PERUN- software demonstration -

Martin Dubrovsky (dub@ufa.cas.cz)

Mirek Trnka (mirek_trnka@yahoo.com

Introduction to this afternoon

(several experiments will be made)

main window of PERUN

Window 2: Directories and lists

Window 3: Parameters of Met&Roll

Window 4: importing weather data

Seasonal analysis (AG-01)

Meteo input:

- observed data

- 1 year

- no forecast

- no scenario

Seasonal analysis (AG-01) - graph 1

Multi-year analysis (AG-02)

Meteo input:

- observed data

- 40 year

- no forecast

- no scenario

Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 1

Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 2

Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 3

Sensitivity analysis (AG-03): precipitation

Meteo input:

- observed data

- 40 year

- no forecast

- no scenario

Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 3

Sensitivity analysis (AG-03): soil

Meteo input:

- observed data

- 40 year

- no forecast

- no scenario

Seasonal analysis (AG-03) - graph 3

Probabilistic seasonal forecast of crop yields (AG-04)sensitivity to the lead-time

Meteo input:

- observed till day0-1

- synthetic since day0

- 10 re-runs

- no forecast

- no scenario

Crop yield forecasting (AG-04) - graph 3

Weather forecast - type 1

* weather forecast

METHOD = 1

...averages... ..std. deviation..

@JD-from JD-to TMAX TMIN PREC TMAX TMIN PREC

99121 99130 17 6 30 2 2 10

99131 99140 14 4 60 3 3 20

99141 99150 21 10 10 4 4 10

@

Weather forecast - type 2

* weather forecast

METHOD = 3

...averages... ..std. deviation..

@JD-from JD-to TMAX TMIN PREC TMAX TMIN PREC

99121 99130 1 1 1.2 1 1 1

99131 99140 0 0 1.0 1 1 1

99141 99150 -1 -1 0.9 1 1 1

@

Climate change impacts on crop yields (AG-05.exp)

Meteo input:

- synthetic

- scenario

- 99 years

- no forecast

Makkink!!!

Climate change scenario

@original file =WIE-A2H.sc

MONTH DTR PRE RAD TMN TMP TMX VAP WND

--- + * * + + + * *

0 0.341 -2.568 2.626 1.284 1.454 1.625 6.600 0.766

1 -0.054 8.354 -3.884 1.233 1.206 1.178 9.298 -0.335

2 0.101 3.694 -3.544 1.315 1.365 1.416 10.467 0.542

3 0.239 3.377 -0.458 0.902 1.022 1.141 6.012 0.582

4 0.100 6.025 1.216 1.080 1.130 1.180 6.175 0.620

5 0.128 2.539 2.726 1.230 1.294 1.358 6.932 0.152

6 0.308 -7.229 3.895 1.224 1.378 1.532 5.971 1.372

7 0.699 -13.576 3.812 1.524 1.874 2.223 6.308 2.994

8 1.164 -15.628 6.828 1.666 2.248 2.831 4.757 2.650

9 0.958 -9.463 7.242 1.516 1.995 2.474 4.673 0.439

10 0.174 1.774 1.424 1.292 1.379 1.466 8.211 -0.138

11 0.265 -2.996 -0.404 0.951 1.084 1.216 7.023 -0.835

12 0.010 7.344 -3.748 1.472 1.477 1.482 10.945 1.612

Climate change impacts - graph 3

(3 climates) x (2 ambient CO2)

Now350

Now535

HadCM3 350

NCAR 350

HadCM3 535

NCAR 535

Multi-site analysis - 1

# multi-station analysis

@idx soil rdmsol wav wght

CZ01 CZ01.awc 132 15.6 56

CZ05 CZ05.awc 133 14.2 67

CZ06 CZ06.awc 127 13.4 70

CZ09 CZ09.awc 87 7.5 44

CZ13 CZ13.awc 111 9.5 181

CZ19 CZ19.awc 129 13.1 45

***

Multi-site analysis - 2

# multi-station analysis

@idx soil crop wea lat lon RDMsol WAV idsol weight

c001 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB BTUR 49.16 16.70 132 15.6 0 714

c002 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CASL 49.85 15.67 132 15.6 0 252

c003 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CERV 49.78 17.54 132 15.6 0 0

c004 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CHEB 50.07 12.39 132 15.6 0 0

c005 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CHUR 49.07 13.61 132 15.6 0 0

c006 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB DOKS 50.46 14.17 132 15.6 0 760

c007 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB DOMA 49.53 16.25 132 15.6 0 31

c008 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HAVL 49.61 15.58 132 15.6 0 0

c009 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HNEV 50.30 15.72 132 15.6 0 126

c010 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HOLE 49.32 17.57 132 15.6 0 137

c011 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HRAD 50.18 15.84 132 15.6 0 0

c012 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HUMP 49.55 15.55 132 15.6 0 0

c013 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HUSI 49.04 13.99 132 15.6 0 0

PERUN - notes on installation

?. Delete C:\MADSOFT\PERUN directory

1. Open CD:\PERUN

2. Run “installPerun.bat”

3. find and run “c:\madsoft\perun\perun.exe”

4. Open experiment: AG-01.exp and START