Brazil 2016: Economic perspectives & Opportunities during the crisis
Perspectives on growth opportunities · Perspectives on growth opportunities Emerging European wind...
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Perspectives on growth opportunities Emerging European wind power markets Iván Pineda Research Officer The European Wind Energy Association
The Switch Event Vaasa, Finland 13, March, 2013
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What is the European Wind Energy Association?
EWEA is the voice of the wind industry in Europe Activities include: • Researching the latest developments in the wind sector • Coordinating EC-funded projects • Disseminating high quality, up-to-date information • Raising awareness of the benefits of wind power • Organising Europe’s premier wind energy events
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More than 600 members from almost 60 countries
• Manufacturers with a leading share of the global wind power market
• Component suppliers • Research institutes • National wind and renewable associations • Developers • Electricity providers • Finance and insurance companies • Consultants • Contractors
This combined strength makes EWEA the world’s largest and powerful wind energy network www.ewea.org/membership
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Members include the following leading players:
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New installed power capacity and decommissioned power capacity in MW in 2012
16,750
11,566 10,535
3,065
1,338 424 50 22 5
833 6.600 6 0
-207
-5,495 -5,441
-43 -158
0
-1,205
0 0
-3,204
0
6000
1000
4000
9000
14000
19000
New
Decommissioned
PV Wind Gas Coal Bio mass
Hydro Waste Nuclear Geothermal
CSP Fuel oil Wave and Tidal
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Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2012 (cumulative, MW)
IRELAND 1,738 UNITED
KINGDOM 8,445
NETHERLANDS 2,391
GERMANY 31,308
BELGIUM 1,375
FRANCE 7,564
SPAIN 22,796
LUXEMBOURG 44
CZECH REPUBLIC
260
NORWAY 703
SWEDEN 3,745
FINLAND 288
POLAND 2,497
AUSTRIA 1,378 SWITZERLAND
50
ITALY 8,144
SLOVENIA 0 CROATIA
180
HUNGARY 329
SLOVAKIA 3
FYROM 0
ROMANIA 1,905
BULGARIA 684
GREECE 1,749
UKRAINE 276
LITHUANIA 225
LATVIA 68
ESTONIA 269
TURKEY 2,312
FAROE ISLANDS 4
PORTUGAL 4,525
CYPRUS 147
MALTA 0
European Union: 106,040 MW Candidate countries: 2,492 MW EFTA: 753 MW Total Europe: 109,581 MW
DENMARK 4,162
RUSSIA 16
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Total installed wind power capacity in the EU 12 and the EU 15
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I. The wind energy market Total wind installed capacity in EU-12 end 2005 & end 2011
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Share of installed wind energy capacity in EU newer Member States, end 2011
Poland, 1616
Romania, 921
Bulgaria, 607
Hungary, 329
Czech Republic, 217
Lithuania, 179
Estonia, 160 Cyprus, 134
Latvia, 31 Slovakia, 3
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Share of annual wind energy installations, first wave emerging markets, other emerging markets and EU-15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Other emerging markets 29 42 35 23 102 162 80 First wave emerging markets 115 159 225 338 628 1095 1111 EU-15 6400 7054 8700 8117 9646 8311 8364
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Wind installed capacity according to the NREAPs and 2012-2020 increase
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Cumulative installed wind power capacity in non-EU countries
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Emerging markets at glance
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland Net annual capacity additions, NREAP and real (MW)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 110 100 100 100 90 390 380 360 360 340 Real 51 2 89
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
MW
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland 5/7 Onshore: net annual capacity additions, NREAP and real (MW)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 110 100 100 100 90 390 380 360 360 340 Real 51 2 89
0
50
100
150
200
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300
350
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MW
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland 6/7 Offshore: net annual capacity addition, NREAP and real (MW)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP Real 2 0 0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
MW
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland Cumulative installations, NREAP and real (MW)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 170 280 380 480 580 670 1,060 1,440 1,800 2,160 2,500 Real 82 195 199 288
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
MW
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland Onshore: cumulative installations, NREAP and Real (MW)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 170 280 380 480 580 670 1,060 1,440 1,800 2,160 2,500 Real 82 169 173 262
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
MW
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland Offshore: cumulative installations, NREAP and Real (MW)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP Real 0 26 26 26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MW
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Wind installations and NREAP targets
Finland Percentage of 2020 NREAP target achieved at end 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2020
Difference
Actual Installed
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Finnish FiT
• The single biggest reason for the booming of the Finnish wind power is the feed-in-tariff system that was implemented in spring 2011
• € 83.5 per MWh for the 12 years after the project has been accepted into the system. This promise is valid until the capacity of 2,500 MW is reached.
• From Autumn 2013, the turbines can be accepted to the system just before the investment decision is done, right after the project has gone through the permitting process and has got a building permit
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Conclusions • A stable legal framework is critical to
further develop wind industry. • Stability of the countries’ regulatory
regimes and support mechanisms are key criteria for obtaining financing.
• National governments need to ensure that support mechanisms are in line with internal market rules
• Financing opportunities are available through commercial banks or EU funds
• Availability of grid capacity is an important risk factor.
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Conclusions • More information on emerging markets
can be found in EWEA report:
• Power market • Financing
• Supply Chain • Regulatory
framework
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Thank you More information @
http://www.ewea.org/publications/reports
www.ewea.org EWEA 80 RUE D’ARLON B-1040 BRUSSELS
T: +32 2 213 1811 F: +32 2 213 1890 E: [email protected]
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Wind Finance requirements and Risks identified by Commercial banks
Requirements Risks Developer with track record Legal changes Fully developed project Regulatory risks Fulfilling equity requirements Lack of approval/autorisation Use of reliable technology Corruption State of the art wind turbines Currency risks Reliable regulatory framework Price risks Secured tariffs Grid risks
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Drive train topologies trends - Globally
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Generator topologies trends - globally
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Generator topologies trends - Regionally
Generator, gearbox and reliability
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Wind Turbine components – Converters
• The converter represents the link between the electricity generation the wind turbine and the grid.
• Two main designs for converters, directly linked with the type of generators:
stat
or
rotor
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Wind turbine components – converters
• Trends
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Top ten countries 2010 Vs. 2011