and 15.1%
Commercial silicon tf modules 2010: between 5 and 8% 2015: between 5 and 11%
Crystalline Silicon
Polysilicon Siemens Process 2014: 65–120 kWh/kg FBR 2014: 20– 30 kWh/kg
Power Output per Wafer mc : 2011 (4.02W) 2014(4.33W) +7.7% mono : 2011 (4.27W) 2014(4.63W) +8.4%
Polysilicon consumption of wafers mc : 2011 (5.92g) 2014 (5.00g) –15.5% mono : 2011 (5.71g) 2014 (4.52g) –20.8 %
Crystalline Silicon
Average Cell Efficiency mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2014(17.8%) +4.7% mono: 2012 (18.6%) 2014(19.4%) +4.3%
Average Module Efficiency (no ARC) mc : 2012 (15.1%) 2014(15.7%) +4.0% mono: 2012 (15.6%) 2014(16.4%) +5.1%
Average Module Efficiency (ARC) mc : 2012 (15.4%) 2014(16.0%) +3.9% mono: 2012 (15.8%) 2014(16.7%) +5.7%
Crystalline Silicon
Emerging Production Technologies • Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC) • 4 and 5 busbar solar cells (4BB, 5BB) • Heterojunction Solar Cells • Bifacial Solar Cells
Possible Efficiency Gain • PERC: 4-5% relative, 0.7 – 1.0% absolute • 4BB: about 0.3% absolute
Conclusions
• PV technology has made significant progress. In all technologies the progress has been greater than predicted in various roadmaps.
• Further material reduction per Wp ongoing.
• PV cell and thin film capacity still larger than demand, but no longer completely disconnected.
• Shift of PV production.
23