Phil McKinney - A 20-year Outlook
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These are the slide used at a speech in Shanghai on May 9, 2007. The presentation lays out a vision for the future of technology (specifically for mobility) for 20 years. You may not agree with the vision. The objective is use this as a catalyst for conversations.
Transcript of Phil McKinney - A 20-year Outlook
6/21/2007 2
Rewind: 1987
6/21/2007 3
Freeze-frame: Today
6/21/2007 4
Fast-Forward: Tomorrow 2027
6/21/2007 5
What is going to change?
• Social Dynamics• Personal Entertainment• Intelligent Networks• Gadgets• Ubiquitous Content
6/21/2007 6
Social Dynamics
the physical and virtual worlds will blur[2015]
[2020]
[2025]
virtual collaborationGlobalization will drive the need for virtual collaboration (leverage the best expertise wherever it is)
Second Life communitiesVirtual environments will be highly usable, personalized, and preferred for interaction and community building for lifestyle and business value.
[2010] media experiences convergeMediascape-like experiences enable the enhancement of virtual entertainment overlays to physical world scenarios for gaming and interactive tourism
virtual communities gain legal statusVirtual communities will gain recognition as distinct entities separate from the physical world with its unique needs for rights, privacy and law.
6/21/2007 7
Personal Entertainment
media and entertainment with no boundaries
[2007]
[2015]
[2020]
[2025]
smart TV’sDigital TV’s are “always connected” and offer a multitude of movie, music, gaming, and interactive entertainment through new content providers.
smart houseIntelligent devices in the home will seamlessly interact with each other and share personalities
content anywhere and any deviceContent will be dynamic and accessible via any device or multitude of devices wherever the users have a desire.
entertainment at-willPersonal entertainment will be driven by desire with little or no consideration for time, location, context, or technology…it just happens when we want it.
6/21/2007 8
Intelligent Networks[2010]
[2015]
[2020]
[2025]
always connectedSeamless sessions through smart hand-off between overlapping network boundaries
federated networksThe Internet will be a concatenation of federated networks with seamless access and content across all network boundaries.
mesh networks everywhereAnypoint-to-anypoint networks will be commonplace providing peer-to-peer access to all content in cities, communities, homes, and BANs (Body Area Networks).
the pervasive networkAll static, nomadic, and mobile entities will be connected and able to interact in real-time. Interaction will be people-people, machine-machine, people-machine.
seamless always connected connectivity
6/21/2007 9
Gadgets[2010]
[2015]
[2020]
mobile broadbandHandheld and portable devices possess ubiquitous connectivity to cellular and broadband networks.
the new personal computingPeople’s new work+play lifestyles will incorporate personal computing devices for all aspects: health, finance, entertainment, business, communicating, recreation.
strong-specificWhile there may be a few multi-function (i.e., weak-general) devices, most will be purpose built strong-specific that will perform 1-2 functions in people’s lives.
[2025] cognitive devicesPeople will have numerous network-aware, behavior-aware devices in their lives with interface and interaction via natural speech and motor methods without keyboards or mice.
always personal in all ways
6/21/2007 10
Ubiquitous Content
liquid media
[2010]
[2015]
[2020]
programmed and online contentScheduled cable and broadcast programming is increasingly offered online and over mobile networks.
open networksWalled gardens and closed/controlled networks have migrated to open, QoS-aware, service-rich networks.
personalized advertisingAdvertising is desired due to personalized, contextual, and rich integration with main media and content.
[2025] on-demand contentOver-the-air broadcast content has been displaced largely for unicast, multi-cast, and peer-to-peer content with on-demand access. Scheduled programming has given way to location and persona context awareness.
MusicMusic
MoviesMovies
TVTV
PhotosPhotos
GamesGames
6/21/2007 11
Concerns and Issues• Pervasiveness of connectivity elevate privacy
concerns• Communications and information overload will
be the norm • Always-connected and always-on capabilities
will be advantageous. . . but so will control
6/21/2007 12
Contact for Phil McKinney:
Email: [email protected]
Blog: www.philmckinney.com
Podcast: www.killerinnovations.com
