Perú: Economic and Political Overview - LarrainVial · PDF filePerú: Economic...
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Transcript of Perú: Economic and Political Overview - LarrainVial · PDF filePerú: Economic...
Perú: Economic and Political Overview
Economy Growth
GDP: Quarterly Growth - Develop vs. Emerging vs. Perú
Latin-American GDP
Economy Growth
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Gross Domestic ProductMM. S/.
Index
In 2010, Perú grew 8.78% explained bydomestic demand and exports
In the period 2000-2010, Mining GDPgrew 55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mining GDP
Perú GDP Mining GDP
GDP Per-Capita
Perú has increased in 146% its GDP percapita from 2000 - 2010
Chile has the highest GDP pc. In theregion and Bolivia the lowest
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011*
GDP Per-Capita (US$)
* Estimate
* Estimate
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
GDP Per-Capita Latam
GDP Per-Capita Perú GDP Per-Capita Chile GDP Per-Capita Colombia
GDP Per-Capita Bolivia GDP Per-Capita Ecuador
Fiscal Summary
Fuente: BCRP, IPE
Economy Forecast
GDP Growth Rate (Var. %)
*Projected Source: BCRP
Growth will be driven by increased private investment
Economy Risk
Sovereign Bonds Spread
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Ene-00 Abr-01 Jul-02 Oct-03 Ene-05 Abr-06 Jul-07 Oct-08 Ene-10EMBI LATINO EMBI PERU EMBI CHILESource: Bloomberg
Inflation
Since 2002, Perú has an explicit Inflation Targeting Policy. 2% +/-1%
Source: BCRP
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Consumer Price Index (Var.%)
Free Trade Agreements
FTA Negotiating
Country
Australia
New Zealand
Mexico
Japan
P4
FTA on Agenda
Country
Morocco
South Africa
Turkey
Russia
Panama
India
Hong Kong
Caribean Zone
Source: COMEX
FTA Signed
Country Date of sign
Tailand November 2005
United States April 2006
Chile August 2006
Canada May 2008
Singapur May 2008
China April 2009
EU May 2010
EFTA July 2010
South Corea November 2010
Presidential elections
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Alejandro Toledo Keiko Fujimori Luis Castañeda Ollanta Humala Pedro Kuczynski
26%
19%17%
15%
9%
Voting Intentions
Source: Ipsos Apoyo / published on March 13, 2011
Perú: Mining
Perú: World's leading producer
Production Ranking 2010
METAL Latin-American World
Silver 1 1
Zinc 1 2
Tin 1 3
Mercury 1 3
Lead 1 4
Gold 1 6
Copper 2 2
Source: USGS
Impact of mining
GDP
PURCHASE OF SUPPLIES
EXPORTS TAXES
Investment in social development
Profit
Investment Public Expenditure
Fiscal Deficit
Public Debt
Trade Balance
Jobs
Mining Production
Major Metals Production
In 2010, major metals production decreased but mining exports increased
Mining Production vs. Exports
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Copper (FMT) Zinc (FMT) Gold (KG) Silver (KG) Total Exports US$ MM.
Major Metals Production
Copper
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Copper (FMT) Price
Gold
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Gold (KG) Price
Silver
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Silver (KG) Price
Zinc
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Zinc (FMT) Price
Mining: Current Operations
Gold Production 2010
Silver Production 2010
La Zanja
Cerro Corona
Mining: The Potential
1% of the territory is carrying out exploration and explotation
11.5% of the national territory has been granted as a mining
concession
0.78% of national territory is destined to the extraction of
minerals in the operational phase
Only…
Mining: The Potential
Annoucements of Investment Projects by sectors (MM. US$)
Source: BCRP
Sector 2010 2011 2012 Total
Mining 3,477 6,102 7,519 17,098
Hydrocarbons 2,446 2,078 2,186 6,711
Electricity 828 1,487 1,801 4,116
Industrial 1,490 1,289 1,003 3,782
Infrastructure 2,437 1,208 796 4,440
Other Sectors 2,031 1,491 793 4,315
Total 12,709 13,655 14,098 40,462
Map of major mining projects
ExpansionsW/ EIA approved or constructionW/ EIA submitted or assessment
Exploration
Mining Projects (Expansions)
Southern PerúEstimated Total Investment
US$ 600 Millions
Compañía Minera AntaminaEstimated Total Investment
US$ 1,100 Millions
Votorantim CajamarquillaEstimated Total Investment
US$ 500 Millions
Mining Projects (Expansions)
Shougang Hierro PerúEstimated Total Investment
US$ 1,000 Millions
Sociedad Minera El BrocalEstimated Total Investment
US$ 238 Millions
Sociedad Minera Cerro VerdeEstimated Total Investment
US$ 1,500 Millions
Mining Projects
Tía MaríaEstimated Total Investment
US$ 950 Millions
Arequipa
Copper and molybdenum deposit
Mining Projects
Junín
ToromochoEstimated Total Investment
US$ 2,200 Millions
Silver, copper and molyb. deposit Potencial: 150k MT per day
Mining Projects (Feasibility stage)
Moquegua
QuellavecoEstimated Total Investment
US$ 2,200 Millions
Copper deposit Operation start: 2013
Mining Projects (Feasibility stage)
Piura
Rio BlancoEstimated Total Investment
US$ 1,440 Millions
Copper deposit Operation start: To be defined
Mining Projects (Exploration)
Cusco
AntapaccayEstimated Total Investment
US$ 700 Millions
Copper deposit Exploration has started in 2010
Mining Projects (Exploration)
Apurimac
Las BambasEstimated Total Investment
US$ 1,500 Millions
Copper deposit Exploration start: To be defined
BUENAVENTURA
La Zanja
Company overviewtowards 60 years in mining
Strong portafolio
of mining projects
At least 70% of
revenues from
precious metals
Growing gold
production from
direct operations
Listed in the NYSE
(BVN) and the Lima
Stock Exchange
(BVN.LM)
Strong cash
position / balance
sheet
Experienced team
No hedges
Focused in
explorations43.65% stake in Yanacocha
19.26% stake in Cerro Verde
49.00% stake in Chucapaca
Attractive Equity
Investments
Financial Track Record
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Buenaventura & Affiliates Revenues & EBITDA Breakdown
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Main Operations
NAME METALSTYPE
(Open Pit / Underground)
Uchucchacua Silver, Lead, Zinc Underground
Orcopampa Gold, Silver Underground
Poracota Gold, Silver Underground
Julcani Silver, Copper, Lead Underground
Recuperada Silver, Lead, Zinc Underground
Antapite Gold, Silver Underground
Shila-Paula Gold, Silver Underground
El Brocal (Colquijirca, Marcapunta)
Zinc, Lead, Silver, Copper
Open Pit
La Zanja Gold, Silver Open Pit
Yanacocha (43.65%) Gold, Silver Open Pit
Cerro Verde (19.26%) Copper, Molybdenum Open Pit
DIR
ECT
OP
ERA
TIO
NS
AFF
ILIA
TES
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Gold, Silver, Copper and Zinc Equity Production
* Estimated 35
Reserves & Resources
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Location of Exploration
Prospects
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Trapiche
Chucapaca
Hualgayoc
El Faique
Colquemayo
La Joya
Pachuca / Real del Monte *
* 100 Km north of Mexico
City, in the state of
Hidalgo.
El Faique
TrapicheBreapampa
Chucapaca
Exploration
projects
La Zanja
Uchucchacua Colquijirca
Antapite
Orcopampa
Mining districtsTantahuatay
Mallay Marcapunta
Development
projects
Julcani / Recuperada
PaulaPoracota
Colquemayo
Lima
La Joya
Hualgayoc
Cerro Verde
Yanacocha
EXPLORATIONS
Focused on precious metals
Solid exploration portfolio
Exploring inside Peru & Latinamerica
Share risk through jointventure
OPERATIONS
Improving mining operations
Improving metallurgical process
Incorporating chemical process
Assuring power supply
M & A
Mainly gold and preciousmetals
Junior companies
Located in Peru & Latinamerica
Controlling interests
Creating Value Through…
SUSTAINABILITYTaking care of environmental
issues
Improving community
relations
Good corporate governance
38SAFETY IN EVERYTHING WE DO
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Shareholders Strategy
BVN has not issued
new equity for 15
years
BVN LISTED
NYSE
Major mining properties & projectsin Cajamarca
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Shareholders Structure
NAME INTEREST
Institutional Investors 55 %
Benavides Family 27 %
Peruvian Pension Funds (AFP’s) 12 %
Others 6 %
OUTSTANDING SHARES
254,442,328
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