Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble …...Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble...

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Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble during 2005 Atlantic Season Mrinal K. Biswas*, Brian P. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti Florida State University Tallahassee, FL

Transcript of Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble …...Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble...

  • Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble during 2005 Atlantic Season

    Mrinal K. Biswas*, Brian P. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti Florida State University

    Tallahassee, FL

  • Outline Formulation of the Superensemble Overview of Operations Models used in Superensemble Key storms of 2005 Training Issues Conclusions

  • This technique demonstrates a way to post-process a set of multi-model forecasts to produce a new "optimal" forecast.

    • It operates by applying unequal weights to each model for each forecast lead time. It differs from the simple ensemble mean, which assigns a weight of 1/N to each of the N multi-models.

    • In the end, the Superensemble tends to reduce the individual model biases while giving more weight to the more accurate member forecasts.

    • For this purpose, the Superensemble requires a training period made of up previous forecast cases in order to produce the regression coefficients (weights) for each model.

    FSU Superensemble Description

  • TRAINING PHASE FORECAST PHASE

    t = 0

    Observed Analysis

    Superensemble

    TIME

    MultimodelForecasts

    MultimodelForecasts

    t = 0

    STATISTICS

    Superensemble Methodology

  • Formulation of the Superensemble The superensemble forecast is constructed as,

    are the ith model forecasts increments. are the mean of the ith model forecasts increments over the training period. is the observed increments mean of the training period. are the regression coefficient obtained by a minimization procedure during the training period. is the number of forecast models involved.

    F iF i

    O

    ai

    where,

    N

    Si 1

    N

    ai F i F i O

  • Formulation of Superensemble….Contd

    In addition to removing the bias, the Superensemble scales the individual model forecasts contributions according to their relative performance in the training period in a way that, mathematically, is equivalent to weighting them.

    Bias removed ensemble mean utilizes equal weights (= 1/N, N being the total number of models). Thus poorer models are assumed to be equal in strength to the best models after bias removal.

    Multimodel bias removed ensemble is defined as, Ei 1

    N 1N

    F i F i O

  • Overview of operations

    During 2005 approximately 400 Superensemble forecasts were disseminated to the National Hurricane Center 6 times a day (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC)

    This year the forecasts were sent in a timely fashion to NHC

    Superensemble forecasts are run as long as a system maintains minimum tropical storm intensity till its landfall/ becomes extratropical

  • Models used in the construction of the track FSU Superensemble

    OFCI – Previous cycle OFCL (Official NHC forecast) interpolated

    GFDI – Previous cycle GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model) interpolated

    GFSI – Previous cycle GFS interpolated

    UKMI – Previous cycle UKM (United Kingdom Met Office model) interpolated

    NGPI – Previous cycle NGPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) interpolated

    GUNA – Mean consensus of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, and GFSI

  • Models used in the construction of the intensity FSU Superensemble

    OFCI – Previous cycle OFCL (Official NHC forecast) interpolated

    GFSI – Previous cycle GFS interpolated

    UKMI – Previous cycle UKM (United Kingdom Met Service model) interpolated

    SHF5 – SHIFOR5 (Climatology and Persistence model)

    DSHP – SHIPS with inland decay algorithm

  • Performance of FSSE

    Dennis (4–13 July 2005) Emily (10-21 July 2005) Katrina (23-30 August 2005) Rita (17-26 September 2005) Wilma (15-25 October 2005)

  • Hurricane Dennis 4th storm of the season (July)

    Landfall on Santa Rosa Island, FL

    $2.23 bn damage

  • Realtime forecasts of Hurricane Dennis

    Superensemble was able to predict landfall quite accurately almost 84 hr in advance

  • Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (m

    ph)

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    12 24 36 48 60 72Forecast Hours

    Err

    ors

    (km

    )

    OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAFSSE

    Track and Intensity forecast verification during Dennis

    Track forecasts comparable up to 60 hour of forecast

    Intensity errors are small through 72 hour of forecast

    Chart1

    19.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86

    23.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03

    19.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82

    26.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35

    27.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31

    27.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89

    19.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74

    26.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04

    4662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78

    43.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    Chart2

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    19.49

    24.61

    16.96

    26.93

    23.8

    19.38

    16.93

    21.38

    17.86

    23.7

    32.97

    24.79

    37.75

    33.03

    20.7

    27.87

    28.98

    20.03

    19.55

    32.49

    18.04

    36.03

    28.89

    20.77

    29.36

    25.22

    16.82

    26.29

    41.4

    21.03

    45.56

    34.42

    26.29

    37.51

    32.84

    28.35

    27.7

    45.81

    29.04

    52.69

    38.62

    26.35

    36.45

    37.72

    32.31

    27.14

    37.26

    32.89

    45.11

    36.57

    22.77

    25.16

    32.11

    22.89

    19.55

    42.55

    24.15

    50.89

    39.48

    19.04

    23.99

    31.62

    22.74

    26.94

    54.21

    28.59

    61.14

    45.34

    18.89

    40.48

    40.21

    31.04

    46

    62.1

    41.63

    60.66

    53.59

    33.58

    62.87

    50.22

    42.78

    43.7

    55.58

    45.23

    32.2

    35.27

    36.03

    73.6

    46.99

    48.26

    dennis_track

    Id

    12

    24

    36

    48

    60

    72

    84

    96

    108

    120

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    1219.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86

    2423.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03

    3619.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82

    4826.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35

    6027.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31

    7227.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89

    8419.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74

    9626.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04

    1084662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78

    12043.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26

    Chart1

    19.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86

    23.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03

    19.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82

    26.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35

    27.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31

    27.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89

    19.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74

    26.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04

    4662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78

    43.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    Chart2

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    19.49

    24.61

    16.96

    26.93

    23.8

    19.38

    16.93

    21.38

    17.86

    23.7

    32.97

    24.79

    37.75

    33.03

    20.7

    27.87

    28.98

    20.03

    19.55

    32.49

    18.04

    36.03

    28.89

    20.77

    29.36

    25.22

    16.82

    26.29

    41.4

    21.03

    45.56

    34.42

    26.29

    37.51

    32.84

    28.35

    27.7

    45.81

    29.04

    52.69

    38.62

    26.35

    36.45

    37.72

    32.31

    27.14

    37.26

    32.89

    45.11

    36.57

    22.77

    25.16

    32.11

    22.89

    19.55

    42.55

    24.15

    50.89

    39.48

    19.04

    23.99

    31.62

    22.74

    26.94

    54.21

    28.59

    61.14

    45.34

    18.89

    40.48

    40.21

    31.04

    46

    62.1

    41.63

    60.66

    53.59

    33.58

    62.87

    50.22

    42.78

    43.7

    55.58

    45.23

    32.2

    35.27

    36.03

    73.6

    46.99

    48.26

    Chart3

    12121212121212

    24242424242424

    36363636363636

    48484848484848

    60606060606060

    72727272727272

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    49.41

    58.63

    63.39

    41.71

    46.35

    42.91

    44.11

    77.49

    90.95

    117.56

    76.43

    81.63

    77.37

    79.5

    102.63

    109.61

    138.64

    101.43

    120.98

    94.85

    96.65

    105.51

    119.84

    151.88

    118.95

    167.32

    112.63

    121.24

    115.76

    133.25

    172.94

    113.66

    186.62

    113.09

    134.93

    101.51

    151.82

    161.32

    91.84

    178.96

    82.71

    136.64

    dennis_track

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    1219.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86

    2423.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03

    3619.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82

    4826.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35

    6027.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31

    7227.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89

    8419.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74

    9626.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04

    1084662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78

    12043.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26

    OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAFSSE

    1249.4158.6363.3941.7146.3542.9144.11

    2477.4990.95117.5676.4381.6377.3779.5

    36102.63109.61138.64101.43120.9894.8596.65

    48105.51119.84151.88118.95167.32112.63121.24

    60115.76133.25172.94113.66186.62113.09134.93

    72101.51151.82161.3291.84178.9682.71136.64

  • Hurricane Emily

    Earliest forming cat 5 hurricane

    Landfall near San Fernando, Mexico

  • Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (k

    m)

    OFCIAVNIGUNAGFDINGPIUKMIFSSE

    Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Forecast Hours

    Err

    ors

    (mph

    )

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    Chart1

    12121212121212

    24242424242424

    36363636363636

    48484848484848

    60606060606060

    72727272727272

    84848484848484

    96969696969696

    108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GUNA

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    45.1

    64.48

    49.86

    62.05

    48.56

    57.68

    50.16

    76.28

    87.51

    71.58

    99.72

    77.12

    97.07

    77.13

    103.87

    114.34

    103.08

    140.88

    107.14

    141.16

    109.2

    123.46

    144.98

    131.56

    184.71

    119.53

    180.04

    141.54

    131.35

    185.64

    165.35

    230.12

    148.64

    214.24

    181.33

    122.83

    198.1

    173.5

    256.8

    156.3

    249.94

    200.22

    137.81

    211.08

    175.84

    266.42

    186.75

    286.22

    209.31

    152.49

    216.73

    173.13

    294.51

    227.07

    309.55

    228.41

    182.31

    220.78

    142.1

    286

    262.19

    304.81

    225.27

    222.13

    250.56

    140.54

    222.06

    317.98

    308.94

    213.11

    emily_track

    OFCIAVNIGUNAGFDINGPIUKMIFSSE

    1245.164.4849.8662.0548.5657.6850.16

    2476.2887.5171.5899.7277.1297.0777.13

    36103.87114.34103.08140.88107.14141.16109.2

    48123.46144.98131.56184.71119.53180.04141.54

    60131.35185.64165.35230.12148.64214.24181.33

    72122.83198.1173.5256.8156.3249.94200.22

    84137.81211.08175.84266.42186.75286.22209.31

    96152.49216.73173.13294.51227.07309.55228.41

    108182.31220.78142.1286262.19304.81225.27

    120222.13250.56140.54222.06317.98308.94213.11

    Chart1

    12121212121212

    24242424242424

    36363636363636

    48484848484848

    60606060606060

    72727272727272

    84848484848484

    96969696969696

    108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GUNA

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    45.1

    64.48

    49.86

    62.05

    48.56

    57.68

    50.16

    76.28

    87.51

    71.58

    99.72

    77.12

    97.07

    77.13

    103.87

    114.34

    103.08

    140.88

    107.14

    141.16

    109.2

    123.46

    144.98

    131.56

    184.71

    119.53

    180.04

    141.54

    131.35

    185.64

    165.35

    230.12

    148.64

    214.24

    181.33

    122.83

    198.1

    173.5

    256.8

    156.3

    249.94

    200.22

    137.81

    211.08

    175.84

    266.42

    186.75

    286.22

    209.31

    152.49

    216.73

    173.13

    294.51

    227.07

    309.55

    228.41

    182.31

    220.78

    142.1

    286

    262.19

    304.81

    225.27

    222.13

    250.56

    140.54

    222.06

    317.98

    308.94

    213.11

    Chart2

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    16

    20.39

    15.3

    20.87

    19.91

    13.57

    16.25

    15.78

    14.15

    21.85

    29.29

    18.51

    30.15

    29.79

    18.16

    28.79

    21.39

    21.62

    22.85

    34.27

    18.9

    36.65

    35.45

    21.13

    35.86

    23.8

    20.45

    25.3

    38.57

    19.34

    40.04

    34.46

    24.47

    34.8

    29.61

    18.95

    24.06

    41.8

    19.37

    45.29

    36.2

    24.49

    31.28

    33.06

    19.83

    22.8

    47.2

    14.6

    51.65

    41.7

    27.44

    30.31

    38.21

    21.11

    24.64

    52.02

    22.4

    54.1

    44.08

    26.8

    27.22

    44.3

    26.08

    27.48

    52.23

    31.17

    54.84

    43.28

    35.27

    28.84

    47.71

    30.11

    26.02

    43.84

    31.77

    45.35

    33.71

    35.57

    27.94

    36.98

    26.78

    21.36

    43.78

    23

    35.98

    24.4

    33.53

    32.78

    28.3

    20.64

    emily_track

    OFCIAVNIGUNAGFDINGPIUKMIFSSE

    1245.164.4849.8662.0548.5657.6850.16

    2476.2887.5171.5899.7277.1297.0777.13

    36103.87114.34103.08140.88107.14141.16109.2

    48123.46144.98131.56184.71119.53180.04141.54

    60131.35185.64165.35230.12148.64214.24181.33

    72122.83198.1173.5256.8156.3249.94200.22

    84137.81211.08175.84266.42186.75286.22209.31

    96152.49216.73173.13294.51227.07309.55228.41

    108182.31220.78142.1286262.19304.81225.27

    120222.13250.56140.54222.06317.98308.94213.11

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    121620.3915.320.8719.9113.5716.2515.7814.15

    2421.8529.2918.5130.1529.7918.1628.7921.3921.62

    3622.8534.2718.936.6535.4521.1335.8623.820.45

    4825.338.5719.3440.0434.4624.4734.829.6118.95

    6024.0641.819.3745.2936.224.4931.2833.0619.83

    7222.847.214.651.6541.727.4430.3138.2121.11

    8424.6452.0222.454.144.0826.827.2244.326.08

    9627.4852.2331.1754.8443.2835.2728.8447.7130.11

    10826.0243.8431.7745.3533.7135.5727.9436.9826.78

    12021.3643.782335.9824.433.5332.7828.320.64

  • Hurricane Katrina Costliest and one of the five deadliest hurricanes

    First landfall near the border of Miami-Dade county and Broward county

    Final landfall near Louisiana / Mississippi border

    Around 1400 fatalities

  • Hurricane Katrina

    23 Superensemble forecasts were made during Katrina

    Predicted landfall 60 hours in advance Did not predict the intensification when it was

    crossing Florida, GFDL did a nice job

  • Intensity forecasts covering landfall period

  • Hurricane Katrina Track verification 48 hour before landfall

  • Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    12 24 36 48 60 72

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (k

    m)

    OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAENSMFSSE

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    12 24 36 48 60 72

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (m

    ph)

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPENSMFSSE

    Number of Cases

    20 18 16 14 12 10

    Chart1

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    15.99

    17.65

    11.96

    23.83

    17.42

    18.46

    20.04

    17.13

    24.21

    27.41

    16.23

    36.08

    26.64

    26.64

    31.26

    21.96

    32.56

    35.58

    19.19

    42.55

    33.21

    33.71

    41.59

    28.84

    42.88

    44.85

    18.32

    51.94

    41.24

    46.66

    54.55

    40.2

    54.82

    60.28

    24.82

    55.89

    51.08

    60.47

    71.03

    58.34

    67.04

    71.42

    30.25

    69.43

    59.8

    71.87

    82.75

    62.57

    Chart2

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    Number of Cases

    20 18 16 14 12 10

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    15.99

    17.65

    11.96

    23.83

    17.42

    18.46

    20.04

    17.13

    24.21

    27.41

    16.23

    36.08

    26.64

    26.64

    31.26

    21.96

    32.56

    35.58

    19.19

    42.55

    33.21

    33.71

    41.59

    28.84

    42.88

    44.85

    18.32

    51.94

    41.24

    46.66

    54.55

    40.2

    54.82

    60.28

    24.82

    55.89

    51.08

    60.47

    71.03

    58.34

    67.04

    71.42

    30.25

    69.43

    59.8

    71.87

    82.75

    62.57

    Chart3

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    48.5

    49.3

    60.6

    47.53

    35.37

    37.78

    39.64

    39.7

    94.13

    97.93

    118.15

    84.27

    65.42

    71.72

    76.37

    77.55

    154.34

    148.04

    168.96

    131.33

    95.99

    115.39

    121.47

    122.68

    232.36

    203.38

    195.4

    182.24

    148.9

    160.49

    170.05

    174.19

    312.66

    293.18

    243.91

    214.03

    211.05

    228.29

    242.33

    232.02

    397.73

    408.59

    303.45

    255.53

    303.59

    304.4

    319.18

    289.25

    katrina_inten

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPENSMFSSE

    1215.9917.6511.9623.8317.4218.4620.0417.13

    2424.2127.4116.2336.0826.6426.6431.2621.96

    3632.5635.5819.1942.5533.2133.7141.5928.84

    4842.8844.8518.3251.9441.2446.6654.5540.2

    6054.8260.2824.8255.8951.0860.4771.0358.34

    7267.0471.4230.2569.4359.871.8782.7562.57

    OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAENSMFSSE

    1248.549.360.647.5335.3737.7839.6439.7

    2494.1397.93118.1584.2765.4271.7276.3777.55

    36154.34148.04168.96131.3395.99115.39121.47122.68

    48232.36203.38195.4182.24148.9160.49170.05174.19

    60312.66293.18243.91214.03211.05228.29242.33232.02

    72397.73408.59303.45255.53303.59304.4319.18289.25

    Chart1

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    15.99

    17.65

    11.96

    23.83

    17.42

    18.46

    20.04

    17.13

    24.21

    27.41

    16.23

    36.08

    26.64

    26.64

    31.26

    21.96

    32.56

    35.58

    19.19

    42.55

    33.21

    33.71

    41.59

    28.84

    42.88

    44.85

    18.32

    51.94

    41.24

    46.66

    54.55

    40.2

    54.82

    60.28

    24.82

    55.89

    51.08

    60.47

    71.03

    58.34

    67.04

    71.42

    30.25

    69.43

    59.8

    71.87

    82.75

    62.57

    Chart2

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    Number of Cases

    20 18 16 14 12 10

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    15.99

    17.65

    11.96

    23.83

    17.42

    18.46

    20.04

    17.13

    24.21

    27.41

    16.23

    36.08

    26.64

    26.64

    31.26

    21.96

    32.56

    35.58

    19.19

    42.55

    33.21

    33.71

    41.59

    28.84

    42.88

    44.85

    18.32

    51.94

    41.24

    46.66

    54.55

    40.2

    54.82

    60.28

    24.82

    55.89

    51.08

    60.47

    71.03

    58.34

    67.04

    71.42

    30.25

    69.43

    59.8

    71.87

    82.75

    62.57

    Chart3

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    48.5

    49.3

    60.6

    47.53

    35.37

    37.78

    39.64

    39.7

    94.13

    97.93

    118.15

    84.27

    65.42

    71.72

    76.37

    77.55

    154.34

    148.04

    168.96

    131.33

    95.99

    115.39

    121.47

    122.68

    232.36

    203.38

    195.4

    182.24

    148.9

    160.49

    170.05

    174.19

    312.66

    293.18

    243.91

    214.03

    211.05

    228.29

    242.33

    232.02

    397.73

    408.59

    303.45

    255.53

    303.59

    304.4

    319.18

    289.25

    katrina_inten

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPENSMFSSE

    1215.9917.6511.9623.8317.4218.4620.0417.13

    2424.2127.4116.2336.0826.6426.6431.2621.96

    3632.5635.5819.1942.5533.2133.7141.5928.84

    4842.8844.8518.3251.9441.2446.6654.5540.2

    6054.8260.2824.8255.8951.0860.4771.0358.34

    7267.0471.4230.2569.4359.871.8782.7562.57

    OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAENSMFSSE

    1248.549.360.647.5335.3737.7839.6439.7

    2494.1397.93118.1584.2765.4271.7276.3777.55

    36154.34148.04168.96131.3395.99115.39121.47122.68

    48232.36203.38195.4182.24148.9160.49170.05174.19

    60312.66293.18243.91214.03211.05228.29242.33232.02

    72397.73408.59303.45255.53303.59304.4319.18289.25

  • Hurricane Rita

    Third Cat 5 hurricane of 2005 season

  • Economic impacts of Hurricane Rita

  • Hurricane Rita

    FSU Superensemble gave the best guidance for intensity during hurricane Rita at most forecast times

    120 hour intensity error was around 10 mph

  • Obs 00 57.5 12 69 24 69 36 97.75 48 120.75 60 166.75 72 172.5 84 143.75 96 138 108 126.50 120 120.75

    FSSE 57.5 72.26 91.07 108.26 122 126 129 130 130 130 120.98

    Obs 00 109.25 12 138 24 172.5 36 166.75 48 138.00 60 132.25 72 120.75

    FSSE 103.5 122.32 132.06 136.07 139.86 144.75 133.98

  • Hurricane Rita Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    r (m

    ph)

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    Chart1

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Error (mph)

    Hurricane Rita Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    14.95

    21.96

    14.13

    21.08

    16.48

    14.89

    18.11

    17.55

    15

    21.43

    37.28

    21.67

    35.77

    27.9

    21.91

    25.11

    28.32

    22.62

    24.89

    49.25

    25.44

    48.23

    33.21

    23.36

    30.69

    35.43

    22.7

    28.37

    57.65

    31.51

    57.81

    39.94

    25.38

    35.27

    42.09

    22.78

    34.41

    60.68

    36.45

    62.01

    47.33

    28.56

    40.69

    46.68

    29.51

    38.26

    64.61

    44.22

    65.86

    55.3

    30.59

    39.31

    49.85

    29.61

    36.03

    63.63

    43.44

    66.83

    59.16

    28.03

    34.24

    49.97

    23.28

    26.61

    58.65

    42.55

    64.4

    56.35

    21.08

    33.19

    46.32

    16.38

    19.32

    58.19

    38.87

    69

    51.06

    22.14

    44.85

    47.92

    12.71

    11.88

    58.27

    31.05

    75.52

    48.68

    20.32

    65.55

    49.9

    10.33

    print

    FSSEENSM

    121517.55

    2422.6228.32

    3622.735.43

    4822.7842.09

    6029.5146.68

    7229.6149.85

    8423.2849.97

    9616.3846.32

    10812.7147.92

    12010.3349.9

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    1214.9521.9614.1321.0816.4814.8918.1117.5515

    2421.4337.2821.6735.7727.921.9125.1128.3222.62

    3624.8949.2525.4448.2333.2123.3630.6935.4322.7

    4828.3757.6531.5157.8139.9425.3835.2742.0922.78

    6034.4160.6836.4562.0147.3328.5640.6946.6829.51

    7238.2664.6144.2265.8655.330.5939.3149.8529.61

    8436.0363.6343.4466.8359.1628.0334.2449.9723.28

    9626.6158.6542.5564.456.3521.0833.1946.3216.38

    10819.3258.1938.876951.0622.1444.8547.9212.71

    12011.8858.2731.0575.5248.6820.3265.5549.910.33

  • Uncertainties in track forecasts during Rita

    During Katrina the models shifted to the left while in Rita it did the opposite

  • Hurricane Wilma

    All time lowest central pressure 882 mb

    60 kt tropical storm to a 150 kt Cat 5 hurricane in 24 hours

  • Obs (mph) 00 74.75 12 149.5 24 172.5 36 155.25 48 143.75 60 149.5 72 143.75 84 138 96 115 108 97.75 120 97.75

    Obs (mph) 00 80.5 12 172.5 24 161 36 149.5 48 149.5 60 138 72 126.5 84 97.75 96 97.75 108 103.5 120 120.75

    FSSE 74.75 90.47 106.53 121.06 130.41 132.76 136.40 137.99 120.40 105.61 90.39

    FSSE 80.5 97.82 116.59 129.56 137.19 140.86 142.20 139.75 131.92 90.66 80.04

  • Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for Wilma

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (m

    ph)

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIFSSE

    Chart1

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    8484848484848484

    9696969696969696

    OFCI

    AVNI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (mph)

    Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for Wilma

    14.66

    19.92

    14.99

    19.02

    17.96

    17.75

    16.1

    14.69

    21.89

    31.27

    19.11

    30.7

    26.07

    25.56

    23.85

    19.24

    24.53

    36.61

    24.05

    40.68

    35.6

    32.31

    31.27

    22.45

    25.09

    41.56

    25.25

    48.72

    41

    39.05

    33.53

    26.14

    24.26

    41.29

    26.11

    52.78

    40.57

    36.56

    34.09

    24.02

    23.89

    44.85

    29.45

    56.48

    40.59

    30.31

    33.64

    22.06

    24.94

    48.8

    33.85

    58.43

    46.08

    24.07

    35.32

    17.76

    23.99

    51.42

    32.78

    55.04

    39.9

    23

    33.25

    23.01

    wilmainit

    OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIFSSE

    1214.6619.9214.9919.0217.9617.7516.114.69

    2421.8931.2719.1130.726.0725.5623.8519.24

    3624.5336.6124.0540.6835.632.3131.2722.45

    4825.0941.5625.2548.724139.0533.5326.14

    6024.2641.2926.1152.7840.5736.5634.0924.02

    7223.8944.8529.4556.4840.5930.3133.6422.06

    8424.9448.833.8558.4346.0824.0735.3217.76

    9623.9951.4232.7855.0439.92333.2523.01

  • Hurricane Wilma Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84Forecast Hours

    Err

    ors

    (km

    )

    OFCIAVNIUKMIGUNANGPIGFDIFSSE

    Chart2

    12121212121212

    24242424242424

    36363636363636

    48484848484848

    60606060606060

    72727272727272

    84848484848484

    OFCI

    AVNI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    NGPI

    GFDI

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Mean Absolute Track Errors for Wilma

    41.11

    49.46

    42.35

    39.36

    58.81

    54.16

    35.43

    60.3

    85.96

    61.41

    69.3

    104.13

    97.63

    54.45

    86.8

    104.09

    68.95

    86.48

    135.01

    115.56

    64.83

    132.05

    127.54

    96

    121.68

    192

    154.91

    100.43

    198.83

    175.67

    146.05

    167.56

    246.94

    212.75

    161.42

    282.21

    251.15

    218.91

    235.12

    312.52

    297.27

    244.12

    411.73

    343.67

    312.47

    302.9

    361.79

    394.55

    312.83

    Chart1

    12121212121212

    24242424242424

    36363636363636

    48484848484848

    60606060606060

    72727272727272

    84848484848484

    OFCI

    AVNI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    NGPI

    GFDI

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Hurricane Wilma Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)

    41.11

    49.46

    42.35

    39.36

    58.81

    54.16

    35.43

    60.3

    85.96

    61.41

    69.3

    104.13

    97.63

    54.45

    86.8

    104.09

    68.95

    86.48

    135.01

    115.56

    64.83

    132.05

    127.54

    96

    121.68

    192

    154.91

    100.43

    198.83

    175.67

    146.05

    167.56

    246.94

    212.75

    161.42

    282.21

    251.15

    218.91

    235.12

    312.52

    297.27

    244.12

    411.73

    343.67

    312.47

    302.9

    361.79

    394.55

    312.83

    wilmatrk

    OFCIAVNIUKMIGUNANGPIGFDIFSSE

    1241.1149.4642.3539.3658.8154.1635.43

    2460.385.9661.4169.3104.1397.6354.45

    3686.8104.0968.9586.48135.01115.5664.83

    48132.05127.5496121.68192154.91100.43

    60198.83175.67146.05167.56246.94212.75161.42

    72282.21251.15218.91235.12312.52297.27244.12

    84411.73343.67312.47302.9361.79394.55312.83

  • Stormwise 24, 48 and 72 hour Mean Absolute Track Errors for Superensemble

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Arlen

    eCi

    ndy

    Denn

    isEm

    ily

    Fran

    klin

    Harve

    yIre

    ne

    Katri

    naMa

    ria

    Ophe

    lia

    Philip

    pe Rita

    Stan

    Wilm

    aBe

    ta

    Storm Names

    Erro

    rs (k

    m)

    244872

    Chart1

    ArleneArleneArlene

    CindyCindyCindy

    DennisDennisDennis

    EmilyEmilyEmily

    FranklinFranklinFranklin

    HarveyHarveyHarvey

    IreneIreneIrene

    KatrinaKatrinaKatrina

    MariaMariaMaria

    OpheliaOpheliaOphelia

    PhilippePhilippePhilippe

    RitaRitaRita

    StanStanStan

    WilmaWilmaWilma

    BetaBetaBeta

    24

    48

    72

    Storm Names

    Errors (km)

    Stormwise 24, 48 and 72 hour Mean Absolute Track Errors for Superensemble

    91.3

    112

    57

    79.5

    121

    136

    77

    141

    200

    142

    284

    592

    106

    139

    152

    86

    185

    257

    77

    174

    289

    81

    152

    49

    103

    206

    125

    190

    344

    77

    162

    236

    90

    54

    100

    244

    69

    94

    Chart2

    ArleneArleneArlene

    CindyCindyCindy

    DennisDennisDennis

    EmilyEmilyEmily

    FranklinFranklinFranklin

    HarveyHarveyHarvey

    IreneIreneIrene

    KatrinaKatrinaKatrina

    MariaMariaMaria

    OpheliaOpheliaOphelia

    PhilippePhilippePhilippe

    RitaRitaRita

    StanStanStan

    WilmaWilmaWilma

    BetaBetaBeta

    24

    48

    72

    Storm Names

    Errors (mph)

    Stromwise performance of Superensemble at 24. 48 and 72 hours

    9.22

    3.01

    4.84

    20

    28

    22

    21

    18

    21

    6

    15

    23

    6

    4

    5

    7

    15

    19

    21

    40

    69

    7

    3

    33

    8

    13

    13

    16

    27

    39

    23

    21

    31

    15

    19

    26

    22

    12

    15

    Sheet1

    By Storm

    ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta

    2491.35779.5771421068677814912577905469

    4811212114128413918517415210319016210094

    72136200592152257289206344236244

    ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta

    249.224.84202166721781623151912

    483.012818154154031327212615

    72222123519693313393122

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Stromwise performance of Intensity Superensemble at 24, 48 and 72 hours

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    Arlen

    eCi

    ndy

    Denn

    isEm

    ily

    Fran

    klin

    Harve

    yIre

    ne

    Katri

    naMa

    ria

    Ophe

    lia

    Philip

    pe Rita

    Stan

    Wilm

    aBe

    ta

    Storm Names

    Erro

    rs (m

    ph)

    244872

    Chart1

    ArleneArleneArlene

    CindyCindyCindy

    DennisDennisDennis

    EmilyEmilyEmily

    FranklinFranklinFranklin

    HarveyHarveyHarvey

    IreneIreneIrene

    KatrinaKatrinaKatrina

    MariaMariaMaria

    OpheliaOpheliaOphelia

    PhilippePhilippePhilippe

    RitaRitaRita

    StanStanStan

    WilmaWilmaWilma

    BetaBetaBeta

    24

    48

    72

    Storm Names

    Errors (km)

    Stormwise 24, 48 and 72 hour Mean Absolute Track Errors for Superensemble

    91.3

    112

    57

    79.5

    121

    136

    77

    141

    200

    142

    284

    592

    106

    139

    152

    86

    185

    257

    77

    174

    289

    81

    152

    49

    103

    206

    125

    190

    344

    77

    162

    236

    90

    54

    100

    244

    69

    94

    Chart2

    ArleneArleneArlene

    CindyCindyCindy

    DennisDennisDennis

    EmilyEmilyEmily

    FranklinFranklinFranklin

    HarveyHarveyHarvey

    IreneIreneIrene

    KatrinaKatrinaKatrina

    MariaMariaMaria

    OpheliaOpheliaOphelia

    PhilippePhilippePhilippe

    RitaRitaRita

    StanStanStan

    WilmaWilmaWilma

    BetaBetaBeta

    24

    48

    72

    Storm Names

    Errors (mph)

    Stromwise performance of Intensity Superensemble at 24, 48 and 72 hours

    9.22

    3.01

    4.84

    20

    28

    22

    21

    18

    21

    6

    15

    23

    6

    4

    5

    7

    15

    19

    21

    40

    69

    7

    3

    33

    8

    13

    13

    16

    27

    39

    23

    21

    31

    15

    19

    26

    22

    12

    15

    Sheet1

    By Storm

    ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta

    2491.35779.5771421068677814912577905469

    4811212114128413918517415210319016210094

    72136200592152257289206344236244

    ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta

    249.224.84202166721781623151912

    483.012818154154031327212615

    72222123519693313393122

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 season (km)

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (k

    m)

    OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSE

    Chart4

    12121212121212121212

    24242424242424242424

    36363636363636363636

    48484848484848484848

    60606060606060606060

    72727272727272727272

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    BAMS

    CLP5

    FSSE

    PRTFSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Error (km)

    Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 (km)

    62.9

    65.84

    63.04

    63.67

    69.17

    54.19

    94.25

    84.28

    53.36

    51.89

    108.45

    111.94

    106.16

    112.72

    120.5

    92.5

    170.33

    174.82

    90.36

    88.28

    155.41

    159.29

    144.73

    162.94

    168.68

    132.82

    237.53

    279.2

    130.84

    127.65

    195.96

    212.12

    186.93

    206.45

    213.07

    169.51

    300.68

    361.37

    169.07

    164.38

    235.18

    275.25

    242.74

    255.09

    269.23

    215.41

    369.41

    433.3

    219.84

    211.97

    288.55

    362.2

    316.04

    320.45

    293.42

    268.27

    443.98

    498.56

    287.83

    275.38

    Chart1

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    BAMS

    CLP5

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Mean Absolute Track Errors 2005 (km)

    62.9

    65.84

    63.04

    63.67

    69.17

    54.19

    94.25

    84.28

    53.36

    108.45

    111.94

    106.16

    112.72

    120.5

    92.5

    170.33

    174.82

    90.36

    155.41

    159.29

    144.73

    162.94

    168.68

    132.82

    237.53

    279.2

    130.84

    195.96

    212.12

    186.93

    206.45

    213.07

    169.51

    300.68

    361.37

    169.07

    235.18

    275.25

    242.74

    255.09

    269.23

    215.41

    369.41

    433.3

    219.84

    288.55

    362.2

    316.04

    320.45

    293.42

    268.27

    443.98

    498.56

    287.83

    345.53

    484.42

    405.51

    381.37

    340

    329.04

    530.39

    578.53

    361.38

    407.07

    619.35

    521.38

    450.53

    398.17

    396.53

    603.19

    660.05

    448.98

    436.16

    681.78

    592.44

    473.09

    418.8

    419.46

    649.22

    755.61

    469.39

    536.6

    777.45

    731.17

    561.82

    452.12

    505.42

    681.99

    854.13

    560.46

    Chart2

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    BAMS

    CLP5

    FSSE

    Forecast Hour

    Error (km)

    Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 (km)

    62.9

    65.84

    63.04

    63.67

    69.17

    54.19

    94.25

    84.28

    53.36

    108.45

    111.94

    106.16

    112.72

    120.5

    92.5

    170.33

    174.82

    90.36

    155.41

    159.29

    144.73

    162.94

    168.68

    132.82

    237.53

    279.2

    130.84

    195.96

    212.12

    186.93

    206.45

    213.07

    169.51

    300.68

    361.37

    169.07

    235.18

    275.25

    242.74

    255.09

    269.23

    215.41

    369.41

    433.3

    219.84

    288.55

    362.2

    316.04

    320.45

    293.42

    268.27

    443.98

    498.56

    287.83

    Chart3

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    BAMS

    CLP5

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Mean Absolute track Errors for 2005 (km)

    62.9

    65.84

    63.04

    63.67

    69.17

    54.19

    94.25

    84.28

    51.89

    108.45

    111.94

    106.16

    112.72

    120.5

    92.5

    170.33

    174.82

    88.28

    155.41

    159.29

    144.73

    162.94

    168.68

    132.82

    237.53

    279.2

    127.65

    195.96

    212.12

    186.93

    206.45

    213.07

    169.51

    300.68

    361.37

    164.38

    235.18

    275.25

    242.74

    255.09

    269.23

    215.41

    369.41

    433.3

    211.97

    288.55

    362.2

    316.04

    320.45

    293.42

    268.27

    443.98

    498.56

    275.38

    Chart5

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    NGPI

    UKMI

    GUNA

    BAMS

    CLP5

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 season (km)

    62.9

    65.84

    63.04

    63.67

    69.17

    54.19

    94.25

    84.28

    53.36

    108.45

    111.94

    106.16

    112.72

    120.5

    92.5

    170.33

    174.82

    90.36

    155.41

    159.29

    144.73

    162.94

    168.68

    132.82

    237.53

    279.2

    130.84

    195.96

    212.12

    186.93

    206.45

    213.07

    169.51

    300.68

    361.37

    169.07

    235.18

    275.25

    242.74

    255.09

    269.23

    215.41

    369.41

    433.3

    219.84

    288.55

    362.2

    316.04

    320.45

    293.42

    268.27

    443.98

    498.56

    287.83

    345.53

    484.42

    405.51

    381.37

    340

    329.04

    530.39

    578.53

    361.38

    407.07

    619.35

    521.38

    450.53

    398.17

    396.53

    603.19

    660.05

    448.98

    436.16

    681.78

    592.44

    473.09

    418.8

    419.46

    649.22

    755.61

    469.39

    536.6

    777.45

    731.17

    561.82

    452.12

    505.42

    681.99

    854.13

    560.46

    track

    IdFSSEENSM

    1253.3655.32

    2490.3694.62

    36130.84136.5

    48169.07172.67

    60219.84213.88

    72287.83270.21

    84361.38336.15

    96448.98406.29

    108469.39431.5

    120560.46519.87

    OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSE

    1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2584.2853.36

    24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.33174.8290.36

    36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53279.2130.84

    48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68361.37169.07

    60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41433.3219.84

    72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98498.56287.83

    84345.53484.42405.51381.37340329.04530.39578.53361.38

    96407.07619.35521.38450.53398.17396.53603.19660.05448.98

    108436.16681.78592.44473.09418.8419.46649.22755.61469.39

    120536.6777.45731.17561.82452.12505.42681.99854.13560.46

    IdCLP5ETAIAF1IGUNAGUNSBAMD

    1284.2894.9677.5554.1955.0171.6

    24174.82175.21129.6592.593.67127.81

    36279.2262.97186.59132.82134.5181.91

    48361.37348.12234.99169.51169.53239.16

    60433.3439.34303.31215.41214.03300.83

    72498.56520.87389.58268.27257.59382.08

    84578.53572.88-99.9329.04305.36509.62

    96660.05-99.9-99.9396.53368.65655.57

    108755.61-99.9-99.9419.46387.32778.47

    120854.13-99.9-99.9505.42465.83968.06

    IdBAMMBAMSA9UKA98ELBARGFNI

    1268.6294.2575.3474.566.6669.65

    24117.67170.33135.02129.65127.74122.38

    36167.19237.53201.52188.98204.21175.88

    48217.45300.68262.95255.33292.66231.91

    60277.24369.41335.78322.15409.24304.32

    72351.43443.98408.87394.81567.39385.63

    84449.77530.39-99.9480.03728.03454.09

    96538.85603.19-99.9588.95895.07540.17

    108561.88649.22-99.9677.261173.29531.17

    120661.44681.99-99.9756.421538.56646.21

    Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6Model 7FSSE

    1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2553.36

    24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.3390.36

    36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53130.84

    48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68169.07

    60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41219.84

    72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98287.83

    OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSEPRTFSSE

    1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2584.2853.3651.89

    24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.33174.8290.3688.28

    36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53279.2130.84127.65

    48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68361.37169.07164.38

    60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41433.3219.84211.97

    72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98498.56287.83275.38

    OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSE

    1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2584.2851.89

    24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.33174.8288.28

    36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53279.2127.65

    48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68361.37164.38

    60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41433.3211.97

    72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98498.56275.38

    track

    Model 1

    Model 2

    Model 3

    Model 4

    Model 5

    Model 6

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Error (km)

    2005 Mean Absolute Track Errors

  • Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for 2005 (m/s)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (m

    /s)

    OFCIGFSIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    Chart1

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hour

    Error (mph)

    Mean Absolute Intensity Errors 2005 (mph)

    10.17

    12.97

    10.63

    14.43

    11.71

    10.32

    11.77

    11.23

    9.87

    14.73

    19.82

    15.22

    22.57

    17.72

    14.66

    18.39

    16.45

    14.35

    16.91

    24.41

    17.67

    27.44

    20.75

    16.91

    22.77

    19.51

    16.55

    19.44

    27.71

    18.89

    31.08

    22.78

    19.99

    26

    23.06

    18.74

    21.25

    30.21

    21.12

    32.98

    24.2

    21.72

    27.54

    25.92

    21.04

    21.74

    31.54

    21.82

    34.29

    25.93

    23.91

    28

    27.13

    22.07

    21.55

    34.1

    23.07

    35.88

    27.53

    22.93

    26.89

    29.02

    23.22

    22.89

    35.57

    26.61

    36.54

    27.06

    24.68

    30

    30.19

    25.01

    24.68

    34.98

    28.45

    34.01

    26.74

    27.45

    34.18

    28.46

    25.56

    23.88

    33.49

    27.64

    30.18

    28.37

    28.37

    35.02

    23.67

    25.14

    Chart2

    1212121212121212

    2424242424242424

    3636363636363636

    4848484848484848

    6060606060606060

    7272727272727272

    8484848484848484

    9696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120

    GFSI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hour

    Errors (mph)

    Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)

    12.97

    10.63

    14.43

    11.71

    10.32

    11.77

    11.23

    9.87

    19.82

    15.22

    22.57

    17.72

    14.66

    18.39

    16.45

    14.35

    24.41

    17.67

    27.44

    20.75

    16.91

    22.77

    19.51

    16.55

    27.71

    18.89

    31.08

    22.78

    19.99

    26

    23.06

    18.74

    30.21

    21.12

    32.98

    24.2

    21.72

    27.54

    25.92

    21.04

    31.54

    21.82

    34.29

    25.93

    23.91

    28

    27.13

    22.07

    34.1

    23.07

    35.88

    27.53

    22.93

    26.89

    29.02

    23.22

    35.57

    26.61

    36.54

    27.06

    24.68

    30

    30.19

    25.01

    34.98

    28.45

    34.01

    26.74

    27.45

    34.18

    28.46

    25.56

    33.49

    27.64

    30.18

    28.37

    28.37

    35.02

    23.67

    25.14

    Chart3

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hour

    Errors (mph)

    Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for 2005 (mph)

    10.17

    12.97

    10.63

    14.43

    11.71

    10.32

    11.77

    11.23

    9.87

    14.73

    19.82

    15.22

    22.57

    17.72

    14.66

    18.39

    16.45

    14.35

    16.91

    24.41

    17.67

    27.44

    20.75

    16.91

    22.77

    19.51

    16.55

    19.44

    27.71

    18.89

    31.08

    22.78

    19.99

    26

    23.06

    18.74

    21.25

    30.21

    21.12

    32.98

    24.2

    21.72

    27.54

    25.92

    21.04

    21.74

    31.54

    21.82

    34.29

    25.93

    23.91

    28

    27.13

    22.07

    Chart4

    121212121212121212

    242424242424242424

    363636363636363636

    484848484848484848

    606060606060606060

    727272727272727272

    848484848484848484

    969696969696969696

    108108108108108108108108108

    120120120120120120120120120

    OFCI

    GFSI

    GFDI

    UKMI

    SHF5

    DSHP

    GFNI

    ENSM

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (m/s)

    Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for 2005 (m/s)

    10.17

    12.97

    10.63

    14.43

    11.71

    10.32

    11.77

    11.23

    9.87

    14.73

    19.82

    15.22

    22.57

    17.72

    14.66

    18.39

    16.45

    14.35

    16.91

    24.41

    17.67

    27.44

    20.75

    16.91

    22.77

    19.51

    16.55

    19.44

    27.71

    18.89

    31.08

    22.78

    19.99

    26

    23.06

    18.74

    21.25

    30.21

    21.12

    32.98

    24.2

    21.72

    27.54

    25.92

    21.04

    21.74

    31.54

    21.82

    34.29

    25.93

    23.91

    28

    27.13

    22.07

    21.55

    34.1

    23.07

    35.88

    27.53

    22.93

    26.89

    29.02

    23.22

    22.89

    35.57

    26.61

    36.54

    27.06

    24.68

    30

    30.19

    25.01

    24.68

    34.98

    28.45

    34.01

    26.74

    27.45

    34.18

    28.46

    25.56

    23.88

    33.49

    27.64

    30.18

    28.37

    28.37

    35.02

    23.67

    25.14

    inten

    12

    24

    36

    48

    60

    72

    84

    96

    108

    120

    OFCIGFSIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE

    1210.1712.9710.6314.4311.7110.3211.7711.239.87

    2414.7319.8215.2222.5717.7214.6618.3916.4514.35

    3616.9124.4117.6727.4420.7516.9122.7719.5116.55

    4819.4427.7118.8931.0822.7819.992623.0618.74

    6021.2530.2121.1232.9824.221.7227.5425.9221.04

    7221.7431.5421.8234.2925.9323.912827.1322.07

    8421.5534.123.0735.8827.5322.9326.8929.0223.22

    9622.8935.5726.6136.5427.0624.683030.1925.01

    10824.6834.9828.4534.0126.7427.4534.1828.4625.56

    12023.8833.4927.6430.1828.3728.3735.0223.6725.14

    Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6FSSE

    124.545995.797594.751616.450215.234374.613044.41189

    246.584318.859546.8033410.088797.920846.553026.41445

    367.5587710.911277.8984912.265689.275257.558777.397850.447

    488.6896812.386378.4438313.8927610.182668.935538.37678

    609.4987513.503879.4406414.7420610.81749.708849.40488

    729.7177814.098389.7535415.3276311.5907110.687779.86529

    inten

    Model 1

    Model 2

    Model 3

    Model 4

    Model 5

    Model 6

    FSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (m/s)

    2005 Mean Absolute Intensity Errors

  • Timing error corrections

    Timing errors are caused by the error in the forecasts of the translation velocity of the hurricane

    For a given hour of forecast the correction is obtained from training phase and it is applied in the forecast phase

    At present we are still testing it and if found consistent will be implemented in the next season

  • Post Real time Superensemble track errors for 2005

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Forecast Hours

    Erro

    rs (k

    m)

    RTFSSEPRTFSSE

    Correction applied on around 400 forecasts on 2005 season realtime data sets. The track errors improved by as much as 60 km at 120 hour.

    Chart1

    1212

    2424

    3636

    4848

    6060

    7272

    8484

    9696

    108108

    120120

    RTFSSE

    PRTFSSE

    Forecast Hours

    Errors (km)

    Post Real time Superensemble track errors for 2005

    53.36

    51.89

    90.36

    88.28

    130.84

    127.65

    169.07

    164.38

    219.84

    211.97

    287.83

    275.38

    361.38

    354.52

    448.98

    429.83

    469.39

    431.51

    560.46

    499.31

    tcorse_mae

    RTFSSEPRTFSSE

    1253.3651.89

    2490.3688.28

    36130.84127.65

    48169.07164.38

    60219.84211.97

    72287.83275.38

    84361.38354.52

    96448.98429.83

    108469.39431.51

    120560.46499.31

  • Training Issues

    Training forms the backbone of the Superensemble Technique The larger the training data set, better the forecast in general Model changes during later part of 2004 season and during the 2005 season, affected the Superensemble performance

  • During the early part of the 2005 season the length of the modified training set was small making the forecast less spectacular as we saw in 2004 season

    As the season progressed new data sets were

    included in the training set which helped in improving the Superensemble forecasts

  • Conclusions Superensemble did a fairly good job in predicting the tracks

    through 72 hour of forecast

    Superensemble produced the best intensity forecasts along with DSHP at most forecast times

    The performance was not so impressive as 2004 probably due to large scale model changes which seriously affected the training data sets

    Post realtime analysis with the correction in the timings improved the skill of the Superensemble and will be implemented in the next hurricane season

  • Acknowledgements

    NHC/TPC for providing the input member models in real-time

    All of the dynamical modeling centers (NCEP, GFDL, FNMOC, UKMO) for providing hurricane track and intensity forecast data to NHC

  • Thank You

    Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble during 2005 Atlantic SeasonOutline Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Formulation of Superensemble….ContdOverview of operationsSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Performance of FSSESlide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Hurricane KatrinaSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Hurricane RitaSlide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Timing error correctionsSlide Number 40Training IssuesSlide Number 42ConclusionsAcknowledgementsSlide Number 45