Prof. D.Clouteau (MSSMat-ECP) - F.Lopez-Caballero (MSSMat-ECP) - Prof. R.Paolucci (DICA-Polimi)

Uncertainty Quantification of 3Dphysics-based models for seismic safety

evaluation of critical structures.

Filippo Gatti1,2

1Laboratoire MSSMatEcole Centrale Paris

2DICAPolitecnico di Milano

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Partners and Sponsor

SEISM Institute

SINAPS@ Project

Earthquake and Nuclear Facilities: Ensuring Safety andSustaining

KARISMA Project

KAshiwazaki-Kariwa Research Initiative for Seismic MarginAssessment

Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake

July, 16 2007

The M6.6 - Mj6.8 mainshock ofthe Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Okiearthquake occurred offshore fromthe cities of Kashiwazaki and

Kariwa, Japan, at 10:13 a.m.

local time on 16 July 2007, andwas followed by a sequence ofmore than 70 aftershocks [3].

Kariwa Village is home to theworld’s largest nuclear power

plant, with seven reactors and atotal output of 8.200 megawatts. Figure 1: Main shock epicenters located by

the USGS and JMA, and aftershock patternof the Niigata Earthquake [1].

Objectives

Leading target

Uncertainty Quantification(UQ) in 3D physics-basedearthquake ground shaking prediction for seismic safetyevaluation of critical structures.

Main Uncertainties

Seismic Source (fault geometry, slip distribution...)

3D velocity model

Site effects NL modelling (NL constitutive law, travel pathidentification...)

Main Features

Figure 2: USGS PGV Map (Google Earth) [1]

Site-Source distance

15-20 Km

Hypocenter depth

8-10 Km

Available Record Database

Pros

33 recording locations within the NP facility

Main-Shock and 6 After Shocks

K-Net + Kik-Net records (within 30km)

Down-Hole and structural records available

Cons

Spatial variability within the site

Low degree of confidence on 3D velocity model

folded structures (horizontal layered strata?)complex fault evolution (3 asperities)

Non-Linear Site Effects

Liquefaction effectsG reduction within the first 50m

Record ”quality” and ”exploitability”

Figure 3: VS time evolution according to inverse analysis(NIOM method)[2].

Perspectives

Key Points

1 Identification of non-linear site effects from inverseanalysis of records (evolution of soil mechanical properties)

2 Retrofitting input characteristics from signal processing(space-time correlation)

3 Exploitation of down-hole array signals for sub-surfacemodel calibration

4 Calibration of fault parameters and kinematic simulation

THANKS!

References I

R. Kayen, S.J. Brandenberg, B.D. Collins, S. Dickenson,S. Ashford, L. Johnson, Y. Kawamata, Y. Tanaka,H. Koumoto, N. Abrahamson, L. Cluff, and K. Tokimatsu.Geoengineering and Seismological Aspects of theNiigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of 16 July 2007.Earthquake Spectra, 25(4):777–802, 2009.

H. Mogi, S.M. Shrestha, H. Kawakami, and S. Okamura.Nonlinear Soil Behavior Observed at Vertical Array in theKashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant during the 2007Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,100(2):762–775, 2010.

References II

O.V. Pavlenko and K. Irikura.Nonlinear Soil Behavior at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NuclearPower Plant During the Niigata Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake(July, 16, 2007).Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169(10):1777–1800, 2012.