Philip Martin: plmartin@ucdavis · 2017-11-29 · FY 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Change Review of Positions...
Transcript of Philip Martin: plmartin@ucdavis · 2017-11-29 · FY 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Change Review of Positions...
Immigration & Farm Labor 2017 Philip Martin: [email protected]
Finding sufficient & affordable labor is the farmer’s #1 challenge H.P. Stabler (1903)
Farm Labor Issues • Seasonality: biological prod process, competitive ag
– Peak-trough ratio—1.4 for US; up as geography down – Want workers to be available when needed
• Hired workers: low education & manual labor – Crews of interchangeable workers (contractors) – Exit vs voice: revolving-door farm labor market
• Protecting workers: rising labor costs lead to • Labor-saving mechanization & changes to raise prody • Rising imports from lower-wage countries
• Labor compliance: govt & buyers – Tight labor market #1 protection—gives workers options – Labor law mins & level playing field: enforce, educa,
unions – Other actors: er associations, buyers, NGOs, consumers
US Highlights • Hired workers: average employ, 1.2 million in 2016;
900,000 crops & crop support; 300,000 animal ag • Hired farm workers = 70% Mexican-born; 50% not
authorized; from 30% newcomers in 2000 to 1% • Employer responses to fewer newcomers – Satisfy: bonuses, train supers. If supply US FWs inelastic,
wage increases do not = more workers – Stretch: mechanical aids to make work easier for older
workers & women (conveyor belts; dwarf trees) – Substitution: labor-saving mechanization (& switch crops) – Supplement: young H-2A workers = fresh blood, but must
(1) recruit US, (2) provide housing, (3) pay AEWR ($12 CA) – Imports: half of fresh fruits, ¼ of fresh vegetables, are imported
Per cap i·ta U.S. fruit and vegetabl 1e availa bi lity , 1970-2005
n f u
2
Americans eating more fresh fruits and vegetables
Fresh fruits up 30% 1970-2011; fresh vegetables up 20% But cheese per capita up 200%; corn syrup up 300%
.. -
' 11, .,,,,-
'"
Demand up for very labor intensive crops
US, CA, and WA Average Ag Employment, 2007-16
1,400,000
~
~ V ~
1,200,000 _, --- ,..._ --, ,- y -,.
~ ~ .... ... , , ,,, ,
1,000,000
~ us - CA
800,000 WA
600,000
- -- -400 ,000 I -- - -- ·- .. -- --200,000
... ~ ... ... - ... ~ ... ... ~
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US average ag employment up 8%, CA up 10%, WA up 24%
How many workers? CA: 2 workers for each FTE job Average FTE Employment and Unique Farm Workers: 2007, 2012, 2015
900,000 FTE Employment Workers
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2007 2012 2015 0
US & CA Crop & Crop Support Employment, 2007-16
600,000
--- .. ~ - -~ ~ -,,, - ~ 'fr ,,.. ,, ...;
500,000 ~ us Crops - us Crop Sup
CA Crops
400,000 ~ CA Crop Sup
---- -- -- --300 ,000 --'91 ._ -.. --
-- ........ 200,000 -A ,~
- -- ' ,.., -
~ ~ -. -~ --~ ..Jo .... .l .... .... ...
100,000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US direct hire up 4%; CA flat; US crop sup up 15%; CA 22%
Since 2009: more workers are brought to CA crop farms by nonfarm employers than are hired directly by crop farms
Average FTE Crop and Crop Support Employment, 2006-15
220,000
Crop 210,000 Crop Support
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AGUA -
FARM ILA!BOR ( ,ONTRAiCTING, il,NC w gro bran s
Daity Fat
Who pays farm wages? Total in 2016: $42 billion. Big 5 = 2/3 Crop support: 24%; fruit 13%; green 11%; dairy 8%; veg 8%
CA as future? Big 5 = 92% of $14 billion in ag wages
3,000 US FLCs: ½ in CA, hire 1/3 of workers. Increase
efficiency or risk absorbers?
FLC crews harvest tree fruits for piece ratesHard to monitor workers in trees, but easy to measure output
Vegetables: direct-hire & workers via crop support firms (some FLCs are partners)
Nursery & dairy
Hired Crop Workers • Born in Mexico: 70%; unauthorized 50%; 30%
born in US • Fewer newcomers (in US less than 1 year).
Average age (38) • Settled & less flexible: FTC migration <5%. • Mostly families with US-born children; 60% get
some means-tested benefits • Workers: $10.85/hour; Employers $11.85• Average $17,500-$20,000/year; $100 a day• Farm work like nonfarm work: live off the farm,
commute to work, have 1 farm employer during year
Among unauthorized immigrants, a decline from Mexico but rise from elsewhere since 2009 In milli on:
exlcan
2.0
1,5 2.8
6.9
5.3 5.0
4.1 O h r
5.8 5.3
1990 1995 2000 2007 2009 2014
te: Shadingsurroundinglines indicates I~ and higt, points of the estimated 9cr; confiden e interval. The differen es in 1995and 2000 bet1 een Me icanand Other are notstatistical~ 1significantat 9Cr; confidence interval. Source: Pe I Research uenterestimates for 2005-2014 based on augmented 1\merican Communitf Survey data (IPUMS ; for 1995-2004 based on March Supplements of the current Population SuriJe_'. Estimates for 1990from arren and arren (2013 .
era II umberofU .S. Unauthori::ed Immigrants H Ids Stead_ Sirce 2009
PE\ RESEARCH CENTER
Larger share of unauthorized immigrants are long-term residents % ofadultunauthoriz.edimmigrants, bydurationofU.S. residenre
60
40
34
20
0 1995 2000
10 years or more
Less than 5 years
200 5
te: Data labels are for 1995, 2003 , 2005 and 2014.
2010 2014
Source: Pe • Research Center estimates for 2005-2014 based on augmented Americlln Oommunil) Sun.e_ data (IPUMS); for 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2003 based on March Supplements of the Current PopulationSun.e_. "Overall umberofU.S. Unauthorc:ed Immigrants Holds Stead_ Since 2009
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
US: unauthorized newcomers down, settled & less mobile
Agriculture: among first to feel effects of fewer flexible & unauthorized newcomers
Employers: 4-S responses • Satisfy current farm workers with bonuses,
benefits, & better supervisors. If supply of USworkers = inelastic, wage increases do not add to supply
• Stretch with mechanical aids that increase productivity: conveyor belts in fields, dwarf trees. How much to invest, how fast to deploy?
• Substitute: labor-saving mechanization. Will wageskeep rising to justify investments? Involve seed companies with long time horizons? (Switch crops?)
• Supplement the labor force with H-2As. End recruitment, housing, & AEWR? Allow H-2A workersin dairy & other year-round jobs? From 10-month to 3-year visas & Asians?
• Imports: Sep production & consumption of fresh
Satisfy: bonuses, benefits, supervisor training & respect satisfy can RETAIN but not ENLARGE ag workforce
Stretch: mechanical aids raise worker productivity
Substitute: mechanize olives, carrots, tomatoes, nursery
Defense vs ag robots: performance vs costs
u EMPLOYMENTANDDFF,cEOFFoREI.G0N LABOR CERTIFICATION H-2A Temporary Agricultural Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics, FY 2017
Applications Received FY 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Change Review of Positions Certifi ed FY 2017
FY16 (% of total certified FY 2017)
10,115 2,355 4,131 2,438 1,191 14.9% Florida 25,303 12.6%
Applications Processe d Georgia 23 ,421 11.7%
North Carolina 20 ,713 10.4% Determination FY 2017 Q1 Q2 QJ Q4
Washington 18,535 9.3% Total 10,097 1,549 4,418 2,690 1,440 Determinations Galifomia 15,232 7.6% Top 10 - Certified 9,797 1,495 4,334 2,601 1,367 States Louisiana 8,875 4.4% - Denied 144 28 39 45 32
Kentucky 7,403 3.7% -Withdrawn 156 26 45 44 41
NewYor1< 6,870 3.4% Positions 206,156 28,964 70,409 65,405 41,378 Requested 1 Michigan 6,432 3-2% Positions 200,049 28,013 68,834 62,966 40,236 Arizona 6,060 3.0% Certified Processed 97.6% 98.7% 98.0% 97.1% 95.9% North Carolina Growers 11,947 6.0% Timely2 Association, Inc.
WAFlA 7,134 3.6% • Florida
Top States • Georgia Fresh Harvest , Inc. 4,623 2.3% • North Garolina Zirkle Fruit Company 2,970 1.5%
9.3% 7.6% 4.4% 3.7% • Washington
10.4% 3.4% Top 10 Elkhorn Packing Co, LLC 2,653 1.3% • California Employers
3.2% • Louisiana Stemilt Ag . Services LLC . 2,082 1.0% 11.7% 3 .0% • Kentucky R & R Harvesting , Inc . 1,999 1.0%
30.6% • New York Michigan Footh ill Packing , Inc. 1,854 0.9%
12 .6% • Arizona Peri & Sons Farms , Inc . 1,739 0.9% • Remaining States Virgin ia Agricultural 1,602 0.8% Growers Assoc . Inc.
~
Supplement with H-2As: 75,000 FY07, 200,000 FY17 Top 5 states: FL, NC, GA, CA, WA: 51% of H-2A jobs certified
CA H2A: 3,000 in 2012, 8,600 in 2015, 15,000 in 2017 • CA: vegetable firms operate in Yuma & Salinas
– Border labor force is legal; BP agents check buses– H-2As from Yuma to Salinas: house in motels or
on-farm housing? T&A: $8 million to house 800 workers in Spreckels, $10,000 per bed
– Largest: Fresh Harvest, FLC certified to fill 4,000 jobs with H-2A workers in FY16
• Half of CA farm labor is in SJV, where fruitindustry is concentrated; more seasonal, lessgrower-shipper integration, cheaper housing
• Challenge: housing, esp in coastal metro countiesbest suited to producing high-value crops
FMR Monterey county 2017: $1,400 for 2-bedroom apartment
T&A $17 mil, 800 beds, of $21,000/bed Return to Bracero-era on-farm housing?
T&A: also houses 800 employees at 145-unit apt in Yuma, AZ since 2007
S125.00 de renta por mes, por persona ............... ........... ............................. .............. .._.It .................. ,_ ........-. ........... --.. ....... ................... .....-...........................-_...... .........,....._.......
,c..,.. .................. ......,..........,............. _,..___,............. Llamenos al (831) 455-J&&J o al (121) J17·2JCO
. para resenar su espaclo .
Guest workers find own houing, but work for a particular farmer? Will farmer escape liability?
Note 2.5 to 3 people per room in Salinas & Ventura
!!
AEWRs 2017: $12.57 in CA; <$11 in southeast & AZ-NM Highest: Canadian custom harvesters $13.79
FY 2017 Adverse Effect Wage Rates
$10.92 West �
Virginia�
Alaska �
$12.19 Delaware�
$13.01 Indiana�
$13.38 Oregon � $12.75
Wisconsin �
$13.79 Nebraska �
$12.19 Pennsylvania �
$12.38 New Hampshire �
$13.01 Illinois �
$13.12 Iowa�
$12.75 Minnesota �
$10.95 New Mexico �
$10.62 Alabama�
$12.38 Vermont �
$12.19 New Jersey �
$11.66�Wyoming �
$13.14 Hawaii�
$13.79 South Dakota �
$11.59 Oklahoma�
$11.66 �Montana �
$12.38 Maine �$13.79
North Dakota �
$12.19 Maryland �
$13.79 Kansas �
$13.38 Washington �
$11.00 Utah� $11.00
Colorado �
$13.01 Ohio �
$10.95 Arizona �
$11.00 Nevada�
$10.62 South Carolina �
$11.59 Texas�
$11.66�Idaho�
$10.38 Mississippi �
$10.92 Tennessee �
$11.12 Florida�
$12.57 California �
$10.38 Arkansas �
$12.38 New York �
$10.92 Kentucky �
$10.38 Louisiana �
$11.27 Virginia�
$10.62 Georgia �
$11.27 North Carolina �
$12.75 Michigan
State < $10.00 � $11.00 < State < $12.00 � State > $13.00 �
$13.12 Missouri �
$12.38 �Massachusetts
$12.38 �Rhode Island
$12.38 �Connecticut
�$12.00< State < $13.00 �$10.00 < State < $11.00
GUARD REGISTRATION 0 JOH OOE
5555 A Y STREET A Y TO CA S5555
G 5S5555 06/30/2000
O Additional Permit Required to carry Firearm
Business services: 1.5 million unauthorized in 10 million labor force-15%
Hospitality and hotels: 1.5 million in 12 million labor force, 12%
Construction: 1 million
unauthorized in 5 million labor force, 20%
Concentrated in residential
Agriculture: 1 million unauthorized among 2 million hired
U.S. agricultur al export s have histor ically exceeded Imports, leading to surplu s
Billion clollars 160
140
120
100
80
60
Souroe: USDA, Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States ta.
Export share of U.S. farm production , 2011-13
Cotton
Tree nuts
Rice
Wheat
Soybeans
Fresh fruits
Processed vegetables
Pork
0
I
I
I
25
I
50 Percent
75 100
U.S. agricultural imports , 2000- 15
Sb illion 120
100
80
60
40
20
I I I 0
2000 I I I
2003 I I I I I I
2006 2009 I I I I
2012 I I
2015
• Sugar and tropical products
• Horticultural products
• Livestock products
• Cotton , tobacco , and seeds
• Oilseeds and oilseed products
• Grains and feeds
Source : USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Department of Commerce , U.S. Census Bureau , Foreign Trade Database .
Imports Total US
$39.8 billion $20.2 billion $60 billion
--+ Estimated US Wine Sales Revenue In 2016 . ''"""" wron& ..,.,., , 2011. BWI .. . 2011
US trade surplus in ag, but FVH imports are rising
Summary 1 • Hired worker employment up as expansion offsets
mechanization. • Farm workers: aging & settled unauthorized
workers with US-born children; less flexibible • Employer responses
– Satisfy current workers to retain – Stretch with labor-stretching mechanical aids – Substitute: labor-saving mechanization (switch) – Supplement: H-2A workers; reduce recruitment,
housing, & AEWR requirements• New enforcement & easier guest workers?
Which 4 S gets investment? What variance in response by commodity and area?
Summary 2���� • Short-term responses: satisfy, stretch, and
supplement. What employer model for H-2A? – NC & WA: associations that move workers from farm to
farm – FL & CA: super FLCs move workers from farm to farm – Most H-2As: direct hire, but requires housing
• Medium-term responses: substitute, supplement, and imports – How fast do machine costs fall & performance improve?
What farm mgt changes? Is acreage growing? – Build housing for H-2A workers or change to end
housing requirement? Invest to assure workers whenneeded or assume floating workers available?
– Imports: US ag net export surplus, $140 bil X, $100 bil M, but imports of FVH commodities rising