Permian Global Access Pipeline - pgap.com · Building a low-cost global gas business 4 Pipeline...
Transcript of Permian Global Access Pipeline - pgap.com · Building a low-cost global gas business 4 Pipeline...
PGAPPermian Global Access
Pipeline
Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2018
Cautionary statements
The information in this presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of
Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking
statements. The words “anticipate,” “assume,” “believe,” “budget,” “estimate,” “expect,”
“forecast,” “initial,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,” “should,” “will,” “would,” and
similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking
statements in this presentation relate to, among other things, future contracts, contract terms and
margins, our business and prospects, future costs, prices, financial results, liquidity and financing,
regulatory and permitting developments, future demand and supply affecting LNG and general
energy markets and the closing of, and the achievement of anticipated benefits from, our natural
gas property acquisition.
Our forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and analyses made by us in light of our
experience and our perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future
developments, and other factors that we believe are appropriate under the circumstances. These
statements are subject to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause
actual results to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or implied
by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those described in the “Risk
Factors” section of Exhibit 99.1 to our Current Report on Form 8-K/A filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on March 15, 2017 and other filings with the SEC, which are
incorporated by reference in this presentation. Many of the forward-looking statements in this
presentation relate to events or developments anticipated to occur numerous years in the future,
which increases the likelihood that actual results will differ materially from those indicated in such
forward-looking statements. In addition, the acquisition, exploration and development of natural
gas properties involve numerous risks and uncertainties, including the risks that we will assume
unanticipated liabilities associated with the assets to be acquired and that the performance of the
assets will not meet our expectations due to operational, geologic, regulatory, midstream or other
issues. It is possible that the acquisition will not be completed on the terms or at the time expected,
or at all.
The forward-looking statements made in or in connection with this presentation speak only as of the
date hereof. Although we may from time to time voluntarily update our prior forward-looking
statements, we disclaim any commitment to do so except as required by securities laws.
This presentation contains information about projected EBITDA of Tellurian. EBITDA is not a financial
measure determined in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”),
should not be viewed as a substitute for any financial measure determined in accordance with
GAAP and is not necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies. It
would not be possible without unreasonable efforts to reconcile the projected non-GAAP
information presented herein to net income, the most directly comparable GAAP financial
measure. Similarly, projected future cash flows as set forth herein may differ from cash flows
determined in accordance with GAAP.
Reserves and resourcesEstimates of non-proved reserves or resources are based on more limited information, and are
subject to significantly greater risk of not being produced, than proved reserves.
Non-GAAP financial measuresForward looking statements
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Who we are
Building a low-cost global gas business
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Pipeline
Liquefaction
Marketing
Upstream 11,620 acres in the Haynesville with 1.4 Tcf resource
~$7 billion(1) of pipeline infrastructure projects in development
~$15 billion of liquefaction infrastructure in development
International delivery of LNG cargoes started in 2017
Driftwood Holdings partnership – integrated, low-cost
Note: (1) HGAP and PGAP projects are in early stages and remain under review.
▪ Tellurian will offer equity interest in Driftwood
Holdings
▪ Driftwood Holdings will consist of a Production
Company, a Pipeline Network and an LNG
Terminal (~27.6 mtpa)
▪ Equity will cost ~$1,500 per tonne
▪ Customer/Partner will receive equity LNG at
tailgate of Driftwood LNG terminal at cost
▪ Variable and operating costs expected to be
~$3.00/mmBtu FOB (including maintenance)
▪ Tellurian will manage and operate the project
Business model
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Tellurian
Marketing
Pipeline
Network
Production
Company
Equity ownership ~40%
~16 mtpa
~12 mtpa
Customer/Partner
~60%
Customers
100%
Nasdaq: TELL
LNG
Terminal
Tellurian will retain ~12 mtpa
and ~40% of the assets
Driftwood Holdings
Driftwood Holdings’ operating costsTotal cost of ~$3/mmBtu locks in low cost of supply
$0.88
$0.36
$0.79
$0.22
$2.25
$0.75
$3.00
Drilling and
completion(1)
Operating Gathering,
processing and
transportation(2)
Contingency Delivered
cost
Liquefaction
cost
Total
Sources: Wood Mackenzie, Tellurian Research.
Notes: (1) Drilling and completion based on well cost of $10.2 million, 15.5 Bcf EUR, and 75.00% net revenue interest (“NRI”) (8/8ths).
(2) Gathering, processing and transportation includes transportation cost to Driftwood pipeline to market.
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Upstream cost
$/mmBtu
Liquefaction cost
(1)
(2)
Tellurian Pipeline Network
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Driftwood Pipeline
Capacity, Bcf/d 4.0Cost, $ billions $2.2 Length, miles 96
Diameter, inches 48Compression, HP 274,000Status FERC approval pending
Haynesville Global Access Pipeline
Capacity, Bcf/d 2.0Cost, $ billions $1.4Length, miles 200Diameter, inches 42Compression, HP 23,000Status Preliminary routing
Permian Global Access Pipeline
Capacity, Bcf/d 2.0Cost, $ billions $3.7Length, miles 625
Diameter, inches 42Compression, HP 258,000Status Preliminary routing
Bringing low-cost gas to Southwest Louisiana
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Permian overviewWithout pipes, it’s just good rock
Permian basin: the big long
▪ Approximately 400,000 drilling locations
― Most forecasts drill no more than 30% of these
locations by 2050
▪ 20 potentially available stacked plays
▪ ~200 tcf of gas estimated produced by 2050
▪ +$40 bn/year in CAPEX by 2025
▪ Multi-generational
▪ Rock is not the constraint
▪ Economics driven by oil production and NGL
recovery
Too much of a good thing?
Sources: Berkeley Research Group (BRG), Goldman Sachs (GS)
Notes: BRG forecast assumes $55/bbl oil price, does not include Alpine High volumes; Goldman Sachs (GS) assumes WTI price of $52/bbl oil,
$3.00/mmBtu natural gas; production split of 57% oil, 23% NGLs, and 20% natural gas
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0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
2009201120132015201720192021202320252027202920312033203520372039
Bcf/d
Permian dry gas production
Midland Basin - BRG Delaware Basin - BRG
Permian Other - BRG Total production - GS
Total - BRG
“Permania”Hottest basin in the world as unconventionals not just a wildcatter’s game anymore
▪ $23 billion in CAPEX by independent E&P companies expected in Permian Basin in 2018…
▪ …but the IOCs are ramping up spending as investors clamor for resources that can respond to price signals faster than offshore projects
▪ Exxon:
― Permian mentioned 47x on Analyst Day call
― “Everyone is talking about the Permian”
― “It’s still early in the game”
― “First 3-mile lateral”
― “30 rigs this year”
▪ Chevron:
― Permian mentioned 27x on Q2 earnings call
― “Just keeps getting better”
― Production of 500,000 boepd by end of 2020, with 650,000 boepd by end of 2022
― $3.3 billion of capex in 2018 – 1/5th of overall total
▪ Shell:
― Shale is focus of “future growth opportunities”
― “It’s a big growth engine...I think we are emerging to be a strong player”
Sources: Independent E&P capex estimate from Criterion Research; Bloomberg transcripts, Houston Chronicle
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Silver in the gold mine
▪ Natural gas does not meaningfully affect cash
flow at $3.00/Mcf
▪ Third-tier product behind oil and NGLs
▪ Current forward curves for both liquids and
natural gas mean the economics of liquids will
continue to drive drilling decisions well into the
future
― Waha basis will only make this worse
▪ As takeaway constraint tightens, natural gas
economics will not impact drilling unless shut-ins
occur
Pioneer’s situation demonstrates Permian economics driven by liquids
Source: Pioneer Natural Resources investor presentation, 3/1/2018
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(1.00)
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
15.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Bcf/d
North Mexico East West PGAP Total active takeaway Production - GS Production - RBN Production - SocGen Production - TPH
Hurricane Permian is just gearing up...Permian producers running into takeaway constraints faster than anticipated...
Source: Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo Equity Research, RBN Energy LLC (RBN), Berkeley Research Group (BRG), Societe Generale (SocGen),
TudorPickeringHolt (TPH)
Note: Mexico active takeaway capacity assumes less than 50% utilization
Growing Mid-Continent
volumes encroached,
pushed out of Midwest by
NE production, but
takeaway options
remained
Mexico seasonal
demand increases,
but infrastructure
constraints on the
other side limit
demand pull
KMI/DCP Gulf Coast
Express comes online
and Mexico
consumption grows,
but Permian
production outpaces
takeaway growth
New pipeline needed
in 2021…but to
where?
1 2 3 4
1 2
3 4
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Active takeaway capacity Production estimates
Waha
Hub
South LAKaty/Ship
Agua Dulce
Haynesville
Perryville
Transco St 85
Corpus
Sabine PassCameronDriftwood
?
-$0.26
-$0.25
-$0.28
$-.05
Freeport
...and will impact Texas Gulf Coast hardest2023
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-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Bcf/d
Local production Northern inbound Permian inbound Existing load Outbound to Mexico CCLNG 1-2 CCLNG 3
Agua Dulce is not the answerKicking the basis 400 miles south
Sources: RBN Energy, Tellurian estimates, Wells Fargo
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2 3
1 Inbound flows from north offset
increase in demand from
Corpus Christi trains 1-2, but
market is largely dependent
on Mexican demand
2 Permian gas from Gulf Coast
Express competes with
inbound flows from Katy, HSC
and Eagle Ford production
3 Gas-on-gas competition
depresses prices, pushes gas
from Permian and legacy
pipes to the North
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Supply Demand
Mexico will not save Waha
▪ Most analysts see exports from Agua Dulce
growing as Valley Crossing comes online
▪ More infrastructure needed to get US gas to
demand in central Mexico
― Entire country only has 10,000 miles of pipeline
capacity
― Demand will be largely seasonal due to lack
of storage
▪ Efforts to build renewables are pricing out gas
― Last renewables auction cleared at $20/MWh;
gas needs at least $45/MWh
▪ Mexican production begins to recover next
decade, as production from privatizations
comes online
Growth will continue, but not at levels meaningful to basis
Sources: RBN Energy LLC, SENER, WoodMackenzie
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-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Bc
f/d
US exports to Mexico
Waha - RBN Agua Dulce - RBN All other exports Total exports - Woodmac
HSC basis moving in anticipation of PermianBackwardated market shows impact of Permian gas coming via intrastates, Agua Dulce
Source: Bloomberg as of 3/15/2018
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-0.31
-0.28
-0.24
-0.20
-0.16
-0.12
-0.08
-0.04
-0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15
1/1
0/2
016
7/5
/201
6
12/2
8/2
016
6/2
3/2
017
12/1
6/2
017
6/1
0/2
018
12/4
/20
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5/2
9/2
019
11/2
2/2
019
5/1
6/2
020
11/8
/20
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$/m
mB
tu
Rolling forward curve of HOUS SHIP CHANNEL APR18
Actuals Curve as of: 28-Feb-2018 Curve as of: 29-Dec-2017
Curve as of: 30-Jun-2017 Curve as of: 30-Dec-2016 6M Moving Average as of 28-Feb-2018
-1.49
-1.36
-1.22
-1.09
-0.95
-0.82
-0.68
-0.54
-0.41
-0.27
-0.14
0.00
0.13
10-J
an-1
6
5-J
ul-16
28-D
ec-1
6
23-J
un-1
7
16-D
ec-1
7
10-J
un-1
8
4-D
ec-1
8
29-M
ay-1
9
22-N
ov-1
9
16-M
ay-2
0
8-N
ov-2
0
$/m
mB
tu
Rolling forward curve of WAHA BASIS SWAP APR18
Actuals Curve as of: 28-Feb-2018 Curve as of: 29-Dec-2017
Curve as of: 30-Jun-2017 Curve as of: 30-Dec-2016 Curve as of: 30-Jun-2016
Waha basis continues to declineTrying to catch a falling knife
Source: Bloomberg as of 3/21/18
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1 Waha basis falling, but
curve still (just) in contango
2 Waha basis continues to drop
as investment surprises to the
upside
3 GORs, Alpine High speculation
send Cal19 basis down sharply
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2
3
4 Strengthening WTI, NE supply
coming online lead to entire
curve shifting lower, with GCX
eventually relieving some
pressure
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When you can’t get out, you go negative
Example
▪ Q2 and Q3 2017 AECO (Alberta hub) intraday
prices went negative on several occasions,
meaning producers paid to move their gas out
of the basin
▪ Why?
― Pipelines refused to offer IT given FT volumes at
capacity
― Condensate prices made it economic to keep
drilling
▪ End result: producers paid providers/holders of
transport as much as $2.00/mmBtu, according to
reported price data
There’s a reason Mark Papa isn’t sleeping
Sources: Platts via Marketview, Financial Post, Peyto Energy
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-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
$/m
mB
tu
AECO reported low price
PGAP goes directly to demandDirect access vs rate stacking
Aqua Dulce,
TX
Katy,
TX
Lake Charles,
LA
DFW,
TX
Carthage,
TX
Perryville,
LA
Station 85
Kosi
Permian
Basin
N e w M e x i c o
Key
Exiting
infrastructure
Potential
infrastructure
Permian Global
Access Pipeline M e x i c o
G u l f o f
M e x i c o
L o u i s i a n a
A r k a n s a s
M i s s i s s i p p i A l a b a m a
T e n n e s s e e
O k l a h o m a
T e x a s
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Southwest Louisiana The Big Short
SW Louisiana: core of US gas demand2025
Notes: LNG demand includes ambient capacity; Sources: company data, drilling info, Entergy, Tellurian estimates
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5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Bcf/d
SWLA supply & demand
Prospective demandOutbound to TXDemandSupply - new projectsSupply - existing capacity
+8.0 Bcf/d
L o u i s i a n a
T e x a s
G u l f o f M e x i c o
Driftwood LNG
Lake Charles, LA
Southwest LA: 20
Bcf/d of potential
demand
Perryville
Eunice/Station 85
Haynesville
West Inbound to SWLA
10.8 Bcf/d
Infrastructure not built for new demandYou can get to Carthage or Perryville, but where’s the demand?
Sources: EIA 2018 Annual Energy Outlook, RBN Energy; note Haynesville includes Texas production
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Carthage
Perryville
Transco St85
FGT Z3
HSC
HHAD
411
Marcellus-Utica
24.6
33.0
2017 202574
Permian
7.3
13.0
2017 2025
Anadarko
5.6 6.1
2017 2025
23
52
Eagle Ford
5.810.2
2017 2025
112
7.3 7.9
2017 2025Haynesville
50.6
70.219.6
2017 2025 Incremental
production
Total selected basin shale
production,
Bcf/d
Resource
size, Tcf
Marcellus pipelines:
7.7 Bcf/d
Midship:
1.3 Bcf/d
KMI/DCP:
2.0 Bcf/d
SummaryBloomberg, EIA, RBN see a wall of gas that needs to find a market
▪ US dry gas production to hit 100 Bcf/d in next ten years
― Marcellus/Utica, Permian and Eagle Ford to provide growth of 18 Bcf/d
― Highly sensitive to increases in oil price
▪ Market needs at least 14-18 Bcf/d of LNG exports to balance; currently only 10 Bcf/d operating or under construction
▪ SW Louisiana is the center of US natural gas demand growth for the next decade
― Driven by LNG, favorable permitting/sites, and petrochemical growth
▪ $170 bn of infrastructure needed to bring new production to demand
▪ Even with recently built infrastructure, you still have a last mile problem: you can get close, but cannot get to market
▪ Rock and a hard place:
― Northeast, Permian production growth crowding out other production
― Basis eroding almost everywhere until infrastructure can get in place
― Getting to demand first will be key to maximizing revenue
Sources: EIA AEO 2018, Reference Case; RBN Energy, LLC; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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PGAPMaps & Terms
PGAP route and zones
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PGAP receipts
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PGAP deliveries
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▪ Negotiated rates for higher firm transportation service
▪ Shipper classes
― Anchor: 100,000 – 499,999 mmBtu/d
― Foundation: 500,000+ mmBtu/d
▪ Term:
― Minimum: 5 years
― Maximum: 20 years
Terms
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Thank you