Perspective INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST · report and Constitution Amendment Bill staged across the...

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THE MONTH THAT WAS

} Massive protests in support of Jallikattu in Chennai and rest of Tamil Nadu

} Jagdalpur- Bhubaneswar Hirakhand Express derails in Vizianagaram

} Cold wave conditions have an adverse impact on normal life in Himachal Pradesh and J&K; avalanches cause deaths of nearly 20, mostly soldiers

} Wall collapse at Mantri Mall in Bengaluru exposes the lack of adherence to structural safety

FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY 2017

} National: Assembly elections in Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, and local body elections in Maharashtra

} High alert across the country as spread of swine flu picks up during receding months of winter season

} Taking cue from Jallikattu protests, similar agitation could pick up pace in Maharashtra and Karnataka

th } Chhatrapati Shivaji Jayanti celebrations in Maharashtra on February 19

st thw February 1 : Union Budget w February 15 : Assembly Elections in corporations of Thane, Ulhasnagar, Pune,

th Uttarakhand and Phase-2 of Assembly Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nashik, Solapur, Akola, w February 4 : Assembly Elections in Punjab and Elections in Uttar Pradesh Amravati and NagpurGoa

th rdth w February 19 : Phase-3 of Assembly Elections w February 23 : Phase-4 of Assembly Elections w February 7 : Bank employees to go on a

in Uttar Pradesh in Uttar Pradeshnation-wide strikest th

th w February 21 : Elections of Brihanmumbai w February 27 : Phase-5 of Assembly Elections w February 11 : Phase-1 of Assembly Elections in Municipal Corporation, and municipal in Uttar PradeshUttar Pradesh

EVENT CALENDAR

NAXAL TRACKER} Maoists abduct four poll officials in Malkangiri; six security personnel

injured in encounter with Maoists in Latehar district } Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister gets additional security in view of Maoist

threat

ISLAMIC STATE IN SOUTH ASIA} Bangladesh: Two Bangladeshi arrested in Malaysia for suspected links to IS} India: Suspected IS supporter arrested in Hyderabad } Afghanistan: Suspected IS fighters kidnap twelve teachers in Nangarhar province} IS-related incidents in South Asia – January 2017

Attack on a market in the Shia-dominated town of

Parachinar leaves at least 20 dead and 70 injured

PakistanViolent agitation at Hambantota port;

Drought conditions worsen in Sri Lanka

Sri LankaOpposition to Local Level

Restructuring Commission report and Constitution Amendment Bill staged

across the country

NepalMajor cyber-attacks

disrupt internet service across the Maldives

MaldivesAround 22,000 Rohingyas fled Rakhine province in

the first seven days of January

Spotlight: MyanmarRapid Action Battalion

arrests 10 JMB suspects in Dhaka; mastermind of

the Dhaka café attack killed in an encounter

Bangladesh

} State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – January 2017

PerspectiveFEBRUARY 2017

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

4

February 2017

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

1

6

12 1413

3

11

2

9 1085

15 16

19

26

20 21

27 28

22 23

17

24

18

25

7

} Event Calendar – February 2017

India Monthly Risk Forecast - February 2017 1

tarting out as a peaceful protest on Chennai's no unified command or interested in legal jargon, SMarina beach in support of Jallikattu on the students mounted pressure to reinitiate the thJanuary 17 , the protests turned violent on sport. Like most recent protests in India, the

rdJanuary 23 , injuring at least 60 people in clashes. movement was leaderless and largely remained The protests that began at Madurai, Sivaganga, peaceful. The Jallikattu protests were termed as a Pattukottai and Alanganallur villages eventually fight for Tamil identity and culture. Jallikattu, a spilling over into the state's capital. The protest predominantly rural issue, gained the active was against the Supreme Court's ban on support from urban sections of the Tamil society, in conducting the bull taming sport – Jallikattu, part the state as well as across India and abroad. The

likelihood of further protests is high. The state of the Pongal Festival. The ban initiated in 2014 Supreme Court ban was considered as an assault on government's revoking if the Supreme Court's order was in support of animal rights, arguing that the Tamil culture. may also set the precedence for other states to sport involved torture and suffering of the bulls.follow suit, especially on issues where there is a Under pressure, the Tamil Nadu government potential for mass movements. Following this, there was no Jallikattu since 2015. promulgated the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals

However, in 2016, the Ministry of Environment (Tamil Nadu Amendment) Ordinance, 2017, and a and Forests modified its original notification bill on similar lines was passed in the legislative (issued earlier in 2011 to ban bulls in sports) that assembly. The amendment seeks to exempt the allowed the use of bulls to continue in events like conduct of Jallikattu from the provisions of the ban. Jallikattu. This, contradicting the orders of the The effects of the Jallikattu protests have already apex court, gave impetus to protests such as spilled over to the neighbouring state of Karnataka, “Occupy Marina”. The protestors were a mix of taking cue in favour of Kambala buffalo race that too college students and professionals, also has faced a similar ban. The region has been on the comprising of many women and children. Having boil since the Cauvery water dispute and the

Massive protests in support of Jallikattu in Chennai and rest of Tamil Nadu

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2India Monthly Risk Forecast - February 2017

ravelling from Jagdalpur to Bhubaneswar, the factors. The Odisha Police has, however, ruled out T18448 Hirakhand Express derailed in Andhra the involvement of Maoists. The site of the incident stPradesh's Vizianagaram district on January 21 . is on the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh border and is

The incident killed at least 40 people and injured known for left wing extremism. No outfit or over 65. Apart from the engine, seven coaches organization has claimed responsibility for the were derailed. Four coaches fell on an adjacent accident.goods train and the other three were completely crushed under the impact of the accident. This was the third derailment over the last two

thmonths. On November 10 2016, 14 coaches of the

Services were affected on the Rayagada and Indore–Patna express derailed at Pukhrayan Vizianagaram route, with about three trains being resulting in over 150 deaths. Failure of Railway staff cancelled and eight diverted. Compensation of is the biggest cause behind train accidents and Rs.2 Lakh each for families of those killed and Rs. derailments that have led to maximum deaths and 50,000 for injured has been announced by the injuries to passengers, as per a safety report Railway Minister and additional compensation is submitted to the Railway Ministry. The failure of being provided by the government of Andhra railway staff is the biggest cause in 50 to 60 per cent Pradesh. cases, and derailments cause maximum deaths and

injuries. There is a need for technology upgradation As per the Indian Railways, the reasons could be in the Indian Railways so as to have less dependence the rail fracture as two deep cuts in the rails were on human intervention. found contributing to the involvement of external

Jagdalpur- Bhubaneswar Hirakhand Express derails in Vizianagaram


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ormal life was affected in Jammu and in major cities and towns of the state. The NKashmir, Himachal Pradesh and other parts Chandigarh-Shimla national highway was disrupted of North India following heavy snowfall, rain and at Shogi due to snow and heavy rains lashed the sleet. The cold wave conditions disrupted the daily towns of Solan, Nahan, Una, Mandi, Bilaspur, lives of people, affecting private and government Palampur and Hamirpur.businesses.

The Kashmir Valley too came to a standstill as land The paralysing winter swept most parts of and air connectivity was cut off from the rest of the Himachal Pradesh, severely affecting upper tribal country. Heavy snowfall led to the closure of areas of the state along with upper parts of Shimla, Jammu-Srinagar National Highway, which is the Kullu, Chail and Sirmaur district with minimum lifeline of the valley. This resulted in buses, trucks, addition, a 60-year-old man died after he came temperatures staying between -13 and -18 Celsius. cars and goods vehicles stranded on the highway. under an avalanche in Uri sector of Baramulla Shimla faced days with acute power and water Moreover, flights to Srinagar Airport were also district. shortage, water pipes froze and burst at several cancelled. The cold wave conditions disrupted the places affecting water supply to the hill resorts of power supply grids, cutting off electricity Himachal Pradesh witnessed such an intense winter the region. throughout the valley and resulted in an overall after 24 years while most parts of Kashmir Valley

power failure. had been facing a dry spell over the last five months.The intense cold conditions disrupted traffic movement in Shimla, hampering supplies of daily In J&K, two avalanches hit army personnel in Gurez

thcommodities. The weekends brought heavy sector on January 25 trapping several soldiers tourist inflow, adding to the traffic and disruption under the debris; 17 soldiers were killed. In

Cold wave conditions have an adverse impact on normal life in Himachal Pradesh and J&K; avalanches cause deaths of nearly 20, mostly soldiers


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engaluru's Mantri Mall has been closed down spaces like malls that have a high footfall are critical Bsince the collapse of a parapet wall on January and hence safety inspections should be carried out th16 . The wall collapsed mid–day injuring two of on a regular basis.

the mall's staff and setting hundreds of people in panic. People had to be evacuated from The Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) restaurants, food courts, and theatres. The entire withdrew the Occupancy Certificate of the mall stretch of Sampige Road, already known for its following the event and has initiated an inquiry on traffic, was amidst another chaos as people rushed its structural aspects. Violations and loopholes in out of the Mall in fear of the entire building the sanctioned plan are to be checked and a report collapsing. on safety and structural norms will be sought. The

Mantri Mall was one of the 18 malls in Bengaluru A preliminary inquiry into the collapse revealed that had been given notices by Fire and Safety dampness in the structure that resulted in Department for violating norms in 2016, however, it moisture accumulation weakening the wall. The is only incidents like these that could push certain dampness is due to unchecked leakage in water organisations to consider structural safety.pipes or air conditioning duct. The building itself is only seven years old, which indicates the lack of adherence to structural safety in fast growing cities. Substandard materials being used during building processes, lack of adherence to construction procedures, and improper drainage system results in fragile infrastructure. Public

Wall collapse at Mantri Mall in Bengaluru exposes the lack of adherence to structural safety


Political Environment

Internal Security Situation

Extremism &

Terrorism

Civil Unrest

Crime Crime against women

Natural /Man-made Disasters

Pandemics Infrastructure

Emergency Services

High Medium Low

Jammu & Kashmir

Himachal Pradesh

Punjab

Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Delhi NCR

Haryana

Rajasthan

Bihar

Jharkhand

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

West Bengal

Assam

Meghalaya

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Rating

States


State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – January 2017

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State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – January 2017

Political Environment

Internal Security Situation

Extremism &

Terrorism

Civil Unrest

Crime Crime against women

Natural /Man-made Disasters

Pandemics Infrastructure

Emergency Services

High Medium LowOverall

Risk Rating

States

Arunachal Pradesh

Mizoram

Nagaland

Sikkim

Manipur

Tripura

Maharashtra

Goa

Madhya Pradesh

Gujarat

Telangana

Andhra Pradesh

Karnataka

Tamil Nadu

Kerala

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Punjab Government has badly hit Punjab's agricultural and industrial sector. Several protests were carried out The assembly elections in Punjab will be held on

th by the Farmers Unions and Industrial Unions to February 4 ; The counting will take place on March th protest the move by the Government. The 11 . The current ruling coalition of the Shiromani

manufacturing sector in the state showed a 32% Akali Dal (SAD) and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) drop due to reduced demand and work force led by Prakash Singh Badal has come under intense inconsistencies post demonetization. pressure by the Congress opposition led by

Amarinder Singh and Aam Admi Party (AAP) led by The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), reviewed the Arvind Kejriwal. security situation in poll-bound Punjab and alerted the state police on possible attempts by Pakistan's There have been scattered incidents of election-ISI to foment trouble. Punjab will also see the largest related violence in Punjab over the last month deployment of security forces out of the 85,000 state. The year 2016 saw the emergence of an including the shoe hurling incident on the Chief Central Armed Police Forces personnel sanctioned unexpected political force, Goa Suraksha Manch Minister's rally in Lambi and stone pelting incident by the MHA for the upcoming assembly polls in five (GSM), which is all set to take the saffron party head in Jalalabad. The ongoing Jat agitation is also an states. on. The Aam Aadmi Party will also be making its important aspect of electoral proceedings as The

debut in the state this time around. Goa has so far All India Jat Aarakshan Sangharsh Samiti has also not seen a significant number of political clashes announced an appeal to the community members Goaand the elections are expected to be carried out in a to support winnable candidates of AAP or Assembly elections in Goa are scheduled to be held

th peaceful manner.Congress in Punjab in a clear effort to deter BJP's in single phase on February 4 . The BJP, Congress chances. and Aam Aadmi Party have done hectic

Uttar Pradeshcampaigning in the state. The ruling party BJP The demonetisation drive by the Central Uttar Pradesh polls will be held in seven phases appears confident of holding on to power in the

Assembly elections in Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, and local body elections in Maharashtra


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thstarting on February 11 . Western UP, which plays a major role in the Assembly elections in the Local Body Elections in Maharashtraincludes the r iot-hit constituencies of state. 26 Zilla Parishads and eleven Municipal

stMuzaffarnagar and Shamli, will go to polls in the Corporations are scheduled to go for polls on 21 th

first phase of elections on February 11 . February. However, the most important phase is the UttarakhandstPreviously, constituencies in the eastern part of Mumbai Civic body polls on February 21 . The The 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly polls will be held in

the state would go to polls in the first phase. The th tensions between the Shiv Sena and BJP has led to single phase on February 15 . The state will see a recent infighting in the Samajwadi Party has the two parties deciding to fight individually for the straight battle between the state's ruling party, caused a stir in Uttar Pradesh with the party BMC elections.Congress and opposition, BJP. The Congress is President and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav finally

working to retain its position in the upcoming being able to control the split and announcing a

assembly elections in the state. To ensure win in the coalition with the Indian National Congress. The

Uttarakhand polls, the Congress has appointed recent incidents of communal violence, Dalit

party's state chief Kishore Upadhyay and poll related attacks and demonetization have kept the

strategist Prashant Kishore. The Himalayan state of state in a condition of constant scrutiny. The

Uttarakhand has two major physical divisions: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by former Chief

Garhwal and Kumaon. Caste and religious factors Minister Mayawati has also led protests and

play major role in Uttarakhand elections and ticket attacks on the ruling SP and the BJP.

distribution for the assembly seats is an index of that. Meanwhile, horse trading might also come

After the last Assembly polls in 2012 there have thinto play after March 11 when the results are out,

been over eleven thousand communal and especially if it a hung assembly.

political incidents of violence in Uttar Pradesh as per police records. The issue of reservation also

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Swine flu is a respiratory disease caused by during the 2015-2016 period. In Hyderabad, the influenza viruses that infect the respiratory tract of number of confirmed positive cases since January

stpigs and result in a barking cough, decreased 1 reached around 110 till end of the month. On thappetite, nasal secretions, and listless behavior; January 28 , the temple town of Tirupati was put on

the virus can be transmitted to humans. high alert following the death of a woman at a Symptoms of swine flu in humans are similar to government hospital due to respiratory illness. most influenza infections: fever (100 F or greater), Uttar Pradesh also reported its first death due to the cough, nasal secretions, fatigue, and headache. virus in Allahabad. Madhya Pradesh reported over Vaccination is the best way to prevent or reduce 23 cases of swine flu in Bhopal.the chances of becoming infected with influenza viruses. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

recommends flu vaccinations for all people older The fag end of the winter season in India has sees a than six months of age. The vaccine will be available surge in swine flu cases across the northern areas as an injection or as a nasal spray. The nasal spray is of the country as well as the southern peninsula. approved for use in healthy people two through 49 Cases were recorded in several states including years of age, who are not pregnant. The fluctuation Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Uttar in temperatures observed during this time of the Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra, Telangana and year are specially conducive to the H1N1 virus; in Gujarat. addition to this, the airborne pollutants in several

areas of the country give rise to respiratory ailments In January 2017, in Punjab, swine flu claimed its and this translates into the weakening of the first victim in Ludhiana. In Ludhiana itself there immune system which helps in spreading the virus were over ninety reported cases of swine flu through the body much more rapidly.

High alert across the country as spread of swine flu picks up during receding months of winter season

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With the Tamil Nadu state government ordinance at the earliest to clear the decks to promulgating an ordinance to conduct the bull- conduct Kambala. Noted personalities from the taming sport Jallikattu amidst widespread Tulu film industry including actors Devdas Kapikad, agitations across the state, a similar movement Naveen D Padil, Bhojaraj Vamanjoor, director-seems to be brewing in the neighbouring state of producer Vijay Kumar Kodailbail, BJP MP Nalin Karnataka. Stepping up pressure on the Kumar Kateel, Congress MLA Mohiuddin Bava and government following the success of the Jallikattu others, called for immediate government action to stir in Tamil Nadu, students, artistes and politicians ensure the continuation of Kambala. staged a massive protest in Mangluru, demanding removal of the ban on Kambala, a traditional The State Assembly is due to convene in Bengaluru such events.

thbuffalo race which is held annually in the coastal on February 6 and the outcome of the resolution region. Kambala, like Jallikattu, was banned after will dictate the intensity of these protests. The Shiv Sena will reportedly hold protests in animal rights group PETA approached the court, Maharashtra demanding that the ban on bullock-citing animal cruelty in sports like bull-taming and Meanwhile, lifting of the ban on Jallikattu has cart-racing be lifted. The traditional sport, which buffalo-racing. AIADMK Karnataka unit workers triggered renewed calls for revival of the forbidden was usually conducted as part of the Pune festival staged a protest demanding lifting of the ban on sport 'Bailgadi Shariyat', the bullock cart race in during Ganesh Chaturthi, was banned by the Kambala and demanded a ban on PETA, which has Maharashtra. Shetkari Sanghatana, a farmers' Supreme Court in 2014.filed a petition in the Karnataka High Court to organization in Maharashtra, demanded lifting of restrain the sport. the ban on bullock cart racing in the state and

threatened to launch a state-wide agitation over Political activists and leaders took out processions the issue. According to the protesters, the bullock raising slogans against PETA and demanded that cart races have a 400- year-old history in the state, the Siddaramaiah government bring in an with farmers rearing these bullocks especially for

Taking cue from Jallikattu protests, similar agitation could pick up pace in Maharashtra and Karnataka


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thOn February 19 , Maharashtra celebrates the gatherings, rallies and stringent security checks are birth anniversary of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, likely to hinder traffic movement at many places,

ththe legendary 17 century warrior king of the especially in Mumbai. region and the founder of the Maratha Empire. The celebrations are particularly grand in Mumbai; The emergence of agitation by the Maratha other cities like Pune and Nashik too have community in the state, who consider Shivaji as elaborate celebrations. In Mumbai, the major hub their leader, may lead to increased fervour and of festivities is at Shivaji Park in Dadar (Central political tussle over the celebrations. In addition, as Mumbai), with massive rallies held at the venue. It the state is set to head for municipal elections in is a holiday across the state, with most offices and February, the birth anniversary celebrations could educational institutions closed. see high political activities, with various political

parties working to stake claim to the legacy of The city of Mumbai is heavily guarded by the police Shivaji Maharaj, to garner votes.force, which will be deployed in high numbers to maintain the law and order situation during the event's proceedings. Personnel from Rapid Action Force, State Reserve Police Force, and Home Guards are also deployed. The Navy and Coast Guards usually provide necessary assistance at the beaches. Helicopters are used for aerial cover and closed circuit television cameras (CCTVs) are installed at major waterfronts and roads. Mass

thChhatrapati Shivaji Jayanti celebrations in Maharashtra on February 19

stw February 1 :

stw February 1 :

thw February 4 :

thw February 6 :

thw February 7 :

thw February 7 :

thw February 9 :

thw February 11 :

thw February 11 :

thw February 15 :

thw February 15 :

thw February 16 :

thw February 18 :

thw February 19 :

thw February 19 : rd

w February 23 : stw February 21 : rd

w February 23 :

thst w February 27 :

w February 21 :

Union Budget Mayawati to kick-off her UP election campaign with rallies in

Meerut, Baghpat and AligarhAssembly Elections in Punjab and GoaProtest meeting by BJP in Kolkata Bank employees to go on a nation-wide strikeSupreme Court to hold day-to-day hearings on Cauvery

thappeals for three weeks, starting from February 7 First Anniversary of protests on JNU campus

Phase-1 of Assembly Elections in Uttar PradeshDeath Anniversary of JKLF founder Mohammad Maqbool

Bhat Assembly Elections in Uttarakhand and Phase-2 of Assembly

Elections in Uttar PradeshAuto and taxi unions in Karnataka to hold statewide protests15 Zilla Parishads and 165 Panchayat Samitis in Maharashtra

to go to polls Leader of Karnataka Chalavali Varalakshmi Paksha

Varalakshmi Nagaraj has called for a statewide bandh seeking support on lifting ban on Kambala

Phase-3 of Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti

Phase-4 of Assembly Elections in Uttar PradeshElections of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, and

Counting Day for the elections of municipal councils, zilla municipal corporations of Thane, Ulhasnagar, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, parishads and panchayat samitis of MaharashtraNashik, Solapur, Akola, Amravati and Nagpur

Phase-5 of Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh11 Zilla Parishads and 118 Panchayat Samitis in Maharashtra to go to polls


Key Dates For February 2017

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

4

6 7

14

23

11

13

1

16

26 27

3

24 25

12 18

22

2

98

15 17

19 20 21

28

5 10

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13

Bangladesh Pakistan Sri LankaAfghanistan Nepal Maldives

t least 65,000 Rohingya have fled to Myanmar's government has said the claims of ABangladesh from Myanmar and a third of abuse are fabricated and launched a special them in the first week of January, since the army commission to investigate the allegations. The launched a crackdown in the north of Rakhine government presented its interim report denying state. According to the United Nations, 22,000 accusations of genocide and religious persecution new arrivals were reported to have crossed the and saying there was insufficient evidence that

thborder from Rakhine state. As of January 5 , an troops had been committing rape. Earlier in estimated 65,000 people are residing in registered January, a video, showing police beating Rohingya camps, makeshift settlements and host civilians, went viral and the government said that it communities in Cox's Bazaar in southern was an isolated incident, after the officers were Bangladesh, said the Office for the Coordination of arrested.Humanitarian Affairs.

Meanwhile, police in Dhaka stopped thousands of The exodus of Rohingya from northern Rakhine Islamists from marching to the border with began after Myanmar's army launched clearance Myanmar to protest at a crackdown on the operations while searching for insurgents behind Rohingya Muslim minority. Government of deadly raids on police border posts three months Bangladesh was under pressure from Muslim ago. Escapees from the persecuted Muslim groups and opposition to open its border to the minority in Bangladesh have reportedly given fleeing Rohingyas. More than 230,000 Rohingyas harrowing accounts of security forces committing are in Bangladesh, most of them illegally, although mass rape, murder and arson. around 32,000 are formally registered as refugees.

Around 22,000 Rohingyas fled Rakhine province in the first seven days of January

India Monthly Risk Forecast - February 2017

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14

yanmar authorities are reported to have arable land in local Naga villages. Intelligence Mstarted building a fence along the border of agencies have also cautioned the ministry that India-Myanmar, which has alerted the security fencing may lead to armed conflicts. establishment in India. Myanmar officials have stated that the fence does not break the The India-Myanmar border is about 1,624 km long. agreements with India. The fence is being laid Tribes living along border areas can travel up to 16 between the border posts 145 and 146. Indian km on either side without visa. The movement of Security officials at the border have asked the militants operating in the northeast has remained Union Home Ministry to order a survey of the unhindered due to the porous border. Security frontier on the Indian side. The ministry has begun agencies believe that militants have managed to measuring the border to make sure it doesn't fall find safe zone across the border after carrying out on the Indian side. attacks. Locals had, earlier, opposed attempts of the

two countries to conduct a survey and construct operation was not much publicized. According to The proposal came after a delegation of the fences along the border. the reports, at least 35 militants had been killed in Eastern Nagaland People's Organisation (ENPO) the operation.and village council members met officials of the One of the important reasons considered for the the Union Home and Defence Ministries in connection building of border fencing is that the Indian Army with the construction of fencing by the Myanmar had carried out a surgical strike inside Myanmar in government. The Khiamniungan Naga tribe 2015 after the National Socialist Council of numbering over 3,000 and expected to be most Nagaland – Khaplang (NSCN-K) killed 18 Indian affected if the fencing construction does not stop soldiers. Unlike the 2016 surgical strike on terror as the border fencing may cut off 3,500 acres of launch pads in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, the 2015

Myanmar's border fencing alerts Indian authorities


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15

Spotlight:Myanmar

he Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested 10 Beribadh area of Dhaka. Police claimed that Marjan stTpeople from different parts of Dhaka on coordinated the July 1 attack on Dhaka's Holey

thJanuary 9 over suspected links with the militants Artisan Bakery. A former Islami Chhatra Shibir responsible for the Holey Artisan attack that leader, Marjan was stated to be the youngest

sthappened on July 1 last year. The arrests were military commander of the New JMB, a new faction made from the capital's Uttara and Kalabagan of Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) areas. Of the detainees, two were former and affiliated with Islamic State. He was reported to also incumbent principals of the Uttara Life School, have connection with a number of top leaders of the which had recently come under spotlight after it outfit. Marjan had expertise in operating heavy was revealed that the institution was reportedly a arms. Marjan, who studied Arabic at Chittagong hotspot for militants involved in the terrorist University, had reportedly disappeared a year ago, attacks on the café in Dhaka and Sholakia Eidgah from his family's village in Pabna district, 160 km enforcers have conducted counter-terrorism raids on the Eid-ul-Fitr day last year. The RAB alleged (100 miles) north of the capital. in Kalyanpur, Rupnagar, Azimpur, Savar, that these 10 persons, along with the militants Narayanganj, Gazipur and Tangail, including the who frequented the school, were involved in Police have attributed several attacks over the past Neo-JMB coordinator Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury, attempts of spreading jihadist ideology among the two years to JMb. Neo-JMB, an offshoot of JMB, is thought to be one of the masterminds of the Holey students and their guardians. considered to be inspired by the ideologies of Artisan bakery attack. So far, police have claimed to

Islamic State. In July, terrorists attacked a cafe in have killed around 40 militants linked to the cafe thOn January 6 , two militants, including New JMB's Dhaka killing 22 people. Bangladeshi authorities attack.

wanted leader Nurul Islam alias Marjan, were stated that the attackers belonged to the JMB killed in an encounter with Counter-Terrorism and group, although so-called Islamic State said it Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit in Mohammadpur carried out the attack. Over the last few months, law

Rapid Action Battalion arrests 10 JMB suspects in Dhaka; mastermind of the Dhaka café attack killed in an encounter


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t least 24 people were killed and nearly 70 displaced families had reportedly returned to the Aothers sustained injuries in a blast in area. Parachinar, capital city of the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) region's Kurram There have been two incidents in the last two

stAgency, on January 21 . The blast occurred in months where security officials managed to foil Eidgah Market of Parachinar; the outlawed major attacks when a suicide bomber was gunned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed down at the Kharlachi border post and when a responsibility for the blast. donkey with explosives was intercepted in a village

near the border. The agency is adjacent to North Kurram Agency that borders Khost province of Waziristan where Operation Zarb-e-Azb is in Afghanistan is a predominately Shia populated progress against the TTP and other insurgent area which has been caught in the sectarian war groups. The military had also launched an offensive for more than a decade. It is also one of the most against militants in 2011. ripped through a crowded bazaar in a mainly Shia sensitive tribal areas as it borders three Afghan area of northwestern tribal region, killing at least 23 provinces and at one point was one of the key Parachinar is the administrative headquarters of people and wounding more than 30. 2016 was routes for militant movement across the border. the agency near the Afghan border. This was the relatively peaceful in the area, however, the latest However, the situation had been relatively fourth attack in recent years in Parachinar's Eidgah incident is expected to cast a shadow of doubt peaceful in the last year and a large number of Market. In December 2015, a bomb hidden in a bag regarding peace in the area.

Attack on a market in the Shia-dominated town of Parachinar leaves at least 20 dead and 70 injured




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New reports have emerged regarding the growing that they visited Afghanistan to assist the Afghan activities of the foreign insurgents in Afghanistan fighters and train them in conducting insurgency. amid concerns that the loyalists of the Islamic They claimed to be trained in suicide attacks, State (IS) terrorist group are attempting to expand creating landmines, and other terrorist activities. foothold in the country along with the other terrorist networks. Local officials in eastern Data from the Center on Religion and Geopolitics' Nangarhar province first reported regarding the Global Extremism Monitor for the last quarter of growing activities of the foreign insurgents who 2016 shows that attacks instigated by IS resulted in are mainly operating under the flag of IS, at least 94 deaths; the great majority of these reportedly the majority of the fighters hail from civilians. However, the group also suffered heavy Orakzai Agency in Pakistan. losses, with reports showing that state

counteractions killed at least 497 IS-affiliated In a latest development, the Afghan security forces militants during this period. Operations have been while local officials have even alleged IS activities as arrested two foreign insurgents from Uzbekistan launched against the group by Afghan armed forces, far afield as Ghor province, in the country's west. and Kazakhstan, in northern Sar-e-Pul province. American drones, and Taliban “special operations” The outsized geopolitical impact of the group's The two men were arrested during a night units. Yet the group remains resilient in its e m e r g e n c e i n A fg h a n i s t a n c a n n o t b e operation conducted in Qaflatoon area of Sayad strongholds in Nangarhar Province, in Afghanistan's underestimated.

thdistrict late on January 20 . Reportedly, four east, both because of the favorable geography of Afghan Taliban insurgents were also killed during the mountainous region, and also the religious the operation. Further, another militant from landscape, with continued support for IS among Afghanistan was wounded during the operation some Salafi communities in the province. An active and is in custody of the police forces. According to cell in Kabul has claimed more than a dozen attacks, the provincial governor, the detainees confessed

Growing foreign insurgents' activities in Afghanistan




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Violent clashes were witnessed between Separately, the Ceylon Ports General Employees protesters and government supporters, on Union have been protesting the land lease by January 7th, in Sri Lanka during a rally against the wearing black armbands while they worked in the Hambantota deep sea port deal with the Chinese ports of Hambantota, Galle, and Trincomalee. The firm, China Merchants Ports Holding Company. strong opposition to the port lead to government to The clashes took place as Sri Lankan Prime form a committee who will be to re-negotiate the Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was in attendance agreement with China and devise a final plan. The for an opening ceremony of an industrial zone near protests also meant that the formal agreement the port city of Hambantota. The opposition between China and Sri Lanka has not yet been protests were led by Buddhist monks. The protests inked.

not yet given any real commitment for the were against what the alleged plan of the The argument against the involvement of Chinese development of this port. India's only concern with government to take over private land for the firm is that such a lease would mean that the any foreign presence in Sri Lanka is that is should not industrial zone in which China will have a major Hambantota port will be Chinese and not Sri pose any security threat to India, and given the Sino stake; large amount of land would be needed to Lankan. Such a move could also mean inviting – India rivalry this fear feels real to the Indian build the 15,000-acre industrial zone.. However, international strategic interest in the port and security establishment. the government has stated that the partnership converting Sri Lanka into a theater of regional and Given Sri Lanka's strategic location for geopolitics of arrangement was necessary to free the country global geopolitical conflicts, primarily between the region, internal as well as external politics over from the debt incurred to build the port. As per China and India. In its bid to pacify Indian opposition the involvement of various foreign powers in the the agreement, 80% share of the Hambantota port to Hambantota port, Sri Lanka stated that India and country, is expected to continue. Thus causing as well as land for the massive new industrial zone Sri Lanka will soon be finalising an accord to take political upheavals in the country. would be ceded to China for the next 99 years in New Delhi's help to develop Trincomalee Port on

exchange for $1.1 billion in debt relief. the eastern coast of Sri Lanka. However, India has

Violent agitation against handing of Hambantota port to Chinese firm

Sri Lanka


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ri Lanka is suffering its worst drought in four Disaster Management Ministry stated that only Sdecades with more than a million people one-third of all agricultural lands were cultivated experiencing acute water shortages. The Ministry this year, which meant that there would be less food of Disaster Management has estimated that thus produced during the Yala season with effects far 644,377 people in the districts of Trincomalee, spilling over to the Maha season as well. Public Kandy, Kalutara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Administration and Management Ministry noted Badulla, Anuradhapura, Jaffna, Mannar, that over 50,000 acres of farmlands in the district Batticaloa, Mullaitivu and Ratnapura have been had been destroyed due to the arid conditions. affected by the drought. The lack of rain last year Around 72,579 individuals in 21,598 families in the has lowered water levels in rivers in parts of the district had been affected by the drought, according

irrigation methods till March this year and if rains country. With less water available to drain the sea to statistics. did not materialise at-least in April there would be a salt, supplies have been contaminated, especially severe water crisis in Sri Lanka.in the town of Kalutara, south of the capital, Meanwhile, the State Minister of Finance said that

Colombo. the country would have to face a severe economic crisis during next few months due to the current

With rain not expected for another two to three drought condition. According to reports, it is months, the government is warning of worsening estimated that the government would have to fund shortages. Reservoirs in the country are running around USD 1.5 billion for the drought relief. low. According to the Irrigation Department, most Government had to import 600 water bowsers to main irrigation tanks were down to 27 percent of distribute water for the drought hit areas in over 12 their capacity while 220 medium size tanks were at districts. In addition, it has also been warned that 30 percent capacity. the water could only be distributed through

Drought conditions worsen in Sri Lanka; 644,377 persons in 12 districts already hit by drought

Sri Lanka


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he Nepal government tabled the Constitution appease the Madhesis, the current government of Tamendment bill in the Parliament on January PM Prachanda has amended the Constitution, th8 . The government has planned to put the bill to a which the CPN-UML has opposed. The main

vote before announcing the election date for the opposition CPN-UML, which has been pressing the council polls. However, CPN-UML, along with government to declare poll dates, has been some fringe parties, has been opposing the bill, demanding that the government withdraw the creating difficulties for the government to garner Constitution amendment bill, while the agitating 396 votes in the 594-strong Parliament. The Madhes-based parties have warned against Madhesi parties have warned that holding local elections until the amendment bill is passed in polls without the Constitution amendment would Parliament. trigger a conflict in the country. However, the main

ongoing dispute led to a week-long deadlock in the opposition CPN-UML, stands firmly against a Further, the United Democratic Madhesi Front

Nepal Parliament. second amendment to the constitution. The ruling (UDMF) has been resisting the government's alliance currently has 324 lawmakers on its side. decision to hold local polls as people associated

The ruling government had called for a joint Whereas, the opposition led by the Unified with the big three parties were not happy with the

meeting to address the issue, however, no such Marxist–Leninist (UML) has 201 lawmakers on its LBRC's (Local Body Restructuring Commission) map

consensus was reached. The continued differences side. of local bodies. The UDMF accused the LBRC of

and the government's stance on the maintaining failing to work within the guidelines of the

the schedule of the local polls prior to the drafting of The ruling parties described the bill as their constitution with regard to redrawing the provincial

the Constitutional Amendment Bill could see response to address the demands of the Madhes- boundaries on the basis of ethnic population and

violent incidents in the southern fringes of the based parties. After the promulgation of the socio-economic conditions. Several protests took

country having a large Madhesi population.Constitution in September 2015, the Terai region place across the country against the proposal of the had seen violent agitations by the Madhesis. To Local Level Restructuring Commission (LLRC). The

Opposition to Local Level Restructuring Commission report and Constitution Amendment Bill staged across the country


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ajor cyber-attacks disrupt internet service company, they used on-premises DDoS mitigation Macross the Maldives for more than a week methods as well as global cloud solutions to reduce in the month of January. Three major Maldives the impact of the attacks and ensure service telecom companies, Dhiraagu, Ooredoo and continuity. Ooredoo said the disruption was not Raajje Online blamed degradation of service on related to the cyber attacks.Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks from unknown miscreants, but did not provide details Earlier, in November 2016, Dhiraagu and Ooredoo on the number of customers affected. issued a joint statement after cyber attacks brought

down Bank of Maldives and other web services DDoS attackers targeted web services with traffic hosted on Dhiraagu and Ooredoo servers. Around and overloading its servers. In November, DDOS 1100 cyber attacks cases were registered in 2016, attacks brought down the Bank of Maldives' world-wide. The biggest cyber attack was made on internet banking services. According to the Bangladesh Bank, as official's computers were country's telecoms companies, the current attacks hacked and the bank lost $81 million. began in the first week of January, and intensified on over the next few days, causing internet service to grind to a halt.

According to Ooredoo Maldives, its mobile data customers faced disruptions, but its fixed broadband service was not affected. As per the

Major cyber-attacks disrupt internet service across the Maldives


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Nepal

Myanmar

th thst nd rd February 5 – 7 : BIMSTEC member-nations' February 1 – 2 : 53 SAARC meeting to be held in meeting in Kathmandu Kathmandu

thFebruary 4 : Japan – Myanmar Festival to be held in Yangon

stFebruary 1 : Lawyers to boycott court proceedings in all courts

thFebruary 5 : Aung San Suu Kyi to mark 70th Mon

thFebruary 18 : Democracy Day National Day in the national capital

thFebruary 5 : Joint Democratic Madhesi Front to

thFebruary 24 : Mahashivaratri hold protests in Terai region th

February 12 : Union Day

thFebruary 26 : Ghyalpo Losar

This is the New Year of the Tibetans and Sherpas of Nepal which falls in February each year.

Nepal will host BIMSTEC's three levels of meetings Nepal will host the SAARC Program – Committee th thfrom February 5 to 7 . The meetings would be meeting, comprising of the Foreign Joint-

focused on reviewing the progress of the programs Secretaries of the SAARC member nations. launched in 14 different socio-economic The 2017 Japan-Myanmar Festival will be held on development sectors prioritized by the BIMSTEC for February 4 in Shwe Htut Tin grounds in Yangon.its seven member-countries.

Nepal Bar Association's lawyers will boycott pleadings in all the courts for three hours from 10

st thAfter the success of people's Movement II, king had am to 1 pm on February 1 , against the Judicial The 70 anniversary of Mon National Day will be returned all the state power and sovereignty to the Council's recommendation for the appointment of celebrated at Myanmar National Convention

thpeople. The people of Nepal celebrate this 80 High Court judges. Centre-2 in Nay Pyi Taw on February 5 ; President throughout the country. Htin Kyaw and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi are expected to attend.

Maha Shivaratri is a Hindu festival celebrated The Joint Democratic Madhesi Front (JDMF), an annually in honour of the god Shiva. There is a Maha alliance of seven Madhes-based parties, will stage Union Day is a public celebration in Myanmar held S h i va rat r i o n c e a ye a r i n l a te w i nte r mass protests at the headquarters of Terai districts as a memorial to the Panglong Agreement. The

th (February/March) and before the arrival of spring. on February 5 , demanding the implementation of union flag is carried across the country, taken to the a 'three-point' agreement it had signed on August capital cities of 7 States and 7 Divisions. At every

rd 3 with Prime Minister Prachanda. destination, there are celebrations and parades in

South Asia Event Calendar – February 2017


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The Sri Lankan National Day is celebrated with every town where the flay bearers stop to rest. official ceremonies and parades. Flag hoisting and celebrations mainly take place in Colombo. The day

The PML party was founded on this day by Liaquat celebrates the independence of Sri Lanka from Ali Khan and its breakaway faction PML (N) headed British rule in 1948.Observed as a day of protest agaisnt Indian control by Nawaz Sharif is the current party in power. over Kashmir, since 1990. In 2016 major terror

groups, Lashkare-e-Taiba (LeT), Harkat-ul-Jehad al-Islam (HuJI), Jaish-e-Mohammad (Jem) and

Valentine's day celebrations have been opposed by Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, have conducted sproradic religious activist groups in the past considering its The grand celebrations are planned to mark sixty attacks in the region in fight for Kashmir.western influence. Increase of Islamic State years of diplomatic relations between the two presence in Pakistan makes this day a flashpoint for countries. The celebrations will commence with a attacks. concert that President Maithripala Sirisena would

inaugurate at the Bandaranaike Memorial Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will hold protest th International Conference Hall (BMICH) in Colombo rallies across Pakistan on February 5 to mount

thon February 6 , the eve of the anniversary dating pressure on the Pakistan PM and his party PML(N),

Jeay Sindh Muttahida Mahaz (JSMM), a Sindh- back to 1957.over the Panamagate case.based nationalist party that is opposing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has called for a

thSindh-wide strike on February 20 to protest CPEC. The day marks the appointment of Buddha's chief

disciples and first Buddhist council after the death The eighth edition of the Karachi Literature of Lord Buddha. Celebrations are held around Festival will take place between February 10th and

th temples. 12 at the Beach Luxury Hotel in Karachi.

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

thFebruary 14 : Foundation Day of Pakistan Muslim League

thFebruary 5 : Kashmir Day

thFebruary 6 : Ceremonies to mark sixty years of th

February 14 : Valentine's Day diplomatic relations between the China and Sri Lanka

thFebruary 5 : Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to hold th

rallies across the country on February 5

thFebruary 20 : Strike called in Sindh province by Jeay Sindh Muttahida Mahaz

thth February 10 : Navam PoyaFebruary 10 : Eight Karachi Literature Festival to

commence

thFebruary 4 : National Day / Independence Day

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thFebruary 14 : Valentine's Day th

February 24 : Maha Shivaratri

thFebruary 25 : Anti-Rampal power plant protesters to stage countrywide sit-ins

stFebruary 1 : Three-day visit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas

thFebruary 6 : Foundation Day of Islamic Chahatra Shibir

V a l e n t i n e ' s d a y c e l e b r a t i o n s h a v e b een opposed by

Maha Shivaratri is a Hindu festival celebrated religious activist groups in the past.annually in honour of the God Shiva. Maha Shivaratri is in late winter (February/March) and before the arrival of spring. It is celebrated in the North-East and Central-Eastern parts of the National Committee to Protect Oil-Gas, Mineral country. Resources and Port-Power announced fresh action

programmes, including sit-in on streets, on th

February 25 , across the country as part of their campaign against setting up of Rampal power plant near the Sundarbans.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas arrives in st

Bangladesh February 1 for a three-day official visit aiming to further strengthen bilateral relations with Bangladesh.

The Islamic Chhatra Shibir is the student wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeI-B), which came into existence in 1941.

Bangladesh

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January Events and Incidents

rd§January 3 : Jharkhand:

th§January 4 : Jharkhand:

th§January 5 : Maharashtra:


th§January 5 : Odisha:


th§January 6 : Chhattisgarh:


A CPI-Maoist 'area commander' carrying a reward of INR 1.5 million on his head and wanted in three States was shot dead in an encounter with Police and CRPF at the Ramtandi forest in Ghatshila sub-division of East Singhbhum district.

the CPI-Maoist cadres at Pathal village in Chatra district allegedly killed two members of Shastra Peoples Morcha (SPM).

Gadchiroli Police's C-60 Commandos at Boteyjhari and Badhgaon forest in Gadchiroli district killed Deputy Commander of Kasansur Dalam involved in arson

rdattack at Surjagarh on December 23 , 2016. CPI-Maoist cadres in Dhanora Tehsil of Gadchiroli district allegedly

killed a surrendered Naxalite using an axe. Police in Senepuri forest in Nayagarh district arrested a militia member of

the CPI-Maoist, who was involved in the Chamundia beat-house torching case in July 2016. Five Maoists were arrested with arms and ammunition from Gumla

and Garhwa districts. Nine vehicles were set on fire by about 30 cadres of the CPI-Maoist

in Gondahur Police Station limits in Kanker district. The Maoists had threatened to stop the road laying work in between Maharashtra's Pendi village to Chhattisgarh's border. After the threat, the contractors from Maharashtra had parked their vehicles in the territory of Chhattisgarh.

Three Maoists, consisting of one commander rank cadre and two of them carrying cash reward on their heads, were arrested from separate places in Dantewada district.


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th§January 15 : Bihar:

th§January 15 : Bihar:




Suspected cadres of the CPI-Maoist set ablaze three construction vehicles at Ruam village near Chaibasa in East Singhbhum District. The attack was a reaction to the construction company's failure in paying levy.

Maoist 'zonal commander', who carried INR 1.5 million reward on his head, and was involved in the killings of one MLA and DSP surrendered before Khunti SP.

Five Maoists, including two commander-level cadres, were killed in two separate exchanges of fire during an operation launched by Chhattisgarh Police in Narayanpur district.

Cadres of the People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI) attacked workers and set ablaze equipment at a pipeline laying site of IOC in Khunti district.

Maoists belonging to Jharkhand Jan Sangharsh Mukti Morcha (JSJMM) attacked a road construction site in Bharno, Gumla district. More than 500 tribal residents of Ralegada panchayat, under the aegis of 'Malkangiri Zilla Adivasi Rayat Kuli Sangha', a frontal organisation of

CPI-Maoist took out a protest rally and dared the Government to hold elections in the area. The 'group commander', of the Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC), a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist, was killed in an encounter under

Chainpur Police station area of Palamu district. Two civilians were killed by the CPI-Maoist cadres in Gadchiroli district on suspicion of being police informers.

Maoists abducted four officials in charge of elections and a villager from a remote area in the Maoist-dominated Malkangiri district.Six security personnel injured in encounter with Maoists in Latehar district.

CPI-Maoist cadres set ablaze three vehicles involved in road construction work in West Singhbhum district. the CPI-Maoist cadres at Taringa village in West Singhbhum district killed two villagers. Police arrested six cadres of the CPI-Maoist along with arms and ammunition during a raid at Karmpur Bhataulia village in Muzaffarpur district. A CPI-Maoist cadre was killed and ammunition recovered in an encounter with security forces in Kandanar forest area in Bastar district. Maoists killed sarpanch of Masenar village, at his native place in Dantewada district. Three killed and injured in landmine blast triggered by Maoists in Narayanpur district.

Six commander level Maoists, carrying cash reward on them, surrendered in Kondagaon district.

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th§January 25 : West Bengal:


Around 15-20 armed rebels of the PLFI, a splinter group of a CPI-Maoist, set ablaze vehicles at the construction site near Latrtu Dam in Khunti district.

An 'area commander' of the PLFI, carrying a reward of INR 200,000 a CPI-Maoist operative carrying a reward of INR 50,000 surrendered in Khunti district.

The United States of America Consul General Katherine B Hadda sought a safe and secure environment for its nationals visiting Odisha in view of the rampant CPI-Maoist cadre's activities.

CPI-(Maoist) Bengal-Jharkhand- Odisha border commander and most wanted Maoist, Ranjit Pal and his wife surrendered to Kolkata Police.

A 6-foot Ganesha idol, perched on a hill in Dholkal area of Dantewada, went missing and was found in a damaged condition downhill. Police suspect that Maoists had tried to cause damage to the Ganesha idol.

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Maoists abduct four poll officials in Malkangiri; six security personnel injured in encounter with Maoists in Latehar district

Barely a month before the three-tier panchayat polls in the state are to be held, Maoists abducted four officials in charge of elections and a villager th

from a remote area in the Maoist-dominated Malkangiri district. Five local officials had, on January 11 , gone to Panasput panchayat in a stretch of 150-odd villages bordering Andhra Pradesh but cut off from Odisha Mainland by Balimela reservoir, for receiving nomination papers of the

th stcandidates contesting different posts in panchayat polls. The polls are slated to be held between February 13 and 21 . Left-wing extremism poses a major challenge before the police ahead of the polls. Several CPI activists, on the other hand, also claim that innocent tribals had been killed during anti Maoist operations in Kandhamal earlier in January.

The district of Malkangiri is remote and cut off from majority of state infrastructure. In October, last year 23 Maoists were killed in Odisha’s Malkangiri district itself. Hinting at a special anti-Maoist joint operation in the cut-off areas of Malkangiri district, Odisha DGP stated that all possible steps will be taken to foil the Maoists' call to boycott the ensuing three-tier panchayat polls in the state.

Meanwhile, at least six security personnel were injured in an IED blast which happened during an encounter with Maoists in the deep forest of th

Burha Pahari area of Jharkhand's Latehar district on January 13 . A joint team of CoBRA battalion of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Latehar district had entered the forest areas of Burha Pahari, which shares borders with Chhattisgarh and neighbouring Garhwa district of Jharkhand, following tip-off about presence of naxal squad in the area. Two Assistant Commandants of CRPF, one head constable and two Sub-Inspectors and a Jharkhand police jawan were injured.

Burha Pahari is considered to be a bastion for Maoists, who utilise its difficult terrain and deep forests to escape the security forces. In the past, the

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police, in association with the CRPF, have carried out several operations in the area recovering explosives and other items belonging to the Maoists.

Andhra Pradesh: Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister gets additional security in view of Maoist threat

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has been accorded additional security by the Centre in view of a Maoist threat. Naidu is currently permitted 'Z plus' category security. The three-tier security includes NSG commandos apart from Andhra Pradesh police's Intelligence Security Wing.

The security was deployed when reports emerged that Maoists were keeping an eye on the movements of Naidu, especially during his visits to the national capital. Maoists were reportedly planning to attack Naidu at Andhra Bhavan in Delhi, in the garb of media persons. Andhra Bhavan was also alerted over the loopholes in his security.

The outfit had threatened a suicide attack on Naidu and his son. The Andhra Pradesh police received information from the Centre about the increased threat perception following the killing of 30 Maoists in an encounter along the Andhra-Odisha border area in October last year.

stPreviously, Naidu had survived a claymore mine attack by Maoists on October 1 , 2003 in Tirupati. Naidu, who was then the Chief Minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh, had sustained injuries in the attack. According to reports, the Home Ministry has also asked Andhra Pradesh police to take additional security measures in view of the increased threat perception.

Naxal trends


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West Bengal: Maoist leader and wife surrender to the police in Bengal

thOn 26 January, a top Maoist leader Ranjit Pal, who was in charge of Odisha-Jharkhand-Bengal states and a senior member of the military wing of the Maoists, had surrendered to special task force of Kolkata police with his wife Anita Pal.

Ranjit alone faces over 50 cases related to terror, murder and extortion in Purulia, Bankura and West Midnapore districts of Bengal and Jharkhand. He was also responsible for the murder of former MP Sunil Mahato at Bakulia in East Singhum. His wife Anita, who joined the Maoists from Nandigram in 2007, too has 12 cases pending against her.

Pal was a head executor of several incidents of Naxal violence in the region. Whiles many senior Maoists were either arrested or surrendered, Pal had managed to survive in the area for a long time. The most wanted Maoist leader and his wife said their reasons for picking up arms have been resolved by the Mamata Banerjee government and that poor health and necessity to look after ailing parents pushed them to lay down arms.

As per the Bengal Police, over 290 Maoists have surrendered in the state over the past two years. The Maoists held sway in large tracts of West Midnapore, Purulia and Bankura districts between 2008 and 2011. With the elimination of their leader Kishenji in the winter of 2011 and subsequent surrender by several senior leaders, the movement fizzled out in the state.

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India

Bangladesh

Afghanistan

th§January 24 :

th§January 16 :

thth §January 28 : §January 17 :

th§January 27 :

th§January 6 :

th§January 13 :

th§January 10 :

rd§January 23 :

th§January 15 :

At least 36 suspected IS oepratives were killed and around 20 others were wounded during the operations by Afghan Intelligence Bureau reported that at least 50 persons forces in Arghandab district of southern Zabul province.from India had allegedly joined the Islamic State in Afghanistan.

At least seven militants loyal to the Islamic State were The National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested killed in a drone attack in Achin district, which targeted their Mohammad Irfan from Hyderabad for his alleged connections with hideouts in the eastern Nangarhar province. an Islamic State module.

The NIA formally charged a woman, Yasmeen th

Mohammed Zahid, who was arrested on July 30 last year at Delhi Neo-Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen's leader Nurul Islam alias airport, for trying to leave India for Afghanistan to join the Islamic

Marjan and another unidentified extremist were killed by Counter-State. She was the second woman in India to be arrested for alleged Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit in Mohammadpur links with the IS.Beribadh area of Dhaka.

Bangladesh Police arrested an Islamist militant, Jahangir Alam alias Rajib alias Gandhi, accused of being one of the Twin bombings near Parliament in Kabul killed at least mastermind of the Dhaka cafe attack as well as for plotting murders 38 people, while a powerful blast at a government guesthouse in of religious minorities including two Hindu priests.southern Kandahar left at least seven dead, including five

Two Bangladeshis arrested in Malaysia for suspected diplomats from the UAE. link to Islamic State cell. Suspected Islamic State militants kidnapped 12

teachers and two other staff of a religious school in Haska Mina district of the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar.

Islamic State South Asia Tracker – 2017January


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Malaysian Special Branch's Counter-Terrorism leaders linked to banned outfit Ansarullah Bangla could turn inward-looking and decreasing relations Division busted an upcoming IS cell in Sabah, Team (now Ansar al-Islam), New JMB, Shahid Hamza with other countries, especially restricting the flow which the accused planned to use as a transit point Brigade and Bangladesh Jihadi Group are hiding in of human capital across borders.for sending IS members to the Philippines. The Malaysia. Last year, Singapore police arrested Malaysian police arrested four people, including a several dozen Bangladeshis for their suspected link 31-year-old Filipino man; a 27-year-old Malaysian to terror group IS and planning to carry out attacks woman and two Bangladeshis, in separate raids upon their return to Bangladesh.

th thbetween January 13 and 19 in Kuala Lumpur and Sabah. Preliminary investigation revealed that the Several such arrests have been made in other Asian cell, led by Dr Mahmud, had combined with an Abu countries. These subsequent arrests highlight one Sayyaf group headed by Isnilon, which had recurring trend, IS targets include young adults pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakar Al from middle class or poor economic background, Baghdadi. very often from developing countries. Malaysia is a

major destination for the Bangladeshi jobseekers, IS threat in the Asian continent has been with approximately four lakh Bangladeshis are now increasing. In August last year, Malaysian Police working in the country. arrested a Bangladeshi for smuggling weapons for an international terror group. They deported him The arrests so far in India, Malaysia, Singapore,

ndto Bangladesh on September 2 and a local court Bangladesh; have forced nation states to rethink th

sent him to prison on September 4 . According to their idea of security. As a result of such the Bangladesh police, a number of top militant international arrests, in the near future, countries

Bangladesh: Two Bangladeshi arrested in Malaysia for suspected links to IS



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thOn January 17 , NIA arrested one more accused households. Mohammed Irfan for his role in the IS terror conspiracy module. NIA investigation revealed In November 2016, India's Ministry of Home Affairs that Mohd Irfan, believed to be part of the informed the Parliament that as many as 68 Hyderabad module busted mid of last year, along supporters and sympathizers of IS had been with the other accused took part in searching of arrested by either the National Investigation Agency hideouts, for their physical training. Investigation (NIA) or the state security agencies. The highest also revealed that Mohd. Irfan took an oath of number of arrests was made from Maharashtra, allegiance in favour of Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, the followed by Kerala, Telangana, West Bengal, Uttar self-proclaimed Caliph of the IS. Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Jammu and

Kashmir, and Madhya Pradesh. Another disturbing The trend of IS sympathisers arrests in India, points revelation from the Investigations by the National to a worrying trend. According to NIA reports, out Investigation Agency into activities of IS was that of the total arrests made in 2016; 28 were in 18-25 more educated youth were getting attracted years group, 20 between 25 to 40 years and four towards the terror outfit as it has been effectively were above 40 years. In addition, most of the using the social media to radicalise Indian youth.arrested youth were engineers, post- graduates, or diploma holders. This breaks the claims that IS supporters are illiterates from impoverished background. The number of supporters arrested so far, belong to educated, middle-income

India: Suspected IS supporter arrested in Hyderabad



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thSuspected Islamic State militants, on January 15 , the Afghanistan authorities, no more than 3,000 IS entered the school premises in Haska Mina district fighters reside in Afghanistan. Afghanistan in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar and considers Taliban a much bigger threat than IS. abducted twelve teachers and two administration However, incidents of IS atrocities on the civilians officials. Kidnapping for both criminal ransom and reveal that the Afghanistan government may be political gain is a major problem in Afghanistan. underestimating IS presence in the country. The Most victims are Afghans, although foreigners situation in Nangarhar, Kot province indicates that have also been targeted. the IS has gained some ground in the country.

However, the dominance of Taliban in the eastern Afghan forces, backed by U.S. drone strikes, have and southern provinces, the areas IS militants are been battling IS' presence in the eastern province. looking to control, ensures limited growth of IS In August 2016, NATO's top commander in the fighters. Taliban is extremely territorial about the country said the joint U.S.-Afghan operation had areas it controls in the country, and is known to have killed 300 IS fighters in two weeks. However, in fought IS supports to maintain its control over 2016 itself, IS claimed its first attacks in certain areas. The fight between the Taliban and IS, Afghanistan, the largest being the June 2016 along with the one between the government and suicide bombing of a protest by the Shiite Hazara Taliban and IS and government, adds to the already minority in Kabul, the Afghan capital. It left at least volatile security situation of the country. 80 people dead and more than 230 wounded.

IS is reported has set up several recruitment and training camps in the southern province of Afghanistan, which borders Pakistan. According to

Afghanistan: Suspected IS fighters kidnap twelve teachers in Nangarhar province



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GST: What Is Happening

The political side of things

The economics of GST

The recent decision of the GST council regarding the collection in India and comprise a higher share of states to have assess and administer 90% of the tax the total tax as compared to developed countries. In a historic stride, Members of Parliament cutting payers under RS.1.5 crore has been termed to be The current tax system has driven businesses to across party lines, unanimously passed the Goods unlawful by the All India Association of Group B restructure and model their supply chains and and Services Constitutional amendment bill in Central Excise Gazetted Executive Officers. Hasty systems owing to multiplicity of taxes. The passing August 2016. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) is decision such as these can result in increased of the GST bill is herald as a reform that will aid in the based on the “destination principle” – where the judicial scrutiny and take away the positives ease of doing business and re-engineer business tax applies at the point where final consumption expected from the new tax system. The mandatory process of companies.happens. While this puts pressure on the deadline of September 16th should be adhered to consumer, the single tax replaces the prevailing as any further delay not only takes the shine off the cascading tax system, which leads to a lower tax pro-business reform, it also affects the tax earnings rate. The GST is India's attempt to create a truly federal of states.law by creating a harmonized tax system and

However, since then India's increasing growth rate creates a true 'Union of States' as envisaged in the at an average of 7% has been hit by Constitution. demonetization, bringing IMF predictions down to The centre–state relations are at a contentious Pockets of weakness have always existed in the 6.6% for the fiscal year 2017 and is further being point owing to the issue of dual control, sharing of Indian economy, however, with demonetization threatened by delays in implementation of the powers and the division of assesses in respect to and its cash crush, there has been a further Goods and Services Tax (GST), pushed to July 2017. distribution and collection of taxes. The major economic slowdown, becoming a challenge to the Timely implementation of the GST is crucial for concern arises out of states, such as Meghalaya, GST agenda. The overall impact of demonetization India to bounce back in the second quarter of the Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, having a large on black money is still unclear and will remain to be 2017. industrial base and smaller populations, as the so unless other reforms that streamline the taxation

destination principle affects their income from system and reduce unnecessary regulations. Indirect taxes are almost 34% of the total tax taxes. Predictions have been made for an economic

The Goods and Service Tax – An Overview

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bounce back by the second quarter of 2017, slightly negative impact. For FMGC sector the provided the hurdles for a GST roll out are beneficiaries will be companies like Blue Star, overcome and efficiently implemented. Hitachi, Voltas and its likes, but will negatively affect

companies that enjoy tax exemptions. For IT & ITES The unified tax system is likely to positively impact that earns a large part from exports will too be the organized manufacturing sector, the affected due to exports being exempt under GST. automobiles sector and the Make in India However, litigation around taxability of canned campaign. Automobiles industry has been most software will end up under the GST neutralizing the affected by demonetization and hence pegs hopes difference between goods and services.on GST. The removal of interstate barriers

required for filing returns under the GST regime. facilitating the free flow of goods and services is Businesses should also look into implementing GST likely to reduce logistics costs. The logistics sector Lack of adaptation mechanisms, trained staff and compliant invoices along with the service is largely comprised in the unorganized sector. issue of double registration can increase costs and accounting codes to be specified by the With the GST coming into effect, an overall compliances with the implementation of the GST. government.It is hard to estimate the exact impact positive impact is expected to integrate the While the migration of assesses is underway, one of GST, but with the reduction of the pressure of fragmented sector and increase growth can gear up to ensure a smooth transition and cascading taxes, it is likely to overcome the slump opportunities for organized players. Other sectors implementation of change.post demonetization. Despite many pitfalls that such as consumer durables are expected to get a may occur prior and during the implementation of boost with the Seventh Pay Commission coming GST identification and enrolment should be done the GST, the country awaits the 'one market' bill to into force while the GST will reduce the price gap well before the roll out through GST enrolment make its arangetram in India, hopefully by the first between the unorganized and organized sector. application. Ensure appropriate training of the of July.

finance, tax, sales & procurement teams in business FMGC and IT & ITES sector will see a neutral or houses. Ensure accounting software is up to date as

Preparation for GST

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Amika is part of the Information Services Team. She is currently pursuing her Masters in Diplomacy, Law and Business from OP Jindal University.

- Amika Bawa

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