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AUGUST 2015 | PG 1

PERSPECTIVES | AUGUST 2015

OPTIMISTIC YET WARY

After a shaky start to the year, the U.S. economy appears to have ended the second quarter on more stable footing. Economic activity has been expanding moderately and the housing market continues its upward trajectory. Households are earning more; consequently, consumers are feeling more secure as home and auto purchases remain strong. Inflation is in check, and no recession is in sight.

But crises in Greece, China and Puerto Rico remind us there are a lot of potential risks facing our economy and they can be scattered across the globe. In China, stock prices were dropping steeply before the government stepped

in with some unusual control methods. In Greece, voters decided to reject a proposed bailout plan from their creditors, yet within a week’s time, their own government put forth conditions more severe than the ones rejected by its citizens. And within our own territory, the Governor of Puerto Rico announced the commonwealth could not pay its debts.

While these three risks dominated headlines during the quarter, we don’t believe they will be a hindrance to continued slow and steady global economic growth.

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PUTTING IT ALLTOGETHER P. 11

PERSPECTIVESIN A FLASH P. 2

POLITICALPERSPECTIVES P. 10

PERSPECTIVES IN A FLASH

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MARKET PERSPECTIVESMoving from Macro to Micro: With some major macro events seemingly in the rearview mirror, investors can put more focus on corporate fundamentals and earnings – the micro picture. Fed Watch: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate later this year, a move indicative of their confidence in the strength of our economy.

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVESFor Those of You Keeping Score: Although economic recovery has been a slow process, the overall health of the economy continues to improve and is far from recession territory. In fact, nearly all key economic-data indicators are positive.

Output, Income and Wealth: After contracting slightly in the first quarter, the economy bounced back thanks largely to a growing housing market. The correlating rise in home prices plus record-low interest rates and a five-year bull market have buoyed household net worth nationwide.

The Labor Market Continues to Lag: Unlike other sectors of the economy, the labor market is experiencing minimal growth at best. Particularly troubling are the continued exodus of workers from the labor force and stagnant wages.

A Trio of Global Risks: Greece slipped deeper into debt, giving rise to global interest in the potential effects on the world economy. Puerto Rico’s own headline-making debt crisis is causing municipal bond funds to reduce exposure to Puerto Rican holdings. Meanwhile, extreme stock-market volatility in China prompted a state-led intervention limiting trading.

POLITICAL PERSPECTIVESLooking Forward: Between the expected Fed rate hike, anticipated budget brawl and ongoing presidential candidate discourse, Washington will be in the spotlight this fall. One trend flying under the radar, however, is that federal spending has increased. This signals that fiscal policy is now a tailwind rather than a headwind for the macro economy.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHERImplications for the United States: In spite of unstable foreign economies and a likely increase in the Fed Funds rate, our nation remains well-positioned to continue its economic recovery.

Interested in what’s happening, but prefer not to get into the nitty-gritty details? Here’s what you need to know about the most recent quarter and where the markets and economy stand now.

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MARKET PERSPECTIVES

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MOVING FROM MACRO TO MICRO The second quarter of 2015 saw a handful of global macro events driving market performance, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) looming rate decision, Greece’s debt negotiations and China’s stock market and economy all front and center. During the period, the S&P 500 was essentially flat – gaining just +0.28% – and the MSCI

EAFE, which tracks developed international markets, was only slightly ahead with a +0.62% gain. That’s not to say there wasn’t a good deal of back-and-forth market action during the quarter, although in the end, things wrapped up right where they began. The economic and market conditions that brought about our March 2015 reallocation largely remained in play during the second quarter, and as such, we did not make any broad allocation adjustments.

As we – hopefully – move past the situation in Greece and adjust to slowing growth in China, developed equity markets should be able to again focus on the micro picture, including items like corporate earnings and company fundamentals. The short-term earnings outlook is less than positive – estimates for the second-quarter corporate-earnings season project the first year-over-year decline in earnings since the third quarter of 2012. However, overall results are being dragged down by the energy sector. If you excluded energy-sector earnings – which are projected to drop by as much as 50% year-over-year thanks to the collapse in oil prices – the overall earnings growth rate would likely jump into positive territory.

Looking toward the latter half of 2015, projections indicate improvement and analysts anticipate operating earnings for S&P 500 companies will grow in the third and fourth quarters. Profit margins remain solid and corporate balance sheets are as healthy as they have been in quite some time. In fact, the debt-to-equity ratio for S&P 500 companies now sits at 105%, well below the long-term average of 161%. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean wildly higher stock prices, as we are in the later stages of a multi-year rally. We expect a market where we will continue to grind our way higher, which will require discipline and patience.

Source: The Research Center, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s

“The economic and market conditions that brought about our March 2015 reallocation largely remained in play

during the second quarter, and as such, we did not make any broad

allocation adjustments.”

Macro Headlines Driving the Market

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MARKET PERSPECTIVES

FED WATCH

With sluggish wage growth and a strong dollar keeping the price of imports in check, there is little upward pressure on inflation currently. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the prices paid at retail stores, rose +0.4% in May. Much of this increase was due to rising gasoline prices. If volatile food and energy prices are excluded, the index rose only +0.1%. For the 12 months ending in May, the all-items index was unchanged, while the index excluding food and energy rose +1.7%.

Monetary policy decisions have dominated financial discussions across the globe for the last few years, and it’s been the same story here in the United States. As soon as the Fed stopped purchasing assets, everyone turned their attention toward the first rate hike. Despite inflation continuing to run below the Fed’s 2% target and little evidence of a tightening labor market, it appears that this fall the Fed will do something it has not done since the summer of 2006 – increase the short-term interest rate known as the Fed Funds rate.

Since 2008, the Fed Funds rate has been set to near zero. Despite the flare-up of international economic issues and some weaker-than-anticipated U.S. data, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has indicated a 2015 rate hike remains on the table. For now, the only real question is whether the first rate hike will occur in September or December, and as Fed officials like to say, that decision will be “data dependent.” Any rate increase this autumn will probably be small, but the days of zero-interest-rate policy should be over soon.

With that said, one Fed rate hike does not signal the end of the economic expansion, nor will it bring about a recession or bear market. In fact, it’s a positive signal that the committee feels the U.S. economy is on solid-enough ground to weather the normalization of interest rates. Comparing short- and long-term interest rates is one part of the toolbox used by economists to forecast recessions. As the chart illustrates, the last two recessions were preceded by short-term rates jumping above long-term rates (points above 0% indicate long-term rates higher than short-term rates; points below 0% indicate short-term rates higher than long-term rates). This happens when expectations for future growth are muted and there is a belief that longer-term rates will continue to fall. As the Fed begins to raise its key funds rate this time around, the economic outlook for the United States is largely positive. As such, long-term yields remain well above short-term in anticipation of continued growth and higher rates in the future. It will take more than one or two months of modest rate hikes from the Fed to change the interest-rate dynamic or reduce the outlook on economic growth.

Yield Curve Doesn’t Point Towards Recession

Source: The Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVESMARKET PERSPECTIVES

FOR THOSE OF YOU KEEPING SCORE

In our last issue of Perspectives, we discussed the “mixed bag” of economic data here in the United States. That story continues to play out. Although the recovery has been slow and laboring, the overall health of the U.S. economy remains far from recession territory. Above is a rundown of commonly referenced economic data points used to define the health of an economy and to forecast the potential for recession.

OUTPUT, INCOME AND WEALTH

For the first three months of 2015, the economy contracted slightly due to a harsh winter and a labor dispute at U.S. ports. But since then, the economy has shaken off the winter blues and rebounded nicely. American households are seeing solid gains in personal income and consumer spending, with real after-tax personal income increasing +0.5% and consumer spending rising sharply in May.

The housing market continues to grow at a comfortable pace. According to the National

Association of Realtors, existing-home sales in May were +9.2% higher than they were one year ago, fueled by rising demand from first-time buyers. Additionally, mortgage applications rose considerably in the first half of the year. Since people are buying homes faster than new homes can be built, inventories of homes for sale remain low and prices are rising. The median sales price of an existing home sold during the first quarter was $205,200, with the Case-Shiller® Home Price Index confirming the continued rise in prices. The pace of the price appreciation has slowed some in recent months, but the current rate of price growth appears reasonable and sustainable.

Record-low interest rates, a five-year bull market in stocks and steadily rising home prices have helped to bolster Americans’ personal balance sheets. In the first quarter of this year, household net worth, defined as a household’s assets minus liabilities, rose to $84.9 trillion – up from $80.3 trillion in the first quarter of last year, according to the Federal Reserve. The average household is now much better off than in 2009, and American households are $27 trillion dollars wealthier than just five years ago.

Recession Scorecard:

Long-term rates increased during the quarter and remain well above short-term rates

Energy prices continue to keep headline inflation low and the core personal consumption expenditures price index remains below 2%

Down from its late 2014 peak but still expansionary and trending up in May and June

Average weekly hours of all private employees have held steady for the past few years, just below their pre-Great-Recession figures

Total new privately owned housings starts remain low from a historical standpoint but have been trending up over the last few years

Like manufacturing, industrial capacity utilization is below its 2014 peak, but June’s figures ticked up and remain solid at an overall level

Yield Curve

Capacity Utilization

Inflation

Manufacturing

Positive

Average Weekly Hours

Housing Starts

Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

Neutral

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ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

LABOR MARKET CONTINUES TO LAG

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the one big segment of the economy that continues to lag is the labor market. In the most recent jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the nation added 233,000 new jobs in June and the headline unemployment rate declined from 5.5% to 5.3%. While these are decent numbers, it is hard to get excited about yet another month of modest job growth. In particular, for the last couple of years we have been waiting for robust employment growth to entice those potential workers who had left the job market to re-enter the labor force.

In fact, just the opposite happened, as 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June. Hence the labor-force participation rate – the share of working-age adults who either hold a job or are looking for work – fell to 62.6%. As the chart shows, that key measure has now fallen to its lowest level since 1977. A recent paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tackled the issue of the declining participation rate, challenging the notion that the decline is entirely due to changing demographics as “Baby Boomers” continue moving into retirement. After looking at labor markets in eight developed nations with similarly changing demographics, the United States was the only nation experiencing a decline in the aggregate labor-force participation rate. Compared to the other countries, the United States has seen a larger-than-average decline in the number of prime-age (25 to 54 years old) males in the labor force, and the percentage of prime-age females in the labor force has declined slightly over the last decade.

As further evidence of the lagging labor market, despite the increase in the number of people employed and the shrinking pool of potential workers, there remains scant evidence of any dramatic upward pressure on wages. Average hourly earnings remained unchanged at $24.95. Over the last 12 months, wages are up only +2%. It is remarkable that even six years into the recovery, there is still considerable slack in the labor market.

A TRIO OF GLOBAL RISKS

Around the world, the percentage of countries with manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) readings in contraction territory declined in the second quarter, falling from an April peak of 52% to a June low of 31%. With fewer countries reporting reduced business activity in the manufacturing sector, this is positive news for the global economic recovery. The possibility for improved international economic growth is one of the reasons we increased our allocation to developed international stocks in March. However, a number of risks remain in the global landscape and continue to attract our attention. We highlight our three main concerns on the following pages.

Source: The Research Center, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

“...it is hard to get excited about yet

another month of modest

job growth.”

Mixed Messages From Labor Market

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Greece – Déjà vu All Over Again

As we write this, the Greek Parliament has passed the austerity measures proposed by Prime Minister Tsipras – measures that were stricter than the ones voted down by Greece’s

citizens in the July 5 referendum. Since the situation in Greece is very fluid and at times it can be hard to see where this is all going, it may be helpful to take a look back at how it came about.

From the mid-1990s until 2009, successive Greek governments consistently spent more than they collected in tax revenues and then used murky reports to obscure the size of the ensuing deficits. In the fall of 2009, the government released a set of revised deficit estimates that were much larger than those reported earlier.

In response to this pattern of hidden and reckless spending, Greece’s creditors lost confidence and thus imposed sharply higher borrowing costs on the Greek government. It soon became obvious that Greece, under its current taxing and spending patterns, could not repay its debts. A sovereign debt crisis then erupted in Europe as banks and other lenders worried that if Greece could default, so might the indebted Portugal, Italy and/or Spain.

In exchange for increasing taxes and reducing spending, the Greek government accepted two bailouts: one in 2010 and another in 2012. No debt was forgiven in either bailout. The Greeks did actually cut their deficits substantially but their economy tanked and their government’s ability to repay these debts never improved. In January 2015, with unemployment exceeding 25% for years, the Greek public voted for a new left-wing government led by

Alexis Tspiras. The Tsipras government’s plan has been to cut taxes, increase spending and renegotiate the terms of its loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and a European bailout fund. But the IMF and ECB have been reluctant to grant substantial Greek concessions for fear other countries that had to make similar adjustments, such as Portugal, Italy and Spain, will also insist on concessions.

Predicting exactly how this drama will end is a fool’s errand, but it is hard to see how Greece can avoid a very sharp recession. Banks recently reopened after being closed for three weeks, and a daily withdrawal cap remains in place. Tax collection could dry up, and without any ability to borrow, so will government spending. At some point Greece may exit the euro (an event you may have heard termed as “the Grexit”). All in all, it will be many months before the Greek economy begins to stabilize.

Puerto Rico – A More Local Debt Crisis

Though overshadowed in the financial press by the situation in Greece, Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro García Padilla made

headlines of his own in late June when he announced that the island’s $72 billion of debt “is not payable.” This was not a complete surprise to the investment community, as Puerto Rico’s fiscal problems have been building for over a decade. Hampered by a costly business climate and a bloated public sector, the U.S. territory’s government has been borrowing steadily, while at the same time, output has contracted at a rate of roughly 1% per year. This combination of a shrinking economy and continued borrowing has led the island’s debt to climb to 70% of economic

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ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

output – a ratio more than triple that of the next-highest state.

Who lent Puerto Rico all this money? Puerto Rican bonds are exempt from all state taxes; thus many bond funds that focus on earning tax-exempt income bought them originally. However, since investors have recognized Puerto Rico’s fiscal problems, most of these bonds now are in the hands of hedge funds and private investors who presumably understood the risks.

The municipal bond funds recommended by the Research Center have a minimal amount of exposure to Puerto Rican bonds, and most have been reducing their Puerto Rican holdings given the breakdown in credit quality. In the world of mutual funds, Oppenheimer and Franklin are among the largest holders of Puerto Rican municipal bonds, and we do not use any of their municipal-bond products in client accounts.

While Puerto Rico is blessed with beautiful beaches and a delightful Caribbean climate, it faces a number of unique challenges. Previously we mentioned that the overall U.S. labor-force participation rate is currently 62.6%. Yet in Puerto Rico, the participation rate is a mere 40%. One of the primary drivers behind this low participation rate is that the U.S. federal minimum wage is equivalent to 77% of per capita income on the island, compared to 28% on the mainland. Further, the U.S. welfare system provides a strong disincentive for unemployed workers to actively seek employment; according to one study, a Puerto Rican household of three eligible for food stamps, AFDC, Medicaid and utility subsidies could receive over $600 more

per month in benefits than if they worked fulltime earning minimum wage.

To grow the Puerto Rican economy, both the local and the federal governments must remove the obstacles that discourage work and raise the cost of doing business on the island.

China – Trying to Stop the Bleeding

Given its size and its importance in the global economic landscape, China remains our greatest concern as far as emerging economies go. Slowing economic

growth in the Chinese nation and the ensuing impact on peripheral emerging-market economies were among the major reasons we exited the asset class in July 2013, moving the allocation into developed international equities instead. Developed international stocks have outperformed their emerging-market counterparts by +2.5% in 2015.

That’s not to say that some Chinese investors haven’t enjoyed a substantial run-up over the last year. Last summer, China’s official media stated that stocks were cheap and investors, particularly those in China’s growing middle class, responded. Borrowing heavily, often at high interest rates, these new investors helped drive up the Shanghai Composite Index an astounding +150% from the first of July last year to mid-June of this year. Companies responded by flooding the market with a wave of new public offerings. Of course, if 150% returns sound too good to be true, they probably are. Over the course of just three weeks in late June and early July of this year, the Chinese market dropped -28%, erasing over $2 trillion in value.

“This combination of a shrinking

economy and continued borrowing

has led the island’s debt to climb...”

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This wild ride has rattled the nerves of China’s investment community. China is still, in many ways, a planned economy in which the government retains considerable control over most domestic markets. Consequently, many who invested with borrowed money expected the government to manage the market to generate steady, consistent gains. However, now that stock prices have plunged, these aggressive investors are getting wiped out.

The Chinese government has moved to stabilize the market and put a floor under falling stock prices. China’s central bank cut lending rates for the fourth time since November. The authorities have also tried

to restrict people’s ability to buy stocks with borrowed money and endorsed a plan for the country’s largest brokerage funds to purchase shares. Furthermore, the government has suspended all initial public offerings for the time being. But these are just short-term fixes. In the long run, China must implement market reforms that allow ordinary Chinese investors greater access to foreign stock markets. Such reforms would put China’s equity markets on sounder footing and help moderate price swings. In the meantime, Chinese authorities and investors are learning there are limits to how much control even the strongest government really has in managing financial-market booms and busts.

Source: The Research Center, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Shanghai Stock Exchanges

China’s Been on a Roller Coaster, While Developed Markets are Riding a Carousel

POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES

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THE VIEW FROM D.C.

Content provided by Greg Valliere, Potomac Research Group (PRG). PRG is an independent research firm that provides Washington policy analysis to institutional investors and private equity firms. PRG’s evaluation of federal legislative activities and regulatory and Federal Reserve policies helps clients determine Washington’s impact on industry and the economy. The views and opinions here are those of PRG. Their views do not necessarily reflect the official policy or views of The Mutual Fund Store, its management or its employees.

As we head into the fall, we await major activity for both monetary and fiscal policy – from the Fed’s first rate hike to budget debates, Washington will be in the spotlight. Additionally, the GOP debates will be front and center as we move into the third quarter.

A budget brawl is a guarantee this fall, although we don’t think it is likely that a dispute over domestic spending will actually lead to a government shutdown on Oct.1. Democrats want some extra spending for domestic programs if the Pentagon, as expected, gets an extra $38 billion in the 2016 fiscal year and Republicans are balking. This fight could take months to resolve; a Continuing Resolution is likely on Oct. 1 and it could be Christmas Eve before a deal gets finalized.

An ironic trend we noticed this spring is the Republican Congress is spending more money, a pattern that will likely intensify in the coming months. This clear shift in the fiscal landscape signals to us that the phenomenal progress in reducing deficits is just about over. Red ink this year and next should stay roughly steady at about 2.3% of GDP – a level that won’t worry the bond market – largely because federal receipts continue an amazing trend up. Perhaps

the biggest implication is that fiscal policy no longer is a headwind for the macro economy, as it was earlier this decade. Now, we would argue that fiscal policy is a tailwind for the macro economy, which is still another reason why GDP should improve. While this may be good news now, the long-term implication is ominous. Considering there will be no tax increases for the next couple of years, the only hope on deficits is much stronger GDP growth than expected, which we believe is a shaky bet.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Hillary Clinton should breeze by the bickering Republicans, but there are plenty of warning signs for her – especially her weak polls in swing states. The GOP nomination is worth winning, which is why 16 candidates are now running. While Donald Trump is enjoying his time in the spotlight, there is virtually no chance that he will be the nominee.

The three names to watch are: Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Rubio is certainly in the top tier but we are suspicious that he is not quite ready for the presidency. Bush – who we’ve had in second place for most of the summer so far – is in a great place for this long-distance marathon, with a ton of money to burn. We think the antipathy toward him in the base will subside and that he will be a pleasant surprise in the debates. Lastly, we believe that Walker is currently the frontrunner – both a blessing and a curse. He benefits from the perception in the party that he could unite all wings, that he’s the favorite to win Iowa and that he connects with the middle class. We look forward to seeing how the debates shake things up.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHERPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES

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Our Market & Economic Outlook Influences Our Decision Making

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

So what does the trio of global risks mean for the United States? The most likely answer: not much. But how these crises ultimately are resolved depends on sequences of political decisions that will be made behind closed doors and whose outcomes are difficult to predict.

In the five years since the European sovereign debt crisis, U.S. and European banks have shed much of their Greek-debt holdings, so any direct impact from a Greek default will be small. But if the Greek experience inspires other countries to relax their fiscal discipline and threatens the stability of the euro, things could get ugly fast.

As we write this, President Obama has stated he has no intention of bailing out Puerto Rico. Unlike U.S. cities, Puerto Rico cannot declare bankruptcy. So how will this crisis be resolved? Typically in such situations, a deal gets cut in which the government (in this case, both the Puerto Rican and the federal governments) agrees to a set of reforms to ensure higher tax revenue in the future; in exchange, the bond holders agree to accept something less than every penny they were promised. Debt restructurings are always contentious and how much each side has to give is up for negotiation. We will continue to wait and watch.

As China’s financial system is, by and large, closed to the outside world, any direct impact to the United States will be small. But given the nation’s trading relationships, if their stock-market meltdown accelerates the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the impact will be felt worldwide.

With where the United States stands on the “Recession Scorecard,” the most likely outcome is that our economy will weather the global risks as well as the Fed liftoff, soldiering on to continue its recovery.

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Published quarterly by The Research Center, the research arm of The Mutual Fund Store®. The “Research Center,” as referenced throughout this publication, is The Mutual Fund Research Center, LLC.

The Research Center is an SEC-registered investment adviser and provides mutual fund research and analysis to The Mutual Fund Store franchise and affiliated entities and to TMFS Advisory Services, LLC. The research and analysis provided is non-discretionary and is primarily mutual fund recommendations, asset allocation models, and market and economic research and data. All franchise and affiliated Mutual Fund Stores receive the same information. Each Mutual Fund Store separately implements the recommendations and information provided on a discretionary basis for each of its clients, taking into consideration each client’s circumstances and investment objectives. Information provided to TMFS Advisory Services is specific to the Retirement Paycheck® service.

This issue shows data on select financial market indexes. Index returns are provided as a benchmark and are not illustrative of any particular investment. An investment cannot be made in an index. Index returns are calculated as a total return with dividends and capital gains reinvested unless otherwise noted. No index reflects the transaction or management fees investors would incur if investing in those stocks or a security that replicates the index’s holdings. Asset allocation models recommended by The Research Center may include allocations to mutual funds that invest in various asset classes, including asset classes other than the ones discussed in this issue. Your local Store advisor considers several factors when providing your account with advisory services, such as your personal investment objectives, your tolerance for risk and any instructions you have given the advisor. Those factors may influence how the asset allocation recommendations are utilized for your account. Thus, the asset classes discussed in this issue of Perspectives may or may not be the same asset classes utilized in your portfolio.

This report is published solely to provide information and perspective and should not be considered to be investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific mutual funds or securities. Opinions and estimates constitute our best judgment as of the date this material was prepared, are subject to change without notice due to changing market and economic conditions, and may differ from opinions expressed by other individuals or business areas or offices within The Mutual Fund Store or The Research Center. We believe information obtained from third-party sources is reliable, but neither The Research Center, nor The Mutual Fund Store franchise and affiliated entities, can guarantee its accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Publication date of this issue – Aug. 3, 2015