PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Research Initial Proposal Gerard Ibarra January 21, 2005 Research...

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104

Research Initial Proposal

Gerard IbarraJanuary 21, 2005

Research Initial Proposal

Gerard IbarraJanuary 21, 2005

Update 2.0

Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical Infrastructure

Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical InfrastructureResource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies Resource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies


OutlineOutline

ObjectiveOverviewResearch ProcessFormulating the ModelBenefitsConclusion

ObjectiveOverviewResearch ProcessFormulating the ModelBenefitsConclusion


ObjectiveObjective

To develop a model based on SE methodologies and practices for assessing the critical infrastructure as a complex system-of-systems with respect to resource allocation for a Transportation Logistics Highway Vehicles (TLHV) terrorist attack

To develop a model based on SE methodologies and practices for assessing the critical infrastructure as a complex system-of-systems with respect to resource allocation for a Transportation Logistics Highway Vehicles (TLHV) terrorist attack

Should I narrow down to terrorist attack or keep withdisconnect?


ObjectiveObjective

To analyze performance, reliability, security, safety, risks, and impact of disruption due to terror attacks or natural events

To analyze performance, reliability, security, safety, risks, and impact of disruption due to terror attacks or natural events


SE Overview SE Overview


SE Definition SE Definition

Various Definitions ExistsState the problem; Investigate

alternatives; Model the system; Integrate; Launch the system; Assesses performance; and Re-evaluate (SIMILAR). The systems engineering process is not sequential. The functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner.1

Various Definitions ExistsState the problem; Investigate

alternatives; Model the system; Integrate; Launch the system; Assesses performance; and Re-evaluate (SIMILAR). The systems engineering process is not sequential. The functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner.1


Other SE Components Other SE Components

System-of-Systems InterdependenciesElements of a System2

ComponentsAttributesRelationships

System-of-Systems InterdependenciesElements of a System2

ComponentsAttributesRelationships


SE DescriptionSE Description

Top-down/Bottom-up

Life-cycle

Identification of System Requirements

TeamApproach


Critical Infrastructure (CI) Overview

Critical Infrastructure (CI) Overview


CI History CI History

President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection report called for a national effort to assure the security of the United States' increasingly vulnerable and interconnected infrastructures3

Lead to the Presidential Decision Directive 63 (PDD63)

President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection report called for a national effort to assure the security of the United States' increasingly vulnerable and interconnected infrastructures3

Lead to the Presidential Decision Directive 63 (PDD63)


Number of CIsNumber of CIs

There are 13 general CI defined by the Department of Homeland Security

There are 13 general CI defined by the Department of Homeland Security

1. Agriculture2. Banking and Finance3. Chem. Ind. & Haz Mat4. Defense Indus. Base5. Emergency Services6. Energy

7. Food8. Government9. Info. and Telecom.10.Postal and Shipping11.Public Health12.Transportation13.Water


Other CIs Other CIs

Others include:SPAWAR – 10 with subsetsInfraGard of North Texas – 9

CI could also be specific to areaPort of Houston

Others include:SPAWAR – 10 with subsetsInfraGard of North Texas – 9

CI could also be specific to areaPort of Houston


Common Property of CICommon Property of CI

All are complex collections of interacting components in which change often occurs as a result of learning process; that is, they are complex adaptive systems (CAS)4

All are complex collections of interacting components in which change often occurs as a result of learning process; that is, they are complex adaptive systems (CAS)4


Trans/Log Overview Trans/Log Overview


Importance of Trans/LogImportance of Trans/Log

“Transportation is one of the most important and increasingly complex infrastructure networks

of our modern society”5


Transportation DefinitionTransportation Definition

A facility consisting of the means and equipment necessary for the movement of passengers or goods6

A facility consisting of the means and equipment necessary for the movement of passengers or goods6


Logistics DefinitionLogistics Definition

That part of the supply chain process that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements7

That part of the supply chain process that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements7


Single Source InformationSingle Source InformationCustomer

FinancialCustoms

Air

Freight FwdMotorRail

Ocean

Mfg

Information

Product/Material

Single SourceInformation

ConsolidatorDe-consolidator


Trans/Log GDP Trans/Log GDP

Gross Domestic Product: 20038 Gross Domestic Product: 20038

8.5%

91.5%

Trans/Log All Other


Trans/Log ModalsTrans/Log Modals

Airports/AircraftHighways/VehiclesPipelinesRailroads/TrainsWaterways/Vessels

Airports/AircraftHighways/VehiclesPipelinesRailroads/TrainsWaterways/Vessels


Road Map to the Research ProcessRoad Map to the Research Process

PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104

State the Problem Develop CasePerform Risk

Analysis

Identify the Risk

Identify the Stakeholders

Categorize Risks Develop Model

Links

Results

Geograhical Interdependencies

Nodes

Algorithm / Simulation

In

Out


State the Problem Develop CasePerform Risk

Analysis

Identify the Risk

Identify the Stakeholders

Categorize Risks Develop Model

Links

Results

Geograhical Interdependencies

Nodes

Algorithm / Simulation

In

Out


State the ProblemState the Problem

Develop case for problem – research articles fromNewspapersMagazinesJournalsOther articles not elsewhere

classified (n.e.c.)

Develop case for problem – research articles fromNewspapersMagazinesJournalsOther articles not elsewhere

classified (n.e.c.)


Identify RisksIdentify Risks

National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Information Briefing on the Department of Defense (DOD) CI Protection, July 3, 2002

Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

Hazard and Operations Analysis (HAZOP)

Synthesis – Research, Investigate, and Interview

National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Information Briefing on the Department of Defense (DOD) CI Protection, July 3, 2002

Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

Hazard and Operations Analysis (HAZOP)

Synthesis – Research, Investigate, and Interview


Identify RisksIdentify Risks

Assess TLHV’s Risk9 Assess TLHV’s Risk9


Identify StakeholdersIdentify Stakeholders

Fuse Trans/Log Highways and Vehicles (TLHV) with the CI

Fuse Trans/Log Highways and Vehicles (TLHV) with the CI

Commuters

Distribution Centers

Utilities / P

ower Crews

Emergency Responders Airports

Water Ports

Bus and Rail Stations

DOD


Categorize RisksCategorize Risks

Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS)

Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)

Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)

Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS)

Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)

Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)


Formulating the ModelFormulating the Model


Formulate ModelFormulate Model

NodesLinksGeographical Interdependencies

NodesLinksGeographical Interdependencies


Functional AnalysisFunctional Analysis

Perform Functional AnalysisPerform Functional Analysis


Graphical RepresentationGraphical Representation

TINodes

Links

Geo. Inter.

i, j

RR

DTTR

i, j

DFW


Assume Steady State

Simulation Flow DiagramSimulation Flow DiagramV

aria

bles

Likelihood

Input Outpu

Type ofDisconnect

Time ofDay

(n)Day ofWeek

Algorithm/Simulation

EstimatedCost

RiskFactor


Adaptive ModelAdaptive Model

The likelihood of a disconnect changes with the state of the environment and time. Hence, the model requires minimal high-level inputs from the user in terms of the type and likelihood of disconnects that could occur. These inputs allow the model to become adaptive to the current environment and provide results that are more meaningful.

The likelihood of a disconnect changes with the state of the environment and time. Hence, the model requires minimal high-level inputs from the user in terms of the type and likelihood of disconnects that could occur. These inputs allow the model to become adaptive to the current environment and provide results that are more meaningful.


Model FunctionModel Function

Type of DisconnectTerror Explosion Chemical Bio/HazardAccident Chemical Multiple Fatality Single Fatality Multiple Severe Injuries Severe Injury Minor Injury(s) Fender BenderNatural Disaster Earthquake Flooding Hurricane Tornado Severe WeatherOther Special Events Construction School Closings

Time of Day/Day of WkRush Hour AM PMHolliday New Years Easter Memorial Day 4th July Labor Day Thanks Giving ChristmasOther Morning Lunch Afternoon Evening Late Night Early Morning Day of Wk

VariablesGeographical Interdependencies Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports

CouplingRelationship of Impact

Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports

sconstraint

bles varia..

ts

CostRiskMin


Elements of the ModelElements of the Model

Geographical Interdependencies: Those CI that are within proximity of each other

Temporal Range: The time of the incident

State of Operation: Peak conditions, repair or restoration

Coupling: The linearity and complexity of the interactions

Geographical Interdependencies: Those CI that are within proximity of each other

Temporal Range: The time of the incident

State of Operation: Peak conditions, repair or restoration

Coupling: The linearity and complexity of the interactions


Quantify and Rank RisksQuantify and Rank Risks

Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)

Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM)

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Fault Tree (FT)Event Tree (ET)

Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)

Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM)

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Fault Tree (FT)Event Tree (ET)

StochasticBayesian AnalysisMarkov ChainMonte Carlo Simulation


Estimate CostEstimate Cost

AccidentsNon fatal injuriesFatal

Highway ConstructionTime Delays

Goods to marketPersonal time

AccidentsNon fatal injuriesFatal

Highway ConstructionTime Delays

Goods to marketPersonal time

StochasticQueuing AnalysisReliability AnalysisMonte Carlo Simulation


Model OutputModel Output

Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect

Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node

Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect

Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node


Metrics and ValidationMetrics and Validation


MetricsMetrics

Risk mitigationDiverting traffic before disconnectStrategically locating emergency

responders for obviating potential disconnects

Risk mitigationDiverting traffic before disconnectStrategically locating emergency

responders for obviating potential disconnects


MetricsMetrics

Descriptive of what occurs:Before disconnect After disconnect

Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs

Quantify affects after disconnect occurs

Descriptive of what occurs:Before disconnect After disconnect

Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs

Quantify affects after disconnect occurs


Validate ModelValidate Model

Test model – thresholdReplicate model in Houston

Test model – thresholdReplicate model in Houston


BenefitsBenefits


BenefitsBenefits

Model for municipalities to use for resource allocation based on terrorist attacks on the Trans/Log CIReduce resource wasteIncrease efficienciesAlign emergency plan based on

severity

Model for municipalities to use for resource allocation based on terrorist attacks on the Trans/Log CIReduce resource wasteIncrease efficienciesAlign emergency plan based on

severity


BenefitsBenefits

Homeland Security Funding: Earmark funding to areas that pose greatest risk of a terrorist attack

Future Highway Designs: Compare new proposed highway design against model for minimizing risk and cost due to disconnects in system

Homeland Security Funding: Earmark funding to areas that pose greatest risk of a terrorist attack

Future Highway Designs: Compare new proposed highway design against model for minimizing risk and cost due to disconnects in system


ConclusionConclusion



Systems Engineering approach elevates the decision making process by considering the system versus an entity

CI is dynamic and intertwined with the system’s interdependenciesAffects citizens’ way of lifeImpacts companies way of doing

businessExponentially growing in complexity10

Systems Engineering approach elevates the decision making process by considering the system versus an entity

CI is dynamic and intertwined with the system’s interdependenciesAffects citizens’ way of lifeImpacts companies way of doing

businessExponentially growing in complexity10



Trans/Log accounts for almost 9% of the US GDPPivotal for US and world economyFosters commerce

Trans/Log accounts for almost 9% of the US GDPPivotal for US and world economyFosters commerce



SE

CriticalInfrastructures

Transportation/Logistics



Provide a systematic approach for understanding and quantifying the Trans/Log CI and its Interdependencies

Develop Trans/Log CI framework to model resource allocation in an event of a disconnect

Provide a systematic approach for understanding and quantifying the Trans/Log CI and its Interdependencies

Develop Trans/Log CI framework to model resource allocation in an event of a disconnect


FootnotesFootnotes

1. Inaugural issue, Systems Engineering, Journal of the International Council of Systems Engineering INCOSE, Seattle, WA (vol. 1, no. 1, July/September 1994).

2. Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 28.

3. The Whit House: Office of the Press Secretary, Fact Sheet, May 22, 1998. [Online]. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd-63.htm.

4. Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.13.

5. George Mason University, Systems Engineering Research and Operations.

1. Inaugural issue, Systems Engineering, Journal of the International Council of Systems Engineering INCOSE, Seattle, WA (vol. 1, no. 1, July/September 1994).

2. Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 28.

3. The Whit House: Office of the Press Secretary, Fact Sheet, May 22, 1998. [Online]. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd-63.htm.


5. George Mason University, Systems Engineering Research and Operations.


FootnotesFootnotes

6. Cognitive Science Laboratory, Princeton University.

7. The Michigan Roundtables (Council of Logistics Management)

8. Perry A. Trunick, How to Beat the High Cost of Shipping, Logistics Today, July, 2004.

9. NDIA Information Briefing. DoD Critical Infrastructure Protection, July 3, 2002.


6. Cognitive Science Laboratory, Princeton University.

7. The Michigan Roundtables (Council of Logistics Management)

8. Perry A. Trunick, How to Beat the High Cost of Shipping, Logistics Today, July, 2004.

9. NDIA Information Briefing. DoD Critical Infrastructure Protection, July 3, 2002.


PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Research Initial Proposal Gerard Ibarra January 21, 2005 Research...

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