Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’

Feb. 24, 2014

Loads in SCED v2

Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting

15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’

ERCOT

2 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014

Summary

• Charts show comparisons of Load and Net Load forecasted values to corresponding SCED actuals for calendar year 2013– Load and Net Load forecasts are inputs to indicative ‘look-

ahead’ price application– Charts compare forecasted values to first interval, and 15-minute

& 30-minute ‘look-ahead’• Errors are shown in terms of MW as well as % of actual demand

(or actual net load)

Note:• Results show that improvements to forecast values will be

needed in order to move forward on a Real-Time multi-interval optimization framework– Current Short-Term Load forecast application methodology (5

minute granularity) was developed in the Zonal market – There is currently no Short-Term Wind forecast (5 minute

granularity)


Terminology

• MW Forecast Error in GTBD = Forecast Demand – Actual Demand

• % Forecast Error in GTBD = MW Error in Forecast Demand / Actual Demand

• Net Actual Load = Actual Demand – Total Telemetered Wind MW output

• Forecast Net Load = Forecast Demand – Forecast Wind MW output

• MW Forecast Error in Net Load = Forecast Net Load – Net Actual Load

• % Forecast Error in Net Load = MW Error in Net Load / Net Actual Load

• Actual demand is the GTBD used by SCED


Summary

GTBD Error Mean (MW) Standard Deviation (MW)

Mean (%) Standard Deviation (%)

First Interval 0.01 MW 2.58 MW 0.000035 % 0.00751 %

15 minutes -3.22 MW 251.85 MW -0.0031 % 0.6842 %

30 minutes -2.53 MW 369.07 MW -0.0037 % 1.00126 %

Net Load Error

Mean (MW) Standard Deviation (MW)

Mean (%) Standard Deviation (%)

First Interval 0.01 MW 2.58 MW 0.000044 % 0.00894 %

15 minutes -3.22 MW 284 MW -0.00478 % 0.8855 %

30 minutes -2.59 MW 456.8 MW -0.01206 % 1.4363 %


Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : First Interval

Mean = 0.01 MWStandard Deviation = 2.58 MW


Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead”

Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 251.85 MW


Forecasted Demand Error (%) : First Interval

Mean = 0.000035 %Standard Deviation = 0.00751 %


Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead”

Mean = -0.0031 %Standard Deviation = 0.6842 %


Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : First Interval



Forecasted Demand Error (%) : First Interval


Net Load Forecast Error

Feb. 24, 2014 Loads in SCED v2


Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : First Interval



Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead”

Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 284 MW


Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : First Interval



Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead”



Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : First Interval




Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 284 MW


Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : First Interval


Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’

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