Perspective National WEF Security Analysis 2050: Scenario …€¦ · • Ethiopia has adequate...
Transcript of Perspective National WEF Security Analysis 2050: Scenario …€¦ · • Ethiopia has adequate...
Perspective National WEF Security Analysis 2050: Scenario Based Nexus Modeling
Contribution to Ethiopia 2050 Vision: Grand Challenges and Opportunities
Semu Moges* and Megersa Tesfaye**
*Consultant and Adj. professor at University of Connecticut, [email protected], [email protected]
**Addis Ababa University
1. Ethiopian Grand Challenges
2. WEF Questions?
Can Ethiopia achieve WEF security by 2030 and 2050?
What would be the consequence on the land and water resources bases
What does It take for Ethiopia, to develop and sustain WEF security without significantly affecting the resources base (Sustainable Scenario)?
3. Selected Scenarios
Scen1BAUScen – Business as Usual Scenario
Scen2RV2030Scen -Revised Middle
Scen3AGriScen –Agricultural as Usual Scenario
• When per capita WEF consumptions continue as in the past but socio-economic drivers continue to grow
Revised Middle Income Country by 2030
• Achieving 100% Food, Water and Energy access
• Middle income per capita access
Agricultural Intensification Scenario
• Achieving 100% Water and Energy Access,
• Middle income per capita access
• Doubling Agricultural Productivity (Both Rainfed and Irrigation)
4. Drivers
Year Population Growth rate (%)
Total Population (%)
Urban. Rate (%)
Total Urban Population (%)
Total Rural population (%)
2014 2.6 97.4
2015 2.6 99.8 19.4 80.52015 2.6 99.8 19.4 80.5
2030 2.03 139.6 4.1 32.5 102.1
2050 1.30 190.8 3.02 74.5 116.3
5. Resources - Water
600
700
800
900
1000
Wat
er
Sou
rce
s (B
CM
)
Precipitation
Green Water
Blue Water1 (Runoff)
Blue Water2 (GW)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Precipitation Green Water Blue Water1 (Runoff)
Blue Water2 (GW)
Wat
er
Sou
rce
s (B
CM
)
Blue Water2 (GW)
5. Resources- Land
Lan-Use type Area (mil. ha)
Forests 12.50 (12.5%)
Permanent meadows and pastures
19.96 (19.96%)pastures
Crop lands 16.30 (16.30%)
Other lands(includes Urban areas , Built up areas, and barren lands)
51.25 (51.24%)
Total land 100 (100 %)
5. Resources - Power Capacity
Power Generating Plant Maximum Potential
Hydropower 45GW
Geothermal 10GW
Wind 10,000GW
Solar 5.5kw/m2/day
Wood (Biomass) 1,120 million tone/year
waste 20 million tone/year
6. Method: CLEWS WEF Nexus Modeling
7. Future Total Demand: Water
0
10
20
30
40
50
Base Year 2030 2050
Wat
er
De
man
d (
BC
M)
Year
Residential water Industrial water
Commercial water Agricultural water
40
60
Wat
er
De
man
d
(BC
M)
BAU Scenario
0
20
Base year 2030 2050
Wat
er
De
man
d
(BC
M)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Base Year 2030 2050
Wat
er
De
man
d
(BC
M)
RV2030 Scenario
Agri Scenario
7. Future Total Demand: Food Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
MT
Year
Food Demand [Million Tones (MT]-BAU Scenario
Food Demand[MT] - RV2030 & Agri Scenarios
Teff Maize Sorgume Wheate Pulses Oil Seeds Vegitables Root Crops Frui Crops
Coffee Suger Cane Barly Rice Oats Millet Hops Chat
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
MT
Teff Maize Sorgume Wheate Pulses Oil SeedsVegitables Root Crops Frui Crops Coffee Suger Cane BarlyRice Oats Millet Hops Chat
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
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20
22
20
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20
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20
25
20
26
20
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20
28
20
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20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
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34
20
35
20
36
20
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40
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41
20
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20
44
20
45
20
46
20
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20
48
20
49
20
50
Pow
er
Gen
era
tion
[GW
h]
BAU Scenario
7. Future Total Demand: Energy
600000
RV2030 & Agri Scenarios
Biomass Diesel Geothermal Hydro
Solar Waste Wind
0
150000
300000
450000
Po
we
r[G
Wh
] Solar Waste Wind
-Ethiopia has adequate renewable energy resources to develop and satisfy the growing demand until 2050. -The energy mix is dominated by hydropower and shifts to solar energy after 2040.
8.1 Key Features: Cost of Energy Generation
200
250
300
350
400
Energy generation (Infrastructure + generation + distribution)
2030 2040 2050
BAU Scenario Capital Investment [Bill. US $]
28 26 99
RV2030 Scenario Capital Investment [Bill. US $]
82 197 335
Agri Scenario Capital Investment [Bill. US $]
82 197 335
0
50
100
150
200distribution) requires huge capital
8.1. Key Features: Energy Export
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Ele
ctrici
ty[G
Wh]
BAU Scenario
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Ele
ctrici
ty[G
Wh]
RV2030 and Agri Scenario
Under RV2030 and Agri Scenario, Ethiopia can’t afford to export hydropower Energy after 2026
8.2. Key Features: Decling Crop Land
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Lan
d-U
se[1
000H
a] BAU Scenario
Forrests Cropland Permanent Pastures and meadows Other land
40000
60000
80000
100000use
[100
0H
a]
RV2030 Scenario
RV2030 Scenario – will continue to induce conflict with pastoralists and forest Ecosystem
Agri Scenario -Doubling of
0
20000
40000
Lan
d-u
se[1
00
0H
a]
Forrests Cropland Permanent Pastures and meadows Other land
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Lan
d-U
se[1
000H
a]
Agri Scenario
Forrests Cropland Permanent Pastures and meadows Other land
Doubling of agricultural productivity will guarantee food security as well as reduces burden on both the pastoral and forest resources
8.2. Key Features: Crop Imports
0
5
10
15
20
Cro
p Im
po
rt [
MT]
BAU Scenario [MT]
25
35
imp
ort
[M
T]
RV2030 Scenario [MT]
Both land expansion and doubling of Crop productivity doesn’t eliminate crop import and
-5
5
15
25
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20
50
Cro
p im
po
rt [
02468
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48
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Cro
p im
po
rts
[MT]
Agri Scenario [MT]
Barly Other carops Maize Wheate Vegitables
crop import and guarantee food self sufficiency. AgriScenario significantly reduces crop import from 30 MT to 6 MT by 2050.
9. Summary• Ethiopia has adequate renewable water & energy resources to
develop and satisfy the growing demand until 2050– The energy mix is dominated by hydropower and shifts to solar energy
after 2040. – Energy generation requires significant capital investment
• Ethiopia has limited land resources for extensive agriculture development (land expansion based agriculture)
• Ethiopia can only satisfy its food security by 2030 & beyond changing the current mode of production and productivity– Doubling of agricultural productivity guarantee food security as well as
reduces burden on both the pastoral and forest resources– Maize crop is found to be dominant economic crop to grow in Ethiopia– Continuing with Extensive agriculture will significantly conflict to the
least, with pastoral and forest Ecosystems
• Ethiopia requires significantly Large investment to achieve WEF security.
10. Policy Recommendation– Mobilizing A Marshal Scale Investment and Youth
power
• Build Institutions and human resources capacity building
• Expand Energy Infrastructure development
• Focus Investing in both Rainfed and Irrigation Agriculture inputs and technologies to double Agricultural Productivityinputs and technologies to double Agricultural Productivity
• Implementing Nexus approach in Planning, Designing and Management of WEF to reduce costs and improve sustainability
– Creating Enabling Environment – Peace and investment guarantee and protection
– Enabling knowledge based private public partnership (PPP)