Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 16 September 2011...

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0182

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 16 September 2011

Singapore

� STI: +1%, 2766. Euro Stoxx50: +3.47%, 2156. S&P500: +1.72% 1209. Treasuries fell, US$ index fell 0.78%. Commodity CRB index fell 0.45%.

� Stocks advanced as the ECB coordinated with major central banks the world over - the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss - to supply Euro region banks with US$ till the end of the year. The fact that they have to do this speaks volumes of the malfunctioning state of European money markets as banks grow weary of each other in the face sovereign debt default.

� Meanwhile US industrial production advanced 0.2%m-m in August on the back of July revised higher to 0.9%m-m, while new claims for unemployment insurance rose to 428k, the second week running. CPI advanced 0.4%m-m (3.8%y-y), higher than expected. Even as we believe in a Mfg led US recovery, not consumption led, increasing UI claims is a little disconcerting. CPI now running at 3.8%y-y is a signal to us that the Fed's QE policy is backfiring as abundant liquidity is stoking inflation, hammering consumption, and helping cause a low growth environment - which can become a bad stagflationary cocktail.

� Despite the "rebound" in stocks the issue remains if Greece can avoid default. We still recommend caution with stocks. Our technical analyst recommends watching levels - if the STI clears 2823 we may have a short term rally. If it breaks 2720, go short.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2765.95 26.60 0.97P/E (x) 7.79P/Bv (x) 1.34

3.97Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

9/15 12/15 3/15 6/15 9/15

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong

� Local Stocks rallied due to Germany and France support Greece stay in Euro Zone, local investors expected the sovereign debt crisis could be settled. The HSI and HSCEI gained 136.06 points and 82.81 point to 19181.50 and 10051.67 respectively. Market volume reached 67.89 billion.

� As expected the market would demonstrate a choppy trend yesterday. However, the HSI consolidate over 19000 which is a good signal for challenging the previous technical supporting level range from 19600-19000.

� Technically, the HSI got strong support around 19000, investors are suggested trading buy the local consumption stocks as the “Golden week” holiday will begin in China, we expect this will boost the selling of local consumption stock

� We peg resistance for the HSI at 19800 and support 19000 Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 19181.50 136.06 0.71P/E (x) 8.83P/Bv (x) 1.38

3.57Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

9/15 12/15 3/15 6/15 9/15

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 16 September 2011

2

Thailand � Trading in the Thai stock market remained extremely choppy yesterday but with

a positive bias. The rise was in line with overseas stock markets worldwide following emerging hopes of Europe’s debt salvation. The composite SET index ended the session at its peak, up 13.25 points. Trading volume was still thin, reflecting a lacking of conviction in the market direction. Foreign investors remained net sellers of Thai shares worth Bt938.82m on Thu.

� On this basis we believe the SET index would continue its bullish momentum, tracking positive cues from regional stock markets today. However, we think the upside will remain capped at 1040-1050 due to the fragility of the market amid euro-zone’s sovereign debt saga and risk of US recession.

� For investment strategy, there is still room for short-term trading but we prefer investors gradually book profits on market rebound.

� Resistance on the main index is pegged at 1042-1048 and support at 1020-1010 today.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1036.21 13.25 1.30P/E (x) 12.59P/Bv (x) 1.94

4.07Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

9/15 12/15 3/15 6/15 9/15

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

� On yesterday’s market opening, the Jakarta Composite index (JCI) started the day on a negative territory. Then, the index stayed red during the trading day. The JCI closed at 3,774.334, or down 24.703 points (-0.65%) after making an intra-day low of 3,710.092 and intra-day high of 3,829.376

� The downward movement was mainly led by losses in Consumer Goods sector (-2.13%), Miscellaneous Industry sector (-2.13%) and Manufacturing sector (-1.94). While further downward move was limited by Infrastructure sector (+1.12%) and Finance sector (+0.14%). The breadth of the market was negative with 145 shares declined as compared to76 that advancing. The total turnover on regular market was recorded at IDR 4.84 trillion (USD 552.5 million).

� Today, we have an expectation that the JCI has support-resistance level of 3,735 – 3,840.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 3774.33 -24.70 -0.65P/E (x) 16.54P/Bv (x) 2.87

2.16Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

9/15 12/15 3/15 6/15 9/15

Source: Bloomberg

Sri Lanka � Market concluded another trading day in the red zone amidst heavy selling

pressure. Both indices experienced significant decline and ASPI closed the day at 6,850.93 dropping 44.68 points, while the MPI closed recording 6,178.49 dropping 49.16 Points. 229 counters engaged in trading today. The negative contributors overtook the positive contributors by 146:48. AMF Co Ltd was the top gainer today with 20.43% increase in price levels against the previous day, Price losers were led by Samson International PLC, recorded a decline of 9.73% compared to the previous day.

� The market turnover was Rs 1.4Bn, 14.7% reduction against the previous day. BLUE, BLUE(X) and CLND were the top contributors to the daily turnover contributing Rs: 108Mn, Rs: 105Mn and 75mn respectively. With the heavy contribution of BLUE and BLUE (X) Manufacturing sector emerged as the best performing sector recording a sector turnover of Rs. 226Mn. The Banking and Finance sector recorded a considerable contribution of Rs 192Mn to the daily turnover.

� The total traded volume for the day recorded 87.7Mn with a significant decline of 25.5% against the previous day. The more liquid BLUE (20Mn), BLUE.X (9.2Mn) and MULL (8.3Mn) shares were heavily traded mainly among the retailers; JKH and GUAR recorded crossings highlighting Institutional investors’ interest on the counters. The market recorded a net foreign outflow of Rs. 47mn.

Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 6850.93 -44.68 -0.65P/E (x) 16.03P/Bv (x) 2.61

1.54Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

9/15 12/15 3/15 6/15 9/15

Source: Bloomberg


3

Singapore Technical Analysis – FFSTI: in a narrow range, take a break. � Market failed to show favourable chart movements despite good showing from the European and US markets. We believe our STI is

trading in a tight narrow range which had left traders bewildered on market direction as their cut loss levels are triggered in regardless of the trading directions. Current trading environment is the best for scalpers but since most of the investors do not have the luxury of time to monitor trades, we think it is better to take a break while waiting for the STI to penetrate either support or resistance. By then, it should be easier to game for a larger up/down move.

Hong Kong Beijing Capital Land (2868,HK) – Company Initiation Recommendation: Buy Last close: $1.81 Fair Value: $2.4 � Contracted sales totaled RMB6.74 billion, up 13.3% year on year as at the end of August. On the whole, its completion situation of 50%

is not positive, obviously later than peers of 55%. We are cautiously positive about sales future. Despite that more projects to be launched, it’s hard to hit the full-year sales target of 15billion, and we expect that its sales in2011 will reach 13billion.

� Core earning dropped slightly by 4.3% YoY to RMB307.5m, equivalent to 26% of our full-year earning forecast. It was due to drop of recognized sales volume, as seen by 39% decrease in turnover. Nevertheless, gross margin surged dramatically from 31.1% in 1H10 to 53.1% in 1H11, mainly attributed to the recognition of high-margin projects in Beijing, such as Xanadu and the Reflections. Accordingly, core net margin increased from 11.8% in 1H10 to 18.5% in 1H11.

� According to our estimation, BCL’s profit will keep increase in 2011 and 2012, which will be RMB 1.18billion and 1.24billion, EPS at RMB 0.587 and 0.611.

� In our opinion, for regulation risk, values of Mainland properties companies are undervalued, in coming years Mainland properties companies will enjoy average valuation of the market. We give BCL “Buy” rating, 12m TP at HKD 2.4, representing to 3.3X P/E on 2011 EPS and 52% discount to NAV per share.

Thailand Thai Vegetable Oil – Company Update Recommendation: TRADING SELL Previous close: Bt23.80 Fair value: Bt22.50

� Although changing climate is positive to commodity products prices, we do not foresee price sustainability in view of lingering concerns over a bleak world economic outlook.

� We have downgraded 2011 projection by 31% owing to lower gross profit margin as a result of an oversupply situation of soybean meal products.

� Our rating has also been revised from ‘HOLD to ‘TRADING SELL’, while our price target for 2012 is now at Bt22.50/share.

Media and Publishing Sector – Sector Update Recommendation: OVERWEIGHT

� Total ad spending in Aug rose by 10.01%, recovering from rates of less than 10% during the last 2 months. Strong growth was witnessed in other media segment from TV ad spend that led the market in 1H11.

� Growth in TV ad spending is projected to slow during the rest of the year owing to a large base last year. This might impact overall growth for the industry as TV ad spending accounts for the largest share.

� We maintain our ‘OVERWEIGHT’ rating on the media and publishing sector. Our top picks include: 1) WORK with our 2012 price target at Bt18/share. The company is also expected to announce Bt1.60/share interim dividend for 1H11. 2) MAJOR with our 2011 price target at Bt19.30/share. We foresee continued good revenue growth from movies and ad spending in cinemas.


4

Market News

US � The cost of living in the U.S. climbed more than forecast and unemployment claims rose, battering the confidence of Americans

squeezed by stagnant wages and higher prices of food, housing and energy. The consumer-price index increased 0.4 percent in August, and jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index held last week at the second-lowest level of 2011 as the most households in three years said it was a bad time to spend. Unemployment stuck around 9 percent may prompt consumers to keep cutting back, hurting sales at companies like Best Buy Co. and prompting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to consider additional measures to spur growth when central bankers meet next week. A report from the Fed today showed manufacturing, a mainstay of the recovery, continued to support the economy last month. (Source: Bloomberg)

� Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in August, signaling manufacturing will support the world’s largest economy. Output at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.2 percent after a 0.9 percent gain in July, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Economists had forecast no change, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Factory production, which makes up 75 percent of the total, advanced 0.5 percent. Overseas demand and capital spending by American companies may keep assembly lines busy and boost manufacturing, which led the recovery from the recession. At the same time, unemployment above 9 percent and the lack of jobs is limiting sales, one reason factories may find it harder to gain speed. (Source: Bloomberg)

� U.S. consumer confidence held last week at the second-lowest level of 2011 as the most households in three years said it was a bad time to spend. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 49.3 in the period to Sept. 11, near this year’s low of minus 49.4 reached in May. The buying climate gauge slumped to the lowest level since October 2008. Nine of every 10 Americans polled had a negative view on the economy as the job market stagnated and wages failed to keep up with inflation, one reason why companies like Best Buy Co. are seeing sales slump. A drop in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, would raise the risk the recovery that began two years ago will falter. (Source: Bloomberg)

� Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since the end of June, underscoring the risk of further weakness in the labor market. Jobless claims climbed by 11,000 to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 that included the Labor Day holiday, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 411,000, according to the median forecast. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Cisco Systems Inc. are among companies planning to keep trimming payrolls, raising the risk that consumer spending will stagnate. Signs the labor market is struggling to gain traction puts more pressure on President Barack Obama, lawmakers and the Federal Reserve for additional steps to spur the economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

Singapore

� Some property consultants are now predicting that developers could end the year with sales of 15,000-16,000 private homes, excluding executive condominiums (ECs). The upper end of this band is close to the 16,292 units developers sold last year. Better-than-expected August sales numbers released yesterday fanned such forecasts. Some also expect developers to continue their launch-as-fast-as-you-can strategy for mass-market projects on sites bought at state land tenders while others are counting on overseas monies seeking safe-haven destinations such as Singapore. Urban Redevelopment Authority figures show developers sold 1,348 private homes in August, down 3.6 per cent from 1,398 units in July. Some analysts had earlier predicted August sales could slip below 1,000 units amid slower buying during the Hungry Ghosts Month and the stockmarket slide that began in early August. (Source: BT Online)

� Net job gains in the second quarter in Singapore were higher than first thought, but the upward revision in the final figure hasn't changed the picture painted by the earlier estimate: a cooling of the labour market. Total employment rose 24,800 - 2,000 higher than the preliminary 22,800 that was first reported in July, according to the Ministry of Manpower's (MOM) latest labour market report released yesterday. But the second-quarter job gains were still lower than those of the first quarter, when 28,300 jobs were churned out. And the slower job growth has raised the jobless rate in June to levels of a year ago at around 2.1 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent in March. (Source: BT Online)

� Government agencies yesterday launched four 99-year leasehold condominium residential sites for sale by tender, which can potentially yield up to 1,955 housing units. Of the three land parcels launched by the Housing & Development Board (HDB), two sites were launched for sale under the confirmed list of the government land sales (GLS) programme. They are located at Punggol Central/Edgedale Plains, and Yishun Avenue 1/Miltonia Close. The third land parcel, located at Bishan Street 14, is made available for application for sale under the reserve list for the second half of 2011. The site located at Punggol Central measures 20,256.1 sq m and has a maximum permissible gross floor area (GFA) of 60,768.30 sq m. The development can accommodate approximately 610 housing units. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region

� NDRC deputy director: China can maintain stable prices. NDRC Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director said on Wednesday that China will keep prices stable, although difficult to manage inflation expectations, do not think that China's monetary policy will be adjusted. China August CPI index rose 6.2 percent yoy, indicating a slight easing of inflation pressures.(Source: Cnyes)

� Central Bank: 70% of residents believe that housing prices is too high. According to the People's Bank of China News, 15, the central bank released the third quarter of 2011 depositors survey report shows that residents of the low price satisfaction, inflation expectation is remain strong; residents are still feeling the current price is too high, expected future price of "stability" and "continue to rise," consumption will remain low, the savings will continue to rise.(Source: Cnfol)

� The soybean average price imports before the August rose 30%. Customs data show that the first eight months of this year, China's soybean imports 33.58 million tons, drop of nearly 200 million tons compared to last year; but the import price of $ 574.8 per ton, up 31.2% yoy, total imports totaling $ 19.3 billion, compared with $ 15.56 billion last year rose 24.0%. This indicates that the imported


5

inflation in China has become one of the important factors (Source: Cnfol)

Thailand � PTTCH said it is ranked among the top 100 leading global chemical companies in the ICIS Top 100 Chemical Companies due to its

impressive performance in 2010. (Source: efinance) � Foreign investors remained net sellers of Thai equities worth Bt938.82m on Thu. (Source: Bisnews) � The developed world's economies have become ensnared in a growth slowdown that threatens to turn into recession, Reuters polls

showed. The median probability of a second recession in the US, euro zone and Britain has also climbed to roughly one in three. (Source: Reuters)

� SCG Cement said profits will drop as cement demand growth may not exceed 5% this year due to heavy floods while the Commerce Ministry has sought cooperation to cut cement prices by Bt5-Bt10/bag. (Source: Post Today)

� The Office of the Attorney General has finally ruled that the second-ranked mobile operator DTAC can offer commercial 3G broadband service, says the Information and Communication Technology minister. (Source: Bangkok Post)

Indonesia � Indonesian government is planning to seek foreign loans worth USD 1.9 billion to cover a budget deficit projected to reach 1.5 percent of

the gross domestic product next year. The government was still relying on foreign loans, domestic loans and debt securities to cover the budget deficit. In 2006-2011, Indonesia’s total debt servicing (sum of interest and principal payment) increased. To cover the budget deficit, the government was planning to make loans from various international agencies both under multilateral and bilateral schemes. Of the total loans, USD 1.3 billion would come from the World Bank, USD 450 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and USD 150 million from the Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA). (Source: Bisnis Indonesia)

� Bank Indonesia will soon issue a regulation requiring exporters to put foreign exchange earnings in national foreign exchange banks as of October 1, 2011, with a period of transition until December 31, 2011 to allow exporters to adjust to it. The regulation will also require borrowers of foreign loans to put foreign loans in national foreign exchange banks. BI would also give exporters until a maximum of six months in 2012 after exporting goods by filling export notifications and a maximum of three months after filling export notifications in 2013 to put their foreign exchange earnings in national foreign exchange banks. (Source: KOMPAS)

� Bank Indonesia will intervene with the market volatility of Rupiah to keep it at a manageable level following the depreciating trend of Rupiah against the US dollar. Rupiah on Thursday closed at IDR 8,884 per US dollar, from the IDR 8,663 position on Tuesday. Previous trading session on Thursday, the Rupiah closed and even slipped to IDR 8,938 per US dollar. Bank Indonesia said that Rupiah depreciation against the US dollar depended on the investors’ concerns about the European and Greece debt crisis. Bank Indonesia, however, claims there is still room for the Rupiah to rebound since capital inflow has been flowing into the country at a significant degree as investors are turning to emerging markets for their investments. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

Sri Lanka � Sri Lanka's Treasuries yields were steady at Wednesday's auction with the 3-month yield flat at 7.11 percent. The 6-month yield edged

up one basis point to 7.20 percent and the 12-month yield rose one basis point to 7.26 percent. Central Bank announced that 10.05 billion in bills were sold with 4.0 billion in 3-month bills, 2.5 billion rupees in 6-month bills and 3.4 billion rupees in 12-month bills. (Source: www.lbo.lk )

� Sri Lanka's central bank is ready to start daily cash auctions in money markets Governor said, as dollar sales to maintain a currency peg rapidly sucked rupees out of the banking system. "If liquidity is low and we do not have excess liquidity, we will resume daily auctions," Governor stated. On Wednesday excess liquidity fell to 23.1 billion rupees amid steady foreign exchange sales to maintain a peg around 110 rupees to the dollar. Excess liquidity is down from a high of 77.9 billion rupees reached on July 28 after the central bank bought dollars from a sovereign bond. The daily open market auctions are coming after an absence of over two years. (Source: www.lbo.lk )

� Vietnam is considering setting up a tractor plant in Sri Lanka and also joint ventures in garment manufacture. Vietnam is keen to import more coconuts from Sri Lanka, collaborate in garment manufacturing and also to set up a manufacturing plant for two wheel tractors here. Among the promising Sri Lankan products to the Vietnam retail market which is about 80 million US dollars are coconuts and gems. Vietnam likes to import Sri Lankan coconuts in the million-nut volumes. (Source: www.lbo.lk )


6

Dollar Index 76.29 +0.00%

70

75

80

85

90

9/1

6/1

0

10/1

6/1

0

11/1

6/1

0

12/1

6/1

0

1/1

6/1

1

2/1

6/1

1

3/1

6/1

1

4/1

6/1

1

5/1

6/1

1

6/1

6/1

1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1788.58 +0.10%

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

9/1

6/1

0

10/1

6/1

0

11/1

6/1

0

12/1

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1/1

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1

2/1

6/1

1

3/1

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1

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1

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6/1

1

6/1

6/1

1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

9/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 89.4 +0.55%

70

80

90

100

110

120

9/1

6/1

0

10/1

6/1

0

11/1

6/1

0

12/1

6/1

0

1/1

6/1

1

2/1

6/1

1

3/1

6/1

1

4/1

6/1

1

5/1

6/1

1

6/1

6/1

1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 2.082 +4.96%

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

9/1

6/1

0

10/1

6/1

0

11/1

6/1

0

12/1

6/1

0

1/1

6/1

1

2/1

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1

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6/1

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6/1

1

5/1

6/1

1

6/1

6/1

1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 11433.18 +1.66%

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

9/1

6/1

0

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6/1

0

11/1

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1/1

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1

3/1

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1

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6/1

1

5/1

6/1

1

6/1

6/1

1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 INDEX 1209.11 +1.72%

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

9/1

6/1

0

10/1

6/1

0

11/1

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1

5/1

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1

6/1

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1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2484.83 -0.23%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

9/1

6/1

0

10/1

6/1

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11/1

6/1

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12/1

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1/1

6/1

1

2/1

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1

3/1

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1

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1

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1

6/1

6/1

1

7/1

6/1

1

8/1

6/1

1

Source: Bloomberg


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Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +2.12 +19.85 955.41 ALL ORDINARIES INDX +1.54 +62.80 4153.20

HANG SENG INDEX +0.71 +136.06 19181.50 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX +1.07 +131.46 12424.84

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX -0.65 -24.70 3774.33 FTSE 100 INDEX +2.11 +110.52 5337.54

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI -0.46 -6.68 1430.93 CAC 40 INDEX +3.27 +96.48 3045.62

KOSPI INDEX +1.42 +24.92 1774.08 DAX INDEX +3.15 +168.05 5508.24

NIKKEI 225 +1.76 +150.29 8668.86 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG +1.66 +186.45 11433.18

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX +1.30 +13.25 1036.21 S&P 500 INDEX +1.72 +20.43 1209.11

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -0.23 -5.77 2479.05 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX +1.34 +34.52 2607.07

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX +2.17 +157.21 7385.68 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS -0.79 -4.78 597.73

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX +1.00 +166.94 16876.54

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH -0.65 -44.68 6850.93

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.69 +1.20 +0.020 169,742,300 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.69 +1.20 +0.020 100,585,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

3.10 +1.31 +0.040 114,410,400 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.67 -0.75 -0.005 63,028,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

12.37 +1.73 +0.210 91,889,220 GMG GLOBAL LTD 0.24 +4.44 +0.010 39,572,000

SEMBCORP MARINE

3.80 +0.00 +0.000 63,937,170 SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD

0.46 +0.00 +0.000 37,899,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.55 +0.00 +0.000 55,658,820 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

3.10 +1.31 +0.040 37,318,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

8.60 +0.58 +0.050 55,186,360 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.55 +0.00 +0.000 35,774,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

17.55 +2.63 +0.450 53,563,470 AUSGROUP LTD 0.35 +4.48 +0.015 26,654,000

OCBC BANK 8.34 +2.46 +0.200 48,908,920 CHINA NEW TOWN DEVELOPMENT

0.08 -7.32 -0.006 19,357,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.67 -0.75 -0.005 42,280,610 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD

3.80 +0.00 +0.000 16,910,000

CAPITALAND LTD 2.55 +0.00 +0.000 34,660,920 DEBAO PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT

0.12 -8.00 -0.010 13,940,000


Hong Kong


CHINA MOBILE 79.95 +0.06 +0.05 2,506,412,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 2.89 -0.34 -0.01 405,733,480

CHINA CONST BA-H 5.57 +0.36 +0.02 1,573,437,000 IND & COMM BK-H 4.68 +0.86 +0.04 560,560,000

IND & COMM BK-H 4.68 +0.86 +0.04 1,546,453,000 AGRICULTURAL-H 3.10 -2.21 -0.07 287,789,942

CNOOC LTD 13.40 +0.30 +0.04 1,326,372,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

5.57 +0.36 +0.02 283,626,120

AIA GROUP LTD 24.65 +4.45 +1.05 1,251,857,000 SEMICONDUCTOR MA

0.49 +8.99 +0.04 154,659,500

BANK OF CHINA-H 2.89 -0.34 -0.01 1,170,416,000 EVERGRANDE REAL

3.71 +6.00 +0.21 138,626,569

HSBC HLDGS PLC 62.65 +1.46 +0.90 1,168,725,000 CHINA TELECOM-H

5.17 +2.17 +0.11 133,080,534

CHINA LIFE INS-H 18.96 +2.82 +0.52 1,079,599,000 CHINA PETROLEU-H

7.46 +1.50 +0.11 112,587,324

PETROCHINA CO-H 9.65 +2.22 +0.21 1,001,300,000 PETROCHINA CO-H

9.65 +2.22 +0.21 104,126,404

AGRICULTURAL-H 3.10 -2.21 -0.07 905,861,500 SIMSEN INTERNATI

0.02 -6.25 -0.00 101,050,000



8

Thailand


BANGKOK BANK PUB

152.00 +3.05 +4.50 1,657,242,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.67 +4.69 +0.03 577,242,800

SIAM CEMENT PCL 311.00 +0.32 +1.00 1,501,890,000 ANGPAO ASSETS PC

0.59 +0.00 +0.00 188,406,300

PTT PCL 316.00 +1.28 +4.00 1,365,565,000 TMB BANK PCL 1.74 +2.35 +0.04 184,592,600

KASIKORNBANK PCL

121.00 +2.11 +2.50 1,065,110,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

2.20 +2.80 +0.06 120,384,000

BANPU PUB CO LTD 628.00 +2.95 +18.00 1,001,612,000 TRUE CORP PCL 3.92 +0.00 +0.00 91,134,900

PTT CHEMICAL PCL 125.00 +2.04 +2.50 922,392,000 NATURAL PARK PCL

0.03 +0.00 +0.00 83,612,400

BANK AYUDHYA PCL

23.20 +0.43 +0.10 807,818,000 KC PROPERTY PCL

1.00 +4.17 +0.04 55,115,100

KRUNG THAI BANK 18.20 +2.82 +0.50 841,410,000 ENERGY EARTH PCL

4.82 +0.84 +0.04 55,108,400

ADVANCED INFO 122.50 +2.08 +2.50 826,660,000 BROOKER GROUP 1.06 +3.92 +0.04 50,188,600

INDORAMA VENTURE

35.25 +3.68 +1.25 717,639,000 KRUNG THAI BANK

18.20 +2.82 +0.50 42,605,800


Indonesia


BANK MANDIRI 6350.00 -1.55 -100.00 592,575,600,000 ENERGI MEGA PERS 178.00 -3.26 -6.00 340,990,500

ASTRA INTERNATIO 65300.00 -2.17 -

1450.00 484,936,600,000 AGIS TBK PT 162.00 8.00 12.00 194,140,000

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6300.00 2.44 150.00 360,869,300,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 61.00 0.00 0.00 149,749,500

BANK CENTRAL ASI 7900.00 1.94 150.00 201,173,400,000 PACIFIC STRATEGI 340.00 -6.85 -25.00 125,409,500

BUMI RESOURCES 2600.00 -0.95 -25.00 198,575,600,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 135.00 0.00 0.00 121,682,500

BANK NEGARA INDO 3875.00 -1.27 -50.00 169,604,000,000 LIPPO KARAWACI 700.00 -2.78 -20.00 101,080,500

BANK DANAMON 4950.00 -4.81 -250.00 165,060,800,000 BANK MANDIRI 6350.00 -1.55 -100.00 93,727,000

UNITED TRACTORS 22900.00 -0.87 -200.00 149,522,700,000 BUMI RESOURCES 2600.00 -0.95 -25.00 76,837,500

INDOFOOD SUKSES 5450.00 -1.80 -100.00 133,302,600,000 SENTUL CITY TBK 295.00 0.00 0.00 70,416,500

TELEKOMUNIKASI 7500.00 2.04 150.00 125,045,500,000 BENAKAT PETROLEU 100.00 1.01 1.00 69,716,000


Sri Lanka


BLUE DIAMONDS JE 11.40 0.00 0.00 108,063,800 BLUE DIAMONDS JE 11.40 0.00 0.00 9,241,100

COLOMBO LAND & D 60.50 -3.20 -2.00 74,935,410 MULLER & PHIPPS 3.50 9.38 0.30 8,256,000

CEYLON GUARDIAN 335.00 -1.35 -4.60 66,267,670 SMB LEASING PLC 2.70 3.85 0.10 4,809,200

HVA FOODS LTD 60.00 -9.64 -6.40 64,339,970 AMANA TAKAFUL 2.80 0.00 0.00 4,772,800

REGNIS LANKA PLC 192.80 10.17 17.80 62,841,540 PANASIAN POWER L 5.00 -1.96 -0.10 3,944,300

JOHN KEELLS HLDG 216.80 -0.91 -2.00 55,888,040 TESS AGRO LTD 6.30 8.62 0.50 3,718,400

COLONIAL MOTORS 471.40 2.41 11.10 49,809,680 FREE LANKA CAPIT 4.00 0.00 0.00 2,894,200

LAUGFS GAS LTD-V 40.60 -3.33 -1.40 41,298,590 SMB LEASING - NV 0.80 0.00 0.00 2,146,500

MULLER & PHIPPS 3.50 9.38 0.30 28,546,950 BROWNS INVESTMEN 5.20 0.00 0.00 2,003,400

TESS AGRO LTD 6.30 8.62 0.50 23,425,920 LANKA ORIX FINAN 11.50 6.48 0.70 1,467,300



9

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ +0.10 +1.70 1,788.58 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7794 1.0321

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ -0.08 -0.03 39.85 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.7929 0.9857

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px +0.55 +0.49 89.40 EURO 0.5800 1.3867

BRITISH POUND 0.5095 1.5768 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8035 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.1390 6.3890

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard +0.61 +8.50 1404.00 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.2660 7.7902

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) -0.42 -13.00 3081.00 JAPANESE YEN 61.7300 76.7400

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 895.1262 1113.0000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4812 3.0850

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.00 +0.00 76.29 THAI BAHT 24.4089 30.3500


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6 Months 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05

2 Years 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18

3 Years 0.35 0.35 0.32 0.33

5 Years 0.94 0.89 0.86 0.93

10 Years 2.08 1.99 1.97 2.22

30 Years 3.36 3.27 3.31 3.67

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 2.08

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 1.90

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

9/16/11 Net Long-term TIC Flows

JUL $22.5B $3.7B 9/16/11 Electronic Exports (YoY) AUG -14.9% -16.9%

9/16/11 Total Net TIC Flows JUL - - -$29.5B 9/16/11 Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)

AUG -6.5% -2.8%

9/16/11 U. of Michigan Confidence

SEP P 56.9 55.7 9/16/11 Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM)

AUG -1.0% -2.3%

9/17/11 Flow of Funds 9/21/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A

21-Sep

- - 51000

9/19/11 NAHB Housing Market Index

SEP 15 15 9/21/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B

21-Sep

- - 63002

9/20/11 Housing Starts AUG 590K 604K 9/21/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

21-Sep

- - 65589

9/20/11 Housing Starts MOM% AUG -2.3% - - 9/23/11 CPI (MOM) - NSA AUG - - 1.5%

9/20/11 Building Permits AUG 588K 597K 9/23/11 CPI (YoY) AUG - - 5.4%

9/20/11 Building Permits MOM% AUG -2.2% -3.2% 9/26/11 Industrial Production MoM SA

AUG - - 0.3%

9/21/11 MBA Mortgage Applications

16-Sep - - 6.3%

9/26/11 Industrial Production YoY AUG - - 7.4%



10

Thailand Hong Kong


9/16/11 Foreign Reserves 9-Sep - - - - 9/19/11 Composite Interest Rate AUG - - 0.31%

9/16/11 Forward Contracts 9-Sep - - - - 9/20/11 Unemployment Rate SA AUG - - 3.4%

19-23 SEP

Total Car Sales AUG - - 72902 9/22/11 Bal of Paymts - Current A/C

2Q - - $40.64B

20-23 SEP

Customs Exports (YoY) AUG - - 38.3% 9/22/11 Bal of Paymts - Overall 2Q - - $18.69B

20-23 SEP

Customs Imports (YoY) AUG - - 13.5% 9/22/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

AUG - - 7.9%

20-23 SEP

Customs Trade Balance AUG - - $2798M 9/27/11 Exports YoY% AUG - - 9.3%

9/23/11 Foreign Reserves 16-Sep - - - - 9/27/11 Imports YoY% AUG - - 10.2%

9/23/11 Forward Contracts 16-Sep - - - - 9/27/11 Trade Balance AUG - - -35.9B

28-29 SEP

Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)

AUG - - -1.11 9/30/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 15.5%

28-29 SEP

Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)

AUG - - 185.69 9/30/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 9.4%

28-29 SEP

Total Capacity Utilization ISIC

AUG - - 63.0 9/30/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 9.3%

9/30/11 Foreign Reserves 23-Sep - - - - 9/30/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

AUG - - 2.2B

9/30/11 Total Exports YOY% AUG - - 36.4% 10/3/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

AUG - - 29.1%

9/30/11 Forward Contracts 23-Sep - - - - 10/3/11 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)

AUG - - 22.4%

9/30/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

AUG - - $21098M 10/5/11 Purchasing Managers Index

SEP - - 47.8


Indonesia Sri Lanka


19-23 SEP

Total Local Auto Sales AUG - - 89056 15-25 SEP GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.9%

19-23 SEP

Total Motorcycle Sales AUG - - 737809 9/16/11 Repurchase Rate 16-Sep - - 7.000%

02-11 OCT

Consumer Confidence Index

SEP - - 110.6 9/16/11 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Sep - - 8.500%

10/3/11 Inflation (YoY) SEP - - 4.79% 23-30 SEP Exports YoY% JUL - - 31.6%

10/3/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) SEP - - 0.93% 23-30 SEP Imports YoY% JUL - - 49.6%

10/3/11 Core Inflation (YoY) SEP - - 5.15% 9/30/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

SEP - - 7.1%

10/3/11 Exports (YoY) AUG - - 39.5% 9/30/11 CPI (YoY) SEP - - 7.0%

10/3/11 Total Imports (YoY) AUG - - 27.2% 07-15 OCT Exports YoY% AUG - - - -

10/3/11 Total Trade Balance AUG - - $1363M 07-15 OCT Imports YoY% AUG - - - -

03-07 OCT

Danareksa Consumer Confidence

SEP - - 88.2 10/11/11 Repurchase Rate 11-Oct - - - -

03-07 OCT

Foreign Reserves SEP - - $124.64B 10/11/11 Reverse Repo Rate 11-Oct - - - -

05-09 OCT

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

SEP - - 1035.32T 10/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

OCT - - - -

07-13 OCT

Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

AUG - - 18.5% 10/31/11 CPI (YoY) OCT - - - -

07-13 OCT

Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

AUG - - 15.6% 07-15 NOV Exports YoY% SEP - - - -

10/11/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

11-Oct - - 6.75% 07-15 NOV Imports YoY% SEP - - - -


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

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We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

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absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

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12

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