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Submitted on 7 Nov 2012

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Photovoltaic deployment: from subsidies to amarket-driven growth: A panel econometrics approach

Anna Créti, Léonide Michael Sinsin

To cite this version:Anna Créti, Léonide Michael Sinsin. Photovoltaic deployment: from subsidies to a market-drivengrowth: A panel econometrics approach. cahier de recherche 2012-32. 2012. <hal-00749385>

PHOTOVOLTAIC DEPLOYMENT : FROM SUBSIDIES TO A MARKET-DRIVEN GROWTH : A PANEL ECONOMETRICS APPROACH

Anna CRETI

Léonide Michael SINSIN

Cahier n° 2012-32

ECOLE POLYTECHNIQUE CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE

DEPARTEMENT D'ECONOMIE Route de Saclay

91128 PALAISEAU CEDEX (33) 1 69333033

http://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu

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9

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Series: PCAPSample 2009Q1 2011Q4Observations 48

Mean        1.214713Median    1.254714Maximum   1.539921Minimum   0.646312Std. Dev.    0.249312Skewness   ­0.583199Kurtosis    2.196509

Jarque­Bera  4.012161Probability  0.134515

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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

Series: CAPSample 2009Q1 2011Q4Observations 48

Mean        0.960943Median    0.885204Maximum   1.692099Minimum   0.096713Std. Dev.    0.466367Skewness    0.192064Kurtosis    2.188627

Jarque­Bera  1.611760Probability  0.446695

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4

6

8

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12

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1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6

Series: PRODSample 2009Q1 2011Q4Observations 48

Mean        2.508079Median    2.333437Maximum   3.562189Minimum   1.851258Std. Dev.    0.485045Skewness    1.092839Kurtosis    2.825001

Jarque­Bera  9.615632Probability  0.008166

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9

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Series: MODULESample 2009Q1 2011Q4Observations 48

Mean        2.287031Median    2.309230Maximum   2.468347Minimum   2.053144Std. Dev.    0.122914Skewness   ­0.530992Kurtosis    2.276397

Jarque­Bera  3.302826Probability  0.191779

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Series: MCAPSample 2009Q1 2011Q4Observations 48

Mean        0.952346Median    0.752265Maximum   1.796017Minimum   0.408054Std. Dev.    0.462922Skewness    0.898852Kurtosis    2.171048

Jarque­Bera  7.837794Probability  0.019863

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B

Dependent Variable: PROD     Method: Panel Least Squares     Date: 09/21/12   Time: 12:33     Sample: 2009Q1 2011Q4     Periods included: 12     Cross­sections included: 4     Total panel (balanced) observations: 48   

                  

Variable  Coefficient  Std. Error  t­Statistic  Prob.                     

MODULE  ­0.110894  0.297559  ­3.372679  0.0711 PCAP  1.782311  0.601552  2.962855  0.0050 WCAP  ­1.836926  0.789432  ­2.326896  0.0249 CAP  1.439234  0.668334  2.153465  0.0371 

MCAP  0.894005  0.814940  1.397019  0.1279 B  ­0.577727  0.024911  ­1.610174  0.1250                   

R­squared  0.852494      Mean dependent var  ­0.042852 Adjusted R­squared  0.861124      S.D. dependent var  0.425102 S.E. of regression  0.165093      Akaike info criterion  0.298999 Sum squared resid  2.951527      Schwarz criterion  0.532899 Log likelihood  ­1.175969      Hannan­Quinn criter.  0.387390 Durbin­Watson stat  1.943774       

                  

Dependent Variable: RES2^2 Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 08/20/12 Time: 11:27 Sample: 2009Q1 2011Q4 Periods included: 12 Cross-sections included: 4 Total panel (balanced) observations: 48 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. MCAP^2 -0.000652 0.006362 -0.102553 0.9188 B^2 9.55E-06 4.30E-05 0.222166 0.8252 MODULE^2 0.014192 0.030488 0.465487 0.6438 R-squared -0.664139 Mean dependent var 0.003559 Adjusted R-squared -0.738100 S.D. dependent var 0.004360 S.E. of regression 0.005749 Akaike info criterion -7.419214 Sum squared resid 0.001487 Schwarz criterion -7.302264 Log likelihood 181.0611 Hannan-Quinn criter. -7.375018 Durbin-Watson stat 1.995618

Dependent Variable: RES2 Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 08/20/12 Time: 11:59 Sample (adjusted): 2009Q2 2011Q4 Periods included: 11 Cross-sections included: 4 Total panel (balanced) observations: 44

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -0.001323 0.008406 -0.157449 0.8756

RES2(-1) 0.512306 0.145489 3.521272 0.0010 R-squared 0.227932 Mean dependent var 0.002024

Adjusted R-squared 0.209549 S.D. dependent var 0.062310 S.E. of regression 0.055399 Akaike info criterion -2.904139 Sum squared resid 0.128898 Schwarz criterion -2.823039 Log likelihood 65.89105 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.874063 F-statistic 12.39935 Durbin-Watson stat 1.891035 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001049

Dependent Variable: PROD     Method: Panel Least Squares     Date: 09/25/12   Time: 13:37     Sample: 2009Q1 2011Q4     Periods included: 12     Cross­sections included: 5     Total panel (balanced) observations: 60                     Variable  Coefficient  Std. Error  t­Statistic  Prob.                     C  ­0.249642  0.197953  ­1.261121  0.2128 CAPACITY  1.064859  0.085239  12.49265  0.0000 PRICE  ­0.095821  0.106322  ­2.901232  0.0315                     Effects Specification                       Cross­section fixed (dummy variables)                     R­squared  0.931898      Mean dependent var  2.055392 Adjusted R­squared  0.924188      S.D. dependent var  0.266278 S.E. of regression  0.073317      Akaike info criterion  ­2.278776 Sum squared resid  0.284893      Schwarz criterion  ­2.034436 Log likelihood  75.36327      Hannan­Quinn criter.  ­2.183201 F­statistic  120.8741      Durbin­Watson stat  1.836766 Prob(F­statistic)  0.000000