Performance and Asset Gathering Outlook for Quant Funds
30
22 May 2012 Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Performance and Asset Gathering Outlook for Quant Funds Inigo Fraser Jenkins Nomura International plc
Transcript of Performance and Asset Gathering Outlook for Quant Funds
22 May 2012
Any authors named on this report
are research analysts unless
otherwise indicated.
See Appendix A-1 for analyst
certification, important
disclosures and the status of
non-US analysts.
Performance and Asset Gathering Outlook for Quant Funds
Inigo Fraser Jenkins
Nomura International plc
1
• Upgrading outlook for quants
• Is the quant “problem” really a low tracking error “problem”
• What parts of quant are doing well, and suggestions for asset growth
• A comment on Greece – and what happens to factors
Upgrading Quant
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3 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Quantitative research
Relative performance of long-only
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Jan 2010 = 100 Index
β t-statistic
Correlation -7.57 -4.79
Growth 0.41 4.45
Value 2.42 5.76
Momentum -0.68 -5.49
Constant -5.40 -3.96
R2 0.52
Meta Model
tttttt MomentumGrowthValueCorrelr 4321:
Where Correl is the average pairwise correlation between stocks. Value, Growth and Momentum all refer
to the dispersion of these factors across the market.
Source: Nomura Equity Strategy
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Predicted Return
Predicted returns using current level of 25 day correlation
Predicted 12 month forward relative returns of global quants
Relative return %
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Quantitative research
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Predicted returns
using current level
of 25 day correlation
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Global correlation is defined as the mean of all the pairwise correlations between stocks over the prior 75 days. Universe is the 500 largest stocks in the FTSE World index. US correlation is the median 63-
Day correlation of S&P 500 Stocks to the S&P 500 Index.
Source: Nomura Equity Strategy, Ned Davis
Average correlation of stocks Global and US
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Correlation Correlation
US - Median 63-day correlation of S&P 500 stocks to the S&P 500 index (LHS)
Global - 75 day mean pair-wise correlation (RHS)
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Figure shows the correlation coefficient between x day forward relative returns of the Nomura global quant index relative to the global market and the x-day average pairwise correlation of global stocks, using a symmetrical period in the
look-back window for the calculation of correlation and in the measurement of forward returns.
Source: Nomura Quantitative research
Correlation of x- day correlation measures and x-day forward quant
returns
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Corr
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Number of days
Since Jan 2002
Since Jan 2007
8 Source: Nomura Strategy research
Correlation of periphery equity markets
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Correlation coefficient Average 60 day correlation average pairwise ex Greece
Is the quant “problem” really a low tracking error “problem”
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Quant fund AUM as a share of active equity (Global ex Asia)
Figure shows the total assets under management for quant funds that are present throughout our sample since 2007 as a percentage of the total amount of assets invested in active equity mandates that are either global or
have the US, Europe or Australia as their benchmark. Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, Nomura Equity Strategy research
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%
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11 Figure shows the percentage of funds in our quant and non-quant fund samples split by tracking error over the last year. Source: Nomura Quantitative research
Distribution of tracking errors: quant and non quant
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Fre
qu
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Tracking Error Bin
non quants
quants
AUM share of tracking error subsets of non-quant funds and AUM
of low tracking error non-quants compared to AUM of quants
Left hand panel shows the AUM share of different tracking error groups of non-quant funds, with tracking error being measured over the past year. Right hand panel shows the AUM share of all quant funds overlaid on the AUM share of
low tracking error non-quants. For a universe of European-benchmarked funds. Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Quantitative research 12
AUM share of the 3 groups of T-E subgroups for non quant AUM share of quant funds and low TE non-quant funds
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% 0-5 track error
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>11 track error
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% % Non quants (LHS)
Quants (RHS)
AUM of different tracking error subgroups of quants and AUM of
long-short quants
Left hand panel shows the AUM of quant funds by tracking error tranche which tracking error measured over the past year. AUM is expressed as a percentage of total active equity AUM. The right hand panel shows the AUM of global long
short quant funds. Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Quantitative research, EPFR 13
AUM of high and low TE quants AUM of long-only funds
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% % [5-10] (LHS)
>10 (LHS)
[<5] (RHS)
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US$m
What parts of quant are doing well, and suggestions for asset growth
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Share of AUM for dynamic and static quant funds
Percentage AUM as a share of active equity funds
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research
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Static
Dynamic
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Performance of dynamic vs static quant funds
Chart shows the performance of quant funds that use a dynamic factor allocation strategy relative to those that use a static approach
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research
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Asset share for funds with differing levels of discretion
Percentage AUM as a share of active equity funds
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research
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Quant with discretionary views on single stocks
Quant with broad discretionary views possible
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Performance of funds with and without discretion
Performance of funds that employ different levels of discretion relative to pure quant funds with no discretion.
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research
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broad discretion/pure quant
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Asset share of funds with different rebalancing cycles
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Percentage AUM as a share of active equity funds
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research 19
Performance of funds with different rebalancing cycles
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Weekly Monthly
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Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research
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Asset share of funds that use macro factors
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Percentage AUM as a share of active equity funds
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research 21
AUM share minimum variance strategies
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Percentage AUM as a share of active equity funds
Source: Nomura Quantitative Strategy research 22
Some suggestions on how to grow quant AUM
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• Performance! Though easier said than done
• Discretionary and dynamic approaches have gained market share
• Flexible approach to rebalancing
• Macro inputs
• Long-short quants have held onto assets
• Higher tracking error? (but depends on one‟s strategy)
• Emerging and frontier markets
• Alternative Beta
• Cost savings… though beware what one wishes for
A comment on Greece – and what happens to factors
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• 2nd election on 17th June probably unable to deliver
clear majority + hard for creditor nations to offer
more concessions to Greece
• But creditor nations have more patience with other
periphery countries
• Model as a two-stage binary tree with different
types of market move at each step
• Step 1: IF Greece exits sharp sentiment sell-off
• Step 2: What is the policy response? We think that
containment is possible. That could prompt
significant rally…
• …would be supported by record risk premium and
very low sentiment
Greece: What if?
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Price/book of Composite Value (Global and Europe)
Figure shows the price/book ratio of cheap/expensive quartile of stocks screened on an equal weighted composite basis by trailing price to book, trailing dividend yield and 12 month forward mean consensus price earnings
ratio. The baskets are rebalanced quarterly. The benchmark universe is the top 300 stocks in the FTSE World Europe universe and the top 500 stocks in the FTSE World universe.
Source: IBES, FTSE, Exshare, Nomura Equity Strategy research
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PE and PBK valuation of composite momentum (Europe)
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12m Fwd PE
Price/Book
Ratio
Figure shows the 12m forward PE and price/book ratio of Composite Momentum Style defined as the high momentum quartile of stocks relative to the low momentum quartile of stocks screened on an equal weighted composite
basis by the percentage change in average consensus 12 month forward earnings over the past 2 quarters and a simple 12 month price momentum. The baskets are rebalanced quarterly. The benchmark universe is the top 300
stocks in the FTSE World Europe universe.
Source: IBES, FTSE, Exshare, Nomura Equity Strategy research 27
28
Any Authors named on this report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated
Analyst Certification
I, Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research
report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my compensation is tied to any
specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.
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Appendix A-1
29
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