Peoria report 2 talk about trump
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Transcript of Peoria report 2 talk about trump
THE TALK ABOUT TRUMP (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SECOND WAVE OF PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE ANNOUNCEMENTS)
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD & ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN
RELEASE DATE: AUGUST 4, 2015
Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of
the presidential candidates and their campaign messages.
Candidates(Descending order)
Total MentionsMay 16 – July 19
All Announced Candidates(share of voice, in %)
Announced Republicans Only
(share of voice, in %)
Donald Trump 7,104,502 32.5 46.6
Hillary Clinton 3,855,984 17.7 --
Bernie Sanders 2,482,282 10.9 --
Jeb Bush 1,633,109 7.5 10.7
Ted Cruz 1,271,561 5.8 8.3
Scott Walker 983,691 4.5 6.5
Rand Paul 669,452 3.1 4.4
Marco Rubio 655,452 3.0 4.3
Chris Christie 617,839 2.8 4.1
Rick Perry 549,047 2.5 3.6
Mike Huckabee 426,690 2.0 2.8
Lindsey Graham 340,765 1.6 2.2
Bobby Jindal 312,055 1.4 2.0
Rick Santorum 259,042 1.2 1.7
Ben Carson 256,121 1.2 1.7
Martin O’Malley 189,386 0.9 --
Carly Fiorina 102,289 0.5 0.7
Jim Webb 90,369 0.4 --
Lincoln Chafee 71,293 0.3 --
George Pataki 70,320 0.3 0.5
TRUMP DOMINATES
Note: Governor John Kasich had not yet announced his candidacy. He is excluded from the above analysis
TRUMP’S SEVEN TOWERS
Candidates Announcement Date
Rick Santorum May 27
George Pataki May 28
Martin O’Malley May 30
Lindsey Graham June 1
Lincoln Chafee June 3
Rick Perry June 4
Jeb Bush June 15
Donald Trump June 16
Bobby Jindal June 24
Chris Christie June 30
Jim Webb July 2
Scott Walker July 13
Trump Towers (Seven Spikes in Trump Talk)
Spike Date
Announcement Date June 16
Univision Cancels Miss USA Broadcast
June 25
NBC Severs Ties June 29
Macy’s Severs Ties July 1
Trump Rally in Phoenix July 11
Trump Comments on “El Chapo” July 13
Trump Comments on Sen. McCain July 18
TRUMP MUFFLES ANNOUNCEMENT ECHOES
Candidates (In announcement order)
Announcement Echo Dates Total Mentions During Echo
Share of Voice During Echo (in %)
Rick Santorum May 27 - May 29 39,104 25
George Pataki May 28 – May 29 19,627 17
Martin O’Malley May 30 – May 31 50,594 48
Lindsey Graham June 1 – June 2 52,466 43
Lincoln Chafee June 3 – June 4 28,190 11
Rick Perry June 4 – June 6 154,449 52
Jeb Bush June 15 – June 20 404,550 20
Donald Trump June 16 – June 22 1,517,570 76
Bobby Jindal June 24 – June 28 146,969 15
Chris Christie June 30 – July 3 173,405 12
Jim Webb July 2 – July 3 30,524 5
Scott Walker July 13 – July 18 337,199 17
ESPECIALLY BUSH
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rick Santorum George Pataki Martin O'Malley Lindsey Graham Lincoln Chafee Rick Perry Jeb Bush Donald Trump Bobby Jindal Chris Christie Jim Webb Scott Walker
Share of Voice
3 Days Before Announcement Day 3 Days After
WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
Candidates(In announcement order)
Mainstream MediaMay 16-July 19
Social Media
May 16-July 19
Rick Santorum 4 2
George Pataki 2 <1
Martin O’Malley
4 1
Lindsey Graham
6 2
Lincoln Chafee 2 <1
Rick Perry 6 4
Jeb Bush 25 12
Donald Trump 26 61
Bobby Jindal 3 3
Chris Christie 8 5
Jim Webb 1 1
Scott Walker 12 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Rick
Santorum
George
Pataki
Martin
O'Malley
Lindsey
Graham
Lincoln
Chafee
Rick Perry J eb Bush Donald
Trump
Bobby
J indal
Chris
Christie
J im Webb Scott
Walker
Mainstream Media vs. Social Media
Share of Voice (%)
Mainstream Media Social Media
TRUMP ON TOP? ECHO CONVERSION RATE
Candidates (In announcement order)
Total Mentions (May 16 – July 19)
Chatter Volume (# of mentions
above/below mean # of mentions, May
16 – July 19)
Total Website Shares in 63 days (May 16 – July 19)
63-day Echo Conversion Rate (Total
Website Shares/Total Mentions, in %)
Rick Santorum 259,042 -759,409 6,017 2.3
George Pataki 70,320 -948,131 523 0.7
Martin O’Malley 189,386 -829,065 3,705 2.0
Lindsey Graham 340,765 -677,686 n/a n/a
Lincoln Chafee 71,293 -947,158 153 0.2
Rick Perry 549,047 -469,404 7,336 1.3
Jeb Bush 1,633,109 614,658 5,706 0.3
Donald Trump 7,104,502 6,086,051 14,648 0.2
Bobby Jindal 312,055 -706,396 7,066 2.3
Chris Christie 617,839 -400,612 n/a n/a
Jim Webb 90,369 -928,180 456 0.5
Scott Walker 983,691 -162,315 6,763 0.7
BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Total Mentions
Mentions Per Day
Trump Pumped Up the Volume
Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)
All Candidates for Dates
Total Mentions
Mentions per Day
Before Trump (3/15-6/15)
19,124,790 ~ 212K
After Trump (6/16-7/19)
15,600,595 ~ 473K
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Tota
l Num
ber of M
entions
in T
housa
nds
Total Mentions and Share of Voice
Before Trump (3/15-6/15) and After Trump (6/16-7/19)
BT - Total Mentions BT - Share of Voice (%) AT - Total Mentions AT - Share of Voice (%)
BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)
First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
RickSantorum
GeorgePataki
MartinO'Malley
LindseyGraham
LincolnChafee
Rick Perry Jeb Bush DonaldTrump
BobbyJindal
ChrisChristie
Jim Webb ScottWalker
Ted Cruz Rand Paul HillaryClinton
MarcoRubio
BernieSanders
BenCarson
CarlyFiorina
MikeHuckabee
Positi
ve Sh
are
-Neg
ative
Share
(%)
Net Sentiment Before Trump (3/15-6/15) and After Trump (6/16-7/19)
Before Trump After Trump
BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)
Trump “Mud-Slingers”
Trump “Clean
Hands”
Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, andDonald Trump
Ted Cruz and Rand
Paul
First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)
All Candidates & Campaign Money Mentions for Dates
Total Mentions
Mentions per Day
Before Trump (3/15-6/15)
675,624 7,506
After Trump (6/16-7/19)
377,026 11,425
All Candidates & ImmigrationMentions for Dates
Total Mentions
Mentions per Day
Before Trump (3/15-6/15)
18,458,071 205,089
After Trump (6/16-7/19)
14,620,501 443,045
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Total Mentions
Mentions Per Day
Candidates & Immigration
Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Total Mentions
Mentions Per Day
Candidates & Campaign Money
Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)
BEFORE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET
Candidates (In announcement order, second wave)
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Period(March 15-June 15)
Tweet Share
s
Rick SantorumToday I announce my candidacy for President of the United States! Join me at http://t.co/zj89cNMaUY and
let's take back America!291
George PatakiIf someone chooses a path that's different than mine, we should respect it as opposed to
mocking...@Caitlyn_Jenner http://t.co/qNwmOMAVVU79
Martin O’MalleyGood to hear from you after all these years, @SarahPalinUSA. There's still room in GOP primary for another
entrant! https://t.co/AhjD8DNbOn652
Lindsey Graham n/a n/a
Lincoln Chafee Today I am formally entering the race for the Democratic nomination for President #Chafee2016 117
Rick Perry Let us be worthy of their sacrifice. https://t.co/fVBUxSM5s4 #DDay71 http://t.co/aWXVhjSW59 399
Jeb Bush I'm running for President of the United States. I will run with heart. I will run to win. http://t.co/Z3wh8ECPUl 1,378
Donald Trump .@FloydMayweather Good luck tonight Floyd. 891
Bobby Jindal As long as I’m Governor, we will fight to protect religious liberty and not apologize for it. 251
Chris ChristieWhat. You thought I would let everyone else have all the fun? This is called #OwningIt
https://t.co/0f1PxS6IFJ (h/t @IJReview)284
Jim WebbPolitical pundits ask "can you raise a billion dollars?" Other people ask, "can you lead?"
http://t.co/RtPImheLLZ #LeadershipYouCanTrust62
Scott WalkerDid you know, Americans will spend more on taxes in 2015 than on food, clothing and housing combined? -
TW http://t.co/wi1fmpYRfS 716
BEFORE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT.
Candidates (In announcement order, first wave)
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Period(March 15-June 15)
Tweet Share
s
Ted Cruz I'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! http://t.co/0UTqaIoytP 13,124
Rand Paul How many retweets can we get? http://t.co/lpzLQCfz0F http://t.co/eo6LzfAoh8 2,537
Hillary ClintonI'm running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion. –H
https://t.co/w8Hoe1pbtC 95,557
Marco Rubio ... I announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America. 2,632
Bernie Sanders Every candidate for president must answer the following questions: http://t.co/7tZnpR3MKg 2,640
Ben Carson I'm in it! 3,286
Carly FiorinaThanks, @chucktodd, for having me on @meetthepress this morning. Btw, check out
http://t.co/m9C6LxE89J . #domaingate464
Mike HuckabeeIslamic Jihad = a rattlesnake. Watch "Rattlesnake" then retweet if you agree http://t.co/3hVWYjm7Sp
http://t.co/ZAB1QEwYva 861
AFTER TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET
Candidates (In announcement order), second wave
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Period(June 16-July 19)
Tweet Share
s
Rick Santorum
RT if you believe marriage is the union of one man and one woman. https://t.co/7mf9mLaZ78 #Rick2016 530
George PatakiIt should be painfully obvious that a government that endorses the credo "Death to America" is a
danger to our safety & security. #IranDeal 139
Martin O’Malley
I’m pissed. We're asking what it will take to stop this violence? We must stop asking: we must act now, as a nation. #CharlestonShooting 312
Lindsey Graham
At the heart of @realDonaldTrump statement is a lack of respect for those who have served - a disqualifying characteristic to be president 408
Lincoln Chafee Congratulations to Supreme Court on today's good ruling for marriage equality! #chafee2016 94
Rick Perry Happy 4th of July! http://t.co/Uv5HAD7ROm 1,865
Jeb BushEnough with the slanderous attacks. @SenJohnMcCain and all our veterans - particularly POWs have
earned our respect and admiration. 1,352
Donald TrumpI am officially running for President of the United States. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain
https://t.co/Ct0lNu7kz0 10,980
Bobby Jindal After Donald Trump spends six years in a POW camp, he can weigh in on John McCain's service 1,522
Chris ChristieA hat trick by New Jersey's own Carli Lloyd! What an amazing leader she has been for Team USA. Go
USA! Go Scarlet Knights! #jerseypride 422
Jim WebbJIM WEBB ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT http://t.co/H2iXNN9kdB -Staff
http://t.co/zdi7vM5YvQ 410
Scott Walker We should defund Planned Parenthood across the country. RT if you stand with me. -SW #Walker16 1,801
AFTER TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT.
Candidates (In announcement order, first wave)
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Period(June 16-July 19)
Tweet Share
s
Ted Cruz RETWEET if you agree that sanctuary cities are wrong! https://t.co/YYB1zkXePi 1,389
Rand PaulMy plan is the largest tax cut in history, returning nearly $2 trillion to American families in the first 10
years. https://t.co/A4qea61pn0 1,755
Hillary ClintonThe boys are right. We need everyone's help to get the planet moving in the right direction.
http://t.co/rNQSBSmgJ8 #action1D57,879
Marco RubioAmerica’s POWs deserve much better than to have their service questioned by the offensive rantings of
Donald Trump1,058
Bernie SandersThe Charleston church killings are a tragic reminder of the ugly stain of racism that still taints our nation.
http://t.co/3R4zKLqq2q 6,136
Ben CarsonI'm urging #Congress to eliminate every last dime of #PlannedParenthood funding! Join me, sign the
petition here: https://t.co/alZGjf8BE2 2,338
Carly FiorinaHere's my full statement on today's tragic and outrageous Planned Parenthood news.
https://t.co/cs8zUmUNNa 403
Mike HuckabeeThe Supreme Court can no more repeal the laws of nature and nature's God on marriage than it can the
laws of gravity.832
IS TRUMP LEADING?
Candidates(rank order)
SOV (%)
Donald Trump 41.5
Ted Cruz 11.4
Jeb Bush 10.9
Scott Walker 6.6
Marco Rubio 5.6
Rand Paul 5.3
Chris Christie 4.6
Rick Perry 3.1
Mike Huckabee 2.8
Ben Carson 2.2
Bobby Jindal 1.8
Lindsey Graham 1.8
Rick Santorum 1.3
Carly Fiorina 0.7
George Pataki 0.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al W
eigh
ted
Men
tions
Share of Voice
Republican Candidates
March 15 - J uly 19, 2015
First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
Candidates(rank order)
RTs (%)
George Pataki 2.00
Ben Carson 1.65
Carly Fiorina 0.72
Bobby Jindal 0.71
Rand Paul 0.59
Rick Santorum 0.56
Rick Perry 0.53
Mike Huckabee 0.37
Ted Cruz 0.35
Scott Walker 0.27
Marco Rubio 0.26
Lindsey Graham 0.22
Jeb Bush 0.18
Donald Trump 0.17
Chris Christie 0.11
IS TRUMP LEADING?
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al W
eigh
ted
RTs
per T
otal
Wei
ghte
d Tw
itter
Men
tions
Retweets of Top Campaign's Tweet
March 15 - J uly 19
First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
IS TRUMP LEADING?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Tota
l Num
ber o
f Tw
itter
Men
tions
Milli
ons
Axis Title
Twitter Mentions by Period
March 15-J uly 19
T1: Twitter Mentions T2: Twitter Mentions T3: Twitter Mentions T4: Twitter Mentions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Tota
l Num
ber o
f Ret
weet
s of T
op C
ampa
ign
Twee
ts
Hund
reds
Retweets of Top Campaign Tweet by Period
March 15-J uly 19
T1: RTs T2: RTs T3: RTs T4: RTs
First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
GSPM ECHO RATING MARCH 15 – JULY 19, 2015
Candidates(In announcement order)
GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 123-day period)
Candidates(In announcement order)
GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 123-day period)
Ted Cruz 9 Martin O’Malley 1
Rand Paul 5 Lindsey Graham 1
Hillary Clinton 9 Lincoln Chafee 1
Marco Rubio 4 Rick Perry 2
Bernie Sanders 8 Jeb Bush 6
Ben Carson 3 Donald Trump 7
Carly Fiorina 1 Bobby Jindal 2
Mike Huckabee 2 Chris Christie 3
Rick Santorum 3 Jim Webb 1
George Pataki 1 Scott Walker 5
QUESTIONS?Graduate School of Political Management
@GSPMGWU
Michael Cornfield Lara BrownAssociate Professor Associate [email protected]
John BrandtMedia [email protected]
Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs
Pete Eskew D.J. WaldowDirector of East Coast Ops. Director of [email protected] [email protected]