PERIODIZATION OF HISTORY: A THEORETIC-MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
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Transcript of PERIODIZATION OF HISTORY: A THEORETIC-MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
Leonid Grinin http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/
PERIODIZATION OF HISTORY:
A THEORETIC-MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
Presentation at XXI World Congress of Philosophy. Rethinking Philosophy Today. July 30 –
August 5, 2008. Seoul National
University, Seoul, Korea.
There is
no
doubt
that
periodization is
a rather effective
method
of
data
ordering
and
analysis, but
it
deals
with
exceptionally
complex
types
of
processual and
temporal
phenomena
and
thus
it
simplifies
historical
reality. But
as
Karl
Jaspers
noted, "…
the purpose
of
such
simplifications
is
to
indicate
the
essentials".
I’d
like
to
suggest
a model
of
periodization of
history
based
on
my
theory
of
historical
process. I shall
also
demonstrate
the possibilities
of
mathematical
modeling
of
temporal
processes
in
historical
development.
According
to
the
theory
that
I propose, the historical
process
can
be
subdivided
more
effectively
into
four
major
stages. The
transition
from
any
of
these stages
into
another
is
the
change
of
all
the
basic
characteristics
of
the
respective
stage. However, in addition
to
this
principle
basis
of
periodization, we
need
an
additional
basis, by
means
of
which
the
chronology may be worked out in deta
il.
As
such
an
additional
basis
I propose
the production
principle
that
describes
the
major
qualitative
stages
of
the
development
of
the
world
productive forces.
I single
out
four
principles
of
production:
1. Hunter-Gatherer2. Craft-Agrarian3. Industrial4. Information-Scientific
The
change
in
production
principles
is connected
with
the
three
PRODUCTION
REVOLUTIONS. The
three
production revolutions
are
the
following:
•
the Agrarian (or
Neolithic
)
Revolution;
•
the Industrial Revolution;
•
the Information-Scientific Revolution.So
the
starting
point
of
such
revolutions
can
be
regarded
as
a convenient
and
natural
point
from
which
the chronology
of
stage
change
can
be
established.
There has
been
written
a lot
about
each
of
the
three production
revolutions. However
there
is
a small
number
of
studies
concerning
these
revolutions
as
recurrent
phenomena, each
of
them
representing
an
extremely
important
landmark
in
the
history
of
humankind. So
I try
to
develop
a theory
of production
revolution
that
I now
present
to
your
attention.
According
to
this
theory
each
production
revolution
has
its
own cycle. We
can
speak
about
two
qualitative
phases
and
a sort
of
interruption
between
them. Each
phase of
a production revolution
represents
a major
breakthrough
in
production.
A general scheme of two phases of production revolution within my theory looks as follows:
Agrarian Revolution:
•
the first phase is the transition to primitive hoe agriculture and animal husbandry;
•
the second phase is the transition to irrigation or non-irrigation plough agriculture.
Industrial Revolution:
•
the
first phase is
the
vigorous
development of seafaring and trade, mechanization on the basis of water engine and
other
processes
in
the
15th
and
16th
centuries;
•
the
second phase is
the
industrial breakthrough of the
18th
century
and
the
first
third
of
the
19th
century
which
is
connected
with
the
introduction
of
various machines
and
steam
energy.
Information-Scientific Revolution:
•
the
first phase began
in
the
1940s and
1950s with breakthroughs in automation, production of synthetic materials,
but
especially
in
the
development
of
electronic means of control, communication and information.
•
However, it
appears
possible
to
speak
about
its
forthcoming second phase which
may
start
within
a few
decades. Judging
by
the
recent
scientific, biotechnological
and
medical
inventions, the
second
phase of
this
revolution
may
start
with
changing
human
biological
nature.
The
overall
cycle
of
the
production
principle
can
be represent
in
a cycle
concluding
6 phases.
•
The
first
phase –
"transitional". •
The
second
phase –
"adolescence".
•
The
third
phase –
"florescence". •
The
fourth
phase –
"maturity".
•
The
fifth
phase –
"high
maturity". •
The
sixth
phase –
"preparatory".
After
this
in
some
societies
a transition
to
a new production
principle
can
take
place, and
a new
cycle
begins.
I believe
that
the
production
revolution
is connected
with
the
first
three
phases
of
the
production
principle. So
the
production
revolution can
be
regarded
as
an
integral
part
(the
first
"half") of
the
production
principle. In
this
Figure
you
can
see the
correlation
between
the
phases
of
production
principles
and
phases
of
production
revolutions.
I suppose
that
it
would
be
better
speak
about
the historical
process
not
since
the
modern
datings
of
the
emergence
of
Homo sapiens sapiens (100,000 –
200,000 years
ago) but
only
from
the
period
about
40,000 −
50,000
years
ago. That
is
because
I believe
that
only
after
the landmark
of
40,000 years
ago
we
can
speak
about
the
first
indisputable
indications
of
truly
human
culture
and
society.
Unfortunately
I can’t
give
details
of
every
phase of
my chronology
because
it
will
take
too
much
time. I would
like
to
dwell
only
on
some
datings. But
you
can
see
the
datings
of each
phase of
all
principles
of
production
in
this
Table
Table 1. Chronology of Production Principle PhasesProduc-tion principle
1st phase 2nd phase 3rd phase 4th phase 5th phase 6th phase Overall for pro-duction princi-ple
1. Hunter-
Gatherer
40 000–30 000
(38 000–28 000BCE)
10
30000–22 000
(28 000–20 000BCE)
8
22 000 –17 000
(20
000–15 000BCE)
5
17000 –14 000
(15
000–12
000BCE)
3
14 000–11 500
(12 000–9500BCE)
2.5
11 500–10 000(9500–8000BCE)
1.5
40 000–10 000
(38 000–8000 BCE)
30
2. Craft-
Agrarian
10 000–7300
(8000–5300BCE)
2.7
7300–5000
(5300–3000BCE)
2.3
5000–3500
(3000–1500BCE)
1.5
3500–2200
(1500–200
BCE)1.3
2200–1200(200
BCE –800 CE)
1.0
800–1430 CE
0.6
10 000–570(8000
BCE–1430 CE)9.4
3. In-dustrial 1430–16000.17
1600–17300.13
1730–18300.1
1830–18900.06
1890–19290.04
1929–19550.025
1430–19550.525
4. Infor-mation-
Scientific
1955–2000
(1955–1995)
0.04–0.045
2000–2040
(1995–2030)
0.035–0.04
2040–2070
(2030–2055)0.025–
0.03
2070–2090
(2055–2070)0.015–
0.02
2090–2105
(2070–
2080)0.01– 0.015
2105–2115
(2080–2090)0.01
1955–2115(2090)
[forecast]0.135– 0.160
•
In
this
table
you
can
see
close-up
the
dating
of
each
phase of Hunter-Gatherer
principle
of
production.
Production principle
1st phase 2nd phase 3rd phase 4th phase 5th phase 6th phase Overall for pro-duction
principle Hunter-Gatherer
40 000– 30 000
(38 000– 28 000 BCE)
10
30000– 22 000
(28 000– 20 000 BCE)
8
22 000 –17 000
(20 000–15 000 BCE)
5
17000 – 14 000
(15 000–12 000 BCE)
3
14 000– 11 500
(12 000– 9500 BCE)
2.5
11 500– 10 000 (9500– 8000 BCE)
1.5
40 000– 10 000
(38 000– 8000 BCE)
30
Table 1 (1). Chronology of Hunter-GathererProduction Principle Phases
•
During in
the first phase of Hunter-Gatherer production principle (c.40-30,000 BP) some new types
of
tools
appeared. For that period more
than
100 types
of
tools
are known.
•
The
third phase lasted
till
18,000 –
16,000 BP. This
is
the period
of
the
maximum
spread
of
glaciers
(referred
to
as
the
glacial
maximum).
•
The
sixth phase (c. 12,000–10,000 BP) was
also
connected with
continuing
climatic
warming, environmental
changes
culminating
in
the
transition
to
the
Holocene
and considerable
progress
in
stone
industries
during
the
Neolithic
period.
Table 1(2). Chronology of Production Principle Phases
Production principle
1st phase
2nd phase
3rd phase
4th phase
5th phase
6th phase
Overall for production
principle
Craft-Agrarian
10 000–7300
(8000– 5300 BCE)
2.7
7300– 5000
(5300– 3000 BCE) 2.3
5000– 3500
(3000–1500 BCE)
1.5
3500– 2200
(1500– 200
BCE) 1.3
2200– 1200 (200
BCE – 800 CE) 1.0
800– 1430 CE
0.6
10 000–570 (8000 BCE–1430
CE) 9.4
In
this
table
you
can
see
the
datings
of
each
phase of Craft-Agrarian
principle
of
production.
•
The
first phase of Craft-Agrarian productioin
principle was connected
with
the
beginning
of
agriculture
which
is
dated
within
the
interval
12,000 to
9,000 BP.
•
During
the
third phase, 5000–3500 BP the
second
stage
of Agrarian
revolution
starts; animal
husbandry, crafts
and
trade
are
differentiated
into
separate
branches
of
the
economy.
•
The
sixth phase lasted
from
the
9th
century
till
the
first
third
of
the
15th
century
CE. At
its
end
one
can
observe
the
beginning
of
urban
and
economic
growth
in
Europe.
Table 1 (3). Chronology of Production Principle Phases
You
can
see
the
datings
of
each
phase of Industrial principle of
production
in
this
table.
Production principle
1st phase 2nd phase 3rd phase 4th phase 5th phase 6th phase Overall for pro-duction
principle
Industrial 1430– 1600 0.17
1600– 1730 0.13
1730– 1830 0.1
1830– 1890 0.06
1890– 1929 0.04
1929– 1955 0.025
1430–1955 0.525
•
The first phase of Industrial production principle was connected with the beginning of the industrial revolution of the 15th
century to the late 16th
century.
•
The
third phase of the industrial production principle began in the second third of the 18th
century in England. It
was connected with
the
second
phase of
the
industrial revolution
that
led
to
the
development
of
the
machine-
based
industries
and
the
transition
to
steam
energy.
•
The sixth phase continued till the mid 20th
century.
A vigorous
intensification
of
production
and
the introduction
of
scientific
methods
of
its
organization
took
place
during
this
period.
•
The
first phase of
the
information-scientific
production principle
took
place
between
the
1950s and
mid
1990s,
when
because
of
information-scientific
revolution
a vigorous
development
of
information
technologies
and
the
start
of
real
economic
globalization
were
observed.
•
The
second phase started
in
the
mid
1990s in
conjunction with
the
development
and
wide
diffusion
of
user-friendly
computers, communication
technologies
and
so
on. It continues
up
to
the
present.
•
The
information-scientific
production
principle
is
only
at
its beginning; its
first
phase has
just
been
finished
and
the
second
one
has
just
started. However, its
main
results
are
still
forthcoming.
• The
third phase may
begin
approximately
in
the
2030s –
2040s•For
the
expected
lengths
of
the
fourth, fifth, and
sixth phases
of
the
information-scientific
production
principle
see
the
Tables
. Of course, all
the
calculations
of
the
following
phases' lengths
are
highly
hypothetical.
Table 1 (4). Chronology of Production Principle Phases
Production principle
1st phase 2nd phase 3rd phase 4th phase 5th phase
6th phase Overall for production principle
Information-Scientific
1955– 2000
(1955– 1995)
0.04–0.045
2000– 2040
(1995– 2030)
0.035–0.04
2040– 2070
(2030– 2055)
0.025– 0.03
2070– 2090
(2055– 2070)
0.015– 0.02
2090– 2105
(2070–2080)
0.01–0.015
2105– 2115
(2080– 2090)
0.01
1955–2115 (2090)
[forecast]
0.135–0.160
Table 2. Production Principles and Their Phase Lengths (in thousands of years)
Production principle
1st
phase2nd
phase3rd
phase4th
phase5th
phase6th
phaseOverall for production principle
Information- Scientific 0.04–
0.045
0.035 –
0.04
0.025 –
0.03
0.015 –
0.02
0.01–0.015 0.01 0.135–
0.160
In
general, Information-Scientific production principle may
finish
by
the
end
of
this
century, or
by
the
beginning
of
the
next
one. This
implies
an
immense acceleration
of
development
that
can
be
hardly
compatible
with
the
biopsychic
human
nature
because
in
view
of
the growing
life
expectations
all
the
immense
changes
(from
2040s to
2090s) will
happen
within
the
span
of
one generation
that
will
appear
in
the
2010s. But
if
they
occur
within
a lifespan
of
one
generation, it
is
not
clear
whether human
physical
and
psychic
abilities
will
be
sufficient
to
stand
this; what
price
will
be
paid
for
such
a fast adaptation?
Now
let’s
pass
to
the
mathematical
part. The proposed
periodization is
based
on
the
idea
of
change
of
the
production
principles
as
recurrent
developmental cycles
(each
of
them
includes
six
phases). You
can
see
the
four
macrocycles
in
the
Diagrams. You’ll
see
curves
of each
of
them
have
similar
exponential
shape.
Diagram 1. Hunter-Gatherer Production Principle
40000 (38000 BCE.)
10000(8000 BCE)
11500
14000
17000
22000 (20000 BCE)
30000
600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000260002800030000320003400036000380004000042000
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Phase IV
Phase V
Phase VI
(8000) (4000)years BP(BCE.) (38000) (28000) (20000) (14000) (12000)
Diagram 2. Craft-Agrarian Production Principle
1430 CE
800 CE
200 BCE
1500 BCE (3500 BP)
5300 BCE
8000 BCE (10000 BP)
3000 BCE
Phase VI
Phase V
Phase IV
Phase III
Phase II
Phase I
CEBCE9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000
Diagram 3. Industrial Production Principle
1955
1929
1890
1830
1730
1600
1430 CE
1400 1430 1460 1490 1520 1550 1580 1610 1640 1670 1700 1730 1760 1790 1820 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Phase VI
Phase V
Phase IV
Phase III
Phase II
Phase I
н. э.
Diagram 4. Information-Scientific Production Principle
19551955
2040
2070
2090
2105
2115
2000
2030
2055
2070
2080
2090
1995
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Phase IV
Phase V
Phase VI
Note: the broken line indictates the forecast version for the expected development of tproduction principle corresponding to dates in brackets in the 5th line of Table 1.
However, each
subsequent
cycle
is
shorter
in
time than
the
previous
one
due
to
the
acceleration
of
historical
development. This
is
obviously
seen
especially
in
the
Table that
presents
the
absolute
lengths
of
the
phases
in
thousands
of
years.
Table 2. Production Principles and Their Phase Lengths
(in thousands of years)
Production principle
1st
phase2nd
phase3rd
phase4th
phase5th
phase6th
phaseOverall for production principle
1. Hunter-Gatherer 10 8 5 3 2.5 1.5 30
2. Craft-Agrarian 2.7 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 9.4
3. Industrial 0.17 0.13 0.1 0.06 0.04 0.025 0.525
4. Information-
Sci-entific 0.04–
0.0450.035–0.04
0.025–0.03
0.015
–0.02
0.01–0.015 0.01 0.135–
0.160
No
doubt
these
are
recurrent
cycles, because within
each
cycle
in
some
respect
the
development
follows
the
same
pattern: every
phase within
every cycle
plays
a functionally
similar
role. Moreover, the
proportions
of
the
lengths
of
the
phases
and
their combinations
remain
approximately
the
same. You
can
see
this
in
the
following
Tables
which
also present
the
average
rates
for
all
the
production
principles.
Table 3. Ratio of Each Phase [and Phase Combination] Length to the Total Length of Respective Production
Principle [%%] (presents
results
of
my
calculations
of
the
ratio
of
each
phase's
length
to
the
length
of
the
respective
production
principle
using
a rather
simple
methodology).
Production principle 1 2 3 4 5 6 1–2 3–4 5–6 1–3 4–6
1. Hunter-
Gatherer 33.3 26.7 16. 7 10 8.3 5 60 26.7 13.3 76.7 23.3
2. Craft-
Agrarian 28.7 24. 5 16.0 13.8 10.6 6.4 53.2 29.8 17 69.1 30.9
3. Industrial 32.4 24.8 19 11.4 7.6 4.8 57.1 30.5 12.4 76.2 23.8
4. Information-
Scientific 28.1 (29.6)
25 (25.9)
18.8(18.5)
12.5(11.1)
9.4 (7.4)
6.3(7.4)
53.1(55.6)
31.3(29.6)
15.6(14.8)
71.9(74.1)
28.1(25.9)
Mean 30.6 25.3 17.6 11.9 9 5.6 55.9 29.6 14.6 73.5 26.5
Table 4. Comparison of Phase Length Ratios for Each Production Principle [%%]
employs
a similar
methodology
to
compare
lengths
of
phases (and
combinations
of
phases) within
one
production
principle.
Production principle
1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 (1+2):(3+4)
(3+4):(5+6)
(1+2+3) :
(4+5+6)
1. Hunter-
Gatherer 125 160 166.7 120 166.7 225 200 328.6
2. Craft-
Agrarian 117.4 153.3 115.4 130 166.7 178.6 175 224.1
3. Industrial 130.8 130 166.7 150 160 187.5 246.2 320
4. Information-
Scientific 112.5(114.3)
133.3(140)
150(166.7)
133.3(150)
150(100)
170(187.5)
200 (200)
255.5(285.7)
Mean 121.4 144.2 149.7 133.3 160.9 190.3 205.3 282.1
In
general, my
mathematical
analysis
represented
in diagrams
and
tables
indicates
the
following
points:
•
evolution
of
each
production
principle
in
time
has
recurrent features, as
it
is
seen
in
the
Diagrams
•
there
are
stable
mathematical
proportions
between
lengths of
phases
and
phase combinations
within
each
production
principle
as
it
was
seen
in
the
Tables
•
the
cycle
analysis
clearly
indicates
that
the
development speed
increases
sharply
just
as
a result
of
production
revolutions
as
it
is
seen
in
following
Diagram
Diagram 5. Evolution of Historical Process in Time
3000
21152105209020702040200520001955192918901830
16001730
1430800
2001500
5300
8000
120001050015000
2000028000 38000 BCE
(40000 BP)
Formation I(hunter-gatherer production principle)
Formation II(craft-agrarian production principle)
Formation IV(information-scientific production principle)
Formation III(industrial production principle)
BCE 0 CE
If
we
calibrate
the
Y-axis
of
the
last
diagram, the
curve of
historical
process
acquires
a hyperbolic
rather
than
exponential
shape, which
indicates
that
we
are
dealing
here with
a blow-up
regime. You
can
see
it
in
the
final
diagram.
Diagram 6. Hyperbolic Model of Historical Process Dynamics
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
-50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0
CEBCE
38 000 BCE
8 000 BCE
1430 CE
1955 CE
2000 CE