Perspective on Colorado’s Economy and State Budget

Office of State Planning and BudgetingLaura Blomquist

Economistwww.colorado.gov/ospb

June 5, 2015

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Agenda

• State of Colorado’s Economic Health

• TABOR

• FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17 Budgets

U.S and Colorado Jobs (2000 to 2015)

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1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103

109

115

121

127

133

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

The graph compares the change in the number of jobs nationally and in Colorado since January of 2000 using a three month moving average. Index: March 2000=100 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. OSPB December 2014 Forecast. Includes OSPB’s estimates of forthcoming revisions to jobs data that are currently not pub-lished. The jobs figures will be benchmarked based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data to more accurately reflect the number of jobs in the state than what was estimated based on a survey of employers.

Colorado Jobs

Jobs Na-tionally

Index

Fore-cast

Growth in Jobs by Colorado Region,January 2010 through November 2014

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Includes the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment's estimates of forthcoming revisions to jobs data. The estimates are based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data to more accurately reflect the number of jobs in than has been estimated based on surveys of employers.

Greeley Denver Ft. Collins/

Loveland

Pueblo Grand Junction

Boulder CO Spgs Statewide0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

15.6%

7.2% 7.0%

5.0%

3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

5.8%

A TABOR Simile

TABOR Limit

TABOR Refund

General Fund

Cash Funds

Income and Sales taxes

Fees

Hospital Provider Fee, Severance Tax, and other TABOR Revenue and Referendum C

Source: OSPB March 2015 Forecast

FY 2005-06

FY 2006-07

FY 2007-08

FY 2008-09

FY 2009-10

FY 2010-11

FY 2011-12

FY 2012-13

FY 2013-14

FY 2014-15

FY 2015-16

FY 2016-17$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

Other TABOR Revenue Severance Tax Hospital Provider Fee Referendum C Cap

$120.4 million above cap in FY 2015-16$316.6 million above cap in FY 2016-17

$216.2 million above cap in FY 2014-15

Bil

lion

s of

Doll

ars

FY 2014-15 to FY 2015-16 Budget Changes

Major General Fund Expenditure ChangesFY 2014-15 Initial Appropriation vs.

FY 2015-16 Initial Appropriation    

   

FY 2014-15Original Appropriation

FY 2015-16Appropriation

Difference from FY 2014-15 Original App. to

FY 2015-16 App.

Department of Health Care Policy and Financing 2,264,471,263

2,505,692,642

241,221,379

Department of Education

3,357,895,804

3,567,225,364

209,329,560

Department of Higher Education

761,983,052 856,759,158 94,776,106

Department of Corrections 720,429,597

766,755,184 46,325,587 Governor - Lt. Governor - State Planning and Budgeting 34,366,530 41,197,668 6,831,138 Overhead Increases / Employee Costs   49,673,386 49,673,386

Transfer to Capital Construction Fund

225,500,000 247,659,939 22,159,939

TABOR Refund -

340,200,000

340,200,000

Transfers to Highway Users Tax Fund -

103,100,000

103,100,000    

STATEWIDE     1,113,617,095

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Medicaid Caseload Categories and Costs

Colorado State General Fund RevenueFY 2000-01 through FY 2015-16 Budget

State Education Fund Money, Spending, and Reserves Under Governor’s Budget Request

FY 2011-12 through FY 2015-16 ($ in Millions)

$511 $340 $527 $670 $630 $490

$2,672 $2,852 $2,985

$3,181 $3,393 $3,694

$2,050 $2,105 $2,014

$2,082 $2,216

$2,277

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17

Mill

ions

Public School Finance: FY 12 to FY 17Amendment 23 Target vs Funded

Amounts by Source

SEF GF Other Am23

General Fund Overview with November 3, 2014 Budget Request($ in Millions)

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Visit

www.colorado.gov/ospb