Persson HUVAdagen2011

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Flood Hazard Estimation Methods for Dam Safety – phase 1 Date 2011-12-06 Fredrik Persson

description

flood hazard

Transcript of Persson HUVAdagen2011

  • Flood Hazard Estimation Methodsfor Dam Safety phase 1

    Date 2011-12-06Fredrik Persson

  • Center for Energy Advancement through Technological Innovation - CEATI

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    Dam Safety

    CEATI International Inc. brings electrical utility industry professionals together, through focused interest groups and collaborative projects, to identify and address technical issues that are critical to their organizations. Participants can undertake projects that respond to their strategic goals at a fraction of the cost of doing so independently. The need for international breadth and inter-industry applicability in technology development is addressed through a practical, dynamic and cost effective program.

  • Dam Safety Interest Group - DSIG

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    Dam Safety

    The Dam Safety Interest Group (DSIG) is composed of dam owners who jointly sponsor research & development projects designed to help assess and improve the safety of dams.

    Today, the DSIG is represented internationally by participants from Canada, the United States, Australia, Sweden, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany.

    Number of companies/organizations 43

  • Content

    Background Scope Organization Time-schedule Deadlines ?

    Dam Safety

  • Background

    A plethora of approaches now exist, each with its perceived advantages and disadvantages, and hence a wide diversity of practice exists.

    An unbiased and structured review of the available and evolving methods, how and why they are used in across the world and, importantly, how they perform are addressed by the dam owners.

    Dam Safety

  • Scope of the study

    The scope of the work to be performed includes:

    1. Analysis of the regulatory framework on flood hazard around the world (WP1) 2. Analysis of existing flood hazard estimation approaches (WP2)

    3. Application of the different approaches to common case studies (WP3)

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  • Scope of the study (phase 1)

    Task 1 Analysis of the regulatory framework on flood hazard around the world: The aim of this task is toprovide an overview of the regulatory frameworks concerning flood hazard estimation for dam safety.

    Emphasis should be placed on Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. If possible, this shouldprovide a global perspective.

    Dam Safety

  • This task will provide an overview of the regulatory framework concerning flood hazard estimation for dam safety, including a review of :

    i. Contextii. Standard or risk-informediii. Effectiveness in delivering dam safetyiv. The approach to determining the flood hazardv. Emerging trends in regulationvi. Approach to considering climate changevii. Rationale for public safety and risk reduction expenditure

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    Task 1

  • Scope of the study (phase 1)Task 2 - Analysis of existing flood hazard estimation

    approaches: The aim of this task is to provide an overview of various approaches both in practical applications and in scientific literature for flood hazard estimation for dam safety. All known methods should be listed, described and compared while highlighting positive and negative attributes as well as shortcomings.

    The methods to be considered are (but not limited to): Classical Flood Frequency Analysis, MultifractalFlood Frequency Analysis, Regional Flood Frequency Analysis, PMP/PMF (Probable Maximum Precipitation/ Probable Maximum Flood), and Rainfall Runoff simulation methods.

    Dam Safety

  • A range of methods will be listed. Each will be summarized and compared using a range of criteria that will differentiate the techniques, including:

    i. Mathematical basisii. Climate assumptioniii. Data demands / needsiv. Applicabilityv. Capable of supporting standard based approaches, risk-

    informed or bothvi. Degree of modeller skillvii. Computational resources requiredviii. Use of historical data and the degree of confidence in the

    approachix. Representation of uncertainty

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    Task 2

  • OrganizationCEATIChris HayesGus TjoumasKristin Matheson

    Project Sponsor RepresentativesZoran Micovic, BC HydroTammy Hartung, BrookfieldPietro Bernardara, EDFFredrik Persson, ElforskMathurin Daynou, Hydro QuebecAndy Zielinski, OPGDavid Bowling, TVAOnly sponsor: Transalta, Manitoba Hydro & Saskpower (Canada)

    Dam Safety

  • Organization

    Consultants RepresentativesProject leader: Paul Sayers, Sayers and Partners Dr David Bowles, RAC Engineers & Economists, USA Dr Harvey Rodda, Hydro-GIS Ltd, UK Dr Chris Gippel, Fluvial Systems Pty Ltd, Australia Dr Rory Nathan, Australia Dr Huang, Institute of Water and Hydraulic Research, China Dr Ed Tomlinson, Applied Weather Associates, USA Dr Max Little, Systems Analysis, Modelling and Prediction Group, UK

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  • Time schedule

  • Deadlines

    13/9-2012 Report phase 1 (Task 1 & 2)

    Fall meeting Decision on phase 2 (Task 3)

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  • Dam Safety

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    Flood Hazard Estimation Methodsfor Dam Safety phase 1Center for Energy Advancement through Technological Innovation - CEATI Dam Safety Interest Group - DSIGContentBackgroundScope of the studyScope of the study (phase 1)Bildnummer 8Scope of the study (phase 1)Bildnummer 10OrganizationOrganizationTime scheduleDeadlines???