Permit supply from the CDM Nico van der Linden ECN Policy Studies, the Netherlands.
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Permit supply from the CDM Nico van der Linden ECN Policy Studies, the Netherlands
Transcript of Permit supply from the CDM Nico van der Linden ECN Policy Studies, the Netherlands.
Permit supply from the CDM
Nico van der Linden
ECN Policy Studies, the Netherlands
Approach to constructing Marginal Abatement Cost(MAC) curve for the Non-Annex I region
1. Gathering potential & cost information from country abatement costing studies– Information from 30 non-Annex countries have been collected covering some 80 % of
total non-Annex I region. – Simple extrapolation method to account for the missing countries
2. Developing database on GHG reduction options– Potential and cost information on some 550 reduction options
3. Assessing the CDM-transaction costs– Costs related to bringing the reduction option under the CDM
4. Constructing Marginal Abatement Cost curves for non-Annex I region as a whole and for selected sectors and countries– Sectoral curves for electricity sector, rest of industry, household sector, agricultural
products & forestry and transport sector– MAC curves for China, India, Brazil and South Africa
MAC curve for the whole non-Annex I region
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
Cumulative CO2 and CH4 emissions reduction (MtCO2eq)
Ab
ate
me
nt
co
sts
[$
/tC
O2
eq
]
Main findings
Total identified GHG reduction potential in 2010 in the non-Annex region as a whole amounts to 2.1 GtCO2 equivalent
– Most reduction potential (62 per cent) in the power sector (energy efficiency, fuel switch) and demand side energy efficiency measures
Approximately 1.9 GtCO2 eq. is feasible at costs of up to US$ 4 per tCO2eq reduction
– Large potential with low costs makes CDM attractive instrument for countries with GHG emissions reduction targets
Large fraction of identified potential can be realized in a limited number of non-Annex I countries. Most reduction potential has been identified in China and India (some 60 per cent)
Limitations to the study
The estimated reduction potential should be viewed with caution:
Different assumptions and approaches are used across the studies which make it difficult to aggregate the country results:
– base year
– discount rate
– fuel prices
– baseline
Country abatement studies are not always comprehensive; studies do not always consider all reduction options
