Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 22 July 2011...

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0141

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 22 July 2011

Singapore Strategy & Macro (Longer Term Outlook): � EZ has announced a two pronged approach to the debt crisis. Firstly, IMF & EZ

nations, plus Financial Institutions, agreed on a new aid package for Greece worth 159b euros (109b + 50b respective contribution). Banks could reduce Greece’s debt by 13.5 billion euros or more, by exchanging bonds through a buyback program still to be outlined. Investors will have the option to exchange existing Greek debt into four instruments. Three will be fully collateralized by AAA-rated zero-coupon securities and have a 30-year maturity, and the fourth will be for 15 years and partially collateralized by funds held in an escrow account. Crisis managers are aiming for a 90 percent participation rate from Greek bondholders. At the same time the original 440b euro rescue fund can now (1) buy peripheral debt across troubled regions (2) aid banks (3) provide credit lines to repel speculators. On the first package, we're not quite sure if it will work given that the debt reduction is not substantial enough to be called debt relief. The second initiative could ring fence the other peripheral nations from having their debt shorted in the markets.

Technicals & Inter-market (Short/Intermediate Term Outlook): � The STI finished flat on Thursday, with the Straits Times Index adding just 11.98

points (0.38%) to close at 3,138.51. Some 1.53 billion shares changed hands on a market turnover of S$1.53 billion, as gainers edged out losers 275 to 222.

� The Shanghai composite index was down 28.31 points (1.01%) at 2,765.89 on turnover of 95.8 billion yuan (US$14.8 billion). Short term momentum looks like it’s beginning to fizzle. Will need a push above 2,800 again to kick start a stronger directional bias. Break of support at 2,750 will do the same for the downside.

� The S&P 500 Index rose 17.96 points (1.35%) to close at 1,343.80. in the EU Summit held yesterday, Euro Zone leaders empowered their 440-billion euro rescue fund to buy debt across stressed euro nations. In addition, rumors that a possible U.S. debt deal to save the United States from an unprecedented default fueled the US markets. Technicals looking positive after price closed above resistance at 1,340.

� STI tested the 200 day average in the 3,140 region yesterday, closing slightly below it. It is also near the upper trend line of a long standing triangle type consolidation. Possibility of the first push above the consolidation pattern today, driven by the follow through from the strong US session. Should the debt ceiling issues resolve, we could see sentiment across risky assets turn positive and this should be sufficient to cause and sustain an upside breakout for the STI. Support at 3,130, 3,120 before 3,100. Resistance at 3,150, 3,165 and key resistance at 3,180.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 3138.51 11.98 0.38P/E (x) 10.52P/Bv (x) 1.61

2.82Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2800

3000

3200

3400

7/21 10/21 1/21 4/21 7/21

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 22 July 2011

2

Hong Kong � Local stocks erased earlier gain, and closed flat as persistent uncertainty

surrounding US/ Europe debt problems have renewed recession fears. The HSI and HSCEI slipped 16.4 points and 60.42 points to 21987.29 and 12322.25 respectively. Market volume was 653.44 billion.

� Generally, recent momentum remains weak because of the mainland property price cap, US/ Europe debt problems and fears of PRC hard landing. Yet, the benchmark index is now trading at 11.13x leading PE, this implied the limited downside risk. Investors are suggested to grasp the short-term trading buy for particular sectors such as gambling stocks. We reiterate our view that the recent trading zone of the HSI ranges from 21500-22300 and intraday trend would be choppy due to the higher sensitivity to newsflow.

� Today, exporters and retailers, especially higher sensitive to euro, would underperform because of the worse than expected Euro-zone PMI.

� We peg resistance for the HSI at 22200 and support at 21900-950.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 21987.29 -16.40 -0.07P/E (x) 11.53P/Bv (x) 1.66

2.97Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

7/21 10/21 1/21 4/21 7/21

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand � Thai stocks traded choppy in a tight band but stayed in positive territory

throughout the session in heavy turnover. Gains were pared in the afternoon trade after HSBC's China Flash PMI, the earliest available indicator of China's industrial activity, for July 2011 slipped to 48.9 and fell below the 50-point level for the first time since Jul 2010, feeding worries about economic growth in China. Foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Thai shares worth Bt3,418.30m on Thu.

� The overall market picture remains largely unchanged with bullish sentiment intact amid easing external pressures. Last night euro-zone leaders agreed on a 159 billion euros second bailout for Greece, consisting of an extra 109 billion euros of government money and a contribution by private sector bondholders estimated to total as much as 50 billion euros. There were also signs of progress on the U.S. debt talks. Continued heavy foreign buying of Thai shares would also be another factor supporting the broad market. Internal factors seem to be little changed but there may be an upside surprise from a new cabinet lineup and the initial implementation of new government’s policies except that there will be a chaos caused by political protests.

� For short-term strategy, ‘trading buy’ still makes sense for the Thai market, in our view.

� Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1110-1113 and support at 1100-1095.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1104.15 2.78 0.25P/E (x) 14.20P/Bv (x) 3.01

3.49Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

7/21 10/21 1/21 4/21 7/21

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia � On yesterday’s market opening, the Jakarta Composite index (JCI) started the

day on a positive territory. The JCI closed at 4,068.07 up 17.44 points (+0.43%) and continued to break a new record for the second time this week. The JCI stayed in a range of 4,048.18-4,072.83.

� The upward movement was mainly led by gain in consumer good stock (GGRM), infrastructure stock (TLKM), and trade & services stock (UNTR). This index gain was limited by losses for ASII (miscellaneous industry), BORN (mining), and BMRI (finance). The breadth of the market was positive with 112 shares advancing as compared to 127 that declined. The total turnover on regular market was recorded at only IDR 4.6 trillion (US dollar 542 billion).

� We predict the JCI will be trading in positive territory today at support-resistance level of 4,030-4,110.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4068.07 17.44 0.43P/E (x) 18.58P/Bv (x) 3.29

1.84Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

7/21 10/21 1/21 4/21 7/21

Source: Bloomberg


3

US Bank of America – Company 2Q11 results Previous close: S$9.85 � Technical Analysis: Downtrend but possibility of reversal brewing depending on future price action. Resistances at $10.40 and $11.00.

Recent low of $9.40 not regarded as a support unless stock tests this level again. � Fundamental Analysis: BAC looks attractive trading at 0.75x tangible PB and 0.47x PB however near term risks exist. Despite writing off

mortgage related items in 2Q11, the matter has not come to a finale. BAC continues to set aside reserves for future write offs. Net interest income continues to fall off as loans run offs and write-downs continue. Fee and commission income remain weak in our opinion and held up only due to debt securities sales. BAC is not out of the woods hence we maintain our Neutral call.

Singapore CapitaMalls Asia Ltd – Company Results Recommendation: Buy Previous close: S$1.45 Fair value: S$1.75

� CMA reported lower 2Q11 top-line of $62.8mil, a decrease of 13.9% y-y � 2Q11 PATMI was however boasted by revaluation gain on properties of $142.3mil to $164.9mil, a 100.8% y-y increase � Declared interim dividend of 1.5 cents and guided that shareholders can expect total dividend of 3 cents for FY11 � CMA opened one mall each in China and India in 2Q11, and 3 more in the malls opening pipeline for 2H11 � Maintain Buy with fair value lowered to $1.75 Keppel Corporation Ltd - Company Results (Nicholas Low) Recommendation: HOLD Previous close: S$10.82 Fair value: S$12.16 � 2Q11 results came in above expectations. � Excellent O&M margins continue to hold up profits despite fall in revenue but expect moderation in margins going forward. � We raise FY11e EPS from 65 cts to 78 cts but keep FY12e EPS unchanged. � Maintain Hold with change in fair value from $10.84 to $12.16.

Hong Kong China State Construction – Company Initiation Recommendation: Hold Previous Close: HK$7.58 Fair Value: HK$8.67 � In 1H2011 new contract value of CSCI kept high growth, especially on infrastructure investment. In the first 6 months of 2011, CSCI

recorded new contract value awarded of HK$19.34 Billion, representing a YoY growth of 73.6% and a 69.1% accomplishment of the full year target of 2011 (no less than HK$28 Billion). Infrastructure investment (including affordable housing) business in PRC and construction business in Macau outperformed with a strong YoY growth of 3.6 times and 63.1% respectively. In addition, turnover and net in 2010 rose by 23% and 69% respectively, both exceeding our forecast.

� The on-hand contract value amounted over 65billion may ensure profit increase of CSCI, and revenue proportion of infrastructure investment will have positive impact on its gross profit margin. We expect that total turnover in 2011 and 2012 will be 16.54billion and 20.86billion, gross profit margin up to 12%, and net profit will reach 1.38billion and 1.79billion, EPS at 0.413 and 0.498 respectively.

� Because shares expanded and revenue from infrastructure was lower than forecast, EPS of CSCI is adjusted to 0.413 and 0.498 respectively, we give the company forecast P/E of 21 times to reflect high degree of prosperity on building affordable house. According to our estimation, 12m TP of CSCI is forecasted to HKD8.67, 14.4% higher than current price. We maintain CSCI “Hold” rating.

Thailand Tata Steel (Thailand) – Company Results Recommendation: HOLD Previous close: Bt1.44 Fair value: Bt1.63 � Steel bar producer TSTH swung to a net profit of Bt1.76m in FY1Q11/12 ending Jun 30, 2011 from a massive loss of up to Bt118.90m in

FY4Q10/11, helped by widening spreads between selling prices and costs in FY1Q11/12. � With a lack of growth catalysts, earnings are expected to soften in FY2Q11/12 as a result of a slowdown in sales volume due to the low

season for construction. � We keep a ‘HOLD’ stance on TSTH with a FY2011/12 price target of Bt1.63/share.

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Market News

US � Consumer confidence stagnated last week as Americans’ optimism over their current finances clashed with growing pessimism about the

state of the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 43.3 in the period to July 17, the highest since April, compared with minus 43.9 the prior week. The monthly gauge of the economic outlook improved from a two-year low. “Household confidence remains historically depressed,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. “The consumer is likely not to be a major factor in driving growth during the current business cycle compared to past cycles.” (Source: Bloomberg)

� The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June, confirming the Federal Reserve’s forecast that the economy will pick up in the second

half of the year. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.3 percent after a 0.8 percent gain in May, the New York-based research group said today. Jobless claims rose more than forecast and consumer confidence stagnated last week, while manufacturing in the Philadelphia area rebounded this month, other reports showed. Cheaper fuel costs, an easing of supply bottlenecks after the Japan earthquake and better weather may combine to help give the recovery a boost. At the same time, a reluctance to ramp up hiring and limited income growth may restrain consumer purchases, the biggest part of the economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

Singapore � The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) yesterday raised its inflation forecast for this year and warned of significant risks in the world

economy that could jeopardise Singapore's growth. MAS now expects inflation of 4-5 per cent for the whole of this year, compared to its earlier forecast of 3-4 per cent, due to an unexpected surge in accommodation and private road transport costs, MAS managing director Ravi Menon told reporters at a briefing yesterday. He also warned that Singapore's economic growth for 2011 could fall at the lower end of the official forecast range of 5-7 per cent due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, especially the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. (Source: BT Online)

� The number of private homes sold in the subsale market, which is often used as a proxy of speculative activity, rose 10.6 per cent

quarter on quarter to 712 units in the second quarter of this year, but this pace of increase was slower than a nearly 27 per cent jump reflected in the 4,562 new private homes sold by developers, according to Savills' analysis. 'With speculators weeded out from the market after the higher seller's stamp duty (SSD) rates introduced in January, more genuine home buyers now have direct access to choice units from developers in the primary market. So the supply chain has become more efficient with the 'middlemen' or speculators cut out', said Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong. 'The full impact of the January 2011 anti-speculation measures will need time to work their way through the system since the SSD would affect only those who bought a private home from Jan 14 and sell it within four years of purchase,' he added. The SSD rates are 16, 12, 8 and 4 per cent respectively for those who sell their properties in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region � IMF issued a statement urging the RMB appreciation. International Monetary Fund on July 20 issued a statement on the currency issue

to put pressure on China to revalue RMB. The IMF 24 directors agreed that in medium term, the RMB appreciation would promote China's economic transformation to an important factor in domestic demand.Now, the RMB is still significantly lower than the mid-term fundamentals standard. (Source: cnfol)

� CBRC Chairman Liu: vigilance recent private lending risk. In today's third meeting of 2011, analysis of economic and financial situation,

at the meeting, the CBRC Chairman Liu stressed that financial institutions have to strengthen risk management and forward-looking initiative to further promote the platform for credit risk control. So the risk can be early exposured, early detection and early intervention. (Source: hexun)

� IMF forecasts China's GDP growth will reach 9.6%. on July 20 International Monetary Fund said as in a strong domestic and external

demand-driven, China's economy will continue to grow on a solid foundation, in the next two years will be more than 9%, maintained strong growth momentum. IMF forecast report released the same day, China's real GDP growth in 2011 will reach 9.6% and in 2012 to reach 9.5%. The report notes that wage and employment growth push China's consumption growth, expansion of infrastructure, real estate development increased the investment, net exports again contributed to China's economic growth. (Source:cnyes)

Thailand � Foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Thai shares worth Bt3,418.30m on Thu. (Source: Bisnews) � Thai exports rose 16.8% YoY in Jun 2011, taking export growth to 23.6% in the first half of 2011 with a trade surplus of more than

US$3b, according to the Commerce Ministry. (Source: Krungthep Turakij) � BOT governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul urged the private sector to import capital goods during a stronger baht and called on the

government to spend on R&D to strengthen the economy. The Bank of Thailand also sent a signal that it will pursue a cautious interest rate policy as part of its normalization efforts as inflation is likely to remain high. In addition, the central bank expressed worries about three challenges to be faced by the new government: (1) efforts to a strike a balance between investment and consumption, (2) fiscal and monetary discipline and (3) fiscal policy to support and create an environment for investment. The central bank also urged the new government to take steps to maintain economic stability rather than stimulate the economy. (Source: Manager)

� Construction, consumer goods, textiles, clothes and footwear, and jewelry are five sectors that will be worst affected by an increase in


5

the daily minimum wage with net profits potentially slashed by 52%, according to research by TMB Bank. (Source: The Nation)

Indonesia � China is the world's top consumer of nickel, a key ingredient in stainless steel production, and has been increasing nickel ore imports to

meet rising domestic demand. China imported 25 million tonnes of nickel laterite in 2010, half of which was from Indonesia. (Source: Reuters)

� Indonesia’s non-oil/non-gas exports to Egypt in the January - March 2011 period were recorded at 261.8 million US dollars, higher that

that in the same period in the previous year which were 159.8 million, or an increase of 63.8 %. In the meantime, Indonesia’s imports from Eqypt in the January - March 2011 period declined 26.3 % to 44.9 million US dollars from 61 million dollars in the same period in 2010. Indonesia`s imports from Egypt were dominated by among others phosphate, aluminum, cotton, fruit, carpet and textile. The two-way trade values of the two countries in the January - March 2011 period were 307.7 million US dollars, or an increase of 38.8 % from that in the same period last year which were 220.8 million US dollars. Indonesia’s main commodity in its exports of about 700 goods to Egypt was crude palm oil (CPO). According to the Egyptian Central Bureau of Statistics (CAPMAS), Egypt’s CPO imports in the January - March period increased to 86.7 million US dollars compared that in the corresponding period in 2010 which were recorded at 70.5 million US dollars. In 2010, the two countries` two way trade values totaled 1.07 billion US dollars, up 18.4 % from 802.5 million US dollars in 2009. (Source: Antara)

� Indonesia expects investment in the country to increase by 15 % to IDR 240 trillion this year. The Capital Coordinating Board (BKPM)

said until the first quarter of this year investment had reached IDR 53.6 trillion, an increase of 27.3 % YoY. The total consists of IDR 14.1 trillion in domestic investment and IDR 39.5 trillion in foreign investment projects, according to BKPM data. In the first quarter of 2011 IDR 23.7 trillion worth of investment projects were outside Java such as in South Sumatra (USD 0.4 billion covering 22 projects), Papua (USD 0.4 billion covering 9 projects) and West Kalimantan (USD 0.3 billion covering 18 projects). (Source: Antara)


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Dollar Index 74.00 +0.00%

70

75

80

85

90

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1590.70 +0.05%

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1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11 7/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 98.91 +0.78%

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 3.0136 +2.94%

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

FSSTI 3138.51 +0.38%

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3400

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 12724.41 +1.21%

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9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

HSI 21987.29 -0.07%

18000

19000

20000

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22000

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25000

26000

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

SET 1104.15 +0.25%

600

700

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900

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1200

07/22/10 10/22/10 01/22/11 04/22/11

Source: Bloomberg


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JCI 4068.073 +0.43%

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4300

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2765.894 -1.01%

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3300

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH 6598.97 -1.25%

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4300

7/22/10 10/22/10 1/22/11 4/22/11

Source: Bloomberg


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Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +0.29 +3.29 1146.08 ALL ORDINARIES INDX +0.17 +7.80 4626.20

HANG SENG INDEX -0.07 -16.40 21987.29 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX +0.70 +93.47 13434.30

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX +0.43 +17.44 4068.07 FTSE 100 INDEX +0.79 +46.07 5899.89

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI +0.21 +3.22 1565.81 CAC 40 INDEX +1.66 +62.15 3816.75

KOSPI INDEX -0.46 -9.91 2145.04 DAX INDEX +0.95 +68.78 7290.14

NIKKEI 225 +0.04 +4.49 10010.39 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG +1.21 +152.50 12724.41

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX +0.25 +2.78 1104.15 S&P 500 INDEX +1.35 +17.96 1343.80

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -1.01 -28.31 2765.89 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX +0.72 +20.20 2834.43

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX +0.13 +10.97 8717.14 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS -0.36 -2.08 571.62

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -0.36 -66.19 18436.19

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

-1.25 -83.49 6598.97

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.80 +0.84 +0.02 234,211,400 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.80 +0.84 +0.02 130,262,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

3.31 +1.22 +0.04 126,338,300 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.72 +0.00 +0.00 110,061,000

OCBC BANK 9.77 +1.03 +0.10 106,827,200 MDR LTD 0.01 +20.00 +0.00 71,192,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.72 +0.00 +0.00 78,994,500 NEXT-GENERATION SATELLITE CO

0.03 +8.00 +0.00 52,788,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

19.99 +0.65 +0.13 67,245,220 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

3.31 +1.22 +0.04 38,424,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

14.98 +0.13 +0.02 59,025,670 TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD

1.10 -3.08 -0.04 36,903,000

CAPITALAND LTD 2.88 -0.35 -0.01 50,899,640 DYNA-MAC HOLDINGS LTD

0.54 +2.86 +0.02 34,971,000

YANGZIJIANG SHIP

1.37 -0.36 -0.01 45,085,360 UNITED ENVIROTECH LTD

0.36 +7.58 +0.03 34,733,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

10.82 +0.19 +0.02 41,727,330 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

1.37 -0.36 -0.01 32,721,000

TIGER AIRWAYS 1.10 -3.08 -0.04 40,730,860 GENTING HONG KONG LTD

0.42 +6.33 +0.03 31,839,000



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Hong Kong


CHINA MOBILE 76.05 +2.01 +1.50 4,780,865,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 3.51 -0.85 -0.03 463,597,831

CNOOC LTD 16.86 -3.55 -0.62 4,067,974,000 CNOOC LTD 16.86 -3.55 -0.62 241,279,634

HUTCHISON WHAMPO

85.10 +2.10 +1.75 2,128,775,000 SEMICONDUCTOR MA

0.47 -3.09 -0.02 218,654,000

BANK OF CHINA-H 3.51 -0.85 -0.03 1,623,754,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

6.07 +0.00 +0.00 201,343,358

HSBC HLDGS PLC 75.90 +0.93 +0.70 1,344,809,000 AGRICULTURAL-H 4.03 -1.95 -0.08 171,347,695

CHINA CONST BA-H 6.07 +0.00 +0.00 1,218,677,000 IND & COMM BK-H 5.71 +0.00 +0.00 161,457,972

IND & COMM BK-H 5.71 +0.00 +0.00 920,985,300 GCL-POLY ENERGY

4.22 +2.68 +0.11 123,157,334

TENCENT HOLDINGS

203.60 -1.93 -4.00 871,401,100 CHINA 3D DIGITAL 0.02 -7.69 -0.00 114,650,000

XINYI GLASS HOLD 6.70 -2.76 -0.19 719,123,900 XINYI GLASS HOLD

6.70 -2.76 -0.19 110,155,007

AGRICULTURAL-H 4.03 -1.95 -0.08 692,542,700 LONG SUCCESS INT

0.18 +18.54 +0.03 105,415,000


Thailand


BANGKOK BANK PUB

169.50 +0.30 +0.50 1,270,000,000 PROP PERFECT PCL

0.95 -3.06 -0.03 433,162,400

PTT PCL 349.00 +0.87 +3.00 1,230,000,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

3.14 -0.63 -0.02 94,980,400

SIAM COMM BK PCL 118.00 -0.42 -0.50 1,130,000,000 TRUE CORP PCL 4.18 +6.09 +0.24 595,935,200

KASIKORNBANK PCL

135.50 +1.50 +2.00 933,760,000 TMB BANK PCL 2.02 -0.98 -0.02 158,802,100

TOTAL ACCESS COM

63.50 +2.83 +1.75 918,780,000 NEP REALTY & IND

0.79 -2.47 -0.02 87,170,100

KASIKORNBANK-FOR

138.00 +0.73 +1.00 833,680,000 G STEEL PCL 0.66 +4.76 +0.03 301,259,800

ADVANCED INFO 116.00 -0.85 -1.00 833,680,000 EVOLUTION CAPITA

1.53 -4.38 -0.07 116,370,200

CHAROEN POK FOOD

29.00 -0.85 -0.25 696,040,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.71 +0.00 +0.00 109,814,600

THAI OIL PCL 75.50 +0.67 +0.50 1,298,889,000 PREMIER TECHNOLO

3.88 -3.00 -0.12 30,038,600

PTT CHEMICAL PCL 157.50 -0.63 -1.00 810,265,000 THAI-GERMAN PRO

0.42 -2.33 -0.01 22,127,900



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Indonesia


BANK MANDIRI 7550.00 -0.66 -50.00 102,236,200,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 164.00 -1.80 -3.00 449,549,500

INDO TAMBANGRAYA 49950.00 1.42 700.00 279,871,000,000 KAWASAN INDUS JA 184.00 -4.66 -9.00 222,182,500

BUMI RESOURCES 3075.00 0.00 0.00 193,995,200,000 DARMA HENWA 121.00 6.14 7.00 1,421,434,500

ASTRA INTERNATIO 71250.00 -0.97 -700.00 160,526,100,000 SENTUL CITY TBK 178.00 0.00 0.00 129,855,000

BAKRIELAND DEV 164.00 -1.80 -3.00 74,543,050,000 SIERAD PRODUCE 74.00 5.71 4.00 287,404,000

LIPPO KARAWACI 740.00 0.00 0.00 95,544,610,000 LIPPO KARAWACI 740.00 0.00 0.00 126,597,500

PERUSAHAAN GAS N 3975.00 1.27 50.00 121,759,600,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 70.00 1.45 1.00 494,330,000

KAWASAN INDUS JA 184.00 -4.66 -9.00 41,681,150,000 SUPARMA 305.00 -15.28 -55.00 250,139,500

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6650.00 0.00 0.00 211,525,000,000 ALAM SUTERA REAL 385.00 -4.94 -20.00 73,064,500

BUMI SERPONG 1000.00 -2.91 -30.00 33,690,350,000 AGUNG PODOMORO L

365.00 -2.67 -10.00 45,131,000


Sri Lanka


JOHN KEELLS HLDG 199.90 -1.33 -2.70 159,584,800 E-CHANNELLING 6.00 -3.23 -0.20 844,400

AITKEN SPENCE H 73.20 -2.40 -1.80 16,633,420 PANASIAN POWER L 4.30 -2.27 -0.10 5,513,300

ASIAN HOTELS PLC 90.40 0.22 0.20 4,184,510 FREE LANKA CAPIT 3.80 0.00 0.00 3,170,200

AITKEN SPENCE PL 140.50 0.21 0.30 6,580,920 AITKEN SPENCE H 73.20 -2.40 -1.80 222,200

CENTRAL FINANCE 1495.00 0.07 1.10 747,500 MULLER & PHIPPS 2.60 -3.70 -0.10 1,519,100

HUNTER & CO PLC 790.30 -2.25 -18.20 1,760,400 RICHARD PIERIS 10.40 -1.89 -0.20 401,900

ORIENT GARMENTS 34.80 -0.57 -0.20 54,929,540 SOFTLOGIC HOLDIN 24.50 -2.78 -0.70 3,324,200

SOFTLOGIC HOLDIN 24.50 -2.78 -0.70 80,444,950 EXPOLANKA HOLDIN 14.00 -4.11 -0.60 2,488,400

E-CHANNELLING 6.00 -3.23 -0.20 5,140,420 BLUE DIAMONDS JE 7.60 -1.30 -0.10 940,700

VALLIBEL ONE LTD 29.90 0.00 0.00 47,494,360 VALLIBEL ONE LTD 29.90 0.00 0.00 1,591,100



11

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ +0.05 +0.75 1,590.70 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7622 1.0841

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ +0.07 +0.03 39.41 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.7793 0.9433

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px +0.78 +0.77 98.91 EURO 0.5727 1.4425

BRITISH POUND 0.5060 1.6331 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8262 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.3290 6.4515

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard +0.62 +8.50 1376.75 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.4386 7.7921

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) +1.16 +36.00 3137.00 JAPANESE YEN 64.7000 78.3000

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 871.2588 1054.7000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4750 2.9963

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.00 +0.00 74.00 THAI BAHT 24.6631 29.8500


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

6 Months 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.08

2 Years 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.37

3 Years 0.69 0.64 0.66 0.67

5 Years 1.55 1.47 1.50 1.54

10 Years 3.01 2.93 2.95 2.98

30 Years 4.31 4.25 4.25 4.21

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 3.00

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 2.61

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

7/25/11 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

JUN - - -0.37 7/25/11 CPI (MOM) - NSA JUN -0.4% 0.6%

7/25/11 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

JUL -7.2 -17.5 7/25/11 CPI (YoY) JUN 5.1% 4.5%

7/26/11 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA

MAY 0.00% -0.09% 7/26/11 Industrial Production MoM SA

JUN 3.8% -3.8%

7/26/11 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY

MAY -4.70% -3.96% 7/26/11 Industrial Production YoY JUN 10.0% -17.5%

7/26/11 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind

MAY - - 138.84 7/29/11 Credit Card Bad Debts JUN - - 14.6M

7/26/11 Consumer Confidence JUL 58.3 58.5 7/29/11 Credit Card Billings JUN - - 2959.8M

7/26/11 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

JUL 5 3 7/29/11 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)

JUN - - 24.2%

7/26/11 New Home Sales JUN 322K 319K 7/29/11 M1 Money Supply (YoY) JUN - - 19.4%

7/26/11 New Home Sales MoM JUN 0.9% -2.1% 7/29/11 M2 Money Supply (YoY) JUN - - 10.8%

7/27/11 MBA Mortgage Applications

22-Jul - - 15.5%

7/29/11 Unemployment Rate (sa) 2Q p - - 1.9%



12

Thailand Hong Kong


7/22/11 Forward Contracts 15-Jul - - $25.6B 7/28/11 Exports YoY% JUN - - 10.1%

7/22/11 Foreign Reserves 15-Jul - - $184.2B 7/28/11 Imports YoY% JUN - - 13.0%

7/28/11 Total Capacity Utilization ISIC

JUN - - 58.7 7/28/11 Trade Balance JUN - - -35.7B

7/28/11 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)

JUN - - -3.88 7/29/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUN - - 11.4%

7/28/11 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)

JUN - - 181.32 7/29/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

JUN - - -7.9B

7/29/11 Total Exports YOY% JUN - - 17.3% 7/31/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUN - - 12.5%

7/29/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

JUN - - $19284M 7/31/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUN - - 11.5%

7/29/11 Total Imports YOY% JUN - - 34.4% 8/1/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

JUN - - 27.8%

7/29/11 Total Imports in US$ Million

JUN - - $19010M 8/1/11 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)

JUN - - 21.6%

7/29/11 Total Trade Balance JUN - - $274M 03-04 AUG

Purchasing Managers Index

JUL - - 50.3

7/29/11 Current Account Balance (USD)

JUN - - -$511M 8/12/11 GDP sa (QoQ) 2Q - - 2.8%

7/29/11 Overall Balance in US$ Million

JUN - - -$2600M 8/12/11 GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.2%

7/29/11 Business Sentiment Index

JUN - - 50.9 8/18/11 Unemployment Rate SA JUL - - 3.50%

7/29/11 Forward Contracts 22-Jul - - - - 8/18/11 Composite Interest Rate JUL - - 0.3%

7/29/11 Foreign Reserves 22-Jul - - - - 8/22/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

JUL - - - -



13

Indonesia Sri Lanka


8/1/11 Inflation (YoY) JUL - - 5.54% 25-29 JUL

Exports YoY% MAY - - 37.2%

8/1/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) JUL - - 0.55% 25-29 JUL

Imports YoY% MAY - - 53.7%

8/1/11 Core Inflation (YoY) JUL - - 4.63% 7/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

JUL - - 6.7%

8/1/11 Exports (YoY) JUN - - 45.3% 7/31/11 CPI (YoY) JUL - - 7.1%

8/1/11 Total Imports (YoY) JUN - - 48.5% 07-15 AUG

Exports YoY% JUN - - - -

8/1/11 Total Trade Balance JUN - - $3509M 07-15 AUG

Imports YoY% JUN - - - -

01-11 AUG

Consumer Confidence Index

JUL - - 109 8/19/11 Repurchase Rate 19-Aug - - 7.000%

02-10 AUG

Danareksa Consumer Confidence

JUL - - 91.8 8/19/11 Reverse Repo Rate 19-Aug - - 8.500%

03-09 AUG

Foreign Reserves JUL - - $119.66B 8/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

AUG - - - -

03-09 AUG

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

JUL - - 995.25T 8/31/11 CPI (YoY) AUG - - - -

08-12 AUG

GDP Constant Price (YoY)

2Q - - 6.46% 07-15 SEP

Exports YoY% JUL - - - -

08-12 AUG

GDP Constant Price (QoQ)

2Q - - 1.53% 07-15 SEP

Imports YoY% JUL - - - -

08-12 AUG

Money Supply - M1 (YoY) JUN - - 19.0% 15-25 SEP

GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.9%

08-12 AUG

Money Supply - M2 (YoY) JUN - - 15.5% 9/16/11 Repurchase Rate 16-Sep - - - -

8/9/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

9-Aug - - 6.75% 9/16/11 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Sep - - - -


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

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absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

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15

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Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 22 July 2011...

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