PETSEC ENERGY An Exploration and Production Company USA...
Transcript of PETSEC ENERGY An Exploration and Production Company USA...
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PETSEC ENERGY An Exploration and Production Company
USA and China
The Good Oil ConferencePerth
4-5 September, 2007
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The information presented herein contains predictions, estimates and other forward looking statements that are subject to risk factors that are associated with the oil and gas business. Although the company believes that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its goals will be achieved. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include the timing and extent of changes in commodity
prices for oil and gas, the need to develop and replace reserves, environmental risks, drilling and operating risks, risks related
to
exploration and development, uncertainties about the estimates of reserves, competition, government regulation and the ability of the company to meet its stated business goals.
All references to dollars in this presentation are to US currency, unless otherwise stated.
FORWARD STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
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Petsec Energy A growth exploration & production company
•
Operations in the Gulf Coast & Gulf of Mexico, USA & Beibu Gulf China
•
USA
-
Current production of 18 Mmcfe/d
-
Petsec estimated 2P reserves of 33 Bcfe (June 2007)
-
Prospect inventory of 290 Bcf of gas & 30 MMbbl of oil
•
China
-
Petsec estimated 2P reserves of 3.6-4.6 MMbbl of oil
-
Prospect inventory of 5-8 MMbbl of oil
•
Market capitalisation of A$203 million (@ $1.32/share 30/08/07)
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Areas of
Operations
USAOperations
Office
China
Sydney Head Office
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USA –
Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast
•
53 Offshore Leases -
18 Held by production
•
2 Onshore Projects -
Moonshine, Terrebonne Parish
Terrebone Parish
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Gulf of Mexico –
Vast Infrastructure
• High oil & gas prices - ready market for discoveries• Highly productive area - leases readily available• Extensive Infrastructure: one land owner - Regulator, 1,141 oil & gas fields,
14,000 miles pipeline• Majors moving to deep water leaving opportunities for proven shelf acreage
e.g. W&T Acquisition of KERR-McGEE SHELF 150 MMCFe/D & 330 BCFeMMS ESTIMATE GOM SHELFRemaining Proved Reserves 4,870 MMBO & 21.5 TCF 777 MMBO & 15.4 TCFUnproved Reserves 3,361 MMBO & 9.0 TCF 201 MMBO & 3.1 TCF
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Gulf of Mexico -
Lease Turnover
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Current US Gas Prices
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
31-Jan-04
31-Apr-04
30-Jul-04
29-Oct-04
07-Feb-05
15-May-05
15-Aug-05
11-Nov-05
23-Feb-06
5-Dec-06
4-Apr-07
24-Aug-07
US$/Mcf
12mth strip, 3 year average $8.25
•
Petsec av. price received 1st Half 07:
US$8.31/Mcfe•
Nymex:•
Spot Price -
seasonal low period: US$5.68/Mcf (at 30 Aug 07)•
12 month forward strip gas price: US$7.41/Mcf (at 30 Aug 07)•
24 month forward strip gas price: US$7.80/Mcf
(at 30 Aug 07)
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Natural Gas Production, Consumption,and Imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
(trill
ion
cubi
c fe
et) 16%
21%Net ImportsConsumption
ProductionNatural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030
(trillion cubic feet)
3.0
0.60.9
4.5
01234567
Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas
20052030
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007
20.5 Tcf
26.1 Tcf
History Projections
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2007 Production
•
Estimated 2007 Production of 7-7.5 Bcfe
•
Estimated 2007 operating cashflow of approximately US$40m*
•
Production fields -
Vermilion 258
-
Main Pass 18
-
Main Pass 19
-
Mobile Bay (from 4th
quarter)(*Assumes 2006 operating margin of US$5.50/Mcfe)
Vermilion 258 Main Pass 19 Mobile Bay 952A
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Mobile Bay 952A Platform
•
May 2007 acquisition:–
Mobile Bay 952A platform & pipelines
–
Mobile Bay 955 lease, pipelines & 1 producing well
–
Mobile Bay 953 lease & 2 producing wells
–
Net remaining reserves of 1.2 Bcfe
•
Host facility for production of discoveries at Mobile Bay 993, 994, 950, 951 & Viosca Knoll 26 -
net capital savings of
$2.0M
•
Consideration is assumption of abandonment liabilities -
net cost of $1.8M
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Mobile Bay 993, 994, 950 & 951
4”
6”
6”
6”
MO 953-1 MO 953-3
MO 950-1Single Well
IP Rate 5 MMCFD
MO 993-1Single Well
IP Rate 6 MMCFD
MO 994 A2 Wells
MO994-2IP Rate 3 MMCFD
VK26-1IP Rate 3 MMCFD
MO 951-1Single Well
IP Rate 4.2 MMCFDMO 952 A
Host Platform40 MMCFD Capacity
MO 953-3Rate 5 MMCFD
Remote WellsIP Rate 21.2 MMCFD Total
6” Sales LineIP Sales Rate 26.2 MMCFD
Petsec Energy Petsec Energy
Petsec EnergyPetsec Energy
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Mobile Bay 873
6”
MO 829Single Well
IP Rate 9 MMCFD
Petsec Energy
Subsea Tie In To DIGP Sales Line
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Petsec -
Focus Gulf of Mexico Joint Venture
•
Exploration partnership targeting OCS lease sales with complimentary strengths
–
Petsec’s offshore operating expertise
–
Focus’s dedicated full-time prospect generation
–
Continued participation in 2007 and 2008
•
50% interest in 33 OCS lease blocks acquired mid-2006
–
Continually being high graded
–
No mandatory commitment to drill
–
3D seismic in house
•
7 wells drilled to date
–
6 completed, 1 dry hole–
16.2 Bcfe net reserves, F & D costs of $2.13/Mcfe
•
29 undrilled prospects
–
3
to 4 year drilling inventory–
Risked target reserves of 165 Bcfe, projected F & D costs of $2.00/Mcfe
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15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
MM
cfe/
day
Vermilion 258 MP 19/18 Mobile China Onshore Focus Gas Focus Oil
Petsec -
Potential Production Profile Existing Reserves + Risked US Prospects
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Gulf Coast -
Moonshine Exploration
•
West bank of Mississippi River,
50 miles west of New Orleans
•
94 square mile area, only 25% cover with 2D seismic, no previous 3D seismic
•
Known productive area
-
340 Bcfe gas, 7.3 MMbbl oil
•
3D seismic programme completed in August 2005
•
Drilling commenced April 2007
36 - 37.5% NRI Operator
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Moonshine Drilling
•
Bowie Lumber #1 well encountered tight gas and not completed
•
Rig released and seismic to be reprocessed•
Drilling potentially to resume in 4th
Quarter of 2007
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Moonshine –
Stearman/Dickel/Mooney
•
Drilling to start 4th
Quarter 2007?
•
Test target 5-6 Bcfe net
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Gulf Coast -
Terrebonne Parish
•
Acquisition of 20% interest & participation in 3 well program -
Terrebonne Parish Louisiana
•
First well CL&F #28-1 -
Plugged and abandoned on August 29, 2007
•
Two remaining wells Triple Play & Greywolf to test:
►
Targeted gross reserves -
52.7 Bcfe & 1.6 MMbbl
►
Net reserve target -
7.9 Bcfe net to Petsec
•
Risk capital -
US$ 5.8m -
3 wells
•
Total risk capital plus development for 3 wells -
US$ 7.5m
•
Finding & Development costs < $1.00/Mcfe
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Terrebonne Parish –Hollywood AVO Prospects
A
A’
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LAGCOE –
OCTOBER 23–25, 2007
•
Louisiana Gulf Coast Oil Exposition –
Exhibits and technical sessions
•
Second largest oil and gas industry exposition in U.S.•
Over 330 exhibiting companies displaying state of the art technology for onshore and offshore drilling, exploration, production and environmental protection
•
Held in Lafayette, Louisiana -
Free admission with over 16,000 attendees from all over the world
•
Opportunity to learn about the U. S. oil and gas industry, visit with Petsec in the U.S., and go offshore in the Gulf of Mexico
•
Brochures are available at the Petsec booth
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China –
Beibu Gulf Block 22/12
• Six oil field discoveries
OIP of 300-400 MMbbl
• Recoverable oil 32.5-65 MMbbl
Petsec net 4-8 MMbbl
• Development
6.12/6.12 South
19-27 MMbbl oilPetsec net 2.3-3.3 MMbbl
• Exploration 4-6 wells test 40-60
MMbbl (5-7MMbbl net to
Petsec) Nov/Dec 2007 25% working interest (12.25% NRI, if CNOOC backs in for 51%)
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6.12 South West Prospect
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China 6-12 South Oil Discovery
•
320 feet net hydrocarbon pay, including 270 feet net oil
•
Updip side-track -
cores
•
Downdip side-track -
downdip potential
•
Oil extends downdip beyond structural closure
•
Appraisal flow-test achieved 5,750 boe/day
•
Estimated reserves in the 6.12/6.12.S fields Gross: 19-27 MMbbl Net: 2.3-3.3 MMbbl
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China 6.12/6.12 South Oil Development
Development Options•
WHPP -
FSO
•
WHP -
FPSO
•
Production capacity 25,000 -
30,000 bopd
•
Estimated capex US$100 -
120 million gross
•
Capacity to tie 12.8W/E & 12.2/12.3 into 6.12S facility
Development Timing•
Feasibility Study 1st
Quarter 2007•
Overall Development Plan 4th
Quarter 2007•
Final Investment Decision 4th
Quarter 2007•
Development commencing 1st
Half 2008•
Production 1st
Half 2009
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Consistent Growth of Reserves 2002 -
2006
•
US 22 successes from 26
drilled -
85% success
•
China 3 (+2 sidetracks)
successes from 5 wells drilled -
60% success
•
Consistent Reserves Growth –
CAGR 38%
•
Net additions 85 Bcfe
Wells Drilled/Successful
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Successful Unsuccessful
Number of Wells
59.7 Bcfe
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Financial Performance 2004 -
2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004 2005 2006 2007 1H
ProductionBcfe
27.2
0
15
30
45
60
75
2004 2005 2006 2007 1H
Net RevenueUS$ Million
18.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 1H
EBITDAXUS$ Million
3 yr CAGR 22%
3 yr CAGR 33%
3 yr CAGR 41%
3.3
12 month estimate3 year Compound Average Growth Rate
• Production 22%
• Revenue 33%
• EBITDAX 41%
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Operating Margins 2002 –
2006
0
2
4
6
2003 2004 2005 2006
EBITDAX (Cash Operating Margin)US$/Mcfe
0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3
2003 2004 2005 2006
Finding & Development Costs(3yr average - 2P Reserves)US$/Mcfe
Underlying Earnings
010203040
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US$/Mcfe
• Strong Operating Margins
• Competitive Finding and Development Costs
• Strong Underlying Earnings
$5.54
$2.52
$3.02
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3 Year F&D Cost ($/Mcfe)
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
$10.00
2006 LOE and G&A ($/Mcfe)
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
2006 Gross Margin %
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Source: Enercom PSA F&D cost excludes exploration costs in China & is based on 1P reserves for 3 yrs to December 2006.
Gulf of Mexico peers include ATP Oil & Gas, Bois’d Arc Energy, Energy Partners, McMoran Energy, Petroquest, Stone Energy and W&T Offshore.
PSA 77%
PSA$4.20
PSA$1.68
Performance relative to US Peers
• Low Lease Operating Expense's and Geological, Geophysical & Administration $1.68/Mcfe
• Competitive Finding & Development Costs $4.20/Mcfe (SEC 1P) US assets $2.52/Mcfe (SPE 2P) US + China
• High Gross Margins 77%
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Market Capitalisation
A$ 203 million Share Price
A$1.32 (30/08/07)
M ay-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 M ay-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 M ay-07 Aug-07
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
A$
Main Pass 19 #1success
Main Pass 19 #2&3wells success
1st Half Production
HurricanesKatrina & Rita
Vermilionproduction resumes
6.12 South Oil Discovery
Main Pass 19commences
Main Pass 19 G-7,G-4, G-5 success
Main Pass 18 G-6success
Vermilion 257 Dry Hole
Placement 15 million shares @ $2
Mobile Bay6 Successes
Placement 11.5 million shares @ $2.40
ASX Symbol: PSAOTC Symbol: PSJEY.PK1 ADR: 5 Ordinary Shares
Issued shares: 154,059,341 Options unlisted: 6.1 million
52 week High $2.74 Low $1.11
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Value relative to Australian Peers
•
Petsec Enterprise Value/Reserves multiple trading at 44% discount to peer average reflecting effective oil/gas prices received.
0
15
30
45
60
PSA AED BPT AZA ROC TAP ARQ AWE NXS
A$/BOE
EV/ Reserves MultiplePrice Equivalent Basis
Source: Wilson HTM ( based on market capitalisation at 28 August 2007, cash & debt implicit in EV estimates at 30 June 2007. 2P reserves per company data , generally as of 31 Dec 2006 or 30 June 2007}
Average A$36/boe
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Broker Valuations
Current Share Price $1.32 (30/08/07)
Broker Valuations:
•
Austock -
BUY
core valuation $1.80-$2.36,
high case $2.88 (Jul 07)
•
BBY -
BUY valuation $3.04 per share
(May 07)
•
Tolhurst -
BUY valuation $2.90 per share
(May07)
•
Patersons -
BUY valuation $2.37 per share
(Mar 07)
•
Opportunity to buy at deep discount to valuation
Share Price vs Broker Values
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$1.32
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Exploration and Development July -
December 2007
USA
(Bcfe)
Mobile Bay Fields
Production
6 15Gulf of Mexico
Exploration
1 3-5Moonshine Project
Exploration
1-2?
3-5Hollywood Project
Exploration
2 5-10
China
(MMbbl)
6-12 / 6-12 South
FID/Development
1
2.3-3.36-12 / 6-12 South
Exploration
4-6
5-7
Wells
Net Potential Reserves 2007 2008
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
FEASIBILITY / FID
DRILLING
DRILLING
DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENTDRILLING
PRODUCTION
DRILLING PRODUCTION
DRILLING
Key value drivers in the next 3-6 months:
• China 6.12 South Development decision Drilling 4-6 wells to test 5-7 Mmbbl net, Nov/Dec 2007
• US Mobile Bay onstream Sept/Oct 2007 (10+ Mmcf/d production net to PSA) Drilling 3-5 wells to test 8-20 Bcfe net
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Conclusion
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Experienced management team with successful track record
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Consistent growth in reserves/production/cashflow
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High profit margin reserves
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Strong cash flow, zero debt
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Large prospect inventory provides basis for continuing growth in the USA & China
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Significant near term value creation in both the U.S. and China
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Opportunity to buy Petsec Energy shares at current deep discount to valuation