Perspectives on Africa’s Perspectives on Africa’s DevelopmentDevelopment

.

:focus on Zambia and Japan

Katsumi HIRANO

Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)

GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa (current dollars)The volume of Africa’s GDP is correlated withresources’ price (coefficient: 0.902)

(billion $)

1980

2002

($)

Total GDP ofSub-Saharan Africa

Oil price

Zambia’s GDP (current dollar)correlation coefficient: 0.945

Zambia’s GDP

Metal index

(billion $) ($)

FDI/GDP ratioNow Africa has got relatively much FDI

Sub-Saharan Africa

China

Zambia

Importers from Africa

France UKGermany

Japan

US

China

(billion $)

Exporters to Africa

0

10

20

30

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

(billion $)

France

UK

Germany

Japan

US

China

Japan’s trade with Africapercentages in the total export and import

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

export

import

Trade with individual African countries (2007)

Japanese importof automobiles

Japanese import of platinum

Japanese exportof automobiles

Main items in our trade with AfricaBig presence of automobile industry(million $)

Japanese FDI toward Africaexpanding for natural resources($ million)

To Africa

To South Africa 　

Japan has found ‘national interest’ in Africa • Resource security

• To share natural resources with growing China

• To establish sustainable relationship between resource-rich Africa and Asian manufacturing

• As a urgent mission, to secure second suppliers of rare metals, especially rare earth elements next to China and South AfricaIf those be found in Zambia…

JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals Corporation)

• Botswana Geologic Remote Sensing Centre, Lobatse

• MOUs and Investment Agreements with SADC countries

• F/S support for infrastructure building needed for mining development

• Established JOGMEC investment arm

• Joint operation with Australian companies in South Africa and Botswana

• Academic support to Botswana and Mongol

Ajinomoto (seasoning)

Sumitomo Co.(nickel, cobalt)

Mitsubishi Co.(ferrochrome)

ToyotaNissan

KomatsuHitachiToshiba

YKK(fastening)

Toyota Tsusho(automobile)

Sumitomo Chemical(Olyset-Net)

Panasonic(battery)

JT(tobacco)

Mitsui Co., Itochu(natural gas)

Mitsui Co., Marubeni(natural gas)

Mitsubishi Co.(aluminum)

Honda (motorcycle)

Leading Japanese companies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sonny

Swaziland

Mozambique

Madagascar

Tanzania

South Africa

Namibia

Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria

Kenya

HitachiConstructionMachinery

Zambia

Ambatovy Project in Madagascar

• 3.3 billion dollars to 9.3 billion dollars GDP

• Sherritt Intrenational (40%), Sumitomo Corporation (27.5%), Korea Resources (27.5%), SNC Lavalin (5%)

• Madagascar will be 3.8% Nickel producer and 8.3% cobalt producer in the world. Its GDP will be doubled.

• Mining, smelting, transportation system, port building, food production, CSR activities, etc.

• But, 2009 coup d'état

‘Resource Curse’Economic Growth led by natural resources goes against Development

• Dutch Disease →retreat of production

• Rentier State →apathy to development

• Governance theory in Economics

• Political Science on Sub-Saharan Africa

Weak State, Collapsed State, Predatory State, Kleptocracy State, Vampire State, etc.

Exchange rates (year of 2000=100)

Zambia

Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria

South Africa

Index of ‘control of corruption’

Zambia

Nigeria

Chad

Equatorial Guinea

Sudan

Angola

Index of ‘government effectiveness’

Zambia

Nigeria

Chad

Equatorial Guinea

Sudan

Angola

The current situations of Japanese ODA

• Fundamental changes comparing with the assumption in ODA Charter 2003

SSA-centered

Grant-centered

• Budgetary limited

required more persuasive logics

required more up-to-date methodology

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

(million $)

East Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East

Regional distribution of Japanese ODA (2007 constant prices)

Japan does not provide ODA to East Asia?