Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was...

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A NRSRO Rating* Page 1 of 16 *HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Twitter: @HRRATINGS Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise HR BBB+ (G) July 24, 2020 Rating Pemex Notes HR BBB+ (G) Outlook Negative Contacts José Luis Cano Executive Director Corporates / ABS [email protected] Luis Miranda Sr. Executive Director Corporates/ABS [email protected] Hienz Cederborg Corporates Manager [email protected] Elizabeth Martinez Corporates Analyst [email protected] HR Ratings assigned in global scale the ratings of HR BBB+ (G) with Negative Outlook for 23 issues of Pemex The assignment of the ratings and outlooks are based on Pemex rating in global scale of HR BBB+ (G) with Negative Outlook. Pemex credit rating is founded on the de facto sovereign status of its debt, due to the support received from the federal government through actions and capital contributions, and due to the relevance of the State-owned Productive Enterprise (SPE) as a major generator of revenue for the country. The current Sovereign credit rating for Mexico is HR BBB+ (G) with Negative Outlook, following its latest rating action on April 1st, 2020, which was downgraded due to the observed deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals for 2019, below our expectations, coupled with the projected deterioration of Pemexs financials because of the decline of international crude oil prices, lower tax revenues and expected global and local economic recessions due to COVID-19. The federal government has supported Pemex with capital injections totaling P$25.0 thousands of millions (mm) and a monetization of promissory notes for labor liabilities totaling P$35.0mm in 2019. Additionally, last September the SHCP (Department of the Federal Treasury) made a capital contribution of US$5.0mm (approximately P$96.0mm), which Pemex used to pay down its debt denominated in dollars maturing between 2020 and 2023, also the tax benefit in the payment of fees on oil production was extended. In April, an additional extraordinary fiscal stimulus of P$65.0mm was granted to Pemex for the 2020 year. As a result of these supports, Pemex’s debt, without considering the exchange rate fluctuation impact, has remained at similar levels than last year, even with the low production of crude and financial results. The rated bonds were already issued in the market, however, HR Ratings hasn´t rated them.

Transcript of Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was...

Page 1: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 1 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

July 24, 2020

Rating Pemex Notes HR BBB+ (G) Outlook Negative

Contacts José Luis Cano Executive Director Corporates / ABS [email protected] Luis Miranda Sr. Executive Director Corporates/ABS [email protected] Hienz Cederborg Corporates Manager [email protected] Elizabeth Martinez Corporates Analyst [email protected]

HR Ratings assigned in global scale the ratings of HR BBB+ (G) with Negative Outlook for 23 issues of Pemex

The assignment of the ratings and outlooks are based on Pemex rating in global scale of HR BBB+ (G) with Negative Outlook. Pemex credit rating is founded on the de facto sovereign status of its debt, due to the support received from the federal government through actions and capital contributions, and due to the relevance of the State-owned Productive Enterprise (SPE) as a major generator of revenue for the country. The current Sovereign credit rating for Mexico is HR BBB+ (G) with Negative Outlook, following its latest rating action on April 1st, 2020, which was downgraded due to the observed deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals for 2019, below our expectations, coupled with the projected deterioration of Pemex’s financials because of the decline of international crude oil prices, lower tax revenues and expected global and local economic recessions due to COVID-19. The federal government has supported Pemex with capital injections totaling P$25.0 thousands of millions (mm) and a monetization of promissory notes for labor liabilities totaling P$35.0mm in 2019. Additionally, last September the SHCP (Department of the Federal Treasury) made a capital contribution of US$5.0mm (approximately P$96.0mm), which Pemex used to pay down its debt denominated in dollars maturing between 2020 and 2023, also the tax benefit in the payment of fees on oil production was extended. In April, an additional extraordinary fiscal stimulus of P$65.0mm was granted to Pemex for the 2020 year. As a result of these supports, Pemex’s debt, without considering the exchange rate fluctuation impact, has remained at similar levels than last year, even with the low production of crude and financial results. The rated bonds were already issued in the market, however, HR Ratings hasn´t rated them.

Page 2: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 2 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Main Factors Considered The credit ratings of the bonds are based on Pemex ratings, which was reviewed on April 1, 2020. Despite Pemex rating is founded on the de facto sovereign status that its debt has, HR Ratings conducted an analysis of the results reported by the State-owned Productive Enterprise and the expected scenarios for the periods projected, from 2020 to 2024, using base and stressed scenarios. A comparative among the principal assumptions and expected results under both scenarios follows.

Historical Performance vs. Forecasting Liquidity and capital injections. Due to the supports received from the federal

government (capital injections totaling P$25.0mm and US$5.0mm, plus the monetization of promissory notes for labor liabilities totaling P$35.0mm), in the LTM1 at 1Q20, Pemex maintained its debt, in dollar terms, at -1.6% compared with previous year, and 19.4% in pesos terms as a result of the peso devaluation against the dollar which increased from 19.4 to 23.5 peso per dollar between 1Q19 and 1Q20. In the 1Q20, Pemex paid and exchanged debt which matured in a short and medium terms reducing pressure on its liquidity and maintaining a debt structure aligned with its business model, with 89.5% in long-term (vs. 86.4% at 1Q19).

Stability in the generation of Adjusted Cash Flow. The AFCF generated by Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our principal metrics reflected an improvement with a DSCR of 0.9x and Net Debt to AFCF of 6.9 years (vs. 0.5x and 14.4 years estimated in the base scenario). This is primarily explained by a reduced tax burden and lower capital requirements, vendors and inventories, partially offset by a drop in the Adjusted EBITDA.

Reduced Adjusted EBITDA2. The Adjusted EBITDA in the LTM at 1Q20 fell 58.8% and 2.2%, versus the previous year and base scenario, due to a contraction of exports and domestic sales, as a consequence of lower crude production, reduced volumes sold because of the presence of new competitors, temporary effects of the COVID-19 quarantine which restricted consumers mobility diminishing the fuel consumption, lower prices of the Mexican crude oil basket and higher maintenance

1 LTM = last twelve months. 2 Adjusted EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization net of pensions and impairment to properties.

Page 3: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 3 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

costs. These negative impacts were partially compensated by a lower tax burden, reduced costs of refined imports for resale due to lower international oil prices, stabilization of the crude process in the SNR3 and lower demand of fuels as a consequence of the effects of the COVID-19 quarantine.

Lower production of hydrocarbons and exports. As a result of the natural decline

of mature fields and the presence of fractional flow of water and oil-water contact at some shallow water fields, the volume of crude production, excluding condensates and partners, for LTM at 1Q20 was 3.9% and 0.3% lower than prior year and our base scenario (1,700Mbd vs. 1,768Mbd in LTM at 1Q19 and 1,706Mbd assumed in the base scenario), negatively impacting the volume of exports, which was 7.9% lower than prior year (1,089Mbd in LTM at 1Q20 vs. 1,183Mbd in LTM at 1Q19).

Expectations for Future Periods The Federal Government authorized capital contributions to Pemex for a total of P$ 46.3mm, which the SPE reports having already received between January and July. Likewise, Congress authorized the decrease of the Profit-sharing duty rate from 65% to 58%. Because of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Government published a decree in April granting a creditable tax benefit to the payment of the Profit-sharing duty for a maximum of P$65.0mm. These supports are designed to increase the liquidity of the State-owned Productive Enterprise by providing additional resources to make the investments necessary to increase their levels of reserves, their crude oil production and refining capacity in the short/medium term. It is important to note that, in part, the current rating and outlook may be revised in the short term, depending, among other factors, on the ability of Pemex to maintain its production and increase it in the medium/long term and the impact that this have on the Sovereign Debt of Mexico.

Continued supports from the federal government. Our rating assumes the government will continue supporting the company through injections of capital and policies, like the reduced tax burden, through changes to the tax structure, actions that would contribute to improving the financial and operating results of Pemex. To date, the federal government has expressed its intention to continue funding the requirements of the State-owned Productive Enterprise through injections of capital in 2020, 2021 and 2022 totaling P$141.0mm, coupled with an additional temporary fiscal benefit of P$65.0mm in 2020.

Crude production and replenishment of reserves. The principal element that supports the strategy of the current administration is the reversal of the downward trend in crude production, therefore our estimates consider a gradual growth in the per day production levels, taking into account the investments observed and the work Pemex has done to develop new fields, however we believe the pressure to replenish reserves will remain strong.

Price estimates. The Mexican crude oil basket price has experienced a downward trend, with average prices of US$51.7 per barrel in LTM at 1Q20 and US$24.0 per barrel in 1Q20. Although the prices have showed a recovery trend reaching US$37.3 per barrel in July of 2020, HR Ratings estimates that the prices would be impacted by a sharp drop in demand due to weak global economic indicators and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, added to the increased crude oil production in the United States. As a result, our estimates consider that the per barrel price for Mexican crude oil basket would be around US$32.0 in 2020, maintaining an average below US$48.0 per barrel in the coming years.

3 National Oil Refining System (SNR, due to its Spanish acronym)

Page 4: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 4 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Debt levels. Taking into account the observed production levels, the Mexican crude oil basket prices and the expected economic slowdown, negatively impacting the domestic demand for refined products, we estimate that the State-owned Productive Enterprise may not achieve its short term goal of not increasing its net debt in 2020 and 2021, even with the federal support proposed for Pemex.

National Oil Refining System. The processing of crude in the National Oil Refining System continues to experience 3.0% lower levels than the previous year and a level of usage of the primary capacity of 33.0% (vs.34.1% in 1Q19), mainly as result of the maintenance programs implemented since the 4Q19. Pemex has reported that it will seek to reactivate its six refineries to full capacity in a short time. However, this carries the risk that the refining margin will not improve if Pemex is unable to reduce the unscheduled stoppages, increase its refinery usage rates and upgrade their facilities to produce more profitable refined products.

Additional factors considered

2019-2023 Business Plan. Pemex presented its business plan in July 2019, containing important changes in terms of our analysis for the previous year with higher levels of direct investment, by Pemex and the federal government, a reduced tax burden, greater investment in the production of refined products to reduce dependence on imports, and the participation of private investment through service contracts. The most relevant point in the plan is to revert the downward trend in crude production to reach 2.7MMbd in 2024. As a reference, the observed crude oil production was 1.7MMbd in LTM at 1Q20. Given the negative impacts that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the oil industry, it is probable that the objectives of the Business Plan will be reviewed in a near future.

Factors that could affect the rating Sovereign Debt. Any change, positive or negative, to the sovereign rating for

Mexico, and its outlook, would be reflected directly in the global rating for Pemex, as HR Ratings considers the Pemex debt to have a de facto guarantee from the federal government.

Page 5: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 5 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Results: Observed vs. Forecasted Pemex credit ratings is based on the sovereign status de facto of its debt, however, HR Ratings analyzes Pemex performance through financial projections under a base scenario and a stressed scenario. The scenarios presented in the table that follows are based on the strategies and Business Plan that the entity defined last year, covering the period projected from 1Q20 to 4Q24. A comparative is offered following between the results observed and projected for the last 12 months at 1Q20.

The financial results of Pemex continue to show a marked decline in operations. However, the reduced tax burden from the Federal Government, the working capital managed finance through vendors and debt refinance for long term ( 89.5% debt long term) has allowed Pemex to maintain relative stability in terms of the previous year and our scenarios, with a debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 0.9x in the last 12 months at 1Q20, based on our calculation of the Adjusted Cash Flow, and also a Net Debt to AFCF of 6.9 years (vs. 1.4X in LTM at 1Q19 and 0.5X in base scenario). Without the support provided by the Federal Government through lower tax payments, Pemex's liquidity would continue to be pressured, with an operating flow before taxes 45.5% lower than the previous year and 11.0% below the base scenario when reporting a flow from operation activities of P$259.1mm in LTM at 1Q20 (vs. P$475.4mm LTM at 1Q19 and P$291.2mm in the base scenario). A lower generation of operating flow before taxes has been the result of a drop in EBITDA, mainly motivated by a strong tax burden and a constant reduction in its daily production of crude oil. The above added to the inefficiencies observed in refineries, despite the effort made to stabilize them, partially offset by a recovery in international crude oil prices 4.4% higher than expected in the base scenario, although still 15.6% lower than the previous year.

Page 6: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 6 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

The working capital was better than projected with an amount of P$173.0mm in LTM at 1Q20 (vs. P$31.1mm in the base scenario), due to greater financing with vendors as a consequence of a slowdown in operations towards the end of March and delays in the validation processes by the Company, which contrasts with our estimate of a return of the days of vendors to historical levels which did not happen, increasing to 55 days in UDM at 1Q20 versus the estimate of 46 days (and a observed 40 days in LTM at 1Q19). We consider that the advance observed in vendors is temporary given the situation that the country and the world experienced due to the pandemic, seeing a reversal during 2Q20. Working capital was also positively impacted by lower inventory requirements by 47.3% thanks to better inventory turnover than expected with an average 24-day LTM in 1Q20 compared to the 26 days estimated in the base scenario. In the last twelve months as of 1Q20, the volume of crude production without condensates and partners was 1,700Mbd, similar to the 1,706Mbd considered in the base scenario and 3.9% below the 1,768Mbd of the previous year, also negatively impacting the volume of exports, which was 7.9% lower than in the MDUs as of 1Q19 (1,089Mbd as of 1Q20 vs. 1,183Mbd as of 1Q19). This negative trend has been mainly a consequence of the natural decline of mature fields, as well as the presence of fractional water flow in some deposits in the South region and the Northeast and Southwest marine regions. However, since 2Q19 and during 1Q20, hydrocarbon production reversed its decreasing trend thanks to the early production of new fields with higher productivity, major and minor well repairs and optimizations, and faster restoration of wells with pumping failures. , resulting in increases in the production of the Xanab, Ku-Maloob-Zaap and Ayatsil fields, as well as, in the Southwest marine region in the fields called Yaxche and Onel, coupled with the Ixachi, Bedel and Gasiferous fields in the North region and the Yagual, Rabasa, Guaricho, Puerto Ceiba, Teotleco and Samaria fields in the South region. Therefore, the production was stabilized during the second half of 2019 at 1,693Mbd compared to the 1,674Mbd average during the first half of the year, a trend that continued during 1Q20 where a production volume of 1,739Mbd was reached . Adjusted EBITDA in the last twelve months to 1Q20 showed a reduction of 49.3% and 3.1%, compared to the previous year and against our base scenario, respectively. The fall in Adjusted UFIDA is the result of the start of a new administration, the implementation of new strategies, lower domestic sales due to a drop in the prices of gasoline and diesel combined with a decrease in the sales volumes of these fuels due to the market loss given the entry of new competitors. Likewise, the adjusted EBITDA was affected by lower levels of crude oil production and exports, and the negative impact of unsuccessful wells, variation in inventories and cost of conservation and maintenance (partially offset by higher prices of the Mexican Mix than the previous year, although less than our estimate). The low operating results were offset by a decrease in Pemex's tax burden and a stabilization of crude processing in the National Refining System (SNR), not foreseen in the projections, which resulted in a margin of 17.5%, lower than 34.5 % from the previous year, but close to our estimate of 18.0% for the baseline scenario. The AFCF generated by Pemex reached an amount of P$347.3mm in the LTM as of 1Q20, 9.9% lower than the previous year, but 67.1% higher than our estimate in the base scenario. The AFCF showed an advance with respect to our previous projections, which is observed in our main metrics with a DSCR of 0.9x and a Net Debt to AFCF of 6.9 years, compared to the estimate of 0.5x and 14.4 years of the base scenario. The main factors that explain this relative improvement are a reduction in the tax burden and lower capital requirements, in vendors and inventories, offset by a fall in Adjusted

Page 7: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 7 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

EBITDA. Even though an advance was observed with respect to our projection, the levels observed the previous year that showed a DSCR of 1.4x and 5.2 years in the LTM as of 1Q19 were not reached. On the other hand, Pemex increased its indebtedness at the end of 1Q20 compared to the previous year, with a Net Debt 20.5% higher than that observed in 1Q19, but 19.5% below our base scenario from the previous review. The variation in debt between 1Q20 and 1Q19 was mostly derived from an exchange rate effect of approximately P$400m when comparing the rate of 19.4 pesos per dollar at 1Q19 versus 23.51 pesos per dollar at the end of 1Q20. Also, Pemex carried out issuance and refinancing operations on its bonds in foreign markets in 1Q20, placing in January two bonds for US$2,500.0m, each one with maturities in 2031 and 2060, and carried out the repurchase of bonds that matured this year and a bond exchange in the amount of US$1,252.0m for bonds that matures between 2021 and 2026 with a new bond of US$1,300.0m with a maturity of 11 years. As a result, Pemex has maintained its debt structure aligned with its business model, with 89.5% of its total long-term debt as of 1Q20 (vs. 86.4% as of 1Q19), reducing pressure on its liquidity. The Business Plan established a net debt policy of zero in real terms for 2020 and the company has indicated that it will seek to comply with this guideline. We are expecting that Pemex will continue executing liability management exercises aimed at strengthening the company's financial position without increasing debt, however, we estimate that higher levels of indebtedness could be observed in Pemex due to additional and extraordinary cash requirements given the current conditions of the industry and economic situation that is being experienced worldwide as a consequence of the pandemic. As a reference, Pemex net indebtedness ceiling for 2020 is P$10.0mm and US$1.25mm and, at the end of 1Q20, Pemex maintains 89.3% of its lines in dollars available, for an amount of US$6,650.0m (out of a total of US$7,450.0m, belonging to four syndicated lines of credit).

Page 8: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 8 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Appendix – Baseline Scenario

Page 9: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 9 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Page 10: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 10 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Page 11: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 11 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Appendix – Stress Scenario

Page 12: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 12 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Page 13: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 13 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Page 14: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 14 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Glossary

Barrel: Unit of volume for oil and derivative hydrocarbons, equal to 42 gal. (US) or 158.987304 liters. One cubic meter equals 6.28981041 barrels.

Barrel of oil equivalent (COE): The volume of gas (or other energy sources)

expressed in barrels of crude, equivalent to the same amount of energy (energy equivalency) obtained from crude.

Barrels per day (bpd): In production, the number of barrels of hydrocarbons

produced in a 24-hour period. This is usually given as an average figure over a longer period. It is calculated dividing the number of barrels during the year by 365 or 366 days, accordingly.

Fuel: Any substance used to produce thermal energy through a chemical or nuclear

reaction. The energy produced by the conversion of a combustible mass to heat.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (AFCF): Net Flow from Operating Activities – Investment Expenses for Maintenance – Special Adjustments.

Net Debt to AFCF: Net Debt / AFCF 12 months.

Net Debt to EBITDA: Net Debt / EBITDA 12 months.

Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): Cash Flow 12m / Debt Service 12m (Interest + Amortizations of Capital).

Natural gas: A mix of light paraffinic hydrocarbons, with methane as the main constituent with small quantities of ethane and propane; with variable proportions of non-organic gases, nitrogen, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide. Natural gas may be found in association with crude or may be found independently in unassociated gas wells or dry gas.

Hydrocarbons: Group of organic compounds that contain mainly carbon and hydrogen. These are the simplest organic compounds and can be considered the principal substances from which are other organic compounds are derived.

Excise Tax: Special tax on production and services, by which the federal government taxes self-consumption and the sale of gasoline, diesel and natural gas by Pemex Refinación and Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica to authorized retailers, who in turn sell directly to the end consumer.

Reserve: The portion feasible to recover from the total volume of hydrocarbons existing in subsoil rock.

Probable reserve: The amount of hydrocarbons estimated as of a specific date, using drilled and undrilled boring holes, defined by geological and geophysical methods, located in areas adjacent to productive deposits where there are technical and economic probabilities of obtaining production of hydrocarbons, at the same stratigraphic level where there are proved reserves.

Proved reserve: The volume of hydrocarbons measured at atmospheric conditions, which can be economically productive, using the exploitation methods and systems applicable at the time of the assessment, both primary and secondary.

Possible reserves: The quantity of hydrocarbons estimated on a specific date in undrilled boring holes, defined using geological and geophysical methods, located in areas away from producing fields, but within the same geologic province, with possibilities of technically and economically producing hydrocarbons, at the same stratigraphic level where there are proved reserves.

Mbd and MMbd: Thousands of barrels per day (Mbd) and millions of barrels per day (MMbd).

MMboe: Millions of barrels of oil equivalent.

MMfcd: millions of cubic feet per day.

mm: thousands of millions.

Page 15: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

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*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

HR Ratings Management Contacts Management

Chairman of the Board of Directors Vice President of the Board of Directors

Alberto I. Ramos +52 55 1500 3130 Aníbal Habeica +52 55 1500 3130

[email protected] [email protected]

Chief Executive Officer

Fernando Montes de Oca +52 55 1500 3130

[email protected]

Analysis

Chief Credit Officer Deputy Chief Credit Officer

Felix Boni +52 55 1500 3133 Pedro Latapí +52 55 8647 3845

[email protected] [email protected]

UNSECURED PUBLIC FINANCE / SOVEREIGNS SECURED PUBLIC FINANCE / INFRASTRUCTURE

Ricardo Gallegos +52 55 1500 3139 Roberto Ballinez +52 55 1500 3143

[email protected] [email protected]

Álvaro Rodríguez +52 55 1500 3147 Roberto Soto +52 55 1500 3148

[email protected] [email protected]

Financial Institutions / ABS Corporates / ABS

Angel García +52 55 1253 6549 Luis Miranda +52 55 1500 3146

[email protected] [email protected]

Methodologies José Luis Cano +52 55 1500 0763

[email protected]

Alfonso Sales +52 55 1253 3140

[email protected]

Regulation

Chief Risk Officer Head Compliance Officer

Rogelio Argüelles +52 181 8187 9309 Alejandra Medina +52 55 1500 0761

[email protected] [email protected]

Business Development

Business Development

Francisco Valle +52 55 1500 3134

[email protected]

Page 16: Petróleos Mexicanos HR BBB+ (G) release_Pemex... · Pemex of P$347.3mm in the LTM at 1Q20 was 67.1% higher than our base scenario but 9.9% below the previous year. As a result, our

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 16 of 16

*HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

Petróleos Mexicanos State-owned Productive Enterprise

HR BBB+ (G)

Corporates July 24, 2020

Mexico: Guillermo González Camarena No. 1200, Piso 10, Colonia Centro de Ciudad Santa Fe, Del. Álvaro Obregón, C.P. 01210, Ciudad de México. Tel 52 (55) 1500 3130.

United States: One World Trade Center, Suite 8500, New York, New York, ZIP Code 10007, Tel +1 (212) 220 5735.

Complementary information

Previous Rating. Initial

Date of the last Rating Action. Initial

Period of the financial information used by HR Ratings for the assignment of the current rating.

1st Quarter 2011 to 1st Quarter 2020.

Main sources of information used, including third parties. Internal financial and operational report published by the Company, final term sheet of the notes and bonds, presentations issued by the Company and Audited Financial Statements by BOD and KPMG since 2018 year.

Ratings assigned by other rating agencies that were used by HR Ratings (if so). NA

HR Ratings considered at the moment of assigning or reviewing the rating, the existence of mechanisms designed to align the incentives between the originator, servicer and guarantor and the possible buyers of the rated instrument (where it applies).

NA

*HR Ratings, LLC (HR Ratings), is a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) for the assets of public finance, corporates and financial institutions as described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

The rating was solicited by the entity or issuer, or on its behalf, and therefore, HR Ratings has received the corresponding fees for the rating services provided. The following information can be found on our website at www.hrratings.com: (i) The internal procedures for the monitoring and surveillance of our ratings and the periodicity with which they are formally updated, (ii) the criteria used by HR Ratings for the withdrawal or suspension of the maintenance of a rating, (iii) the procedure and process of voting on our Analysis Committee, and (iv) the rating scales and their definitions. HR Ratings ratings and/or opinions are opinions of credit quality and/or regarding the ability of management to administer assets; or opinions regarding the efficacy of activities to meet the nature or purpose of the business on the part of issuers, other entities or sectors, and are based exclusively on the characteristics of the entity, issuer or operation, independent of any activity or business that exists between HR Ratings and the entity or issuer. The ratings and/or opinions assigned are issued on behalf of HR Ratings, not of its management or technical staff, and do not constitute an investment recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any instrument nor to perform any business, investment or other operation. The assigned ratings and/or opinions issued may be subject to updates at any time, in accordance with HR Ratings’ methodologies. HR Ratings bases its ratings and/or opinions on information obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate and reliable. HR Ratings, however, does not validate, guarantee or certify the accuracy, correctness or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Most issuers of debt securities rated by HR Ratings have paid a fee for the credit rating based on the amount and type of debt issued. The degree of creditworthiness of an issue or issuer, opinions regarding asset manager quality or ratings related to an entity’s performance of its business purpose are subject to change, which can produce a

rating upgrade or downgrade, without implying any responsibility for HR Ratings. The ratings issued by HR Ratings are assigned in an ethical manner, in accordance with healthy market practices and in compliance with applicable regulations found on the www.hrratings.com rating agency webpage. There Code of Conduct, HR Ratings’ rating methodologies, rating criteria and current ratings can also be found on the website. Ratings and/or opinions assigned by HR Ratings are based on an analysis of the creditworthiness of an entity, issue or issuer, and do not necessarily imply a statistical likelihood of default, HR Ratings defines as the inability or unwillingness to satisfy the contractually stipulated payment terms of an obligation, such that creditors and/or bondholders are forced to take action in order to recover their investment or to restructure the debt due to a situation of stress faced by the debtor. Without disregard to the aforementioned point, in order to validate our ratings, our methodologies consider stress scenarios as a complement to the analysis derived from a base case scenario. The rating fee that HR Ratings receives from issuers generally ranges from US$1,000 to US$1,000,000 (or the foreign currency equivalent) per issue. In some instances, HR Ratings will rate all or some of the issues of a particular issuer for an annual fee. It is estimated that the annual fees range from US$5,000 to US$2,000,00 (or the foreign currency equivalent).

The rating assigned by HR Ratings LLC to the entity, issuer and/or issue is based upon the analysis performed under a base case and stress case scenario, in accordance with the following methodology(ies) established by the rating agency: Rating Methodology for Corporate Debt Credit Risk Evaluation, May 2014 General Methodological Criteria, March 2019 Sovereign Debt Methodology, May 2017

For more information with respect to this (these) metodology(ies), please consult the website:

www.hrratings.com/en/methodology