Peruvian Presidential Candidates Face Growing Uncertainty - FT

8/19/2019 Peruvian Presidential Candidates Face Growing Uncertainty - FT

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3/24/2016 Per uvi an pr esi denti al candi dates face gr ow ing uncer tai nty - FT.com

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March 23, 2016 1:35 am

Andres Schipani, Andes Correspondent

Peruvian presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori

With Peru facing a presidential election next month, nobody kno ws how many more heads will

still roll in the battle to replace incumbent Ollanta Humala, who cannot run for a second

consecutive term.

Keik o Fujimori, the leading candidate to replace Mr Humala and daughter of the imprisoned

former president, could this week be barred from the election, casting yet another shadow over

the political system of this Andean mining powerhouse. Two of her main rivals were already

barred from the race, and another may follow suit.

A Special Election Board is voting on whether Ms Fujimori broke

an election law that prohibits candidates from giving out money during campaigning. Her party

allegedly organised a hip-hop contest with supporters, in which cash prizes were distributed.

Peruvian presidential candidates face growinguncertainty

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Not eggs, stones,

insults, reproaches or

demands for exclusion

thrown at me will stop

our electoral

campaign

- Keiko Fujimori

Her party argues she was there, but did not give out any money.

Under the Andean country’s new electoral law, candidates can be disqualified for donating cash

or goods to supporters with a value of more than $5 during their campaigns. “Not eggs, stones,

insults, reproaches or demands for exclusion thrown at me will stop our electoral campaign,”

said Ms Fujimori, leader of the Fuerza Popular party.

The investigation comes after anti-Fujimori protests, which saw several thousand people

marching against her during last week. The “No to Keiko” campaign is planning more rallies for

April 5 — the anniversary of the “self-coup” by her populist father, Alberto, who in 1992 shut

down the legislative and judiciary powers.

The world’s third-largest copper producer may be Latin America’s fastest-growing major

economy, but politics now threaten to cast a shadow on that story, though in ways that are

different from the receding “pink tide” that has seen regional ruling leftist governments thrown

into disrepute as commodity prices slide.

Unlike Brazil or Venezuela, Peru is far from crumbling. Yet with a twisted and discredited

political system, Lima-based ConsultAndes says “the only thing certain today is that election

authorities look incompetent at best and corrupt at worst, while the nation appears incapable

of holding a free, fair and orderly election”.

It seems, some argue, either bureaucracy or perverse machinations are making it hard to get

there. Last week, the National Election Board ratified its earlier decision to bar César Acuña, a

former mayor of Trujillo, also for handing out cash on the campaign trail, and economist JulioGuzmán for an administrative mistake by his party.

Both have filed petitions with the Inter-American Commission of

Human Rights, with Mr Guzmán arguing the decisions violated the

constitutional rights of himself and his supporters. Mr Guzmán was

the clear second-place candidate in all polls when electoral officials

ruled him out, sparking outrage and accusations of bias and political

pressures from his Everyone for Peru party and his supporters.

“We have a political establishment that has been governing the

country for the past 30 years, and when a totally new option arises,

rocketing from 1 per cent to 20 per cent support in no time, they

take advantage of bothersome, contradictory and inconsistent

electoral rules to exclude it,” Mr Guzmán told the Financial Times.

Now, a possible bar on Ms Fujimori would bring further uncertainty to the vote set for April 10.

She is supported by 31 per cent of voters, according to an Ipsos-El Comercio poll. Failure to

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We are creating a

terrible precedent, not

ust for Peru but for the

whole world. The lack

of credibility in the

electoral process isgrowing steadily

- Julio Guzmán, barred presidential

candidate

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disqualify her, however, would reinforce an argument that the rules are not applied equally.

“An adverse ruling will result in her disqualification, and likely put into question the whole

electoral process as a vote will be held without three candidates that had more than 50 per cent

of voter intentions,” wrote Maria Luisa Puig, a Peruvian analyst with Eurasia, the risk-

consultancy.

“On the other hand, if she is allowed to remain in the race, this would probably be seen as

unfair by a sector of the electorate following the disqualifications of Guzmán and Acuña, which

could in turn spark protests and further increase her rejection rates,” Ms Puig added.

One candidate who could reap benefits of her potential disqualification is Pedro Pablo

Kuczynski, a 77-year-old Oxford-educated former World Bank economist and mining minister.

He trails behind her with 15 per cent support — although his head could also roll as he is

accused of distributing beer at a rally in the district of Sapallanga.

“I gave away absolutely nothing,” he said on Monday after a video showed him on a stage,

beside a man announcing that he had brought crates of beer.

Close to Mr Kuczynski, both with about 11 per cent of support, and

possibilities of making further ground, are Alfredo Barnechea, the

Harvard-trained centrist, and Verónika Mendoza, the Sorbonne-

educated leftist. Nomura, the global investment bank, says Ms

Mendoza’s “surge could pose some risks, as her leftist stance could

increase the likelihood of market-unfriendly policies”.

Alan García, a two-time president, has 7 per cent support, and may

benefit from an elimination of the more experienced candidates

such as Ms Fujimori and Mr Kuczynski.

Whoever ultimately takes the reins, the next president will have to

ensure Peru’s economy remains on track amid the commodities downturn, wrestle with

simmering mining conflicts and battle US hedge fund Gramercy.

For Mr Guzmán, the current political chaos “is unprecedented in a modern democracy. We are

creating a terrible precedent, not just for Peru but for the whole world. The lack of credibility in

the electoral process is growing steadily here. So no one knows what will happen in the coming

weeks.”

dditional reporting by Lucien Chauvin in Lima

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