Perceptions, Reality and Devolution

Perceptions, reality and devolution Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

[email protected] 020 7347 3000

Labour need a 9.6% swing in England in 2020 to win

ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC IN 2020

House of Commons 2015

2.8 1.1

1.7 1.2

4.8

5.4 4.0

1.8 3.2

5.1

11.3

3.0 2.7

0.9 2.1

1.8 2.0

10.2

0.3

1945

1951

1959

1966

1974 (Feb)

1979

1987

1997

2005

2015

Swing to Con

Swing to Lab

3 3

Most predictions are wrong

The election, the polls, and aftermath

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

[email protected] @benatipsosmori

Taking a hammering…

Exit poll - 316 Result - 331



Exit poll - 58

Result - 21



Result - 56

Exit poll - 23

Source: Ipsos MORI/GfK NOP for BBC/ITV News/Sky News

Asking what did do,

rather than what

will…

We got highest

Conservative

share and

lowest error on

this key

calculation of

who would be

largest party…

Average percentage point error on

Conservative/Labour vote share

Lots of social media activity by the young, fewer votes

So what’s worrying voters and residents?

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

NHS UNEMPLOYMENT

CRIME/LAW &

ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION*

*Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants

Cameron becomes PM

Education / Schools not a problem What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

Introduction of means-tested tuition

fees. Education most important issue.

First City Academies

introduced

Lowest score since

Dec 1985 (9%)

Labour’s second term - pledge to

improve failing secondary schools

April 2011 – Pupil

Premium introduced


Cameron becomes PM

Issues Facing Britain:

Defence / Foreign Affairs / International terrorism What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

9/11 London

Bombs

Invasion of Iraq –

protests across Europe

Failed terror

attacks in London

and Glasgow

UK withdraws

from Iraq

War in

Kosovo

Parliamentary vote

against action in Syria

NATO bombing

in Libya

Rise of

ISIS


Cameron becomes PM

Poverty/inequality? What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

5

10

15

20

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

Sept 1999:

Alastair Darling – “one child in

three” living in poverty

July 2014:

highest score

recorded (18%)

January 2005:

Make Poverty History campaign

launched on New Year’s Day


Cameron becomes PM

Record concern about housing What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

A8 Countries

join the EU

House prices

rising at fastest

rate in 10 years

Highest score since

October 1974 (20%)


People do not think they are being affected by cuts AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A NUMBER OF SPENDING CUTS TO HELP REDUCE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, HAVE YOU AND YOUR

FAMILY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE CUTS SO FAR?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

8%

8%

25%

15%

49%

39%

10%

37%

8%

2%

November 2012

August 2015

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know

76% 23%

59% 33%

And concern about future effects of cuts decreased significantly…

AND HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CUTS

ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


19%

19%

42%

27%

28%

30%

5%

22%

6%

1%

November 2012

August 2015

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know

52% 46%

33% 61%

This is despite people being more likely to think services have got worse than better

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015

THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC SERVICES HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME?

Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

3%

4%

12%

12%

42%

39%

20%

23%

20%

20%

3%

3%

September 2013

September 2015

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

16%

40% 15%

43%

And most still disagree the government has the right policies for public services

On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain's

public services.

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ every month Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Jun

-01

Nov-0

1

Ap

r-02

Se

p-0

2

Fe

b-0

3

Jul-

03

Dec-0

3

Ma

y-0

4

Oct-

04

Ma

r-0

5

Au

g-0

5

Jan

-06

Jun

-06

Nov-0

6

Ap

r-07

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Jul-

08

Dec-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

r-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

Nov-1

1

Ap

r-12

Se

p-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Jul-

13

Dec-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Oct-

14

Ma

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

56

37 Agree

Disagree

Public is seeing more decline in quality of health and social care than

they were two years ago

19

4%

2%

11%

7%

11%

10%

7%

11%

16%

17%

18%

17%

22%

27%

36%

34%

41%

33%

10%

16%

14%

19%

14%

19%

12%

20%

16%

16%

14%

19%

44%

24%

7%

7%

2%

3%

2013

2015

2013

2015

2013

2015


GP

surgeries

Hospitals

Care for the

elderly

Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

27% 38%

29% 28%

24% 35%

27% 30%

13% 36%

11% 22%

Users also on balance negative – more so in the case of care for the

elderly

9%

5%

11%

7%

10%

10%

13%

17%

16%

19%

19%

17%

27%

30%

36%

33%

42%

32%

13%

15%

15%

19%

14%

20%

19%

26%

17%

17%

14%

19%

12%

7%

5%

5%

1%

2%

2013 (210)

2015 (172)

2013 (888)

2015 (807)

2013 (938)

2015 (904)


Users of

GP

surgeries

Users of

hospitals

Users of

care for the

elderly

Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE)

27% 39%

29% 28%

26% 36%

27% 32%

22% 41%

22% 32%

Anxiety about the NHS takes off…..

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

21 THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60M

ar-

02

Oct-

02

Ma

y-0

3

Dec-0

3

Jul-

04

Fe

b-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Ap

r-06

Nov-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

y-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jul-

11

Fe

b-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ap

r-13

Nov-1

3

Jun

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

55

19 Better

Worse

We’re evenly split of whether education will to get better, worse

or stay the same THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

5%

26%

32%

23%

9%

5%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

31%

32%

LOCAL SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE?

13%

10%

27%

26%

7%

6%

8%

8%

16%

12%

21%

22%

12%

16%

12%

11%

45%

51%

37%

34%

54%

47%

58%

57%

11%

13%

6%

8%

10%

12%

9%

10%

12%

12%

6%

7%

11%

14%

8%

10%

3%

2%

3%

3%

5%

5%

4%

5%

2013

Aug-15

2013

Sep-15

2013

Aug-15

2013

Aug-15


Street

lighting

Refuse

collection

Street

cleaning

Recycling

collection

No big shifts in views of local street scene services – just slight increases

in people saying they’ve got worse

24

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015

Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout

Anniversary poll


19% 20%

20% 17%

19%

26%

22%

15%

22%

21%

48%

25%

48% 12%

29% 23%

15%

12%

9%

7%

14%

10%

18%

20%

11%

12%

11%

14%

44%

46%

35%

35%

38%

33%

9%

10%

9%

14%

4%

9%

6%

6%

7%

9%

3%

6%

8%

6%

29%

23%

30%

29%

2013

Aug-15

2013

Sep-15

2013

Aug-15


Leisure

centres

Parks and open

spaces

Libraries

Slightly greater shifts towards thinking leisure centres and libraries

have got worse – but relatively few noticing changes

25

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll


24% 15%

25% 7%

20%

23%

33%

16%

19%

16%

32%

15%

4%

4%

8%

8%

7%

10%

13%

11%

20%

28%

39%

37%

18%

18%

11%

14%

49%

39%

8%

11%

2%

2%

20%

20%

2013

Aug-15

2013

Aug-15


Bus services

Road

maintenance

Concern about road maintenance still very high

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll


19% 25%

21% 19%

11%

57% 14%

67%

Expectations split on future of public transport THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?


5%

21%

36%

24%

8%

6%


26%

32%

LOCAL POLICING UNDER PRESSURE

5%

3%

10%

9%

43%

39%

15%

21%

13%

18%

13%

10%

2013

Sep-15


The police

More worried about policing

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll


12% 39%

28% 15%

A third also expect local policing to get worse in the next few years THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?


3% 12%

46%

26%

9%

4%


15%

35%

31%

27%

16%

21%

12%

18%

16%

15%

21%

16%

4%

3%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

2015

2013

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout

Anniversary poll

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

People more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to welfare

gone too far…

I THINK CUTS TO WELFARE AND BENEFITS HAVE GONE TOO FAR

48% 31%

37% 47%

29%

22%

30%

25%

11%

16%

9%

17%

16%

17%

6%

3%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

2015

2013

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

…although they also think the cuts have been necessary – but less so

than in 2013

I THINK REDUCTIONS IN SOCIAL WELFARE BENEFITS HAVE BEEN NECESSARY

But people are not

always consistent:

eg 37% of those

who think welfare

cuts have gone too

far also think that

the reductions in

benefits have been

necessary

47% 34%

25% 59%

CUTS AND MISPERCEPTIONS

AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR?

40%

28%

November 2012

August 2015

People think only 28% of planned cuts have been

made – less than they thought in 2012


I WOULD NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE.

-20% -9%

-12% -6%

4% -3%

-1% -5%

-19% 0%

13% -2%

-13% 1%

-49% -5%

65% 11%

-54%

+44%

+14%

-15%

+19%

-4%

-7%

+6%

+11%

Source: Ipsos MORI

Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid]

Housing [housing development: local authority

and other social housing]

Education [all education services from pre-primary to

tertiary and others*]

Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and old

age personal social services]

Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway and

other transport]

Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and

pensions]

Health services / NHS [includes medical services and

research and central and other health services]

Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and

other defence and foreign military aid]

Policing [includes immigration and

citizenship and other police services]

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

But public is wrong about lots of things….

Gap

DEVOLUTION

Source: Ipsos MORI Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015

As long as services are delivered well, most do not care who makes the decisions,

14%

7%

38%

29%

22%

36%

15%

14%

6%

8%

5%

6%

I don’t care who is

responsible for making

decisions about services in

my local area so long as

they are delivered well

I trust local

politicians/councillors more

than national

politicians/MPs and

ministers to make decisions

about services in my local

area

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements…?

Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)

52%

36%

Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015

You what? Devolution less exciting to them than you

Q. Before today, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about the proposals for devolving more power to local councils, or groups of councils, within England?


23%

25%

27%

22%

19%

21%

20%

17%

3%

17%

34%

25%

17%

3%

A great deal

A fair amount

Just a little

Heard of, but knownothing about

Never heard of

Don't know

16%

% knowing ‘a great deal’ or a ‘fair

amount’ about devolution

76%


All regions support more devolution

Q. Thinking overall, to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving more decision-making powers (on issues

such as economic development, transport, housing, planning and policing) to local areas?


14

16

19

14

15

18

17

20

18

17

57

54

53

48

46

46

46

44

42

49

Yorkshire and The Humber

North West

South West

East Midlands

West Midlands

South East

Greater London

North East

East of England

Overall

% Oppose % SupportNet +%

+42

+38

+33

+34

+31

+29

+28

+24

+24

+32


Support for increased accountability and flexibility to respond to local area

needs…however, only a third expect standards of public service to improve

59%

59%

56%

42%

33%

22%

3%

1%

1%

It will allow local councils and other local agencies like the

police to be more flexible in responding to changing local…

Local politicians know better than national politicians what is

best for the local area

Decisions affecting me should be made by local politicians

who are more accountable to local people

It will lead to better joining up and co-ordination between

public services in the local area

Standards of public services will improve in the local area

It will save money when delivering services

Something else

No reason

Don’t know

Q. Why do you say you support devolving more powers to local areas?

Base: All adults stating they support devolution (1862)


Concerns that devolution will result in a ‘postcode lottery’ when it

comes to service delivery – plus distrust in politicians

58%

58%

44%

43%

41%

41%

39%

36%

27%

11%

*%

1%

Standards of services risk being different depending on where

you live – a ‘postcode lottery’

I don’t trust local politicians to make the right decisions for the

local area

It will lead to services being less joined up

It will do nothing to improve local services

It won’t lead to savings

Local politicians do not always know what is best for the local

area

It will cost money to implement

Standards of service will decline in the local area

I think taxes will increase

Something else

No reason

Don’t know

Q. Why do you say you oppose devolving more powers to local areas?

Base: All stating they don’t support devolution (656)


On many issues say do want local control….

17%

25%

35%

36%

44%

56%

64%

65%

57%

47%

47%

38%

26%

18%

New housing developments

Transport, such as buses/cycle

network & trains

Schools and further education

colleges

Crime and policing services

Health and social care services

New infrastructure projects

related to air/rail/road networks

Welfare benefit payments, such

as HB and CTC

Nationally Locally

Q. For each of the following services, do you think decisions should be taken nationally for England as a whole or

locally by local bodies such as councils or other local service providers?



But also want SAME STANDARDS everywhere….

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement…?


36%

35%

16%

6% 1% 5%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

“Standards of public

services should be

the same everywhere in

England”


Need to elect a mayor is more likely than not to make public support

devolution, although over a quarter are undecided

17%

19%

15%

13%

9%

27%

I support more devolution

regardless of the need to elect a…

I am more likely to support

devolution if I have to elect a…

I am less likely to support devolution

if I have to elect a mayor

I do not support devolution anyway

regardless of whether it might…

None of the above

Don’t know

Q. Which of these statements comes closest to your views about devolution and the need for a mayor?



Most people think the London mayor has had a positive impact


9%

37%

31%

6%

3%

15%

Very positive Fairly positive No impact

Fairly negative Very negative Don't know

Q. As you may know London has an independent elected mayor, currently Boris Johnson. Do you think that having an independently elected mayor has had a positive or negative impact on London?

10%

9%

9%

9%

8%

8%

8%

8%

6%

9%

40%

42%

36%

30%

37%

37%

36%

26%

36%

37%

South East

Greater London

South West

West Midlands

Yorkshire and The…

East of England

East Midlands

North East

North West

Overall

Very positive impact Fairly positive impact

45%

Source: Ipsos MORI Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015

7%

25%

30%

15%

10%

14%

Consistently find mixed views of giving tax/spend powers to you

Q. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving similar powers around tax and spending for…


7%

26%

30%

14%

10%

13%

STRONGLY SUPPORT

TEND TO SUPPORT

NEITHER SUPPORT NOR

OPPOSE

TEND TO OPPOSE

STRONGLY OPPOSE

DON’T KNOW

Support 33%

Oppose 24%

Support 31%

Oppose 25%

Major cities

English counties

+9 +6

Some evidence we are actually getting happier Fairly or very satisfied with life overall

1975 2014

94%

86%

In conclusion - change is coming (as always)

Technology changes fast

Values change relatively slowly

Transparency and lack of trust…

Greatest human needs unchanged

Things aren’t so bad

Good luck!

[email protected]

020 7347 3000

Thank you

Perceptions, Reality and Devolution

News & Politics

Transcript of Perceptions, Reality and Devolution