Pert Cpm Wbs

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PERT/CPM PERT/CPM

Transcript of Pert Cpm Wbs

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PERT/CPMPERT/CPM

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Key TermsKey Terms Critical PathCritical Path: : The longest time path The longest time path

through the task network.through the task network. The series of The series of tasks (or even a single task) that dictates tasks (or even a single task) that dictates the calculated finish date of the project the calculated finish date of the project (That is, when the last task in the critical (That is, when the last task in the critical path is completed, the project is path is completed, the project is completed) The "longest" path (in terms of completed) The "longest" path (in terms of time) to the completion of a project. If time) to the completion of a project. If shortened, it would shorten the time it shortened, it would shorten the time it takes to complete the project. Activities off takes to complete the project. Activities off the critical path would not affect the critical path would not affect completion time even if they were done completion time even if they were done more quickly. more quickly.

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Slack TimeSlack TimeThe amount of time a task can be delayed before the The amount of time a task can be delayed before the

project finish date is delayed. Total slack can be project finish date is delayed. Total slack can be positive or negative. If total slack is a positive it positive or negative. If total slack is a positive it indicates the amount of time that the task can be indicates the amount of time that the task can be delayed without delaying the project finish date. If delayed without delaying the project finish date. If negative, it indicates the amount of time that must negative, it indicates the amount of time that must be saved so that the project finish date is not be saved so that the project finish date is not delayed. delayed. Total Slack = Latest Start - Earliest Start.Total Slack = Latest Start - Earliest Start. By default and by definition, a task with 0 slack is By default and by definition, a task with 0 slack is considered a considered a critical taskcritical task. If a critical task is . If a critical task is delayed, the project finish date is also delayed. delayed, the project finish date is also delayed. (Also known as float time)(Also known as float time)

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CrashingCrashingShifting resources to reduce slack time Shifting resources to reduce slack time so the critical path is as short as so the critical path is as short as possible. Always raises project costs possible. Always raises project costs and is typically disruptive – and is typically disruptive – a project a project should be crashed with cautionshould be crashed with caution..

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Gantt ChartGantt Chart:: A bar chart. While visually A bar chart. While visually appealing on a task/duration basis, it is appealing on a task/duration basis, it is limited because it does not show task or limited because it does not show task or resource relationships well. Strength: resource relationships well. Strength: easy to maintain and read.easy to maintain and read.

Network DiagramNetwork Diagram:: A wire diagram, Also A wire diagram, Also known as a PERT network diagram. A known as a PERT network diagram. A diagram that shows tasks and their diagram that shows tasks and their relationships. Limited because it shows relationships. Limited because it shows only task relationships. Strength: easy to only task relationships. Strength: easy to read task relationships.read task relationships.

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Sample Gantt ChartSample Gantt Chart

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DependenciesDependenciesLinks Links betweenbetween project tasks. There are 3 project tasks. There are 3

types of dependencies:types of dependencies: CausalCausal, where 1 task must be completed , where 1 task must be completed

before another can begin (have to bake before another can begin (have to bake bread before you can make a sandwich)bread before you can make a sandwich)

critical path schedulescritical path schedules are based are based onlyonly on causal on causal dependencies dependencies

ResourceResource, where a task is limited by , where a task is limited by availability of resources (more bread can be availability of resources (more bread can be baked by 2 bakers, but only 1 is available)baked by 2 bakers, but only 1 is available)

Discretionary,Discretionary, optional task sequence optional task sequence preferences that, though not required, may preferences that, though not required, may reflect organizational preferencesreflect organizational preferences

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Dummy activityDummy activityAn imaginary activity with no duration, used An imaginary activity with no duration, used

to show either an indirect relationship to show either an indirect relationship between 2 tasks or to clarify the identities between 2 tasks or to clarify the identities of the tasks . In CPM, each activity must of the tasks . In CPM, each activity must be uniquely defined by its beginning and be uniquely defined by its beginning and ending point. When two activities begin ending point. When two activities begin and end at the same time, a dummy and end at the same time, a dummy activity (an activity which begins and ends activity (an activity which begins and ends at the same time) is inserted into the at the same time) is inserted into the model to distinguish the two activities. model to distinguish the two activities.

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MilestoneMilestoneAA significant task which significant task which represents a key represents a key accomplishment within accomplishment within the project. Typically the project. Typically requires special attention requires special attention and control.and control.

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Work Breakdown Structure Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)(WBS)

A detailed, hierarchical (from A detailed, hierarchical (from general to specific) tree structure general to specific) tree structure of deliverables and tasks that need of deliverables and tasks that need to be performed to complete a to be performed to complete a project.project.

Purpose: to identify actual tasks to Purpose: to identify actual tasks to be done in a project. Serves as be done in a project. Serves as basis for project planning.basis for project planning.

An extension to PERT. An extension to PERT.

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

Identify the major task categoriesIdentify the major task categories Identify Identify subsub-tasks, and -tasks, and subsub--subsub-tasks-tasks Use verb-noun to imply action to Use verb-noun to imply action to

somethingsomething Example: Getting up in the morningExample: Getting up in the morning

Hit snooze buttonHit snooze button Hit snooze button againHit snooze button again Get outa bedGet outa bed Avoid dogAvoid dog Go to bathroom…Go to bathroom…

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Create WBSCreate WBS Decomposition of project Decomposition of project

deliverables and activities into deliverables and activities into smaller, more manageable partssmaller, more manageable parts

The lowest level in WBS is a The lowest level in WBS is a Work Work PackagePackage based on Statement Of based on Statement Of Work (Work (SOWSOW))

Needs to be Needs to be S.M.A.R.TS.M.A.R.T (Specific, (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, Timely)Timely)

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

Canoe Trip to Boundary Waters

Arrange Travel Get Equipment Prepare BudgetPlan Meals

Schedule Flights to Mpls

Rent Van

Arrange Motel

Schedule return flights

Contact BW Outfitter Bring cooking gear

Freeze dry food

Assign Budget Person

Get deposits

Retain Receipts

Pay for supplies

Close-out trip

Plan for Emergencies Plan Activities

Rent canoes

Rent Tents

Bring Sleeping Bags

Bring Fishing Gear

Prepare 7 breakfasts

Prepare 7 lunches

Prepare 6 dinners

Obtain emerg. #’s

Arrange contact at BW

Bring emerg. flares

Bring two first aid kits

Bring Cards

Bring Joke book

Bring scotch

Bring lights and waterproof

matches

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

Canoe Trip to Boundary Waters

Arrange Travel Get Equipment Prepare BudgetPlan Meals

Schedule Flights to Mpls

Rent Van

Arrange Motel

Schedule return flights

Contact BW Outfitter Bring cooking gear

Freeze dry food

Assign Budget Person

Get deposits

Retain Receipts

Pay for supplies

Close-out trip

Plan for Emergencies Plan Activities

Rent canoes

Rent Tents

Bring Sleeping Bags

Bring Fishing Gear

Prepare 7 breakfasts

Prepare 7 lunches

Prepare 6 dinners

Obtain emerg. #’s

Arrange contact at BW

Bring emerg. flares

Bring two first aid kits

Bring Cards

Bring Joke book

Bring scotch

Bring lights and waterproof

matches

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

Canoe Trip to Boundary Waters

Arrange Travel Get Equipment Prepare BudgetPlan Meals

Schedule Flights to Mpls

Rent Van

Arrange Motel

Schedule return flights

Contact BW Outfitter Bring cooking gear

Freeze dry food

Assign Budget Person

Get deposits

Retain Receipts

Pay for supplies

Close-out trip

Plan for Emergencies Plan Activities

Rent canoes

Rent Tents

Bring Sleeping Bags

Bring Fishing Gear

Prepare 7 breakfasts

Prepare 7 lunches

Prepare 6 dinners

Obtain emerg. #’s

Arrange contact at BW

Bring emerg. flares

Bring two first aid kits

Bring Cards

Bring Joke book

Bring scotch

Bring lights and waterproof

matches

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

Canoe Trip to Boundary Waters

Arrange Travel Get Equipment Prepare BudgetPlan Meals

Schedule Flights to Mpls

Rent Van

Arrange Motel

Schedule return flights

Contact BW Outfitter Bring cooking gear

Freeze dry food

Assign Budget Person

Get deposits

Retain Receipts

Pay for supplies

Close-out trip

Plan for Emergencies Plan Activities

Rent canoes

Rent Tents

Bring Sleeping Bags

Bring Fishing Gear

Prepare 7 breakfasts

Prepare 7 lunches

Prepare 6 dinners

Obtain emerg. #’s

Arrange contact at BW

Bring emerg. flares

Bring two first aid kits

Bring Cards

Bring Joke book

Bring scotch

Bring lights and waterproof

matches

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

System Hardware Replacement

RFP Development Vendor Selection Hardware ImplementationStaff Training

Needs Assessment

Needs Analysis

Write RFP

Finalize with Purchasing

Research Vendors

Research Sites

Select Vendors to mail RFP

Review Proposals

Identify training Plan

Schedule Training

Train

Schedule Installation

Prepare Site

Arrange Vendor Support

Rank Proposals

Recommendation

Configure System

Install System

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

System Hardware Replacement

RFP Development Vendor Selection Hardware ImplementationStaff Training

Assess Needs

Analyze Needs

Write RFP

Finalize with Purchasing

Research Vendors

Research Sites

Select Vendors to mail RFP

Review Proposals

Identify training Plan

Schedule Training

Train Sysadmins

Schedule Installation

Prepare Site

Arrange Vendor Support

Rank Proposals

Make Recommendations

Configure System

Install System

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Work Breakdown Work Breakdown StructureStructure

Requires structured brainstormingRequires structured brainstorming

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WBS DictionaryWBS Dictionary A companion document to the WBSA companion document to the WBS May have detailed content of the components May have detailed content of the components

contained in a WBS, including work packages and contained in a WBS, including work packages and control accountscontrol accounts

For each WBS component, the WBS dictionary For each WBS component, the WBS dictionary includes a code of account identifier, a statement includes a code of account identifier, a statement of work, responsible organization, and a list of of work, responsible organization, and a list of schedule milestonesschedule milestones

Can include a list of associated schedule Can include a list of associated schedule activities, resources required, and an estimate of activities, resources required, and an estimate of costcost

Each WBS component is cross-referenced, as Each WBS component is cross-referenced, as appropriate, to other WBS componentsappropriate, to other WBS components

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Project Management Project Management AssumptionsAssumptions

PM makes several PM makes several keykey assumptions assumptions All tasks have distinct begin and end pointsAll tasks have distinct begin and end points All estimates can be mathematically derivedAll estimates can be mathematically derived Tasks must be able to be arranged in a defined Tasks must be able to be arranged in a defined

sequence that produces a pre-defined resultsequence that produces a pre-defined result Resources may be shifted to meet needResources may be shifted to meet need Cost and time share a direct relationship (Cost Cost and time share a direct relationship (Cost

of each activity is evenly spread over time)of each activity is evenly spread over time) Time, of itself, has no valueTime, of itself, has no value

These assumptions make PM These assumptions make PM controversialcontroversial

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THE PM Concept THE PM Concept AssumptionAssumption

A Critical Path ExistsA Critical Path Exists A small set of activities, which make up the A small set of activities, which make up the

longest pathlongest path through the activity network through the activity network control the entire project. control the entire project.

If these "If these "criticalcritical" activities could be " activities could be identified & assigned to responsible persons, identified & assigned to responsible persons, management resources could be optimally management resources could be optimally used by concentrating on the few activities used by concentrating on the few activities which determine the fate of the entire which determine the fate of the entire project.project.

Others can be re-planned, rescheduled & Others can be re-planned, rescheduled & resources for them can be reallocated, resources for them can be reallocated, without affecting the project. without affecting the project.

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Standardized PM ToolsStandardized PM Tools

1917: Henry Gantt introduced standardized 1917: Henry Gantt introduced standardized PM tools PM tools

Gantt ChartGantt Chart – visual tracking of tasks and resources – visual tracking of tasks and resources Depiction of Depiction of relationshipsrelationships between tasks between tasks Depiction of Depiction of constraintsconstraints between tasks between tasks First First Widespread acceptanceWidespread acceptance of a single technique of a single technique

Created out of need and frustration as Created out of need and frustration as industrialization became ever more industrialization became ever more complexcomplex

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PERT & CPMPERT & CPM

PERTPERT (Program Evaluation and Review (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) – introduced by US military (Navy) in Technique) – introduced by US military (Navy) in 19581958

US Navy : control costs & schedules for Polaris Submarine US Navy : control costs & schedules for Polaris Submarine constructionconstruction

CPM CPM (Critical Path Method) – introduced by US (Critical Path Method) – introduced by US industry in 1958 (DuPont Corporation and industry in 1958 (DuPont Corporation and Remington-Rand)Remington-Rand)

Industry: control costs and schedules in manufacturingIndustry: control costs and schedules in manufacturing Common weakness to both: ignores most dependenciesCommon weakness to both: ignores most dependencies

Considers only completion of a preceding required taskConsiders only completion of a preceding required task Both rely on a Both rely on a logical sequencelogical sequence of tasks of tasks

Organized visually (Charts), tabular or simple listsOrganized visually (Charts), tabular or simple lists

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An Example of a Logical An Example of a Logical SequenceSequence

Making a simple list of tasksMaking a simple list of tasksPlanting trees with Planting trees with flowers and edging flowers and edging around them – tasks around them – tasks required to complete required to complete this project:this project:1.1. Mark utilities,Mark utilities, 2.2. Dig Dig Holes,Holes, 3.3. Buy trees,Buy trees, 4.4. Buy flowers,Buy flowers, 5.5. Plant Plant trees,trees, 6.6. Plant flowers,Plant flowers, 7.7. Buy edging,Buy edging, 8.8. Install edgingInstall edging

This list does not This list does not reflect time or reflect time or moneymoney

This list does not This list does not reflect task reflect task relationshipsrelationships

This list is a simple This list is a simple sequence of logical sequence of logical eventsevents

This list does not This list does not provide an easy provide an easy project “snapshot”project “snapshot”

Hard to see conflictsHard to see conflicts

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An Example of a Logical An Example of a Logical SequenceSequence

Tabular Tabular – – including time and cost dataincluding time and cost dataTask Name Normal Time

(Days)Crashed Time

(Days)Normal Cost

($)Crashed Cost

($)

Mark Utilities 3 3 0 0Dig Holes 2 1 100 200Buy Trees .5 .5 50 50Buy Flowers .5 .5 50 50Plant Trees 2 1 100 200Plant Flowers 1 .5 50 100Buy Edging .5 .5 25 25Install Edging 1 .5 25 50

TOTALS 10 6 400 675

NOTE: Shaded areas are concurrent tasks that are completed along the timeline- they contribute to overall cost but not overall duration

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An Example of a Logical An Example of a Logical SequenceSequence

Visual Visual - - Using a PERT Chart (Network Using a PERT Chart (Network Diagram)Diagram)Planting trees with flowers and edging around Planting trees with flowers and edging around

themthemVisual – task relationships are clear – good Visual – task relationships are clear – good

snapshotsnapshot

1Mark

Utilities

2Dig Holes

5Plant Trees

6Plant

Flowers

8Install Edging

4Buy

Flowers

3Buy Trees

7Buy

Edging

STA

RT

EN

D

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Variation in NetworksVariation in NetworksStandards such as BS 6046Activity on ArrowActivity on Node

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1 2 5 6 8

4

3

7

STA

RT

EN

D

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Early Start Duration Early Finish

Late Start Slack Late Finish

Task Name

0 3 3

2 2 5

1 Mark Utilities

Early Start Duration Early

Finish

Late Start Slack Late Finish

3 Buy Trees

Early Start Duration Early

Finish

Late Start Slack Late Finish

2 Dig Holes

Early Start Duration Early

Finish

Late Start Slack Late Finish

4 Buy Flowers

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0 3 3

0 0 3

1 Mark Utilities

3 .5 3.5

LS Slack LF

3 Buy Trees

3 2 5

3 0 5

2 Dig Holes

3 .5 3.5

LS Slack LF

4 Buy Flowers

5 2 7

5 0 7

5 Plant Trees

7 1 8

7 0 8

6 Plant Flowers

8 1 9

8 0 9

8 Install Edging

3 .5 3.5

LS Slack LF

7 Buy Edging

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Forward and Backward Forward and Backward PassPass

Forward pass is a technique to move forward Forward pass is a technique to move forward through a diagram to calculate activity through a diagram to calculate activity duration. Backward pass is its opposite. duration. Backward pass is its opposite.

Early Start (ES)Early Start (ES) and and Early Finish (EF)Early Finish (EF) use use the forward pass technique. the forward pass technique.

Late Start (LS)Late Start (LS) and and Late Finish(LF)Late Finish(LF) use use the backward pass technique. the backward pass technique.

MEMORY TRIGGER: if the float of the MEMORY TRIGGER: if the float of the activity is zero, activity is zero, the two starts (ES and LS) the two starts (ES and LS) and the two finish (EF and LF) are the sameand the two finish (EF and LF) are the same. . Hence, If float of activity is zero, ES = LS Hence, If float of activity is zero, ES = LS and EF = LF. and EF = LF.

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PM Today – Necessary?PM Today – Necessary? Frustration with cost & schedule overrunsFrustration with cost & schedule overruns Frustration with reliability of production estimatesFrustration with reliability of production estimates Management challenges exist today:Management challenges exist today:

Only Only 44%44% of projects are completed on time of projects are completed on time On average, projects are On average, projects are 189%189% over-budget over-budget 70%70% of completed projects do not perform as expected of completed projects do not perform as expected 30%30% of projects are canceled before completion of projects are canceled before completion On average, projects are On average, projects are 222%222% longer than expected longer than expected

PM has been shown to improve this performancePM has been shown to improve this performanceThese statistics were compiled by an independent monitoring group, The These statistics were compiled by an independent monitoring group, The

Standish Group, and represent the US national average for 1998 Standish Group, and represent the US national average for 1998

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PERT/CPM PERT/CPM CALCULATIONSCALCULATIONS

Basic TechniquesBasic Techniques

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PERT CalculationsPERT Calculations Step 1: Define tasksStep 1: Define tasks Step 2: Place Tasks in a logical order, find the Step 2: Place Tasks in a logical order, find the critical critical

pathpath The longest time path through the task network.The longest time path through the task network. The series of The series of

tasks (or even a single task) that dictates the calculated tasks (or even a single task) that dictates the calculated finish datefinish date

Step 3: Generate estimatesStep 3: Generate estimates Optimistic, pessimistic, likely and PERT- expectedOptimistic, pessimistic, likely and PERT- expected Standard Deviation and varianceStandard Deviation and variance

Step 4: Determine Step 4: Determine earliest and latest datesearliest and latest dates Step 5:Determine Step 5:Determine probabilityprobability of meeting expected date of meeting expected date Steps 1 and 2 are logic and legwork, not calculation – Steps 1 and 2 are logic and legwork, not calculation –

these require a clear goalthese require a clear goal

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PERT Calculations – Step PERT Calculations – Step 33

Assuming steps 1 and 2 have been completed begin Assuming steps 1 and 2 have been completed begin calculations – use a table to organize your calculationscalculations – use a table to organize your calculations

Simple calculations to estimate project durationsSimple calculations to estimate project durations Based on input of 3 estimated durations Based on input of 3 estimated durations per taskper task

Most Optimistic (TMost Optimistic (TOO) – best case scenario) – best case scenario Most Likely (TMost Likely (TLL) “normal” scenario) “normal” scenario Most Pessimistic (TMost Pessimistic (TPP) Worst case scenario) Worst case scenario

Formula derives a probability-based expected duration Formula derives a probability-based expected duration (T(TEE)) ((TTO O x 1 x 1 ++ TTLL x 4 x 4 + + TTP P x 1 x 1) / 6 = ) / 6 = TTEE Read this formula as the sum of (optimistic x 1 + likely x 4 + Read this formula as the sum of (optimistic x 1 + likely x 4 +

pessimistic x 1) divided by 6 = expected task durationpessimistic x 1) divided by 6 = expected task duration Complete this calculation for all tasksComplete this calculation for all tasks

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PERT Calculations – Step PERT Calculations – Step 33

Standard deviation and varianceStandard deviation and variance Standard deviation (SD) is the average Standard deviation (SD) is the average

deviation from the estimated timedeviation from the estimated time SD=(TSD=(TPP-T-T00)/6 {)/6 {read as (pessimistic-read as (pessimistic-

optimistic)/6}optimistic)/6} As a general rule, the higher the standard As a general rule, the higher the standard

deviation the greater the amount of deviation the greater the amount of uncertaintyuncertainty

Variance (V) reflects the spread of a Variance (V) reflects the spread of a value over a normal distributionvalue over a normal distribution V=SDV=SD2 2 (Standard deviation squared)(Standard deviation squared)

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PERT Calculations – Step PERT Calculations – Step 33

When doing manual PERT Calculations it is When doing manual PERT Calculations it is helpful to construct a table to stay organized helpful to construct a table to stay organized

Consider the sample project– planting trees Consider the sample project– planting trees and flowers, set up using a listand flowers, set up using a list Rough estimates and no risk analysisRough estimates and no risk analysis

No Range, simply rough estimates - unreliable?No Range, simply rough estimates - unreliable? PERT Analysis will better refine estimatesPERT Analysis will better refine estimates

Start by setting up a table to organize dataStart by setting up a table to organize data

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Our Project – A RefresherOur Project – A RefresherTASK ID Description Duration (Days)

1 Mark Utilities ?2 Dig Holes ?3 Buy Trees ?4 Buy Flowers ?5 Plant Trees ?6 Plant Flowers ?7 Buy Edging ?8 Install Edging ?

Set up in visual form it might look like this…

Set up in tabular form, it might look like this…

1Mark

Utilities

2Dig Holes

5Plant Trees

6Plant

Flowers

8Install Edging

4Buy

Flowers

3Buy Trees

7Buy

Edging

STA

RT

EN

D

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PERT Step 3PERT Step 3– First Get – First Get OrganizedOrganized

CRITICAL PATH TASKS (Longest Duration)TASK TO TL TP TE

12568

TOTALOTHER PROJECT TASKS

TASK TO TL TP TE

347

TOTAL

In considering all tasks on the previous slide, a table might look like this

TO-Optimistic TM-Likely TP-Pessimistic TE-Expected (Derived by PERT)Remember – tasks 3, 4 and 7 are concurrent and do not add to the

timeline

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PERT Step 3PERT Step 3– Durations– DurationsAfter generating estimates using the formula, the table might look After generating estimates using the formula, the table might look

like thislike thisCRITICAL PATH TASKS (Longest Duration)

TASK TO TL TP TE SD V1 11 33 55 33 .67.67 .44.442 22 44 77 4.174.17 .83.83 .69.695 11 33 66 3.173.17 .83.83 .69.696 11 33 55 33 .67.67 .44.448 11 22 44 2.172.17 .5.5 .25.25

TOTAL 77 1515 2828 15.615.6 3.53.5 2.512.51OTHER PROJECT TASKS

TASK TO TL TP TE SD V3 .5.5 11 33 1.251.25 .42.42 .17.174 .5.5 11 33 1.251.25 .42.42 .17.177 .5.5 11 33 1.251.25 .42.42 .17.17

TOTAL 1.51.5 33 99 3.753.75 1.261.26 .51.51

TO-Optimistic TM-Likely TP-Pessimistic TE-Expected (Derived by PERT)SD=Standard Deviation V=Variance

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PERT Step 4 PERT Step 4 – Dates– Dates

CRITICAL PATH TASKS (Longest Duration)TASK TO TL TP TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V

1 11 33 55 33 00 33 00 33 00 .67.67 .444.4442 22 44 77 4.174.17 33 7.177.17 33 7.177.17 00 .83.83 .694.6945 11 33 66 3.173.17 77 10.110.1

7777 10.1710.17 00 .83.83 .694.694

6 11 33 55 33 1010 1313 1010 1313 00 .67.67 .444.4448 11 22 44 2.172.17 1313 15.115.1

771313 15.1715.17 00 .5.5 .254.254

TOTAL 77 1515 2828 15.5115.51 3.53.5 2.5302.530OTHER PROJECT TASKS

TASK TO TL TP TE ES EF LS LF FLOAT SD V3 .5.5 11 33 1.251.25 00 1.251.25 33 4.254.25 33 .42.42 .17.174 .5.5 11 33 1.251.25 00 1.251.25 33 4.254.25 33 .42.42 .17.177 .5.5 11 33 1.251.25 1.251.25 2.502.50 4.254.25 5.505.50 33 .42.42 .17.17

TOTAL 1.51.5 33 99 3.753.75 1.261.26 .51.51ES=Earliest Start EF= Earliest Finish LS=Latest Start LF=Latest Finish

For each task, determine the latest allowable time for moving to the next task

The difference between latest time and expected time is called slack time

Tasks with zero slack time are on the critical path

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PERT Step 5 PERT Step 5 – – ProbabilitiesProbabilities

Determine Determine probabilityprobability of meeting a date by using the table data of meeting a date by using the table data Denote the sum of all expected durations on the critical path as Denote the sum of all expected durations on the critical path as SS Denote the sum of all variances on the critical path as Denote the sum of all variances on the critical path as VV Select a desired completion time, denote this as Select a desired completion time, denote this as DD COMPUTECOMPUTE: : (D-S)/square root (V) = Z(D-S)/square root (V) = Z ( the number of std. deviations ( the number of std. deviations

that the due date is away from the expected date))that the due date is away from the expected date)) Enter a standard normal table to find a probability that Enter a standard normal table to find a probability that

corresponds with Z corresponds with Z

For our project, figure a probability based on the most likely time, For our project, figure a probability based on the most likely time, 15 days: (15-15.51)/square root(2.53) = (15-15.51)/1.59=-.3207 (Z)15 days: (15-15.51)/square root(2.53) = (15-15.51)/1.59=-.3207 (Z)

A corresponding probability is 37.7% (Rounded)A corresponding probability is 37.7% (Rounded) This process can be repeated for any date desiredThis process can be repeated for any date desired

21 1exp(22

z

P Z z Z dZ

Manually computing probability using data compiled in your table

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PERT Step 5 PERT Step 5 – Probabilities – Probabilities Computing probability in Excel using data

compiled in your table

Microsoft Excel has normal distribution Microsoft Excel has normal distribution functions built in and can compute functions built in and can compute PERT probabilitiesPERT probabilities

By creating a table as a spreadsheet, By creating a table as a spreadsheet, the addition of a few simple formulae the addition of a few simple formulae will do the rest of the workwill do the rest of the work

Create a table as a template that can Create a table as a template that can be used over and over again – simply be used over and over again – simply change the inputchange the input