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Transcript of Personal Preparation -Read the wall policies DO -Personal fitness under way again -72-hour kit? I am...
Personal Preparation
- Read the wall policies DO- Personal fitness under way again- 72-hour kit? I am working on mine again.- Choices about where and how to live <Are you willing to vote
for taxes to pay for codes, better buildings, better public safety services?>
- Slippers under the bed DONE>
- Situational awareness – water storage tank plan- Complement (not compliment) or replace local authority- Phone ‘apps’ vs other ‘word of mouth’ yes, reluctantly
Is that a confusing picture in a real world? <yes>
Make gradual transition from quakes and waves
to vulcanism
Which one is the real source of trouble for humans,
magma/volcunism or quaking?
The role of lectures:
1. Comment on the book2. Evaluate learning3. Verify completion of college credit4. Learning is the goal – teachers are not the
‘learners’ - - students are. 5. Scholarship is about support ($), reputation,
and development of career capability, even if no one ever asks your GPA
Reading the book is vital.
History Channel (Thursday) indicated a potential warning time
of up to two minutes
However, consider that the longer your warning time, the less you will
need it. Those who need it the most will tend to have the shortest
possible warning time.
Wave Types
- Oscillation – wind-driven (or minor disturbances)no net movement of water
- Translation – mass movement of water (quake, asteroid)- Tidal – ‘bore tide’- Seiche – alternate term for earth movement that pushes water, such
as Lake Geneva, Lake Como, Hebgen Lake (quake lake), and , North Sea (and Netherlands)
- Amplitude, wave length (period), trough, crest, run-up, swash- Waves of translation (and bores) do not always recede – some never,
and others too late to fit our need for survival.
Tsunami – “harbor wave”
2004 – 9.1 Sumatran quake – largest on Earth in 40 yearsWater wave as secondary factor? 305,000 dead
Direct quake deaths?
Alaskan quake of 1964 – about 100 deadChilean quake of 1960 – a few thousand dead
Fukushima, Japan quake of 2011 – 25,000 dead
How well correlated are similar magnitudes to casualties?
Why would sensors be more established in the Pacific basin?
- Historical pattern of quakes- Money, influence, science- Water as a connector – transmitter of energy
Sensors: sea floor – shaking/displacementSurface bouys – compare change in oscillationsGPS between established points
Notice that the book uses ‘seismic waves’ to describe ‘shock’ wave as well
Tsunami wave
Tsunami wave
Earth movement
Earth movement
Fault
As tsunami waves ‘stumble’ on the shoreline:Wave Length Converts to Amplitude
450 mph (500?) slows to 40 mph
Wave length of 60-100 miles converts to a few miles or less
Amplitude increases from a few inches to many feet
How difficult might it be to create a “run-up” map and public safety
procedures for alerts?
A good ePort might look at phone apps and Web search for ‘run up’ map
availability for coastal communities.
How excited might the Chamber of Commerce be to advertise run-up
maps? <Jaws Mayor – “Ok so we had someone eaten by a shark.”
Convert Miles Per Second to Miles Per Hour
Miles per second x 60 = miles per minuteMiles per minute x 60 = miles per hour
P wave: 3.7 mps = 3,600 x 3.7 = 13,320 mphS wave: 1.9 mps = 60 x 60 x 1.9 = 6,840 mph
History Channel said P waves travel at 15,000 mph. It’s OK either way.
- Shock wave in rock or dirt
- Compared to ‘surface’ wave in water
- P waves – compression compared to S that fails in fluids
- History Channel interviewees sometimes did not distinguish between forecast and prediction
- History Channel contradicted the textbook by saying that S waves (secondary) with their lateral motions, are the ones that turn into S (surface waves) - - not Primary waves.
- By definition, P and S waves cause no damage because they
are not where people and buildings are. When they arrive, they become something else (surface waves)
Questions:
Is a P-wave based signal a type of “prediction”, even though the quake is
already under way? <yes>
Is it true that the more you might benefit from a P-wave warning, the less
time you will get? <yes, why?>
Compare Magnitudes: Fukushima and Sumatra quakes = 9.1M to 9.0M (est.)and Chilean 9.5M
• ‘back’ side of ‘Ring of Fire’• Burmese microplate moved 65 feet along 900+
miles – compare to SL area faults (not subductions)• No sensors• No warning devices• (compare to California – 2013, sensors on land, • but lacking funds for implementation)• What is a ‘megathrust’?
Effective warning requires:
1. Instrument detection2. Calculate Magnitude3. Determine type of movement4. Determine potential targets & local vulnerabilities5. Warning delivery:
- from measuring station- to ‘street level’
6. All done in time for people to react usefully
Much has been automated, but gaps remain.
Local Conditions- Shoreline, steepness, stability, angle, vegetation- Population concentration and readiness- Time of day, season, weather- Infrastructure – buildings (codes), transportation, technical
resources and social organization- Response capability – run-up maps- Community wealth and technology- Crowding during evacuation is a common experience
In the Fukushima area, a small town mayor was holding a meeting on emergency preparation and ended up on a flag pole
www.myrvstuff.com
Concentration of energy into narrow beachRocky band along escape route -- stream flow backing up somewhere upstreamNarrow stairs -- crowded stairs. Where are your kids and your flip-flops?Difficult ascent through terrain and vegetationWarning time and method? <siren in the wind or during a party>Tidal condition? Darkness? Inland may actually be lower ground in some placesAllred’s Rule?
P 117 – some people evacuated to mountain tops thousands of feet above sea level – others went down to the beach to watch.
How to View Evacuation Routes
Allred’s rule for situational awareness- What are local hazards and history?- What about RVs and chatterboxes in the way?- What are local rules and resources?- How well prepared am I to move (flip-flops and kids too)
- For tsunami wave, some combination of:- One mile inland- 100 feet above sea level
Types of Warnings
- Animal behavior (including elephants)- School girl observation of ocean retreat- Scientist observation of beach rising- Tarot cards?- Change in gases, fluids, precursor quakes,
landslides- Science generally requires corroboration and
replicability.- Which of the above might meet tests of science?
Volcano activity can be a precursor to a quake, but quakes are almost
certainly precursors to volcanic eruptions
Volcanoes, uplifts and Trenches
sediments
Slab pull downward re-melts to feed the volcano
Volcano or high mountain
Ocean trench
Subduction zone
Ring of Fire – Ring of Volcanoes
Evaluate these three statements 2. More than 500,000 people live under active threat of vulcanism?
Hawaiian hotspot track shift.
3. About 75% of all volcanoes are on the Ring of Fire?
1. Volcanoes don’t kill people? <Ring of Buildings>
Natural Service Functions
New land areaNew soil-forming & commercial mineralsNew land area above sea levelScenic beautyWhat’s the difference between:Geothermal energy - Milgro Nurseries; and,Geo-exchange - Murray High School?
Vulcanism – magma reaching near the surface along major transitions
between world-class tectonic plates, and at hot-spots
At most locations, what substance creates the transition between magma and the surface? <12>
How many are there in Utah? <1,500>
Average distance from hypocenter or focus to epicenter (surface)
10 miles
How long will the shock wave (P) reaches the nearest possible
seismograph?
Difference between surface rupture and hypocenter may be substantial
SLCC Redwood campus
Notice the lack of magma chambers. What is the transition substance between magma and the surface?
<water>
How does that differ from geo-exchange?
How many of each are there in SL area?
History Channel also used ‘prediction’ and ‘forecast’
interchangeably.
Does the weathercast?
Do you?
Also, page 67 discusses the wise man who build his house upon the rock . . .
or was it sand, or was it clay?
What is the problem with clay?(Loma Prieta and Nimitz freeway, 1989)
Slow quakes
Calculate how much inadequate creep would lead to a recurrence
interval of 30 years for mega-quakes that release M8.0 or
greater energy?
<Hint: recent mega-quakes have shown earth movements of 10-60 feet, laterally and/or vertically>
Assume 10 feet of mega-movement every 30 years:
1/3 foot (four inches) per year of inadequate ‘slow quake’ or creep per year.
So, a one-to four inch annual creep along a major plate boundary perhaps ought to be
more like four-eight inches per year to prevent mega-quake build-up.
As such, four or more inches of movement per year would, at the
least, mean major quakes annually at many “Ring of Fire” locations.
Perhaps we should stop trying so hard to predict quakes, and simply
prepare for them.
Reverse the concept that modern life is turning hazards into disasters
and disasters into catastrophes:
instead, by making hard choices to fund better infrastructure and
building practices, we turn catastrophes back into merely
‘cracks in the sidewalk.’
The reality is, we want pizza and beer on a Friday night.
Building codes are just too expensive for now. Do it later.
Notice pictures on page 102: Many areas remained inundated –
water did not go back out because the land submerged or washed away.
Otherwise, community ‘run-up’ maps are helpful. Few communities have them and fewer want to advertise
them.
Evacuation routes – problematic?
Future solution:New city hall with 1,000 person
capacity, flow-through main floor, and emergency supply storage.
Problems:1. Emphasis on future (someday)
2. Narrow staircases on two sides.3. Too many people in town.
Better solution:1. Personal fitness
2. Situational awareness – adapt to conditions to reach higher ground3. Promote and use alert systems.
Are we Prepared?
10% ordinances up-to-date30% ordinances enforced
15% buildings retrofitted or new80% implemented properly
0.1 x 0.3 x 0.15 x 0.8 = ?<0.0036 or 1/3 of one percent>
Wasatch Front Mountains
East side Wasatch – igneous ‘fire rock’ mixed with old sedimentary
West side Oquirrhs – sedimentary uplift infused with igneous intrusions
Lava beds in southern Idaho
old sediments (sandstone) with fossil fuels – oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand
Volcanoes andcinder cones
Lava beds in southern Utah
Geothermal heat on west side of Utah
Wasatch Plateau – south toward St. George
- sedimentary with fossil fuels
- 12,000 foot tall volcanoes and small cinder cones
further south
Lava beds at south and north ends of Utah
(with Yellowstone ‘hot spot’ and caldera ‘scar’ running across Idaho)
Old sediments dominate eastern Utah, with fossil fuels
(oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand)
Pyroclastic Flows(you can say ‘tephra’ also)
fast-moving streams of hot gas, ash, rock fragments
and often steam/water/mud
Unzen, Japan built a flow channel for volcanic flows. It was severely over-topped in 1991.
At least they tried.
It is easy to wonder about people in Unzen, but truth is 500,000,000 people live near an active volcano – many living on the flanks or in
debris flow pathways.
Why?
Natural Service Functions- new soil minerals
- nice views- crowding elsewhere
- industrial minerals and metals- often a nice climate and/or near
oceansLand prices are lower after each
catastrophe!
Downside of life near a volcano?
Lahars – mud, hot or cold
gases = CO2, chloric, metallic, sulfuric
rocks, bomblets, ash
2/3 of all volcanoes are located on the ‘Ring of Fire’
magma = molten rockasthenosphere – melts and flows
when close enough to crust to relieve pressure – otherwise solid
metal
Rock samples – crust is lightweightmostly oxygen, silica, aluminum
plutonic – granite, rhyolite
mafic – low in silica – ‘flow’felsic – high in silica – ‘blow’
Summarize
Earth crust is made of dried, cooled and crystallized rock that was once molten.
The more that magma contain silicates (sticky & viscous) and gases (expansive,popping), the more an eruption will
be explosive.
Heavier, less volative magma will tend to flow slowly over the ground (lava beds)
or cool off deep under the earth and never reach the surface – plutonics
(granite, rhyolite, etc.)
CompareStrato – steep, explosive ‘blow’
Shield – shallow slope, slower flowDome – very explosive
Cinder cones – small (popcorn)Lava beds, heavy, slow
Plutonics – crystals that never made it to the surface
Hot spot - caldera
Kratatoa – changed world weatherMajor quakes changed our clocks
Why does Krakatoa look small right now?
Viscosity = stickiness
- more silica, more viscositymore gas – more pressure
more stickiness plus more gas = more explosive