Phase 5 Watershed Model Riverine Water Quality Calibration Update
description
Transcript of Phase 5 Watershed Model Riverine Water Quality Calibration Update
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Phase 5 Watershed ModelRiverine Water Quality
Calibration Update
Modeling Subcommittee
Quarterly Review
4/4/2006
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Calibration of River Nutrients
Final TextOutput
River variableWDM
METWDM
ATDEPWDM
PSWDM
River Input File Generator
5
6
4
ProcessParameter
FilesModel Structure
Files
OptimizationRoutine
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Two Calibration Strategies
• PEST– Complex– Long run times– Has been used successfully with HSPF in other
applications
• Rule-Based Optimization– Complex– Runs quickly– Similar to successful flow and temperature
calibrations in phase 5
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PEST
Final TextOutput
River variableWDM
METWDM
ATDEPWDM
PSWDM
River Input File Generator
5
6
4
ProcessParameter
Files • Determine the sensitivity of each parameter to the agreement of simulated and observed
• Determine the quickest route to the best simulation
• Take a large step in that direction
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PEST Status
• Runs
• Calculates matrix of sensitivities and updates parameters
• Won’t be useful globally within the month– Angelica on leave– Would have to take all CBP modeling
computer resources starting now
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Uncalibrated
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Modification by PEST
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Final TextOutput
River variableWDM
METWDM
ATDEPWDM
PSWDM
River Input File Generator
5
6
4
ProcessParameter
Files • Assume the sensitivity of each parameter to the agreement of simulated and observed
• Determine the quickest route to the best simulation
• Take a small step in that direction
Rule-Based Optimization
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Rule-Based River Calibration Method
• Consistent with recommendations of STAC review team
• Based on matching observed and simulated CFDs for paired data
10-1
100
101
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
TOTAL N, IN MG/L
CU
MU
LAT
IVE
DIS
TR
IBU
TIO
N
EMPIRICAL CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FOR TOTN >> scen: WQT1 >> seg: RU5-6030-0001 >> name: RAPPAHANNOCK R
h = 1p = 7.6549e-055k = 0.53089
SimulatedObserved
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Turn up denitrification
Settle more phytoplankton
Settle more phytoplankton
Settle less Refractory
Don’t Change ammonia scour and release
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Final TextOutput
River variableWDM
METWDM
ATDEPWDM
PSWDM
River Input File Generator
5
6
4
ProcessParameter
Files • Currently working on runs that calculate normal sensitivity ranges for use in this process
• Older sensitivities were calculated with poor Edge-of-Field and gave mixed results
Rule-Based Optimization
Status
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Uncalibrated
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Calibrated
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Phase 4.3
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Status of River Calibration
• Calibration method improves simulation
• Results in the ballpark of phase 4
• Need revised rules to complete calibration
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Extension to 8/2005Data Sources
• Rain, Temperature, PET– Jeff Raffensperger
• Solar Radiation, Cloud Cover, Dewpoint, Wind Speed– Ping Wang
• Atmospheric Deposition– Extended model of Grimm/Lynch
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Extension to 8/2005Data Sources
• Point Sources– Ning Zhou
• Diversions– Extended work from USGS
• Land Use– Extrapolated from 2002
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Susquehanna
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Susquehanna
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Potomac
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Potomac
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James
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James
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Rappahannock
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Rappahannock
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Random Small Watershed
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Random Small Watershed
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1985-1999 efficiency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50le
ss th
an -1
-0.8
to -0
.75
-0.5
5 to
-0.5
-0.3
to -0
.25
-0.0
5 to
0
0.2
to 0
.25
0.45
to 0
.5
0.7
to 0
.75
0.95
to 1
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2000-2002 efficiency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50le
ss th
an -1
-0.8
to -0
.75
-0.5
5 to
-0.5
-0.3
to -0
.25
-0.0
5 to
0
0.2
to 0
.25
0.45
to 0
.5
0.7
to 0
.75
0.95
to 1
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Extension to 2005
• Simulation runs through WY 2005
• Simulation in 2000-2002 not as good as 1985-1999
• 2000-2002 are drought years, so check through 2005 and re-evaluate