Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Sub-Saharan · PDF filePhase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in...

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Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Sub-Saharan Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa

First Meeting of the Partners for Cleaner Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles

United Nations HeadquartersNew York

14-15 November, 2002

Phase-Out of L eaded G asoline in Sub-Saharan A frica

• What has been the process?

• What has been the progress?

• Why is this important to IPIECA and Africa?

• How can we overcome the key challenges to phasing out lead and reducing sulfur?


Why don’t we want to sell Leaded Gasoline?

Why is this important to Africa?

Leaded Gasoline = Air Pollution

Futuregasoline

T he G asoline Q uality Pyramid

Unleaded gasoline

Tighter control of properties e.g.Euro-3 and Reformulated gasoline (RFG)

Current best available e.g.California RFG, Euro-4

Highly leaded fuels. Quality inconsistent with modern vehicles


IPIECA Strategy on Lead Phase-out Effort

• Develop Industry Consensus

• Partner with The World Bank on Sub-Saharan Africa

• Engage other Stakeholders

• Provide Technical Support


IPIECA MEMBERS ENCOURAGE GOVERNMENTS IN COUNTRIES STILL

USING LEADED GASOLINE TO DEVELOP LEAD PHASE-OUT ACTION PLANS

AND FINALLY MANDATE THE ELIMINATION OF LEAD AS AN ADDITIVE.

WE UNDERSTAND THAT EACH COUNTRY MUST SET THEIR OWN PRIORITIES

AND TIMETABLES ON THESE ISSUES. THEREFORE, WE INTEND TO

APPROACH LEAD PHASE-OUT CONSTRUCTIVELY BY WORKING WITH

GOVERNMENTS, CAR MANUFACTURERS AND OTHERS TO ADDRESS

THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND SUPPLY BARRIERS TO QUICK ACTION.

WE RECOGNIZE THAT AFFORDABLE ENERGY SUPPLIES ARE JUST ONE

OF MANY OTHER ISSUES CRITICAL TO THE HEALTH AND PUBLIC WELFARE

OF PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY IN COUNTRIES OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD.

IPIECA Position on Lead Phase-Out


W orld Bank C onference on Phase-O ut of L eaded G asoline in

Sub-Saharan A frica - (under WB’s C lean A ir Initiative for SSA )

•• June 26-28, 2001, Dakar, Senegal

• 150 Government, Industry, NGO Attendees

• 25 Countries represented

• USEPA, UNEP, IPIECA, NAAMSA, AECLP...

• Keynote by ExxonMobil VP Dr. Frank Sprow


Role of Government on Lead Phase-out:

• Set rules on lead content of gasoline• Allocate resources [often owners or part-owners of refineries]• Set time frames for solutions• Enforce the rules

Dr. Sprow’s Keynote at Dakar Conference


Role of Government on Lead Phase-out:

• Set rules on lead content of gasoline• Allocate resources [often owners or part-owners of refineries]• Set time frames for solutions• Enforce the rules

Dr. Sprow’s Keynote at Dakar Conference

Role of Industry on Lead Phase-out:

• Offer advise on HOW to achieve government’s phase-out goals• Provide refining and supply options• Show impact of fuel changes on vehicle population• Estimate impacts on local air quality


W orld Bank C onference on Phase-Out of L eaded G asoline inSub-Saharan A frica - (under WB’s C lean A ir Initiative for SSA )

•• June 26-28, 2001, Dakar, Senegal

• 150 Government, Industry, NGO Attendees

• 25 Countries represented

• IPIECA, USEPA, UNEP, WHO, AECLP...

• Keynote by ExxonMobil VP Dr. Frank Sprow

• “Declaration of Dakar” for 2005 Phase-Out

• 5 Sub-Regional Teams established to:

• Begin developing action plans

• Follow-up with future workshops


E xxonM obil E ditorial

on Dakar C onference

in

T he New Y ork T imes

T he W ashington Post

O ctober 25, 2001

Making clean fuels for our customers isExxonMobil's business. Over the years, the oilindustry has made major strides in meetinggrowing transportation needs with less and lessimpact on the environment. Years ago, automo-bile engines requiredtetraethyl lead in gasolineto reduce "knocking.” Inthe early 1970's, the UnitedStates began to mandatelower levels of lead in gas-oline. These regulationswere intended to reducethe levels of lead in the airand to support the use of catalytic converters inautomobiles. Catalytic converters are very effi-cient at reducing emissions from vehicle en-gines, but these complex devices can't tolerateeven small amounts of lead. Unleaded gasoline has been a success.Despite a 140 percent increase in total milesdriven since 1970, total lead emissions in theUnited States have fallen 98 percent. As a re-sult, our air is cleaner. Many other countries have followed, withmost of Europe and many Asia-Pacific andLatin American countries now exclusively usingunleaded motor gasoline. However, a numberof countries still use older automobiles andolder fuel specifications, including lead addi-tives. The oil industry and the World Bank haveinitiated a dialogue with governments to accel-erate and complete the worldwide transition tounleaded gasoline. Last June, the World Bank held a confer-ence in Dakar, Senegal, devoted to the issue oflead in gasoline in Africa. The conference, partof the World Bank's Clean Air Initiative, was at-

Taking the Lead Outtended by representatives of government, in-dustry and international nongovernmental or-ganizations. At the conference, officials from 25sub-Saharan African countries signed the"Declaration of Dakar" committing to the phase- out of leaded gasoline by 2005. Dr. Frank Sprow, ExxonMobil's Vice Pres- ident - Safety, Health and Environment, gave the opening address at the conference on behalf of the International Petroleum Industry EnvironmentalConservation Association (IPIECA). Pledging in-dustry support, Dr. Sprow said, "IPIECA wants to see leaded gasoline phased out in every country worldwide, and we stand ready to do our part to make that happen. This is an oppor-tunity to cooperatively take an important steptoward improving the quality of life for the citi-zens of African countries." This transition will require a partnership between government and industry. Govern-ments will need to review legally required fuel specifications and other regulations and man-age the implications for the many government-owned oil refineries in developing countries.Industry will need to make the investments re-quired to produce, transport and market un-leaded gasoline. Economic growth brings opportunities to enhance both mobility and a healthy environ-ment -- two key elements in our quality of life. People in many countries already enjoy the ad-vantages of unleaded gasoline. Working to-gether, governments and industry can extend the same benefits to everyone.

25 sub-Saharancountries commit tophasing lead out of

gasoline


SSA SUB-R E G IONS - C lusters

W est

N igeria & N eighbours

E ast

Southern

W est-C entral

Co te D ’ Ivoire

Nigeria

K enya

South A frica

G hana

DR Congo

Senegal

A ngola

Camer

oon

G abon

M adagascar

C A R

Chad

Niger

M auritania

M ali

B -Faso

L i beria

Sierra L eone

G uinea

Cong

o

N amibia

Bo tswana

Moz

ambi

que

Zimbabwe

Z ambia

Som

alia

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Sudan

M auritius

R eunion

SUB-R E G IONS

2


25 R efineries

DIST R IBUTION INFRASTRUCTURE IN SUB-SA H A R A NA F R IC A (SSA )

10,000 K m of product pipelines 400 Inland Terminals/D epots

55 Ocean/Tanker terminals 2 M il l ion K m Road N etwork 15,000 F uels tank-trucks

17,500 Service StationsV ehicle F leet Size - 18 M il l ion

9


T O T A L G A S O L INE C O NSUM PTION IN 2000 -150M B bls

9 M B bls - 6%

47 M B bls - 31%

10 M B bls - 7%

78 M B bls - 52%

6 M B bls - 4%

D E M A N D SPL IT

Co te D ’ Ivoire

Nigeria

K enya

South A frica

G hana

DR Congo

Senegal

A ngola

Camer

oon

G abon

M adagascar

C A R

Chad

Niger

M auritania

M ali

B -Faso

L i beria

Sierra L eone

G uinea

Cong

o

N amibia

Bo tswana

Moz

ambi

que

Zimbabwe

Z ambia

Som

alia

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Sudan

M auritius

R eunion

Total G asoline sales in SSA - 150 M il l ion B arrels

2000 M arket D ata

5


West Afr ica B u r k i n a F a s o , C o te d'Ivoire, G a m b ia , G h a n a , C o te d'Ivoire, G h a n a ,

G u inea , G u in e a -B issau, L iber ia , M a li, M a u rita n ia , S e n e g a l

S e n e g a l, S ierra Leone

N i g e r i a a n d N e i g h b o u r i n g B e n in , C h a d , N iger , N iger ia , To g o N iger ia

C o u n tries

West C e n tra l Afr ica C a m e r o o n , C o n g o (Brazzav i l l e ) C e n tra l Afr ica n C a m e r o o n , D R C o n g o ,

Repub l i c , Dem o c ra tic Repub l i c o f Congo , Equa to r i a l G a b o n

G u inea , G a b o n , S a o To m e and P r i n c i pe

S o u thern Af r i ca A n g o la , B o tsw a n a , C o m o ro s , L e s o t ho , Madaga s c a r , A n g o la , S o u th A f r i ca

M a u r itius , M o za m b ique , Nam ib i a , Sey che l l e s , Sou th

A f r i ca , Sw a zila n d , Z a m b ia , Zim b a b w e

E a s t Afric a Burund i , E r i t rea , E th iop ia , D jib o u t i , Kenya , M a la w i, Ke n y a

Rw a n d a , S o m a lia , S u d a n , Ta n z a n i a , U g a n d a

S U B -REG IO N S C O U N TRIE S KEY REFINING C ENTRES

K E Y R E F INING C E NT R E S: Sub-R egional C overage

L ocal R ef iner ies i n S u b - S a h a r a n A f r i c a p r o v i d e 7 6 % of G a soline dem a n d i n sub- reg ion and the dem a n dbalance is m et th r o u g h i m p o r t s of f in ish ed G a soline

7


R E F INING C E N T R E S IN SUB-SA H A R A N AFRIC A(SSA )

Oi l Demand in SSA :

G asoline C onsumption:

R efineries G asoline Production:

2000 M arket D ata in M B bls

C ote D ’ IvoireNig

eria

K enyaG hana

D R C ongo

Senegal

A ngola

G abon

500

150

114

Camer

oon

South A frica

L ocal R efineries

8

Refining Industry in SSA (W orld Bank Slide)

Scatter of very small to world scale refining• 15 refineries < 50 kBd• RSA and Nigeria represent 68% of total capacity• Performance worrisome• Sustained role of the public sector inhibits consolidation and investments

Refining configuration• Light ends upgrading (reforming, isom, alkyl) 16% of CDU capacity• Excl. RSA & Nigeria, light ends upgrading only 84 kBd• Low octane pool (primarily semi-regen reforming)• High penetration of diesel governs crude runs and configuration

Regional supply options• Short in octane• Growing dependence on imports


Technical Challenges to Lead Removal

• Make up lost Octane

• Prevent Valve Seat Recession (VSR)


G A SOLINE SUPPLYP A T T E R N S

• Inland demand met by local R efinery production

K E Y

Co te D ’ Ivoire

Nigeria

K enya

South A frica

G hana

DR Congo

Senegal

A ngola

Camer

oon

G abon

M adagascar

C A R

Chad

Niger

M auritania

M ali

B -Faso

L i beria

Sierra L eone

G uinea

Cong

o

N amibia

Bo tswana

Moz

ambi

que

Zimbabwe

Z ambia

Som

alia

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Sudan

M auritius

R eunion

• Inland demand met by local R efinery + imports

76% of G asoline D emand supplied by L ocal R efineries

2000 M arket D ata

4

• Inland demand fully met by offshore imports




• Importing Countries• Prime Candidates for Quick Phase-Out• Import Unleaded from World Markets

• Refining Countries - Study Range of Options• Change Refinery Operation• Invest in New Refinery Process Units • Import High Octane Components• Use Alternative Additives

• Countries Dependent on Local Refineries & Offshore Imports• Import Requirements Dependent on Local Refineries• Unleaded Imports may be Possible where Logistics permit




• Prevent Valve Seat Recession (VSR)


V E H IC L E P E R F O R M A N C EC A T E G O R IE S

• L imited number of old cars with soft valve seats

K E Y

Co te d’ Ivoire

Nigeria

K enya

South A frica

G hana

DR Congo

Senegal

A ngola

Camer

oon

G abon

M adagascar

C A R

Chad

Niger

M auritania

M ali

B -Faso

L i beria

Sierra L eone

G uinea

Cong

o

N amibia

Bo tswana

Moz

ambi

que

Zimbabwe

Z ambia

Som

alia

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Sudan

M auritius

R eunion

• L arge number of old vehicles with soft valve seats

Projected soft valve seats vehicle population -

15-20% of total fleet

M arket Information

15




• Prevent Valve Seat Recession (VSR)• Not a problem everywhere• Use Anti-VSR additives

• At Depots -- $0.002/liter• At Service Stations


Follow-up Conferences since Dakar 2001

• Abuja, Nigeria - Nov 15-16, 2001- Nigerian National Conference• Over 100 Representatives• Action Plan formally submitted to Government:

• Requires Lead-free Gasoline by 2004• Import only Unleaded• Unleaded already produced in 1 of 3 Refineries• Introduction of Vehicle Emission Standards and Testing

• Cotonou, Benin - April 10-11, 2002 - Nigeria & Neighbors• Over 100 Participants from Niberia, Togo, Niger, Benin• Sub-Regional Action Plan called for Lead-free by 2004• Country Plan developed for Benin• Togo and Niger need to develop Action Plans



• Dakar, Senegal - March 26-27 - West Africa Sub-Regional Conference• 70 Participants from Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkino Faso, Ghana• All 3 Refineries represented • Action Plans developed for each Country:

• Reinforced 2005 Phase-out Target• Refineries conducting Studies



• Nairobi, Kenya - June 5, 2002 - East Africa Sub-Regional Conference• Joint effort of IPIECA, UNEP, USEPA, World Bank• 91 Participants• Sub-Regional Action Plan:

• Asked each Government to declare their intentions on Phase-out• Each Country should designate a Group to work the details• Governments and IPIECA to report progress at end of 2003• Private sector and Kenya Government agreed to look into the refinery issue -- report due year-end

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