Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre– Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems

Critical thresholds and transformationsin social-ecological systems

Per OlssonStockholm Resilience Centre

Critical transitions or regime shifts

1

2

• overfishing, coastal eutrophication

• phosphorous accum- ulation in soil and mud

• fire prevention

3

state shift

• disease, hurricane

• flooding, warming, overexploitation of predators

• good rains, continu- ous heavy grazing

coral dominance

clear water

grassland

4

algal dominance

turbid water

shrub-bushland

Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services(Desirable) (Undesirable)

Regional-scale collapse -connectivity and spatial resilience

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f pat

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www.regimeshifts.org

Thresholds of Potential Concern (TPC)

Aborigines arrive inAustralia

Beginningof agriculture

Great Europeancivilisations:Greek, Roman

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

First migration of fully modern humans

out of Africa

Migrations offully modern humans

from South Asia to Europe

Humanity’s period of grace– the last 10000 years

Understanding transformationsin social-ecological systems

Preparing Navigating thetransition

Stabilizing

Window ofopportunity

a)

b)

Olsson et al 2004, Olsson et al 2006

Key factors for SEStransformations

• Experimentation and innovation• Shadow networks• Opportunity context (i.e. the role of

crisis)• Institutional entrepreneurs (the role

of individuals)• Paradigms shifts

Combining social-ecological,socio-technological, socio-political

perspectivesTransitions, Resilience and Governance:

Linking Technological, Ecological and PoliticalSystems (Special issue in E&S with Andy

Sterling and Adrian Smith)

Combining Transition, SocialInnovation, and Resilience Theories

To increase our understanding oftransformations in Social-Ecological systems

The role of resilience thinking

• add the ecological dimension of transformation– addressing only the social dimension will not be sufficient

to guide society toward sustainable outcomes.– societies may undergo major transformations without

improving their capacity to learn from, respond to, andmanage environmental feedback from dynamic ecosystems

• for example, a systemic shift to biofuels might slowclimate change but lead to destructive land-use changeand biodiversity loss

– can lead to further ecological degradation, regime shiftsand lock-in traps in social-ecological systems that aredifficult to get out of

Ongoing and future activities

• Agency and leadership strategies for innovationand transformation of social-ecological systems(manuscript in review)

–Experiments, Innovation and Opportunity Context,Institutional Entrepreneurs

• Tipping towards sustainability: emerging pathwaysof transformation (manuscript in progress)

–Framing ongoing change

Ongoing and future activities

• Innovation and transformation in Social-Ecological Systems (workshop series, PhDCourse)

– Links to planetary boundaries and missinginstitutions at global level

• Crossing the chasm - crisis, opportunity, andtransformation (panel at Resilience 2011, withJohn Thompson)

– Crisis as triggers for large-scale transformations

Thank You!

Social-ecological innovation

• New strategies, concepts, ideas and organizationsthat enhance the capacity of ecosystems to generate(bundles of) services

• have the potential to build resilience in SES, increasehuman well-being, and reduce vulnerability to present andfuture challenges

• can enhance the fit between ecosystems and governancesystems and help can help break self-reinforcingfeedbacks, unlock social-ecological systems’ lock-ins,escape traps and move to new trajectories ofsustainability

Olsson and Galaz in review

The Regime Shifts Database

• To provide a high quality synthesis of different types ofregime shifts documented in social-ecological systems

• Focus: Regime shifts that have large impacts onecosystem services – ie matter to people

• Users:– Research projects on regime shifts

– Resource for students and practitioners

– Resilience assessments in particular areas

Outline

Part I Understanding andidentifying critical transitions

Part II Detecting and monitoringthresholds

Part III Transformations andpurposefully steer awayfrom thresholds and connectto the resource base

Combined perspectives and social-ecological system analysis

• Initiatives for large-scale transformations- New Green Economy

- Green revolution in Africa

- Energy and Biofuels

• Networks for change- Rework the World www.reworktheworld.org- World Ecological Forum www.worldecologicalforum.com- Baltic Sea Action Group http://en.bsag.fi

• Navigating transformations - planetarystewardship, sustainability and human well-being