People, Skills, Jobs: What’s Around the Corner for New ... · People, Skills, Jobs: What’s...
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People, Skills, Jobs: What’s Around theCorner for New Brunswick?
Michael Haan, Jacob Travis, and Catherine Holtmann
New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data, and TrainingUniversity of New Brunswick
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Main Points1. Assumptions
2. Challenges facing New Brunswick
3. The two sources of labour demand:o Replacement demando Expansion demand
4. Replacement Demand: many New Brunswickers will soon exit our labour force. o It will be difficult to replace them.
1. We don’t have enough young and middle-aged people. 2. We will need to aggressively recruit externally.
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Assumption #1
Every labour market exit requires an entrant
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Assumption #2We will see more of this:
And less of this among 65-plus year olds:
And less of this:
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Assumption #3 Out-migration won’t accelerate.
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Assumption #4 Immigration levels won’t change.
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Challenges FacingNew Brunswick
Three big challenges:
1. Aging populationo 2011 was the year the first baby boomers turned 65.
2. Youth out-migration
3. Imperfect labour market informationo We know little about vacancies, especially in the future.
2013 Speech from the Throne.
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Our Current Labour Market Current population is 620,000 people age 15 and over.
Roughly 395,000 in labour force (employed and unemployed).
356,000 are employed; 38,500 are not.
Current unemployment rate is around 9.8%
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Future Replacement Demand in New Brunswick
Demand is stimulated by: Expansion demand New jobs through new business.
Replacement demand Retirements A surplus of out-migration over in-migration.
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Aging Populations.
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Retirements, 2011 to 2021
Source: File created by M.Haan & J.Travis, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census of Population, Statistics Canada, 2014. Note: Counts include those individuals who are projected to participate in the labour force.
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Migratory Trends of NB Population, 2011-2021
Source: File created by M.Haan & J.Travis, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census of Population, Statistics Canada, 2014. Note: Counts include those individuals who are projected to participate in the labour force.
0
2000
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In-MigrantsOut-Migrants
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Sources ofLabour Supply inNew Brunswick
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Labour Supply.
Figure 1 High School and University/College School Leavers in New Brunswick, 2011- 2021
Source: File created by M.Haan & J.Travis, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census of Population, Statistics Canada, 2014 and
1999 to 2012 Postsecondary enrolments and graduates, Statistics Canada 2014. Note: Counts include those individuals who are projected to participate in the labour market.
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Immigration Trends In 2012-2013, we admitted roughly 4,000 immigrants. This is more than the entire 1980s.
Roughly 2/3 are staying and doing well. Most are working. Unemployment rates are well below those for New
Brunswick overall.
Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2013004/t324-eng.htm
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The Shortfall Between 2011-2021, we project:
Supply School leavers 52,560 International workers 11,770
64,330Demand
Retirements: 79,545 Migration imbalance: 24,000
103,545
Shortfall ~40,000
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Where WillReplacement Jobs Be?
Source: File created by M.Haan & J.Travis, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census of Population, Statistics Canada, 2014. Note: Counts include those individuals who are projected to participate in the labour force.
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Summary Shortages will occur in every economic region in New
Brunswick (though more some than in others). Fredericton-Oromocto will have the smallest imbalance.
Employers need to replace retirees for these jobs to exist. Not replacing workers ≠ Saving money.
There is considerable mismatch between skills and jobs. We have a lot of work to do to prepare future workers for
future opportunities. These projections do not include expansion demand. Expansion is planned.
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Conclusion: Meeting Labour Market Demands
We need to:
1. Increase the number of University/College enrolments in the province for occupations that are needed.
2. Retain the workers that are lost through out-migration.
3. Attract more individuals through in-migration and international immigration.